Thursday, June 22, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 214 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.8 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down. Using Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 7.9 secs from 50 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 202 degrees. Wind north at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 64.0 degs, 65.5 (Topanga 103), 60.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 65.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.0 (Del Mar 153), 66.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 269 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.9 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.8 ft @ 6.8 secs from 280 degrees. Water temperature was 63.9 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 7.1 secs with local northwest windswell 3.5 ft @ 7.8 secs from 313 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.6 ft @ 13.6 sec from 206 degrees. Wind southwest at 4-6 kts (46026). Water temp 50.0 (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.3 (San Francisco 46026), 58.1 (SF Bar 142), 58.8 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 57.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/22) North and Central CA waves were thigh to waist high and warbled and soft but not chopped. Protected breaks were waist high and mushed but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and clean on the rare set. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and warbled and weak and mushed with northwest winds on it. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and crumbled and soft with texture and light northwest wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high on the peak and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high with decent form but soft with some texture on it and crumbled. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from strong east-northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/22) California was getting faint fading signs of swell originating from a gale previously in the Southeast Pacific that tracked northeast Sun-Tues (6/13) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. Beyond a small gale developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sat-Tues (6/20) producing 28-31 ft seas aimed north. Swell is propagating towards HI and CA. Otherwise a small gale is forecast in the far Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/26) producing 33 ft seas aimed north. And maybe another to follow on Wed (6/28) with 33 ft seas briefly aimed north before moving east of the CA swell window.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (6/22) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated relative to Hawaii or California.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri AM (6/23) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early and holding into the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
- Sat AM (6/24) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts early for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be building to 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
- Sun AM (6/25) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.
- Mon AM (6/26) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15 kts early for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to to 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
- Tues AM (6/27) northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding.
- Wed (6/28) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell fading some.
- Thurs (6/29) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. Windswell holding.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection: Today it is 10,500 ft falling to 9,000 ft in the evening then building to 12,000 ft by 6/24 and holding before building to 14,000+ ft on 6/29 and beyond. Possibly the big summertime melt is to start.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (6/22) the jetstream was heavily split over the South Pacific with most energy in the northern branch with winds at 160 kts running east on the 30S latitude line across the width of the South Pacific impacting Chile. The influential southern branch was weak running east on the 65s latitude line with no troughs and no support for gale development indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (6/23) a new trough is to start building within that flow southeast of New Zealand being fed by 120 kt winds lifting northeast while tracking east into Sun (6/25) over the Southeast Pacific and fading. Maybe some support for gale development is possible. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (6/26) winds in the jet are to build to 130-140 kts running east down at 74S and over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. But a small trough is to start building on east edge of that ridge over the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs (6/29) being fed by 120 kts winds perhaps offering some support for gale development.
On Thurs (6/22) swell from a weak gale previously in the Southern Pacific was fading in California (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours swell is to be propagating north originating from a gale previously in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific (see South Central Pacific Gale below).
Weak Southeast Pacific Gale (7th in a Series)
A weak gale developed over the Southeast Pacific (again) on Sun AM (6/11) producing a broad fetch of southeast winds at 35 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 54S 143W aimed northeast. In the evening winds built at 40-45 kts over a small area lifting northeast with seas 25 ft at 54S 130W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/12) fetch was tracking east with southwest wind 40 kts and seas 28 ft at 53S 132W and 55S 120.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east with southwest winds 35-40 kts in pockets on the eastern edge of the CA swell window and seas 27 ft at 49S 122W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/13) the gale pushed east of the Southern CA swell window and was fading. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees
North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (6/22) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 moving to 183 degrees
South Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing over the upper reaches of the Central Pacific on Sat AM (6/17) producing a steady fetch of southeasterly winds at 35-40 kts with seas building some. In the evening southeast winds built to 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 44.75S 152.5W aimed north. On Sun AM (6/18) south to southeast winds were 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 42.75S 150.75W aimed north over a small area. In the evening south winds from the original fetch collapsed but a secondary fetch was developing with south winds 40+ kts over a tiny area and seas from the original fetch fading from 23 ft at 38N 148W aimed north. On Mon AM (6/19) fetch was rebuilding at 40-45 kts from the south with seas 25 ft at 50.75S 137W aimed north. In the evening south winds were 40-45 kts with seas 31 ft at 48.75S 139.75W aimed north. South fetch was fading Tues AM (6/20) from 35 kts and seas fading from 28 ft at 48S 143.5W aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 25 ft at 40.5S 139W aimed north. Possible small swell for Hawaii and California.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/24) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/25) to 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell fading on Mon (5/26) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). A small secondary pulse to arrive later on Tues (5/27) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) late. Dribbles fading on Wed (5/28) from 1.2 ft @ @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 181 moves to 178 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/26) building to 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/27) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs late (2.5 ft). Secondary swell building on Wed (6/28) 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/29) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/30) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 moving to 196 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/26) building to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/27) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs late (2.5 ft). Secondary swell building on Wed (6/28) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/29) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/30) from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (7/1) fading from 1.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201 moving to 196 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (6/24) producing south winds at 35-40 kts with seas building. On Sun AM (6/25) south winds to build to 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed north with seas 29 ft at 51.5S 131.25W aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be lifting north and fading from 45 kts over a tiny area with seas 33 ft at 48.25S 127.75W aimed north. On Mon AM (7/26) south fetch is to be 45 kts but well east of the Southern CA swell window with 28 ft seas at 42.75S 124W aimed north. In the evening all fetch and seas are to be east of the CA swell window. Something to monitor.
On Tues PM (6/27) another small gale is forecast developing deep in the Southeast Pacific with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 59.25S 132.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/28) the gale is to be lifting northeast with 45 kt south winds and seas building to 32 ft at 54.75S 124.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be tracking northeast at 45 kts with seas 33 ft at 50S 117.75W aimed northeast and on the very edge of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.
El Nino Building at the Oceans Surface and Trying to Couple with the Atmosphere
Kelvin Wave #4 Poised to Erupt - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Rising While Expanding Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA. Sea Surface Temperatures continue warming. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling deep into negative territory which it appears it is doing. The atmosphere is starting to become coupled with the ocean. The outlook is optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/21) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest west over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/22) Modest west anomalies were filling the KWGA. Modest west anomalies are to hold through 6/23 then fading with modest east anomalies developing quickly filling the KWGA through 7/1 then fading as weak west anomalies start rebuilding. Weak west anomalies to be filling the entire Pacific 7/3 through 7/6 then possibly giving way to weak east anomalies again.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/22) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a weak Inactive MJO developing on day 5 of the model run and building to modest strength over the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Inactive MJO fading and turning neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/22) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over Africa and is to ease east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates it moving to the Maritime Continent and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/22) A moderate Active (wet) pattern was in the far West Pacific today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) pushing east over the KWGA while weakening through 7/12 and then over the East Pacific through 7/22 while weakening and moving over Ecuador. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building weakly over the KWGA on 7/7 and tracking east and filling the KWGA through 7/27 then filling the Pacific through the last day of the model run on 8/10 while a weak Active Signal (wet air) starts building over the west KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/21) Today weak to moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA with no MJO signal indicated. The forecast indicates no MJO signal forecast with west anomalies holding steady through 6/24, then pockets of weak east anomalies appear 6/25-7/5. By 7/2 west anomalies to build to moderate strength filling 50% of the KWGA the fading some to modest strength on 7/7 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/19. Maybe a few stray pockets of east anomalies are forecast on the dateline 7/2 -7/10. In general, west anomalies to prevail.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/20) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was just past its peak over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to slowly traverse the KWGA through 7/13 but with west anomalies weakly in control and starting to build 6/28 to near strong status holding through 7/8. The Active Phase is to start building 7/9 and filling the KWGA and holding through 9/10. West anomalies are to hold at modest strength filling the KWGA then reaching strong status 7/20-8/10 and then modest after that through the end of the model run on 9/19. East anomalies are forecast from 180W and points east of there to 150W 7/17 through the end of the model run. A strong El Nino is potentially developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 127W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east to 120W in Aug and tracking slowly east from there and of no real interest at this point. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 170E with 2 contour lines and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 150W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring and is to continue into 7/9 with it's leading edge then stalling at 140W filling most of the Pacific with a third contour line developing on 6/22 with the primarily contours leading edge locked at 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears a strong El Nino is developing.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/22) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and easing east to 177E (from 172E) with the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 159W (previously 176W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 120W (previously 112W). The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper at 60 m down. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with a small break between 175E to 175W. A previous pocket of +3 degree anomalies that was in the west (Kelvin Wave #5) centered at 165W was now gone with +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 147W and back-building. +6 degree anomalies were from 110W into Ecuador. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates a huge very warm stream of +2-3 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3-4 erupting there into Ecuador. A new Kelvin Wave was building on the dateline between 165E to 145W at +3-4 degs (Kelvin Wave #5) while another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 120E at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #6). No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +5 cms solid connected to a +10 cms pocket from 125W east into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram on 6/17 warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 170E and east of there. There's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/21) The latest images depict a strong warm signal building along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with lesser but still serious heat extending up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja with a building tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching west to 165W and a warmer core to 130W. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear and building El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal Springtime upwelling pattern in control there and likely be reinforced over the next week.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/21): A neutral pattern over the east equatorial Pacific and extending west on the equator to 170W with a small warming pocket at 95W and generic light warming from 130W to New Guinea. It's not surprising there's no clear signal of warming along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get much warmer. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (6/21) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in a few pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to 165W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/22) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are steady at +2.619 after building/peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/22) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are steady at +0.712 the last 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 25 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps were +0.45 degs today.
Forecast (6/22) - Temps are above ENSO neutral at +0.9 degs and are forecast rising to +1.05 degs in July and +1.75 degs in Oct and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast holding at +0.95 degs in July then slowly rising to +1.35 degs in Nov/Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 16, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.120 degs today and it's the 4th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.298 in July and up to +1.466 degrees in Oct then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.761 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models but 3 of 17 are higher still.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/20) the Daily Index was negative at -16.03 and has been negative the last 11 days. It was positive 5 days previous and then negative for 27 days previous to that ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -11.35 and the most negative in years. It previously had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -7.83 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table