Thursday, June 30, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 13.8 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 6.5 secs from 37 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.2 secs from 176 degrees. Wind southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs, 69.1 (Topanga 103), 63.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 69.3 (Del Mar 153), 67.1 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.5 ft @ 6.7 secs from 309 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.7 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 193 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 201 degrees. Water temp 69.4 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 8.3 secs from 324 degrees and southern hemi swell building from 1.7 ft @ 15.6 secs from 201 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 50.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.9 (Pt Reyes 46013), 51.6 (46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 58.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/30) North and Central CA had set waves at waist to maybe chest and warbled and sloppy and mushed and lightly chopped with near whitecaps. Protected breaks were waist high and cleaner but still somewhat warbled and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the peaks and clean and but slow and soft with high fog early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so on the sets and slightly warbled and soft with light northwest wind early. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean with light west wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high on the peak and clean and lined up with decent form early. North San Diego had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up if not almost closed out and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore continued on a run with waves chest to head high if not a little more early and clean and lined up with good form. The East Shore had east windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from from strong east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/30) Hawaii was getting swell from a gale that developed in the Central South Pacific Mon-Thurs (6/23) producing mostly 26-30 ft seas with one portion up to 36 ft aimed northeast. That swell was also hitting California but far smaller. Beyond no other swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred. But a gael is forecast tracking under New Zealand on Sun (7/3) producing 33 ft seas aimed east-northeast then fading Mon (7/4). And possibly another is to follow on Wed (7/6) with 31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (6/30) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest were being tracked.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (7/2) northwest winds are forecast at 20+ kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA. Low odds for minimal short period windswell.
- Sat (7/3) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early fading to 15 kts for North CA later and still 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading out.
- Sun (7/4) northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts early for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10+ kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
- Mon (7/5) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early attributable to weak low pressure off the coast with northwest winds 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon.
- Tues (7/6) northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for both North and Central CA.
- Wed (7/7) northwest winds are forecast early at 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts mainly south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 ks for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
- Thurs (7/8) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA early.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 13,000 ft today and forecast holding till it dips to 12,000 ft 7/3-7/4, then back up well above 14,000 ft beyond.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (6/30) the influential southern branch of the jet was trying to push north forming a weak trough under New Zealand reaching up to 50S and being fed by 130 kts winds offering some support for gale development. the jet was ridging south over the rest of the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to weaken and collapse on Friday (7/1) no longer offering support for gale development. No other support for gale development is forecast in upper atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is forecast under New Zealand on Sun (7/3) being fed by 130 kt winds and again quickly pushing east and fading on Mon (7/4) perhaps offering some limited support for gale development. And yet one more trough is forecast on Wed (7/6) under New Zealand being fed by 140 kt north winds and pushing east into at least Thurs (/7) perhaps offering better odds to support gale development.
Swell was fading in Hawaii from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific but was still trying to build in California (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Central South Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (12/19) a small gale started to build southeast of New Zealand with 35-45 kt south winds with seas building. In the evening a broader fetch of south winds developed at 45-50 kts with seas building from 29 ft over a tiny area at 48S 161.75W aimed north. Southwest fetch to continue Mon AM (6/20) at 45 kts with seas 36 ft over a semi decent sized area at 45.75S 157W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 43.25S 149.25W aimed northeast. A broad fetch of secondary winds developed Tues AM (6/21) at 35-40 kts from the south and southwest with seas 25 ft at 50S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds built in coverage at 35+ kts aimed north with seas 27 ft at 51.5S 158.5W aimed north. On Wed AM (6/22) south fetch was holding at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.25S 155.5W aimed north. South fetch was fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 53S 152W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.
Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (6/30) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (7/1) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/2) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (7/4) fading from 1.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-206 degrees
North CA: Swell holding on Thurs (6/30) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building some on Fri (7/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (7/2) at 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/3) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (7/4) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft).Swell Direction: 192-202 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours starting Sun AM (7/3) a gale is forecast tracking east under New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 54.75S 158.5E aimed east. In the evening southwest fetch continues at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54S 170E aimed east. On Mon AM fetch is to be fading in coverage at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 56.25S 176W aimed east-northeast. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.
On Tues PM (7/5) a new gale is to develop south of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 57.75S 171E aimed east. Fetch fading from 35 kts on Wed AM (7/6) with seas fading from 28 ft at 56S 180W. Something to monitor.
Massive Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggesting Small La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/29) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate plus east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/28) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA centered on the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and intensity at strong status focused on the dateline 6/29 and increasing in coverage through the end of the model run on 7/5 nut mainly to the east of the dateline.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/29) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a weak Active signal is to start building on day 5 of the model run stalling in the West KWGA on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects effectively the same thing but with the Active Phase stronger and filling more of the KWGA on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/30) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the West Maritime Continent and is to push east to the East Maritime Continent and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase a little bit stronger mid-run to modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/29) A strong Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was pushing over Ecuador today with a weak Active signal developing over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) gone on 7/4 with a moderate Active Phase tracking east over the KWGA then moving to the Central Pacific and into Central America at the end of the model run on 8/8. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the Maritime Continent starting to move into the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/29) A solid Inactive MJO Phase was over the East KWGA today focused on the dateline and point east of there to a point south of California with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to track over the dateline and points east of there over the next week mostly filling the KWGA while pushing east. West anomalies are to build over the West KWGA 7/4-7/11 then backtrack and fade through 7/14 associated with a weak Active Phase of the MJO forecast building mostly east of the KWGA 7/13 and beyond. East anomalies are to rebuild over the KWGA 7/13 peaking 7/16 then starting to fade on 7/25 and continuing on that trend through the end of the model run on 7/27.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/30 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was starting to fade though still filling the KWGA with weak east anomalies. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase and associated east anomalies pushing east and fading on 7/11. A weak Active Phase is forecast pushing east 7/3-7/24 pushing over the dateline with westerly anomalies developing 7/5 and pushing over the dateline 7/16. A weak Inactive Phase is to try and develop but fade 7/20-8/9 with west anomalies over the KWGA west of 140E but mostly east anomalies east of there. Then another weak Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 8/4 pushing through the KWGA through 9/18 with west anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA (to 150E) and east anomalies east of 150E. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is forecast beyond through the end of the model run on 9/27 with west anomalies holding west of 150E and east anomalies east of there. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/30 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding to 160E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/4. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. Suspect that is a temporary setback with a rebuild to the east starting in mid-Fall. That said, east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 150W (previously on the dateline) and are to not retrograde west into the the KWGA beyond 165E in Sept. We are still waiting for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E (where it is now).
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 170E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 177W. The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 132W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east connecting to a pocket of +3 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 110W and poised to reaching the surface there if not breaching it already at 135W and 119W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W at -3.5 degs C and steadily getting compressed east while weakening and discharging to the surface at 90W. A massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 110W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a last stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific and east wind anomalies at the surface. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A near contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 1-5N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were limited to the area directly over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were surging east to 135W on the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -0.5 degs limited between Ecuador and 103W. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east to 109W and building some. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building pushing east and squeezing cool water off Ecuador to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/29) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A building string of pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador west to 150W. A imbedded pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage daily. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/29): A thin string of warming water was developing on the equator from Ecuador west to 110W. Neutral temps were west of there. No cooling was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (6/29) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were building on the equator in the east aligned in a thin but broadening stream from 100W to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/30) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.454 after having been more or less steady at -1.5 or greater since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/30) Today's temps were rising to -0.281 and have been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb in June to -0.65 degs.
Forecast (6/30) - Temps are to hold at about -0.60 degs through mid-July, then starting a steady decline falling to -1.05 in Oct-Nov, then making a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.05 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.55 degs in July into mid Aug then slowly falling to -0.80 degs mid-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggest a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening the whole time from here forward.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.642 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.582 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.692 in November before rising to -0.574 in Dec and -0.362 degs in Jan and -0.162 in Feb. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/30) the daily index was positive at +24.39 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +15.70 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +18.10 today beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table