Saturday, June 19, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.5 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.3 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 8.0 secs from 47 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.7 secs from 171 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.9 degs, 68.2 (Topanga 103), 66.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.0 (Del Mar 153), 66.6 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 17.7 secs from 206 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.5 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 17.6 secs from 191 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 7.9 ft @ 9.9 secs from 326 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 4-8 kts. Water temp 51.3 (029), 54.5 degs (SF Bar 142) and 61.2 degs (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/19) North and Central CA had waves at waist to chest high and uneven and a little warbled and soft with some south lump on it. Protected breaks had chest high sets and lined up but a bit soft with clean conditions and a light south texture early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and lined up and clean but weak and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and clean with some haze early. Central Orange County had set waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up if not closed out and clean with no winds early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder high and lined up and peeling and clean. North San Diego had sets waves at waist to chest high on the bigger sets and lined up if not closed out and clean early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore was getting solid swell with set waves head high to a little overhead and lined up and peeling and clean but inconsistent. The East Shore was small with waves thigh high or so and textured from modest to light east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/19) California was starting to see some energy from a decent gale that developed in the South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (6/11) producing up to 36 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east-northeast. And Hawaii was seeing the leading edges of swell from a stronger system that formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east fast Sun-Tues (6/15) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Another smaller system developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/16) producing 36 ft seas aimed east if not southeast. Limited energy is pushing northeast expected to result in surf for California and points south of there. Beyond a small system is forecast developing under New Zealand Mon-Wed (6/23) producing up to 33 ft seas tracking northeast. And maybe a better one is to form in the Central South Pacific for Fri-Sat (6/26) with 36 ft seas aimed northeast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (6/19) no swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell of interest was in the water other than windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. But the North Pacific remains more active than is normal for this time of the year with 2 systems forecast traversing its northern border. But neither is to produce seas of even 18 ft either close enough nor aimed at our forecast area.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun (6/20) northwest winds are to be 30-35 kts for extreme north Cape Mendocino and 25-30 kts just off the coast with an eddy flow (south winds) southward for North and Central CA holding all day. Windswell fading.
- Mon (6/21) north winds are to be 20+ kts off Cape Mendocino and North CA with an eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Arena southward holding all day. Windswell holding.
- Tues (6/22) north winds to be fading at 15-20 kts well off the North CA coast with an eddy flow (south winds) for all of North and Central CA fading to near calm in the afternoon. No meaningful windswell expected.
- Wed (6/23) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA building to building to 15+ kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA with up to 20 kt north winds between the Golden Gate and Cape Mendocino. Building raw windswell expected.
- Thurs (6/24) high pressure returns with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA building in the afternoon to 25-30 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA. Raw windswell building.
- Fri (6/25) north winds to be 30+ kts for Cape Mendocino and off all of North CA early with north winds 5 kts from just south of Pt Arena to Pt Conception. No change in the afternoon expect an eddy flow developing south of Cape Mendocino. Windswell cleaning up and holding.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.
Freezing level 14,000 or above through 6/21 then falling to 12,500 ft 6/22-6/24, then rising back to 14,000+ ft.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (6/19) the influential southern branch of the jet was depressed pretty far south forming a ridge pushing under New Zealand running west to east almost over the width of the entire South Pacific down at 63S and over the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf offering no potential to support gale development over ice free waters. The jet was further north over the far Southeast Pacific, but it was very weak offering no potential to support gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast with the jet steadily running flat west to east on the 63S latitude line and mostly over Antarctic Ice. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (6/23) the jet is to push north some under New Zealand being fed by 140 kt winds forming a trough and pushing just southeast of New Zealand on Thurs (6/24) offering some support for gale development. That trough is to push east into Sat (6/26) but not rising north beyond the 60S latitude line limiting it's ability to produce a significant gale. For the most part the Southern Hemi is in a split zonal jetstream flow for now.
On Saturday (6/19) swell was starting to show in California originating from a gale previously in the deep South Central Pacific (See Deep Central South Pacific Gale below). And another small swell was fading in Hawaii from a small gale that formed in the Southwest Pacific (see Small Southwest Pacific Gale below). Stronger swell was starting to hit Hawaii originating from a broader gale that traversed the South Pacific (see South Central Pacific Storm below). And a secondary fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) aimed somewhat towards the US West Coast. A long run of modest sized swell is expected for the US West Coast.
Over the next 72 hours starting Mon PM (6/21) a gale is to start building southwest of New Zealand producing 45 kt southwest winds with seas building from 30 ft at 60.25S 161.5E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/22) southwest winds to be tracking east and fading from 35-40 kts over a broader area with seas building to 32 ft at 58.5S 174E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas fading from 28 ft at 55S 178W aimed northeast. Residual fetch to persist into Wed AM (6/23) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a moderate area aimed northeast with 27 ft seas fading at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast. 30-35 kt west fetch is to be fading into the evening with 28 ft seas aimed northeast at 56S 158W. Something to monitor.
Deep Central Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/9) a tiny gale developed in the deep South Central Pacific producing 45 kts southwest winds pushing off the Ross Ice Shelf producing 27 ft seas at 64S 152W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the west-southwest with seas 30 ft at 63S 142W aimed east-northeast. Fetch and seas are to be gone in the evening. Small swell to result for South and Central America with barely perceptible energy up ito the US West Coast.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Small Southwest Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (6/10) a fetch of southwest winds started building southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (6/10) at 50+ kts over a tiny area getting traction and producing seas of 28-30 ft near 56.75S 168.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 45 kts over a small area pushing east fast with seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 56S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (6/11) fetch pushed east at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 55S 146W aimed east. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor but swell likely to be buried in stronger swell arriving at the same time.
Hawaii: Swell fading on Sat (6/19) at 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft) and starting to be overrun by stronger South Central Pacific swell below. Swell Direction: 186 degrees
South Central Pacific Storm
On Sat PM (6/12) a new gale was developing just southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 55S 175.8W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with a core at 50 kts aimed north with seas building from 32 ft at 51.5S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening broad area of 30-40 kt southwest winds were filling the South Central Pacific with a core at 50-55 kts aimed northeast producing 37 ft seas at 51.5S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch was tracking east at 50 kts over a solid area with a huge area of 30-35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 41 ft at 51S 137.75 aimed east to northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a large area in the Southeast Pacific with 35 ft seas at 52S 128.75W with 26-28 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 43S 147W pushing northeast. The fetch quickly dissipate from there. Swell is pushing northeast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.5 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (6/20) pushing 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later afternoon (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell steady Mon AM (6/21) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) then starting to fade late afternoon. Residuals on Tues (6/22) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/23) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182-185 degrees
Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/20) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs mid-day (3.5 ft ). Swell continuing up on Tues (6/22) reaching 3.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (5.0 ft) mid-AM and holding. Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on on Thurs (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200-204 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/21) building to 1.8 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (6/22) to 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/23) from 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/24) at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/25) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-198 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
Secondary fetch associated with the South Central Pacific Gale (above) developed Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch built Wed AM (6/16) from 50-55 kts from the west but with fetch falling southeast with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 135.75W aimed east. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds were aimed northeast while falling south with seas 36 ft at 56.5S 122.5W aimed east moving to the eastern edge of the North CA swell window. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50 kt southwest fetch was in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 31 ft seas at 57.5S 119W aimed east. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/25) building to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holds on Sat (6/26) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell pulsing some on Sun (6/27) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/26) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/27) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell finally fading on Mon (6/28) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals fading on Tues (6/29) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours another system is to develop in the deep Central South Pacific on Fri AM (6/25) producing 50-55 kt south winds aimed north with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to push east fast with south winds 45 kts over a small area with seas 35 ft at 57.75S 146.5W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/26) fetch is to push east and fade from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 57S 138W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring Weakly near Ecuador - SOI Neutral and Stable
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves appear to be weakly breaching near the Galapagos. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies holding west of the dateline for the next 3 months, but solid east anomalies east of there suggesting strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska this Fall.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/18) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate plus east over the Central Pacific and moderate plus east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/19) a mix of modest east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for west building on the dateline into 6/20 then fading and gone by 6/22 with weak east anomalies slowly building in the far West KWGA and taking over it by 6/24 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/26
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/18) A modest Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase fading over the KWGA at day 5 turning neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing but with fragments of the Inactive signal persisting in the west KWGA on day 10.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/19) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at exceedingly weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase holding it's position and strength through day 15 of the model run over the West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/18) A moderate Active Phase (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The Active Phase (wet air) is to push east into Central America 7/8. A neutral pattern is to develop behind until a very weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to building in the west on 7/18 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/18) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak mostly west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in the KWGA through 7/4. After that a weak east wind pattern is to slowly grow in the KWGA from west to east filling it by 7/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 7/16 but becoming focused on the dateline area.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/19 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was dissipating over the KWGA. Weak west anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to slowly fade through 7/12 with weak west and east anomalies holding. Starting 7/21 a semi solid Active Phase of the MJO is to set up filling the KWGA through 9/7 with moderate west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA but solid east anomalies setting up starting 7/13 from the dateline eastward and building into 8/14 and holding thereafter. After that a return to a neutral MJO pattern is forecast with west anomalies persisting. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. The high pressure contour line is to shift dramatically east to 130W on 7/5 holding through 7/29 then possibly back-building west to the dateline and holding. The single contour low pressure bias is to hold it's current position to 7/13, then slowly retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. This suggest a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. And this forecast has been stable for over a month now.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 178E and the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 160W possibly suggesting a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. Also +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 152W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 125W and points east of there indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 indicates much the same. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were all but gone with residuals getting squeezed to the surface by the Kelvin Wave near Peru. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) A decrease in sea heights continued over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms over the dateline and points west and then from 100W and points east of there with neutral anomalies in between. The demise of La Nina is occurring now but no clear large scale warming is occurring either. A neutral pattern was getting established.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/18) The latest images show steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with marked warming building just off Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. Perhaps 2 previous Kelvin Waves were finally erupting. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru but very broken up. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/18): A weak and small area of warming was occurring west of the Galapagos. Otherwise nothing outside the ordinary was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (6/18) A distinct flow of warmer than normal waters were on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to the dateline with secondary warming west of Central America. A mix of generic warm and cool water was west of Peru and Chile. A clear cool outflow was pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not quite gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/19) Today's temps were falling some at +0.109 after peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/19) Today temps were stable at +0.210 after peaking at +0.224 on 6/15 (the highest is a year). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/19) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May and then -0.05 in early June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.85 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.35 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the deep Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/19): The daily index was falling to -7.94. The 30 day average was falling to -2.08 , meeting the previous low of on 6/14 of -2.08,the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling slightly to +2.00 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table