BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/17) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high coming from the northwest and warbled and mushed and chopped with small whitecaps in the lineup. Protected breaks were up to thigh high and weak and mushed a barely lined up with some warble in the water but no chops. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets on the peak and reasonably lined up with decent form and soft but real clean early. In Ventura County waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up with decent form and soft and fairly clean but with texture on top. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with decent form but with some warble in the water from modest southwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder to maybe head high and lined up with decent form and real clean but uneven with some windswell in the mix. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up with decent form bordering on closed out and real clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at chest high and lined up when the sets came and clean with decent form but soft. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/17) California was seeing fading swell originating from a small gale that developed Fri-Sat (6/7) while lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 37-39 ft with residual energy holding into Sun (6/8) at 26-28 ft in the far Southeast Pacific. After that a gale is developed south of New Zealand Mon-Tues (6/17) producing 35 ft seas aimed east-northeast before impacting the ice flow possibly resulting in some swell. And a cutoff gale is forecast developing Wed (6/18) in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing up to 30 ft seas over a small area aimed north targeting mainly Hawaii. And a small gael is forecast tracking east from a point just south of New Zealand Sun-Mon (6/23) with 29-31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. So there is some minimal hope if one is to believe the models.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/17) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/17) the jet was heavily split over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch ridging south under New Zealand down at 65S and over Antarctic Ice lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific to 55S but weak with winds barely 100 kts then falling south again over the Southeast Pacific and weak. No support for gale formation was indicated. But a trough was developing in the northern branch of the jet over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours on Wed (6/18) that trough is to build being fed by 170 kts winds offering a short window to support gale formation. But the southern branch of the jet is to remain tracking east and displaced well south and very weak offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (6/21) a little more wind energy is to start building into the southern branch of the jet and by Sun (6/22) a small trough is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand being fed by up to 140 kts winds tracking east into Tues (6/24) and over the Central South Pacific then offering some support for gale formation. But after that the southern branch is to be way too far south down at 70S and totally over Antarctic Ice over the width of the South Pacific offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/17) swell was fading in California originating from a gale that developed while lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And small swell is possibly tracking northeast towards the US from a gale previously under New Zealand (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues PM (6/17) tropical low pressure is to be turning extratropical in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific starting to generate a fetch of southeast winds at 40 kts trying to get traction on the oceans surface. On Wed AM (6/18) that low is to be well formed producing a defined fetch of south winds at 40 kts aimed due north with seas building to 29-30 ft at 35.75S 158.75W aimed north right at Hawaii. In the evening south winds to be losing coverage from the south at 35+ kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 35S 155W aimed north. On Thurs AM (6/19) south fetch is to be gone with the low falling southeast and fading out. Something to monitor relative to Tahiti and Hawaii. No fetch is to be aimed at the US West Coast.

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed Fri AM (6/7) tracking east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 55.25S 149W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Southeast Pacific with seas 38 ft at 53.75S 138.75W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (6/7) south to southwest fetch was starting to lift solidly northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 50.5S 129.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch was fading from 35-45 kts over a broad area in the far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 32 ft at 48.75S 121.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/8) south fetch was holding at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft over a broad area centered at 43S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening south fetch held at 35-40 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 25-26 ft at 42S 119W aimed north. Fetch lingered into Mon AM (6/9) at 120W at 35-40 kts with seas 25-26 ft at 54.5S 119W in the SCal swell window while also targeting South America well. Beyond fetch and seas faded while pushing east and east of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Residuals on Tues (6/17) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees focused on 189 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Tues (6/17) fading from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees focused on 187 degrees

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Mon AM (6/16) a gale developed south-southwest of New Zealand with 40 kts west winds and seas building from 22 ft at 61S 159E aimed east and just north of the Antarctic Ice Shelf. In the evening southwest winds built to 45-50 kts with seas 32 ft at 61S 172.5E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (6/17) fetch was lifting northeast while fading in coverage at 40 kts from the west-southwest with seas building to 35 ft at 60S 175W aimed east-northeast and poised if not already impacting the northwest tip of the ice field there. In the evening fetch and seas fading if not gone as they interact with ice there. Something to monitor.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just southeast of New Zealand on Sun AM (6/22) producing south and southwest winds at 50+ kts over a small area and seas 31 ft at 51.5S 179.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 31 ft at 50S 171.25W aimed northeast over a small area. On Mon AM (6/23) southwest winds to be 40 kts over a building area with seas 29-30 ft at 53S 164W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt south winds to be falling south with seas fading from 27 ft at 50S 157W and just north of the ice field flowing off the Ross Ice Shelf. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the far East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/17) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to start giving up ground with west anomalies building east into the KWGA 6/20 building steadily east reaching the dateline 6/27 and building east of there to 165W at the end of the model run on 7/3.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (6/17) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking some from 155W to now 157W. Warm water is on the move and creeping east. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 20 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and running east almost continuous across the equatorial thermocline at +1 degs in the East Pacific down 55m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 indicates neutral to barely cool anomalies were over the upper thermocline (50 meters or higher) and fading but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of that cool pool reaching east to 100W with warm pockets east of there to Ecuador. And very warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. And weak warm anomalies were filling the East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral to weakly positive in the east and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 180W and neutral in between from 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator starting at 5N and 5S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at roughly 130W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/12) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building in a wave pushing east on the equator across the Pacific to 135W with scattered pockets of warm anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated nor have been since 4/20. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/16) The latest images depict mostly weakly warming water temps over the bulk of the Equatorial Pacific other than a few pockets of slightly cooler anomalies between 110-130W. Temps appears to be slowly warming over the entire Equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies were north and south of the equator. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with neutral anomalies building east over the Central equatorial Pacific to 150W. Weak cool anomalies were from 150W to 115W. Warm anomalies were east of there to the Galapagos. Of note is to steady development of neutral anomalies over the Central Pacific, where previously cool anomalies were present.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/16): Temps continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps falling slight at +0.1796 after falling 6/12 to -0.087 previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/17) Today's temps were falling some at -0.286 previously up at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at 0.0 on 6/11. Previously temps were 0,0 (6/4), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (6/17) - Temps to hold at 0.00 degs into July then are to start falling August-Nov down to -0.9 degs, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp falling to only -0.75 degs. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern bias cool holding through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to down to -0.027 (+0.59 last month). Temps to slowly fall to -0.280 in in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.294 OND then rising some to +0.004 at the end of the model run on JFM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.282 NDJ rising to -0.155 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/15) the Daily Index was negative at -12.72 and has been toggling around neutral since 5/30, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was steady at +4.17 and has been generally rising the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +3.69 and on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April then falling to -1.71 in May. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table