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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, July 5, 2018 3:33 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.8 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/2 thru Sun 7/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Fabio Swell Hitting SCal
Series of Weak SHemi Swells Pushing North


On Thursday, July 5, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 165 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 159 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.1 secs from 160 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 194 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 183 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 15.9 secs with southwest swell 1.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 199 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temp 59.4 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Thursday (7/5) in North and Central CA surf was flat to knee high and clean and unrideable. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was knee high and clean but weak and unrideable. In Southern California/Ventura surf was waist to near chest high and lined up but with a good amount of texture in the water from onshore wind. In North Orange Co hurricane swell was hitting producing sets in the chest high range and lined up but pretty textured from northwest wind. South Orange Country's best breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up but very weak and crumbled mainly due to low period. Conditions were mostly clean but with some weak surface texture. In North San Diego surf was chest to shoulder high on the bigger sets and lined up but modestly textured from northwest wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with sets waist high and clean. The East Shore was getting decent east windswell with waves shoulder high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (7/5) moderate south swell was still hitting Southern California originating from Hurricane Fabio. Weak background southern hemi swell was hitting Hawaii and unremarkable. A weak gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (7/2) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast. A stronger gale is developed Tues-Wed (7/4) under New Zealand with 35-37 ft seas but all fetch was aimed east. So there's minimal hope. A building pattern targeting the Tasman Sea is to follow Sat-Sun (7/8) then seeping east under New Zealand with a gale tracking in to the Southwest Pacific Mon-Tues (7/10) with 35 ft seas. Windswell is to continue for Hawaii through the weekend and is to start developing for California by the weekend (7/8).


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (7/5) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: Thurs (7/6) weak low pressure was just off the North CA coast causing high pressure to retreat and resulting in no local windswell being produced. Friday (7/6) the low is to lift north and fade off Washington allowing high pressure and the California pressure gradient to try and develop some, but limited to Pt Conception producing north winds there 20-25 kts late maybe making something for Southern CA. That gradient is to build in size on Sat (7/7) with 20 kts north winds up to Cape Mendocino with the core still over Pt Conception at 25 kts. Short period junky windswell likely limited to Central and Southern CA. More of the same is forecast on Sun (7/8). See QuikCASTs for details.

Hawaii: On Thursday (7/5) east fetch is to be fading and sinking in coverage extending 600 nmiles east of the Islands with odds for windswell production fading. The remnants of Tropical Storm Fabio were tracking west-northwest generally towards Hawaii from 1500 nmiles out weakly interacting with high pressure north of Hawaii but not generating significant fetch. More easterly fetch to continue on Fri (7/6) within 800 nmiles east of Hawaii at 15 kts as the remnants of Fabio fade 1400 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii offering no swell production potential. On Sat (7/7) east fetch is to build in coverage connecting from Fabio 1100 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii to the ISlands at 15+ kts offering improved odds for windswell production. On Sun (7/8) easterly fetch is to be fading from 15 kts extending 300 nmiles east of Hawaii with Fabio's remnants fading 800 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii. Windswell still being generated but down from days previous and likely barely rideable. See QuikCASTs for details.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Fabio: On Thursday (7/5) Tropical Storm Fabio was 800 nmiles south-southwest of Los Angeles CA with winds 55 kts tracking west northwest and expected to fade to depression status in 24 hours. Fabio is all but gone. No additional swell production is forecast. Swell from Fabio is hitting Southern CA on Thurs (7/5). By Friday 97/6) it is to be fading from 4 ft @ 12 secs early (4/5 ft face) and smaller by afternoon. Some small swell is to also be produced for exposed east shores of the Hawaiian Islands starting Sat (7/7) peaking in the afternoon at 4.0 ft @ 16 secs (6.5 ft) from 80 degrees. Residuals on Sun (7/8) fading from 3.1 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft) from 85 degrees.

Typhoon Maria: On Thurs AM (7/5) Maria was 1200 nmiles east of the Northern Philippines with winds 80 kts tracking northwest and expected to continue on this track while strengthening, peaking Sat AM (7/7) with winds to 125 kts (144 mph) 900 nmiles east of the northern tip of the Philippines. A slow decay is forecast thereafter with Maria moving midway between the western tip of Japan and Taiwan on Tues (7/10) with winds down to 85 kts. The GFS has Maria moving into China near Shanghai 24 hours later. No recurvature northeast is expected.


California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (7/5) light winds were over nearshore waters of California, forecast building from the north to 15 kts for Pt Conception later. Friday (7/6) light north winds 10 kts are forecast for North CA early building to 15 kts later and 20 kts for Central CA and up to 25 kts for Pt Conception. Saturday the regular summer gradient returns with north winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA and 25 kts for Big Sur down to Pt Conception. Sunday (7/8) north winds continue at 20 kts for the North and Central coasts and up to 25 kts for Pt Conception and continuing into Mon (7/9). Tuesday (7/10) north winds continue at 20 kts for Central CA and up to 25 kts for North CA. Then on Wed (7/11) north winds to fade over extreme North CA from 25 kts and 15 kts early for the rest of North and Central CA fading to 10 kts or less mid-morning. On Thurs (7/12) light winds are expected for all of North and Central CA.

South Pacific

On Thursday (7/5) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was weak and ill formed running generally east on the 62S latitude line over the Southwest Pacific offering no support for gale development then ridging southeast over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a ridge is to also start building in the west later Fri (7/6) pushing into Antarctica and building into Sun (7/8). At that time a bit of a trough is to start building into the Tasman Sea reaching up to 40S offering some support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours stating Mon (7/9) the trough is to start easing east from New Zealand but quickly getting cut off offering little support for gale development there. The ridge in the west is to move east over the Central Pacific and strong pushing into Antarctica. In short, no support for gale development is forecast. And that pattern is to hold into Thurs (7/12).

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (7/5) small swell was radiating north from 2 weak gales previously in the Southeast Pacific (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale and Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale below). Background swell was hitting Hawaii though (see QuikCASTs for details). Also swell from a gale previously under New Zealand was radiate northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sat PM (7/7) a gale is forecast moving into the Tasman Sea from under Tasmania with 35 kt south-southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 45S 148E. On Sun AM (7/8) 35+ kt south winds to continue moving into the Tasman Sea with 30 ft seas at 48S 155E aimed northeast. Fetch is to lift northeast in the evening with 35 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 42S 161E. This system to fade from there. Swell possible for Fiji with filtered energy pushing towards Hawaii.


Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (7/1) a small weak gale started to develop in the Central Pacific producing a fetch of 35 kt southwest winds resulting in a small area of 24 ft seas at 50S 149W. Fetch continued in coverage Mon AM (7/2) at 35 kts from the southwest with seas to 26 ft at 45S 134W aimed east-northeast. Additional 35 kt southwest fetch developed in the evening generating a larger area of 26 ft seas at 45S 125W aimed northeast. This system was tracking east Tues AM (7/3) while moving to the edge of the SCal swell window with southwest winds at 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 44S 120W aimed northeast. The gael to move out of the CA swell window after that. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting targeting California. Better odds for Central America.

Southern CA: Small swell is possible starting Tues (7/10) pushing 2 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees This swell being overridden by swell from another gale in the Southeast Pacific (see below).


Tiny Southeast Pacific Gale
Also on Wed AM (7/4) a tiny gale developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific with 50 kt south winds over a tiny area aimed north with seas to 28 ft at 33S 135W. By The evening fetch was fading fast from 40 kts in pockets aimed north to east with seas 27 ft at 33S 130W. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell is possible radiating north.

Southern CA: Swell arrival expected on Wed (7/11) building to 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (7/12) at 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 200 degrees


New Zealand Gale
Of more interest was a broad gale that developed south of New Zealand on Tues AM (7/3) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 35 ft at 58S 155E (217 degs CA) and shadowed by New Zealand relative to HI). In the evening southwest fetch held at 40 kts with seas 36 ft at 58S 165E (213 degrees CA and unshadowed for NCal but shadowed by Tahiti for SCal). Swell also unshadowed for HI (194 degrees). On Wed AM (7/4) fetch was loosing coverage but holding velocity at 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 59S 175E (193 degs HI, 208 degs NCal, 210 degs Scal and shadowed by Tahiti). This gale is to be fading fast in the evening with southwest fetch fading from 30 kts and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 28 ft at 60S 175W (206 degs CA and shadowed). Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/11) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/12) 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 189 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival in CA on Fri afternoon (7/13) with period 18 secs.

North CA: Swell arrival in CA on Fri afternoon (7/13) with period 18 secs.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
On Monday (7/9) high pressure at 1028 mbs is to be holding 900 nmiles north of Hawaii ridging east forming the usual pressure gradient over North and Central CA producing 20-25 kts north winds from just south of Cape Mendocino to Pt Conception with the focus near Morro Bay. Junky short period windswell is to be the result for most of the Central and North coast. The high and the gradient are to lift north some on Tues (7/10) with north winds 20-25 kts centered near Bodega Bay but reaching south to Pt Conception and north over Southern Oregon with short period raw windswell continuing for all of North and Central CA. Wednesday (7/11) the gradient is to be over the CA-OR border now with north winds to near 30 kts with a weak eddy flow (south winds) setting up for most of North and all of Central CA. Small windswell possible mainly for North CA. By Thurs (7/12) the gradient is to be limited to Oregon waters at 20-25 kts with limited odds for small clean north windswell for North CA and the eddy flow in place for all of North and Central CA. .

Hawaii: On Monday (7/9) no easterly fetch of interest is forecast with no windswell generation expected. No change is expected until Thurs (7/12) when a small fetch of east winds are forecast building extending 800 nmiles east of Hawaii resulting in small short period east windswell.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a series of 4 gales are to track east through the Tasman Sea starting Mon (7/9). But none of these are to arrive intact into the Southwest Pacific offering no swell production potential.

Details to follow...


MJO/ENSO Forecast

Equatorial Warm Pool Slowly Building - ESPI Holding Near Zero

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (7/4) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening some starting on the dateline and modest easterly over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were mostly neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light easterly in pockets over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/5) a weak pattern of mixed east and west anomalies were in the KWGA. The forecast suggests strong east anomalies are to develop on the dateline starting 7/8 and nearly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/12. This seems very strange given the complete opposite forecast given by the CFS model (below).

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/4) A neutral MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a neutral MJO signal to continue for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with a Active/Wet signal developing in the West Pacific days 11-15. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/5) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to track steadily east for the next 15 days and strengthening, reaching the East Maritime Continent 15 days out and moderate in strength. The GEFS model depicts a variant on the same theme but the developing Active Phase not as strong or making as much eastward progress.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/5) This model depicts an Inactive/Dry MJO signal was fading and tracking east over Central America and effectively out of the picture. A weak version of the Active/Wet Phase was developing over the West Pacific easing east to the East Pacific on 7/30 A very weak Inactive pattern is to follow in the West Pacific on 7/20 pushing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/14. A stronger Inactive Phase is to develop in the far West Pacific at the end of the model run too.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/4) This model depicts west anomalies building on the dateline and moderately strong by 7/6 retrograding west while fading some then redeveloping 7/15 in the western KWGA and expanding in coverage filling the west KWGA 7/25 and holding through 8/1. No easterly anomalies are indicated.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/5) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with a neutral to weak west anomaly wind pattern in control and holding as the Inactive Phase of the MJO fades 7/12. A neutral MJO pattern to follow through 8/5 but with west anomalies slowly building in coverage and strength in the KWGA. The Active Phase is to start building 8/6 and strong, holding through 9/19 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA and strong 8/22-9/10 indicative of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). The Inactive Phase is to start building on 9/23-10/2 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA, just weaker than previously. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast easing east to 125W at the end of the model run and building from 2 contour lines to 3 solidly starting 7/7 and holding thereafter. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving well inland over the interior US. La Nina is gone. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled and should fully reach that state 3 months after the start of the transition or by 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/4) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line is starting to retrograde from 148W on 7/2 to 152W today presumably due to weakening Kelvin Wave conditions under the West Pacific. It was stationary on the dateline last winter, then started moving east on 5/15 to 165W, then to 160W on 5/22 then to 154W on 6/19 and to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 25 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific, warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth. Warm anomalies at +1.0 deg C were moving east from the far West Pacific and building at 135W and points east of there at +3.0 degs down 100 meters pushing and reaching east past the Galapagos. These waters are breaching the surface from 135W and points east of there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 depicts a river of warm water pushing east from the West Pacific with a large Kelvin Wave embedded in it starting at 145W building to +3.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to Ecuador and breaching the surface between 100W-150W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. And more warm water was pushing east from 140E reaching over the dateline and joining the existing Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching east to the Ecuador with no breaks and anomalies +5 cm over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. The La Nina cool pool is gone.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/4) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a shrinking area of cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile as compared to days past. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 160W, strongest at 100W. This area was fully coherent and almost completely filling the equator from 90W to the dateline 3 degs north and south of the equator. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area south of Mexico out to the dateline, and building in coherency south of Mexico in the past few days. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-150W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/4): Pockets of warming were scattered along the equator from Ecuador to the dateline with the strongest one at 105W. A couple of pockets of cooling were interspersed. Temps were warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru.
Hi-res Overview: (7/4) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru but weakening compared to days past. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 115W-145W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/5) Today's temps were rising some at -0.792, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.75 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/5) Today temps were falling some today at +0.354 and having previous risen to +0.490 on 7/2. Still the trend is continuing to move warmer, the first time in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/5) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with temps pushing up to +0.45 degs on July 1 (confirmed - see above) and rising in early Oct to +1.30 degs and to +1.50 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still above the +1.0 range into March 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps at +0.3 degs in late June and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in January holding there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (7/5): The daily index was falling today at -22.10. The 30 day average was falling today to -6.96 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at -1.86, the first time it has been negative in a year suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (7/5) Today the index was falling slightly at -0.14, nearing the highest it's been in a year which was -0.09 on 7/2. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 



External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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