Thursday, July 7, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 9.5 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 9.1 secs from 168 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 6.6 secs from 34 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.1 secs from 255 degrees. Wind north at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 66.6 (Topanga 103), 61.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.7 (Del Mar 153), 66.9 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 9.2 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.2 secs from 263 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 17.5 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 6.1 secs from 277 degrees. Water temp 70.3 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 9.6 secs from 292 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 56.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 51.1 (Pt Reyes 46013), 56.8 (46026), 57.4 (SF Bar 142), 58.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (7/7) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high and warbled and sloppy and mushed with onshore wind and warbled. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and fairly clean early but small and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high and clean but soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and mushed with no wind but a fair amount of warble intermixed. Central Orange County had sets at maybe waist high and weak and soft but somewhat lined up and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh to maybe waist high on the peak and clean and soft early. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and soft and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh high and textured from northeast wind. The South Shore was small with a few thigh to waist high sets and clean and weak. The East Shore had east windswell at thigh to waist high and nearly chopped from from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (7/7) Hawaii and California were getting no swell of interest. Beyond swell is being generated under New Zealand. A gale developed tracking east under New Zealand on Sun-Tues (7/5) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed east over a modest sized area. And another developed Tues-Thurs (7/7) with 28-32 ft seas aimed east-northeast over a decent sized area. Some swell is likely to result. And another gale is to develop in the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (7/11) with 26-29 ft seas aimed well northeast. And maybe another is to develop just east of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (7/14) with up to 37 ft seas aimed east. So there's something to look forward to.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (7/7) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Hurricane Bonnie was tracking west-northwest positioned about 400 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 80 kts and seas estimated at 33 ft. Bonnie previously moved into the Southern CA swell window on Wed (7/6) at 5 AM with winds 85 kts and seas 45 ft on the 152 degree path to Pt Dume tracking almost due west and 1,000 nmiles away. Given the steep westward track it seems there's low odds of any meaningful swell reaching up into Southern CA. But if swell were to arrive it would hit Fri (7/8) at sunrise from 155 degrees.
Otherwise no tropical weather systems of interest were being tracked.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (7/9) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds build some at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No windswell production is forecast.
- Sat (7/10) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for North Ca and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No windswell production is forecast.
- Sun (7/11) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts nearshore for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
- Mon (7/12) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to set up early with 25-30 kts northwest winds over Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of Pt Arena and 10 kt northwest winds for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient shifts north with 25-30 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts from Pt Arena southward early. Windswell fading some.
- Tues (7/13) northwest winds are forecast at 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10 kts for the remainder of North and Central CA if not south at 5 kts from Pt Reyes southward. No change in the afternoon. Windswell fading.
- Wed (7/14) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts from Pt Arena northward and northwest 10 kts south of there. Limited windswell production possible.
- Thurs (7/15) northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell small and fading.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (7/7) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing northeast over the Central South Pacific at 150 kts while merging with the northern branch of the jet forming a trough offering good support for gale development. East of there the jet was ridging hard south pushing over Antarctica offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to slowly push east into Friday (7/8) while fading offering some support for gale development. By Sat (7/9) another small trough is to start building well southeast of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds pushing northeast offering good support for gale development and pushing hard north into Sun (7/10) while starting to pinch off. Beyond 72 hours the same trough is to persist while tracking east to the Southeast Pacific on Wed (7/13) before fading perhaps offering some limited support for gale development. On Wed (7/13) a ridge is to be building in the west and sweeping east into Thurs (7/14) down at 68S actively suppressing support for gale development.
Swell is tracking northeast towards Hawaii and California originating from a gale that was under New Zealand (see 1st New Zealand Gale below). And another gale developed under New Zealand with swell from it propagating northeast too (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
1st New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (7/3) a gale developed tracking east from under New Zealand with 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 165E aimed east. In the evening west-southwest fetch continued at 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 53.25S 165.5E aimed east. On Mon AM fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas up to 36 ft at 54.25S 178.75E aimed east-northeast. Fetch continued east in the evening at 45-50 kts from the southwest over a tiny area with seas 34 ft at 54S 166.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (7/5) from 40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.5S 155W aimed east-northeast. The gale to dissipate quickly from there. Small swell to result for Hawaii and California.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/10) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5 ft). On Mon (7/11) swell is to build to 1.6 ft @ 17- 18 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/12) from 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early and being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 196 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 210-211 degrees
2nd New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (7/4) a gale started developing just southwest of New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 51.5S 162.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (7/5) fetch was building to 45 kts embedded in a larger area of 40+ kt southwest winds with seas building to 32 ft at 52S 178E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was falling south hard at 45-50 kts with a secondary fetch of 40 kt southwest winds building over a solid area just west of it producing 30 ft seas at 56S 174E and 34 ft seas at 57.5S 173.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (7/6) the 2 fetch areas consolidated resulting in a single fetch of southwest winds at 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas 34 ft at 52.5S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 35-40 kts southwest winds were present with seas 32 ft at 56.25S 170W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/7) southwest winds are to be fading from 35 kts over a large area aimed northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 54.25S 168.5W. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 54.25S 158.5W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (7/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/14) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/15) 1.3 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell building underneath. Swell Direction: 204-210 degrees
North CA: Rough data suggests swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell building underneath. Swell Direction: 202-210 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific on Sun AM (7/10) with 35-50 kt southwest winds over a solid area with seas building from 27 ft at 49S 165W aimed northeast. Fetch is to lift northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas to 29 ft at 46.25S 159W aimed northeast. On Mon AM 97/11) a broad fetch of 30-40 kt south winds is forecast with seas 27-28 ft at 42.5S 155W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44S 150W aimed northeast. The gale is to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.
Also on Wed AM (7/13) a new gael is to start building just east of Southern New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds over a solid area with seas building from 27 ft at 47S 178W aimed northeast. Fetch building to 45 kts from the west in the evening with seas 35 ft at 47.75S 175W. On Thurs AM (7/14) west fetch continues at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 48.75S 165W aimed east. The gale is to be fading from there.
Massive Kelvin Wave Starting to Erupt Near Galapagos
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggesting Small La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/7) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA centered on the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies starting to fade some but still solid in coverage on 7/8 then losing intensity but not coverage (still filling the KWGA) and holding through the end of the model run on 7/14.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/6) A modest Active MJO signal was indicated today building into the West KWGA. The statistical model indicates a solid Active signal is to be building on day 5 of the model filling the KWGA continuing on day 10 then fading alot on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving weakly into the West KWGA today and holding position and strength unchanged through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/7) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the Maritime Continent and is to push east to the West Pacific while fading to very weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggest the same thing but only making it to the East Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/5) The Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was pushing over Ecuador today with a modest Active signal developing over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) gone on 7/9 with a modest Active Phase tracking east over the KWGA then moving to the Central Pacific and into Central America on 8/3. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building moving into the KWGA on 8/8 and almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 8/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/6) A solid Inactive MJO Phase was mostly east of the KWGA today with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA mostly from 165E and points east of there. East anomalies are to hold through 7/11 with west anomalies trying to build over the West KWGA but not making any progress past 130E. East anomalies are to fade 7/13-7/20 then rebuilding some 7/23 through the end of the model run 8/3 all centered at about 165E. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to try and develop over the East KWGA 7/16 and easing east from there and out of the KWGA by 7/27 producing west anomalies moving into the West KWGA to 150E 7/19-7/24. After that East anomalies are to prevail.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/7 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was past its peak and pushing east but still in the KWGA with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase and associated east anomalies pushing east and fading out on 7/11. A weak Active Phase is developing over the far West KWGA pushing east over the dateline through 7/27 with westerly anomalies developing 7/7-7/23 while pushing over the dateline. Another weak Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 8/2 pushing through the KWGA through 9/19 with west anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA (to 150E) and east anomalies east of 150E. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is forecast beyond through the end of the model run on 9/15 with west anomalies holding west of 150E and east anomalies east of there. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/25 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 160E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 135E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/6. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 150W (previously on the dateline) and are to not retrograde west into the the KWGA beyond 165E in Sept. We are still waiting for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E (where it is now).
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 169E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 177W. The 26 degree isotherm is back at 125W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 170W with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east from there connecting to a pocket of +3-4 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 100W with a finger to 85W and poised to reaching the surface if not breaching it already from 120W and points east of there. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W but getting overrun by the warm water. A massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 100W. It appears warm water is now building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific. One could guess that this is La Ninas last stand. Only previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/2) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. Multiple pockets of positive anomalies were over and north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 1-5N latitude line. No negative anomalies were over the Galapagos anymore. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -0.5 degs limited between Ecuador and 85W and rapidly collapsing. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east to 100W and building some. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building pushing east and squeezing cool water off Ecuador to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/6) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. But a building area of warm water was building nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 150W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. An imbedded pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and nearly indistinguishable from background cool waters. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/6): A thin string of warming water was developing on the equator from Ecuador west to 105W. Neutral temps were west of there. No cooling was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/6) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E and south of the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were building on the equator in the east aligned in a thin but broadening stream from Ecuador to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave starting to erupt over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/7) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.189 from -1.534 (7/5) and had been more or less steady at -1.5 degs since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/7) Today's temps were more or less steady at -0.287 today and peaking at -0.275 on 7/5 and have been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs.
Forecast (7/7) - Temps are to hold at about -0.75 degs through mid-Sept, then starting a steady decline falling to -0.95 in mid-Nov, then making a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.25 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.55 degs July and -0.50 degs in mid-Aug and holding till mid-Oct then falling to -0.75 degs mid-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in mid-Dec and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July and August, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggest a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening the whole time from here forward.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.642 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.582 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.692 in November before rising to -0.574 in Dec and -0.362 degs in Jan and -0.162 in Feb. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/7) the daily index was positive at +4.99 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was fading some at +15.45 today after peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +17.58 today after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table