Next Forecast Update: Tues (6/30)
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 11.3 secs from 174 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 6.2 secs from 38 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 216 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.4 secs from 190 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.9 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.8 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.4 secs from 201 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 15.9 secs from 197 degrees and windswell 3.2 ft @ 8 secs from 303 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 10-12 kts. Water temp 50.5 degs (013), 57.6 degs (SF Bar) and 56.5 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (6/20) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves up to thigh high and warbled and crumbled with near chop on top coming from the south. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and clean. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was occasionally showing producing waves at waist high on the sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to maybe thigh high and warbled but with clean surface conditions. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high and somewhat lined up coming from the south with some light texture intermixed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves to shoulder high on the sets on the peak and lined up and clean. North San Diego had waves at waist high and fairly clean and lined up but unremarkable. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had remnant southern hemi swell with waves chest to shoulder high on the sets and clean and fun but nothing more. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high with east tradewinds pretty light with textured conditions early.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (6/23) small swell was fading in California and all but gone in Hawaii from the final in a series of gales that formed southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sun (6/14) lifting north but only produced 30 ft seas early Saturday aimed a little to the northeast, then dissipating. Beyond a gale formed under New Zealand tracking east Fri-Sun (6/21) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell is tracking northeast. And another system formed right behind it Sun-Mon (6/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Possible decent swell to result from it for the East Pacific. Perhaps another weak gale is to form southeast of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (6/25) producing up to 30 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe one more is possible in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (6/27) producing 41 ft seas aimed north with a secondary fetch behind it Sun-Mon (6/29) producing up to 34 ft seas pushing well northeast. So there's hope.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (6/23) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/23) north winds were 15-20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow from Pt Arena southward. On Wed (6/24) north winds are to build over all of North CA from 20-25 kts early to 25-30 kts later but with north winds 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward all day. On Thurs (6/25) a full on summertime gradient is to set up over North CA with north winds 30 kts over Cape Mendocino early and 25 kts down to the Golden gate with 20 kts north winds down to Pt Conception early but lifting north fast and 30-35 kt north winds limited to Cape Mendocino later with north winds 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward in the afternoon. Fri (6/26) north winds to be 30-35 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with and eddy flow (south winds) south of there all day. On Sat (6/27) north winds to be 30 kts reaching south to Pt Arena building to 35 kts in the afternoon with north winds 20+ kts along the entirety of the Pacific Northwest Coast with the eddy flow holding from the Golden Gate southward to Pt Conception. On Sun (6/28) north winds are forecast at 35 kts for the Golden Gate north to Southern Cape Mendocino early with the eddy flow from Monterey Bay southward early and holding all day. On Mon (6/29) the gradient is to be fading with north winds 25-30 kts over North CA north of Bodega Bay fading to 20 kts later with an eddy flow holding south of there all day. Tues (6/30) north winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and the eddy flow holding from Bodega Bay southward.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Snow level 14,000 ft or higher for the week except falling to 10,500 ft on June 29-30.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Tuesday (6/23) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with winds weak and no troughs supporting gale development indicated. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start building Wed (6/24) under New Zealand lifting northeast and being fed initially by 160 kt winds tracking northeast offering good support for gale development into Thurs (6/25) then starting to pinch off later in the day with winds weakening offering fading support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours there's some suggestion that the pinched trough might redevelop positioned well to the north on Sat (6/27) over the Southeast Pacific again perhaps offering some support for gale development there. And a secondary weak trough is to form in the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (6/29) perhaps offering some support for gale development, though winds are to be very light (80 kts) in that trough. After that the southern branch of the jet is to all but disappear offering no support for gale development.
On Tuesday (6/23) swell was all but gone in Hawaii and fading in California from a weak gale that formed under New Zealand tracking east (see Final New Zealand Gale below). Another gale developed under New Zealand with swell from it radiating northeast (see Another New Zealand Gale below). And yet another stronger gale formed behind that and aimed better to the northeast (see Stronger New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Wed AM (6/24) producing 35+ kt southwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 58S 179W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to hold in coverage at 35-40 kts but aimed well to the north with seas 29 ft at 51.5S 167.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/25) the fetch is to hold at 30-35 kts with a core developing to 40 kts aimed north with 27 ft seas at 49.5S 158W aimed north to northeast. In the evening the gale is to fade while falling southeast and no longer of interest. Something to monitor.
Final New Zealand Gale
One more gale formed southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/12) with lifting northeast with a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 54S 176E aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds lifted northeast with 30 ft seas at 57S 174W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there while lifting due north Sat AM (6/13) with 30-35 kt south winds and seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 55S 165W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade out. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.
Oahu: Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft) early. Swell fading on Sun (6/21) from 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/22) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/23) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
Southern CA: Swell continues Tues (6/23) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (6/24) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 204-209 degrees
North CA: Swell continues Tues (6/23) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs. Residuals on Wed (6/24) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 204-208 degrees
Another New Zealand Gale
A gale started forming while sweeping east under New Zealand on Fri AM (6/19) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas 31 ft at 58S 157E aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds held tracking east with seas building to 32 ft at 58S 167.5E aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (6/20) the gale tracked east and built with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft seas at 59.5S 175.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale tracked east producing southwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 58.5S 168.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated quickly after that with seas fading from 32 ft at 57.5S 157W aimed east. Swell is to be pushing northeast.
Oahu: Possible swell arrival on Fri (6/26) building to 1.6 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/27) at 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/28) and being overrun by a new swell. Swell Direction: 194 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (6/28) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/29) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/30) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/27) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (6/28) at 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/29) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/30) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Stronger New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat PM (6/20) producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sun AM (6/21) a solid fetch of 40 kt west-southwest winds were building tracking east with seas building from 33 ft at 57S 178.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch tracked northeast building to 45-50 kts with seas building to 37 ft at 56S 176.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/22) the gale was lifting northeast with fetch fading at 40-45 kts from the southwest and seas 40 ft at 53S 161W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 49.5S 152.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/27) building to 2.0 ft @ 20-21 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building and peaking mid-day Sun (6/28) at 2.8 ft @ 18-19 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (6/29) from 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (6/30) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/28) building to 1.8 ft @ 20 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building Mon (6/29) to 2.5 ft @ 19 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (6/30) at 2.9 ft @ 18 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/28) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (6/29) to 2.0 ft @ 19-20 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (6/30) at 2.5 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (6/26) another gale is to form in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific with 45-50 kt south winds and seas 36 ft at 42S 136.5W aimed north. On Sat AM (6/27) south winds to build to 50 kts solid aimed due north with 40 ft seas at 42.5S 132.5W aimed north. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 45 kts from the south with seas 36 ft at 41S 127W aimed north. Will believe it when it happens.
Theoretically another fetch is to build in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Sun PM (6/28) producing 40 kts south winds and seas building to 30 ft at 49.5S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch is to hold at 40+ kts on Mon AM (6/29) lifting northeast with seas 34 ft at 47S 133.5W aimed northeast. fetch is to continue lifting northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 43.5S 132.5W aimed northeast. The gael is tot rack east and fade from there. Something to monitor.
La Nina Development Backs Off For a Second
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/22) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then fading to light east over the Dateline and dying to calm over the western KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific building slightly over the Central Pacific then turning modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/23) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status in 2 days and holding till June 28, then moderating some but still retaining control over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/30 and building in coverage some over the Central and East Pacific.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/22) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern is to fade some on day 5, fading to neutral on day 10 and holding neutral over the whole of the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model indicates the moderate Inactive Phase is to hold on days 5 and 10, then building to very strong status on day 15 and filling the KWGA and most of the Pacific.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/23) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase stalled and retrograding west to North Africa and very weak at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/23) This model depicts a solid Inactive Phase over the West Pacific today and tracking east pushing into Central America on 7/13. A weak Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 7/5 pushing slowly east and moving into Central America at the end of the model run on 8/2. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific on 7/20 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/22) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with east anomalies filling the KWGA and to the Western Central Pacific. The forecast indicates a continuation of no MJO signal with modest to moderate east anomalies taking hold over the entirety of the Pacific filling it by 6/24 at moderate strength and holding unchanged through the end of the model run on 7/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/23 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO building over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to hold while very slowly easing east through 8/18 with east anomalies building solidly in strength and coverage starting 7/10 while building eastward. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far Indian Ocean starting 6/25 pushing into the KWGA a few days later and then filling it by 8/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 9/21 but producing no westerly anomalies of interest except in the far West Pacific. East anomalies are to be the by 8/2 not only filling the KWGA but the entire equatorial Pacific and holding for the foreseeable future. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is developing over the dateline today and is to build steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 8/2 with a third developing on 8/26. A single contour low pressure bias is to appear over the Indian Ocean starting 8/1 building in coverage with a second developing 9/7 holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 8/2 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-July.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was easing east to 165E. The 29 deg isotherm was steady at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 114W moving east from 124W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific pushing east to 135W, moving east from 150W 5 days ago. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Instead cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -2 to -3 degs 150 meters deep from 180W to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though continues to lose some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates the same thing with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Negative anomalies at -5 to -15 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 160W and holding coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 160E (losing some ground there too) suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator and mostly holding in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific and along Peru and Central America.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/22) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were gone off the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler and appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and building in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/22): A weak cooling trend is in place starting along Peru and pushing north and west on the equator off Ecuador and out over the Galapagos out to 150W. Pockets of warming were on the equator in pockets between 110-140W. The short term trend is looking like a push towards the development of La Nina with cool water over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific scraping any remaining warm equatorial water and pushing it quickly west to the far West equatorial Pacific, but weaker than days past.
Hi-res Overview: (6/22) A stream of cool water was entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and holding in coverage. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a stable La Nina like pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/23) Today's temps were falling some down at -1.416 after previously down at -1.511 on 6/16 and have been fading steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/20) Temps were rising slightly at -0.197 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is steady lately after previous being on a downward trajectory April and May. Temps were in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/23) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.40 July 1, then beginning a steeper downward trajectory reaching down to -1.00 in early Sept dropping to -1.15 degs mid-Sept and holding there through Nov, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.35 degs, and are to hold in that range into November then rising some to -0.1 by Feb 2021. The low outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/23): The daily index was positive today at 8.93. The 30 day average was rising to -7.82. The 90 day average was rising to -3.04, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table