Saturday, June 15, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.3 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 17.2 secs from 191 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 11.7 secs from 325 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 4 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 8.1 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 205 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 188 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 6.8 ft @ 8.0 secs from 321 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 56.7 degs (042) and 51.4 degs (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/15) in North and Central CA northwest windswell was building from waist high or so and pretty jumbled by local northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist high and nearly clean but inconsistent and soft. At Santa Cruz there was no surf and clean. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and clean. In North Orange Co minimal southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high and lined up and clean and soft. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high or so and clean and slow and weak. North San Diego had surf at waist high and crumbled and textured and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and textured with some northeast lump. The South Shore was getting New Zealand swell with set waves 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves thigh high or so and heavily textured from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/15) in California background southern hemi swell was all but gone and only minimal north windswell was trying to build in. Hawaii was getting modest swell from a gale that tracked northeast from under New Zealand Fri-Sat (6/8) with seas to 39 ft. It should be bigger. This swell was pushing towards CA. And another gale developed while tracking east under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/12) with 39 ft seas aimed east. But no other swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Saturday (6/15) north winds were building somewhat in coverage over North CA waters at 20-25 kts reaching south to off the Golden Gate offering minor windswell potential for North and Central CA but with light north winds 10 kts nearshore for Central CA and 15 kts off the coast. Trades are to be 10-15 kts east of the Big Island of Hawaii but not north of there offering only limited east windswell potential mainly for the Big Island. On Sun (6/16) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to be developing along the North CA coast with north winds 20-25 kts down to Bodega Bay producing windswell down to maybe Big Sur. Local winds to be light northwest for Central CA. For Hawaii east trades to be building in coverage at 15 kts extending over 600 nmiles east of the Hawaiian Islands offering small short period east windswell for exposed east facing shores. On Monday (6/17) high pressure is to be building in solid at 1028 mbs 800 nmiles east of San Francisco with the pressure gradient building over North CA with north winds 25-30 kts solid and 20 kt north winds reaching south to a point west of Morro Bay resulting in building windswell for all of North and Central CA. But no fetch is to be nearshore for the area from just south of Pt Arena southward. For Hawaii east fetch is to continue from California at 15 kts extending in patches the whole way to the Islands resulting in building east windswell there. On Tues (6/18) the gradient is to be very solid with north winds 30-35 kts but limited to Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kt wind extending south off the coast for all of Central CA making for continued windswell along the North and Central CA coast. An eddy flow to continue for Pt Arena southward. Northeast fetch is to continue at 15 kts solid extending from CA to Hawaii with decent northeast windswell expected into east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sat (6/15) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena and 15 kts to Bodega Bay but 10 kts south of there to Pt Conception, building to 15 kts everywhere later. Sun (6/16) north winds are to be 25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena and 10 kts south of there down into Central CA. Monday (6/17) north winds to be 30 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA if not turning to an eddy flow (south winds) later. Tues (6/18) north winds to be 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino with light south (eddy flow) winds for Bodega Bay down over all of Central CA. More of the same on Wed (6/19) through Fri (6/21). Sat (6/22) north winds to be 25-30 kts over all of North CA and the eddy flow collapsing for Central CA with northwest winds 5-10 kts.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Saturday (6/15) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch ridging south to 65S and sweeping east from under New Zealand over the Central Pacific offering no support for gale development. A steep pinched trough was over the Southeast Pacific pushing hard north with its apex up at 32S 120W barely in the CA swell window and being fed by 110 kts offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours winds are to be building on Sun (6/16) in that trough to 120 kts offering more support for gale development but also pushing east of the CA swell window. By Monday (6/17) the ridge in the west is to be building while sweeping east down at 70S over Antarctic Ice pushing across the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Tuesday (6/18) the ridge is to continue filling the entire South Pacific pushing south to 67S and offering no support for gale development. If anything by Sat (6/22) winds are to be building well south of New Zealand at 140 kts pushing southeast and reinforcing the ridge while pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf offering no support for gale development. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is likely implicated in driving this ridge.
A gale built under New Zealand lifting northeast producing swell pushing towards Hawaii and CA (see New Zealand Gale below). And another gale formed south of New Zealand pushing east producing potential for sideband swell radiating northeast (see Southwest Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (6/6) a gale started pushing east under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 156E aimed east (214 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and not shadowed for both). On Fri AM (6/7) fetch started turning and lifting northeast at 45 kts from the southwest over a broader and solid area producing 39 ft seas at 58S 166E aimed east-northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale was just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 38 ft at 54.5S 172.5E (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed) aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale was tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 212 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale pushed north and reconsolidated east of North New Zealand producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing at 40+ kts and seas 28 ft at 50S 174W mainly from the original fetch (213 degs Scal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/9) the gale held stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 24 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and becoming shadowed by Tahiti) and no longer of interest. The gale faded and fell southeast from there.
Hawaii: Swell peaking on Sat AM (6/15) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft) early. Swell fading Sun (6/16) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/17) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (6/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs (3.0 ft). On Mon (6/17) swell building to 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft with set to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213-214 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (6/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs (3.0 ft). On Mon (6/17) swell building to 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft with set to 4.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.0-1.5 ft).Swell Direction: 211-216 degrees
Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/11) a gale developed due south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 31 ft at 62.5S 170E. In the evening 45 kt west-southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 60.5S 178W free and clear of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Wed AM (6/12) the gale continued east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds solid in coverage and seas 38 ft at 59.5S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with 32 ft seas at 57.5S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/13) the gale continued northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57S 142.5W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor. Small swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Small sideband swell is to radiate northeast arriving on Wed (6/19) at 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/20) from 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
On Wed (6/19) the gradient is to hold with 35-40 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino and 20 kt north winds extending south to a point off Monterey Bay resulting in windswell for all of North and Central CA. An eddy flow to continue for all of Central CA and up to Pt Arena. Trades to continue but spotty at 15 kts from California to a the Hawaiian Islands resulting in windswell along east facing shores but loosing some size. On Thurs (6/20) the gradient is to hold if not build south some producing 30-35 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena producing windswell radiating south but light winds if not an eddy flow (south winds) for Central CA and up to nearly Pt Arena. East winds relative to Hawaii are to fade to 10-15 kts within 300 nmiles of the Islands but 15+ kts from there the whole way to California with some windswell still radiating into east facing shores of the Islands. On Fri (6/21) more of the same is forecast with north winds 30-35 kts over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena with an eddy flow south of there resulting in decent windswell for all of North and Central CA. no fetch is to remain aimed at Hawaii with windswell fading out there. On Sat (6/22) north winds to be 25-30 kts for the entire North CA coast producing windswell radiating south. The eddy flow is to start fading and collapsing for Central CA. No windswell for Hawaii is expected.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Active MJO Developing - El Nino Warming to Hold Into Early 2020
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/14) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central and West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/15) east anomalies were moderately in control of the far East KWGA but with light west anomalies starting to develop in the core of the KWGA. The forecast is for east anomalies holding velocity and position from the dateline and point east of there for the next week while west anomalies build in the core of the KWGA to strong velocity at the end of the model run on 6/22. There is to be slowly building support for storm development over the next week, but that will have to overcome atmospheric momentum already predisposed to support the Inactive Phase of the MJO. But that situation is expected to start improving.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/14) The Inactive MJO pattern was gone from the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a Active MJO Phase building over the far West Pacific and nearly filling it at day 5 and peaking and filling the KWGA at day 10, fading some at day 15. The dynamic model is more aggressive indicating the Active Phase building stronger into the West Pacific at day 5 and solidly filling the KWGA at day 10 holding into day 15. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/15) The statistical model depicts a very weak Active Phase of the MJO over the Maritime Continent, and it is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent almost into the West Pacific at day 15 while remaining weak. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the Active Phase moderately strong over the East Maritime Continent/West Pacific at day 11, stalled there at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/10) This model depicts a moderate and fading split/dual lobed Inactive Phase over the Central & East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 6/15. A weak Active MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/23 pushing east while fading fast and barely limping over Central America on 7/10. Another moderate Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/8 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/14) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO almost gone from KWGA today with east anomalies limited to the far East KWGA. West anomalies are to build in fast filling the on 6/16 reaching strong status by 6/18 through 6/26 at Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) status. After that west anomalies are to be weaker but holding solid through the end of the model run on 7/12 with no east anomalies to be found.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/15) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO fading in the KWGA today and past it's peak but with west anomalies starting to build in the KWGA on 6/16 and then strong 6/20-6/28 while a weak Active Phase develops 6/24 and holding in the KWGA through 8/26 in some broken form. Weak to modest west anomalies are to be in the KWGA continuously during that timeframe. The Inactive Phase is to try and build weakly 8/27 through the end of the model run on 9/12 but with light west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/17 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggested it fading on 7/28. But it is to retract from California moving west to 150W. Today a secondary low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/23, though this is on and off from day to day. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into September, but not out. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/15) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a solid and steady area reaching east to 173W (previously 160E) while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 157W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding some at 142W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but is steadily getting shallower and retrograding to 105W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180-110W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 160E at +1 degs reaching east to 120W with a core to nearly +2 degs from 170W-125W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 110W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Positive anomalies have rebuilt lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 175E to 120W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/14) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But cooling developed along Peru last week, but that was fading today. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/13): 3 small pockets of cooling were between Ecuador west on the equator to 120W but they were fading compared to days past. Otherwise weak warming was on the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/13) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. There were now 3 small pockets of weak cooling from the Galapagos west to 120W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) Today's temps were rising at +0.752 degs, up from 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) Today temps were steady today at +0.718 today. Temps have been steady the last week.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/15) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and were holding today. The forecast indicates temps holding steady through the Fall into Winter and holding into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/15): The daily index was positive today at +4.64, positive the last 6 days. The 30 day average was rising at -5.68 today suggesting a fading Active MJO. The 90 day average was rising at -4.44, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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