Thursday, June 16, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 12.9 secs from 190 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 6.4 secs from 23 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 16.1 secs from 269 degrees. Wind south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.4 degs, 69.1 (Topanga 103), 64.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 68.4 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.8 ft @ 7.9 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 16.1 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 16.1 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.0 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 65.1 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 5.0 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 6.0 secs from 315 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 15-21 kts. Water temp 49.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.4 (Pt Reyes 46013), 49.6 (46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 57.9 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 52.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/16) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high and warbled and chopped with whitecaps and a mess. Protected breaks were knee high and clean and soft and not really rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and clean and soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and fairly lined up with decent form but with some light warbled intermixed and light wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist to chest high with good form when them came and glassy conditions but very inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean with sideshore northeast warble. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore had east windswell at thigh to waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/16) California was getting minima swell from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific. Hawaii was not getting any meaningful swell of interest. Looking forward a solid gale developed over the Tasman Sea Thurs-Mon (6/13) producing 26-32 ft seas with small energy from it radiating northeast and is forecast to eventually reach Hawaii. And secondary energy from that gale redeveloped in the far Southwest Pacific Tues-Wed (6/15) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell is propagating towards Hawaii and CA. No additional swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast behind.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (6/16) small swell from a gale previously off Japan was tracking towards Hawaii (see Japan Gale below). And remnants of that gale redeveloped over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below).
Otherwise no swell producing weather systems have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
On Sun PM (6/12) a gale developed quickly while tracking east off Japan producing a small area of 45-50 kt west winds with seas building briefly to 32 ft at 37.75N 153.25E aimed west. Winds were fading fast Mon AM (6/13) southwest winds were fading from 40 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 38N 157E aimed east. The gale faded from there. Some tiny swell to result for Hawaii late in the workweek into the weekend.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/17) building to 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/18) at 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/19) from 1.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 307 degrees
North Dateline Gale
Remnants of the Japan Gale (above) raced northeast and redeveloped Wed PM (6/15) over the North Dateline region producing a small area of 40 kt west winds with seas building to 23 ft at 46N 177.75E aimed southeast. That fetch pushed east on Thurs AM (6/16) at 35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 47.5N 176.5W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there. Perhaps small swell is to radiate towards the Islands backing up swell from the Japan Gale (below). Will monitor.\
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/20) building to 2.1 ft @ 11-12 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Tues (6/21) from 1.6 ft @ 10 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 321 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (6/17) low pressure is to be off Cape Mendocino with west winds there 5 kts and northwest 5 kts down to Monterey Bay early and northwest winds 15-20 kts for the remainder of Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to be fading over Bodega Bay with west winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts down to Morro Bay but 15 kts south of there to Pt Conception and 15 kts for Southern CA.
- Sat (6/18) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 15 kts for North CA down to Monterey Bay and 15-20 kts south of there.
- Sun (6/19) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure returns with northwest winds forecast at 20-25 ks for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA.
- Mon (6/20) high pressure builds with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early building to 25-30 kts for North CA later and 20+ kts for Central CA.
- Tues (6/21) the usual summertime pressure gradient builds with northwest winds forecast at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 25 kts down to Bodega Bay with northwest winds 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino but northwest at 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward.
- Wed (6/22) northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward continuing over Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
- Thurs (6/23) no change is forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tahoe area 14,000+ ft today falling to 7,000 ft on 6/17-6/18 then building back to 14,000 ft or higher starting late on 6/20.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (6/16) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing northeast just east of New Zealand forming a trough being fed by 80 kt winds offering some reasonable support for gale development there. East of there the jet was falling southeast over the Southeast Pacific forming a ridge pushing down to 68S offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to push east over the Central South Pacific while weakening through Fri (6/17) offering some weak support for gale development then on Sat (6/18) south winds are to build to 140 kts pushing north under New Zealand forming a new trough southeast of New Zealand and moving into and joining the northern branch of the jet forming a pocket of 200 kt kt winds over the Central South Pacific by Mon (6/20) offering good support for gale development then pushing east on Tues (6/21) with most winds moving into the eastern quadrant of the trough targeting mainly Antarctica. Beyond 72 hours the models suggest additional wind energy is to be feeding onto the remnants of the above trough on Thurs (6/23) at 120 kts possibly starting to form a new trough over the Southeast Pacific offering some support for gale development.
Tiny swell from a small gale that formed over the far Southeast Pacific was starting to hit mainly Southern CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from a gale previously over the Tasman Sea was radiating towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below). And swell from a gale that developed from the remnants of the Tasman Sea Gale redeveloped southeast of New Zealand producing yet more swell radiating northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather system is forecast.
Small Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed over the far eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window Thurs PM (6/9) producing 40-45 kts south winds and seas 25 ft at 35S 115W aimed north. On Fri AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south while tracking slowly east with seas 25 ft aimed north at 35S 112W. This system was gone after that. Small southeast swell is possible for exposed breaks in Southern CA.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (6/17) at 2.2 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/18) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/19) fading from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 177 moving to 175 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/16) building to 1.3 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Sat (6/17) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/18) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 173 moving to 171 degrees
Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing in the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (6/8) producing 30-35 kt south winds over a decent sized area producing 22 ft seas at 43.75S 149.25E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/9) fetch was building to 35-40 kts aimed northeast with seas 23 ft at 48S 143.75E aimed northeast. Additional southwest fetch developed in the evening at 30-35+ kts over a broad area filling the Tasman Sea with seas 26 ft at 42S 150E aimed northeast. On Fri AM (6/10) southwest winds continued at 30+ kts aimed northeast with additional fetch to the south at 45 kts aimed well north with seas 24 ft at 45S 155E aimed northeast. Another fetch developed in the evening under Tasmania at 35-40 kts aimed due north with 22 ft seas from previous fetch at 42.5S 163E aimed northeast with a new area of seas at 24 ft at 50S 145E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/11) the new fetch took over filling the Tasman Sea over a 1,100 nmile long area at 35-45 kts from the south with 30 ft seas building at 43S 151.25E aimed north. In the evening fetch was lifting north at 35-45 kts filling the Tasman Sea with 26+ ft seas with a core at 32 ft at 43.25S 160.25E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/12) fetch as fading from 30-35 kts still filling the Tasman Sea and impacting West New Zealand with 28 ft seas fading at 36S 160E aimed northeast. Fetch holding at 35 kts in the evening with seas 26 ft at 37S 165E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/13) the original fetch is to be inland over New Zealand with a new pulse of 35-40 kt southwest winds in the Southern Tasman Sea producing 31 ft seas down at 54.5S 157E aimed northeast with seas from the original fetch fading from 22 ft at 37S 168E still in the Fiji swell window. In the evening the fetch is to become shadowed by New Zealand relative to Hawaii and Fiji with seas from previous fetch fading from 28 ft at 50S 160E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/14) all fetch and seas are to be gone. Possible solid swell to result for Fiji with filtered energy from Hawaii.
Fiji: Swell continues peaking on the morning of Wed (6/15) at 8.0 ft @ 16 secs (13 ft). Swell slowly fading through Fri (6/17). A second pulse to arrive on late afternoon on Fri (6/17) building to 4.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (7.0 ft) peaking Sat AM (6/18) at 4.9 ft @ 15 secs (7.4 ft). Swell fading out Sun AM (6/19). Swell Direction: 210 moving to 203 degrees
Hawaii (Oahu): Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/17) building to 1.1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (6/18) at 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). A bit more energy arrives on Sun (6/19) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (6/20) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.3 ft). Swell Direction: 221 degrees moving to 218 degrees
New Zealand Gale
On Monday PM (6/13) the Tasman Sea gale pushed into the far Southwest Pacific with a broad area of southwest winds at 35-40 kts generating seas of 31 ft at 51.5S 164.25E aimed up into the California swell window but partially shadowed by Auckland Island and not yet quite at Hawaii. On Tues AM (6/14) the gale was free and clear with 45 kt southwest winds aimed well to the northeast and seas building to 35 ft at 50.75S 173E. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds continued plodding east with 39 ft seas at 50.5S 177.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/15) southwest winds were fading from 35+ kts with seas 35 ft at 49.5S 168.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading out from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft over a large area at 49.25S 159.25W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (6/22) building to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (6/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Fri (6/24) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/25) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) mid-day. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) later. Swell slowly fading on Sat (6/25) from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/27) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Leftovers on Tues (6/28) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours starting Sun AM (12/19) a broad gale is to build southeast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a broad area with seas building. In the evening a broader fetch of south winds is forecast at 30-35 kts with seas building from 22 ft over a modest area at 50S 170W aimed north. Southwest fetch to continue Mon AM (6/20) at 35 kts with seas 25 ft over a semi decent sized area at 47S 165W aimed northeast. Fetch continuing in the evening at 35 kts from the southwest with seas 26 ft at 43S 168W aimed northeast. 30 kt south winds to continue Tues AM (6/21) with seas 25 ft at 38S 160W aimed northeast. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.
Massive Pool of Warm Water Building Subsurface
Cool Water Losing Coverage - Models Suggest Demise of La Nina
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected slowly fading out into Fall. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/15) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/16) Moderate plus east anomalies were over the KWGA centered at 160E. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at moderate strength while building east focused over the dateline if not east of there at the end of the model run on 6/23.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/15) A moderate Inactive MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it holding on day 5 of the model run then neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the Inactive signal effectively holding unchanged through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/16) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean Africa and is to push east to the Maritime continent and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase remaining stationary over the West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/15) A modest Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the West equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east to Central America on 7/5. A weak Active Phase is to track east into the KWGA on 6/30 moving to the Central Pacific and into Ecuador on 7/25 (the end of the model run). A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific 7/20 at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/13) A neutral MJO Phase was over the KWGA today with mostly weak east anomalies in control. A weak east anomaly pattern is to hold over the KWGA tracking slowly east to the dateline through the end of the model run on 7/11 with moderate east anomalies in pockets setting up on the dateline 6/26-7/1 then again on 7/5 through the end of the model run on 7/11. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to be west of the KWGA 6/26-7/5 but never entering it.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/16 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was over the entire KWGA with weak east anomalies in control. The forecast depicts weak west anomalies developing 6/20 filling the KWGA in parts through 7/8 while the broad Inactive Phase builds some. The Inactive Phase is to start fading 7/1 but with weak east anomalies redeveloping 7/8-7/24. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 7/20 pushing through the KWGA through 8/27 with west anomalies filling half the KWGA (to 150E) by 7/28 and holding thru the end of the Active Phase with solid east anomalies from 160E and points east of there. A weak Inactive phase is to follow 8/20 through the end of the model run on 9/13 but with the wind anomaly pattern holding with west anomalies west of 150E and east anomalies east of there. The core of east anomalies are to move from the dateline to 150W on 6/18 and holding there beyond. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today. The second contour is to fade on 6/17 then redevelop on 7/29 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding to 160E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 140E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 7/29 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to retrograde nearly out of the KWGA in early Sept. Suspect that is a temporary setback with a rebuild to the east starting in mid-Fall. That said, east anomalies are to remain centered at about 150W and not moving further west into the the KWGA beyond 165E in Sept. We are still waiting for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E (where it is now).
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present holding at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was tracking east some to 176W (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 130W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east connecting to a pocket of +2 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 now is picking up on that trend with the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 110W and poised to reaching the surface there if not breaching it at 133W and 119W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W at -3.5 degs C and steadily getting compressed east while weakening and discharging to the surface. A possible massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 130W though a finger was reaching east to 110W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a last stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -10 cms were limited to the area over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were surging east to 140W on the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 100W. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east at 135W with on pocket at 120W. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building in the the west pushing east and squeezing cool water in the east to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/15) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador building west to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/15): Warming temps were indicated from Ecuador to 120W and then weaker warming west of there to the dateline. A pocket of stronger warming was at 105W and 95W.
Hi-res Overview: (6/15) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/16) Today's temps were rising at -1.393 after falling some at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/16) Today's temps were rising at -0.495 degs after rising to -0.493 (6/9) and the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps have been rising steadily since 5/15. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/16) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.45 degs in July falling to -0.85 in Oct, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Dec and up to +0.25 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in late June and to -0.35 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.65 degs Oct-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold mid-Dec and rising from there forward to +0.20 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.441 in Dec and -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/16) the daily index was positive at +16.52 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling to +14.61 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.32 today and is just barely below its peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table