Saturday, June 9, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 17.1 secs from 159 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 256 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 63.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 4.4 ft @ 8.0 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.6 ft @ 6.3 secs from 268 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.1 ft @ 21.4 secs from 222 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.6 ft @ 8.5 secs from 282 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 11.4 secs with northwest windswell 3.4 ft @ 10.6 secs from 310 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 18-20 kts. Water temp 53.1 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/9) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist to maybe chest high and blown to bits early with full whitecaps in control to the shore. Protected breaks were waist high and far cleaner but still modestly warbled and soft. But at least it was rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was small and weak with sets maybe waist high though mostly less, and clean. In Southern California up north north windswell was producing surf at waist high on the sets and clean but with a little bit of warble in the water but with clean surface conditions. In North Orange Co a mix of northwest windswell and minimal southern hemi swell was producing waves at thigh to waist high and lined up but weak and inconsistent with south wind putting some moderate texture on it. South Orange Country's best breaks was getting more windswell than southern hemi swell with sets in the waist to maybe chest high range on the peak and soft but with clean conditions and no wind early. In North San Diego surf was waist to chest high and pretty clean and lined up but soft and looking mainly like northwest windswell. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was starting to get new southern hemi swell with waves chest high or so on the sets and clean and lined up but slow and inconsistent. The East Shore was getting wrap around southeast swell mixed with east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped by east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/9) southern hemi swell was starting to hit Hawaii and California from a decent gale that developed in the deep Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/2) pushing north producing seas to 37 ft. And a secondary fetch followed Sun (6/3) adding more 37-40 ft seas on top pushing northeast. So a decent run of southern hemi swell looks possible for California with sideband energy for Hawaii. Also locally generated northwest windswell was hitting exposed breaks in California. A broader but weak system traversed the Southwest Pacific Thurs-Sat (6/9) but only produced 28-30 ft seas aimed mainly east with little hope for meaningful swell to result. And two tropical systems are in flight in the Northern Hemisphere. A cutoff low is forecast Sun-Mon (6/11) in the Central South Pacific with a tiny area of 28 ft seas aimed north. After that nothing else of interest is forecast.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday AM (6/9) local junky short period northwest windswell was producing some barely rideable waves and is forecast to continue doing the same thing.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than possible tropical activity (see Tropical Update below) and more local windswell.
California: On Saturday AM (6/9) high pressure at 1030 mbs was centered 900 nmiles west of Pt Conception CA while weak low pressure at 1010 mbs was in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska poised to move onshore over Vancouver Island. The result was a weak pressure gradient displaced south along the Central CA coast producing 15-20 kt north winds from Pt Reyes southward and up to 20-25 kts near Pt Conception making for junky short period local north windswell there. More of the same is forecast on Sun (6/10) but with the high strengthening and moving to within 300 nmiles of the Central CA coast while low pressure moves inland over Southern Canada with north winds building to 25-30 kts over Central CA and 20 kts up to Pt Arena. Windswell building some but still very raw and junky. On Mon (6/11) high pressure at 1026 mbs is to still be positioned about 700 nmiles west of Central CA ridging towards California producing a gradient and 20-25 kt north winds from Bodega Bay south to Pt Conception resulting in building but still very junky short period windswell mainly for Central CA. On Tues (6/12) the gradient is to be fading and focused over North CA producing north winds at 20-25 kts with perhaps a weak eddy flow over all of Central CA. Smaller and cleaner windswell is possible south of Pt Reyes. See QuikCASTs for details.
Hawaii: On Saturday (6/9) fetch off the south end of the high pressure system northeast of the Islands (see above) was building and pushing 15-20 kt east winds from off California the whole way to Hawaii and focusing north more offering increasing odds for windswell production along exposed east shores of the Hawaii Islands. And more of the same is forecast on Sunday (6/10). The gradient is to slowly fade some on Mon (6/11) producing 15 kt easterly trades from California to Hawaii but fading in coverage later resulting in decreasing easterly short period windswell for exposed east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. By Tues (6/12) that fetch is to hold early at 15 kts then starting to get spottier in coverage later with windswell fading. See QuikCASTs for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Two tropical systems are being monitored:
Tropical Storm Aletta was 480 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico on Thurs AM (6/7) with 55 kt winds tracking west-northwest. Aletta built unexpectedly and reached hurricane strength in the evening with winds to 90 kts (105 mph) continuing on a west-northwest track at 15.5N 110.1W and just barely in the Pt Dume swell window at 153 degrees and 1200 nmiles out. Strength increased rapidly to 120 kts (138 mph) on Fri AM (6/8) at 15.8N 111.1W or 150 nmiles south of the islands of Socorro with seas estimated at 34 ft, or on the 159 degree track 1150 nmiles out from Pt Dume. In the evening this system was fading with winds 110 kts (127 mph) positioned at 16.0N 112W with seas 32 ft and still on the 159 degree track and on the 160 degree track to Pt Dume. On Sat AM (6/9) Aleeta was fading with winds 90 kts (104 mph) at 16.3N 112.9W with seas fading from 28 ft still heading on a west-northwest track. In the evening winds are to be down to 70 kts and a rapid fade is forecast thereafter.
Pt Dume: Swell arrival starting around noon on Sun (6/10) with period 14 secs building to maybe 2 ft @ 14 secs late (2.5 ft) holding overnight then peaking on Mon AM (6/11) at 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and interacting with southern hemi swell in the water too. Swell Direction: 153-160 degrees
Tropical Storm Maliksi - On Sat AM (6/9) Maliksi was 450 nmiles south-southwest of the southern tip of Japan tracking northeast with winds 45 kts and seas estimated at 22 ft. This system is to build slightly into Sun AM (6/10) with winds 55 kts and seas 28 ft 300 nmiles south of Southwest Japan. From there Maliksi is to start slowly weakening while tracking northeast positioned 600 nmiles east of North Japan on Tues AM (6/12) with winds 35 kts and fading fast. No swell of interest is forecast to results for our forecast area. the fact that it recurved northeast at all given the time of year and the atmospheres predisposition towards La Nina is of interest through.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday AM (6/9) the gradient is to start building later with 20 kts north winds building from Pt Arena southward and up to 30 kts over Pt Conception. On Sun (6/10) north winds are to be 20 kts from Cape Mendocino and 25 kts from the south end of Monterey Bay southward and up to 30 kts solid over Pt Conception. Monday (6/11) the gradient is to be lifting north with 20 kt north winds over the entire North and Central Coast from Pt Arena early building north to Cape Mendocino later. Tues AM (6/12) the gradient is to lift north with north winds 20 kts over North CA with a near eddy flow over Central CA waters. Wednesday the gradient is to shift south some with 20-25 kts north winds over all of North and Central CA. More of the same on Thurs (6/14) but with north winds becoming more focused over North Ca later at 25 kts but 20 kts still down to Pt Conception. Friday (6/15) the gradient is to be entirely focused on North CA with 30 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino and a developing eddy flow (south winds) over Central CA and continuing on Sat (6/16).
On Saturday (6/9) the southern branch of the jetstream was pushing under New Zealand down at 63S tracking weakly east at 80 kts and continuing that path the whole way across the South Pacific with no troughs and no support for gale formation indicated. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast with a zonal flow (straight west to east path) projected with the jet falling south even more down to 66S traversing the entire South Pacific. A very cutoff trough is forecast developing in the mid-latitudes of the Central South Pacific on Sun (6/10) being fed by 100 kts winds, but it is to be totally cutoff and offering no real support for gale development. Also there's is some suggestion that another trough might try to develop in the mid-latitudes of the Southeast Pacific on Tues (6/12) with 100 kt winds feeding it, but it too is to be cutoff by the more dominant southerly flow down at 65S offering little hope. Beyond 72 hours no change is forecast until late Wed (6/13) when a weak trough is to start developing in the deep Central South Pacific being fed by 80-90 kts winds pushing north-northeast and building to 110 kts on Thurs (6/14) offering weak support for gale formation, but moving east of the California swell window on Friday (6/15). By Sat (6/16) the zonal flow is to return with 110 kt winds sweeping east over mainly the deep South Central Pacific at 65S with no troughs indicated.
On Saturday (6/9) swell from a decent gale was pushing northeast from the deep South Central Pacific and hitting Hawaii and starting to tickle the buoys in California (see South Pacific Gale below). Also a broad but weak system traversed the South Pacific Wed-Fri (6/8) producing 28-30 ft seas (see Weak Southwest Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a cutoff gale to form over the upper latitudes of the Central South Pacific.
On Sat PM (6/9) a gale is to develop south of Tahiti producing a small area of south winds at 35-40 kts aimed north with seas building from 26 ft over a tiny area at 37S 152W. On Sun AM (6/10) south fetch is to be holding at 35-40 kts with seas building to 28 ft at 35.5S 149W aimed due north. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the south and stationary with seas holding at 28 ft at 32S 148W aimed north. fetch is to fade Mon AM (6/11) from 30 kts from the south and seas fading from 24 ft at 31.5S 147W. This system is to be gone after that. Given this systems rather north position, if it forms as forecast, some decent swell could result for Tahiti, Hawaii and California. But cutoff gales like this one seem to always be overhyped by the model.
South Pacific Gale (Swell #2S)
A new gale developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Fri AM (6/1) generating a decent sized area of 45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 62S 163.5W. In the evening the fetch is to lift north with a broader core of 45 kt south winds with 36 ft seas over a building area at 58S 157.5W. On Sat AM (6/2) 40 kt south winds continued lifting north with seas 37 ft at 53.5S 151W. In the evening southwest fetch rapidly faded to 30 kts and seas fading from 32 ft at 49S 150W as a new fetch started developing southwest of the original fetch producing south winds at 45 kts over a solid area and sea built from 36 ft at 58S 167W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/3) 45 kt south winds were lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 54S 155W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 38 ft at 50S 144W. On Mon AM (6/4) fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 48.5S 138W aimed northeast. This system faded from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Swell peaking on Sat (6/9) building to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (3.5-4.0 ft). A secondary pulse is forecast arriving later Sun (6/10) building to 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/11) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 181 degrees
Southern CA: Swell arrival on Sat (6/9) building to 1.9 ft @ 20 secs later (3.5 ft). On Sun (6/10) swell building to 3.5 ft @ 18 secs later (6.0-6.5 ft). Swell holding on Mon (6/11) at 3.9-4.0 ft @ 17 secs (6.5-7.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (6/12) from 3.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (6/13) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (6/140 fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198-204 degrees centered on 200 degrees
North CA: Swell arrival on Sat (6/9) building to 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/10) building to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs late (4.7 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/11) at 3.0-3.1 ft @ 18 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (6/12) from 2.9 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (6/13) from 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (6/14) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-202 degrees centered on 198 degrees
Weak Southwest Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/6) a broad low pressure system developed southeast of New Zealand generating 35-40 kt west winds over a broad area just north of the Ross Ice Shelf aimed east with seas building to 29 ft at 58S 175.5E. On Thurs AM (6/7) winds were southwest at 35 kts while tracking east with seas building to 31 ft at 57S 172W. In the evening southwest winds continued at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed east-northeast with seas 29 ft at 57S 160W. On Fri AM (6/8) fetch was start to fade from the west at 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft down at 60S 147W. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts over a smaller area aimed east with 27 ft seas fading at 63S 130W. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Small background swell is expected to arrive on late Wed (6/13) building to 1 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Thurs (6/14) pushing 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (6/15) at 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
Southern CA: Small background swell arriving on Fri (6/15) pushing 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs late (1.5 ft). Additional energy arriving on Sat (6/16) building to 1.5 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-208 degrees Swell possibly being overrun after that by new swell.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
California: Wednesday (6/13) high pressure is to retrograde some relative to California positioned 900 nmiles west of Central CA with the local pressure gradient holding and falling south some with north winds 20-25 kts from Pt Arena southward over all of Central CA producing more junky windswell. This pattern to hold on Thurs (6/14) and then on Friday the gradient is to lift north some with north winds 25 kts over all of North CA building to 30 kts late and 20 kts mainly just off the coast of most of Central CA. Increasing north windswell for North and Central CA. On Sat (6/16) a variant on the same theme is expected with north winds 30 kts over Cape Mendocino but an eddy flow developing from just south of Pt Arena southward with windswell and improving local conditions forecast there.
Hawaii: On Wed (6/13) the gradient is to return with 15 kt east winds again reaching from California to Hawaii producing easterly windswell and well focused on Hawaii. But on Thurs (6/14) the fetch is to steadily weakening and breaking up with easterly windswell decreasing in size later. After that trades are to fall below the 15 kt threshold and no windswell is to be generated through Sat (6/16).
No swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
Large Kelvin Wave Continues Slowly Erupting on Equatorial EPac
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 - Swell Generation Potential (for California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (6/8) 5 day average winds were from the east over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific but far weaker over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the equatorial East Pacific and neutral over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/9) Light east anomalies were over the core of the KWGA and strong west anomalies were east of the KWGA filling the equatorial East Pacific. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to hold for a few days, then die on 6/12 with light west anomalies building over the entirety of the KWGA by 6/13 and holding through the end of the forecast period on 6/16. The current Inactive Phase of the MJO is now looking to fade out quickly. Strong westerly anomalies are forecast to hold over the equator south of California to a point south of Hawaii through the end of the forecast period. Interesting. This should feed the demise of La Nina.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/8) The Active/Wet Phase of the MJO was now weakly over the West Pacific almost reaching to the dateline. The statistical model depicts the Active/Wet Phase is to dissipate by day 5 of the run and hold with a neutral pattern in control through the end of the model run (day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive Phase possibly developing at day 15 in the far West Pacific. The models are now at least in sync regarding the short to mid-term forecast.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/9) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the West Pacific and decaying. It is to rapidly decay while tracking east moving over the dateline at day 7 and then to the West Indian Ocean at day 15. The GEFS model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/9) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase developing over the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to very slowly track east and moving up to Central America on 7/19 (at the end of the model run). Basically a steady state frozen pattern is to set up per this model.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8) East anomalies in the KWGA to dissipate on 6/11 with weak west anomalies taking hold 6/12-6/19. Then weak east anomalies are to develop through 6/23. after that a neutral wind pattern is forecast but with solid west anomalies on the dateline and east to 125W (just south of California) through the entire period from 6/8-7/6. That should significantly damped upwelling in the NINo3.4 area and feed warm water buildup associated with a large Kelvin Wave starting to erupt there now.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/9) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was starting to build over the KWGA with neutral anomalies in control of the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO is to fill the KWGA by 6/10 but with a short-lived pulse of east anomalies forecast in the West KWGA 6/9-6/12 then fading. After that weak west anomalies are forecast filling the KWGA while the Active Phase holds through 6/24. A weak Inactive signal is to follow over the KWGA 6/25-7/14 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 7/20 through 9/5 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east some for the foreseeable future and building from 2 contour lines to 3 starting 7/12. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and inland over California. The La Nina bias is gone. The expectation is that the atmosphere and ocean will begin to be coupled 3 months after the start of the transition or on 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/9) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is stable after moving eastward from the dateline last winter to 165W on 5/15 to 160W 5/22 and 159W on 5/29 and then back to 160W today from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 40 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific negative temperatures are gone as warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are building in from the west at depth. Warm anomalies at depth were moving east at +3.0 degs at 150W down 150 meters pushing east with +4 degs anomalies at 110W and reaching east to the Galapagos. These waters are starting to breach the surface from 125W and points east of there. It appears the Kelvin Wave is gaining eastward momentum an starting to erupt at the oceans surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 depicts a large Kelvin Wave starting at 160W at +3.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to 100W with lesser warm water reaching the Ecuadorian coast. The warm pool was breaching the surface between 95W-135W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) This update has upgraded yet again. Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific at +5-10 cms reaching from New Guinea to the Galapagos with one break there and then 0-5 cm anomalies reaching east of there to Ecuador. No negative anomalies were indicated expect just off the coast of northern Peru. The La Nina cool pool is gone.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/8) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak localized cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and very shallow. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 140W and also over a broad but weaker pocket well south of the equator from 90W to 115W. A broad area of warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): A small pocket of cooling was occurring just off Ecuador to the Galapagos. A weak warming trend was indicated from the Galapagos west to 145W. Generic weak spotty cooling was off the immediate Peru coast.
Hi-res Overview: (6/8) A slightly more coherent pocket of cool water was indicated along the immediate coast of Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. Weak warming was also further off the coast of Peru to 115W and reaching north to the equator. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator between 150W-160W and south of 4S and steadily loosing density and drifting west.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were falling some at -0.844, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today temps were rising some at -0.111, up from -0.151 on 6/7. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/9) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and have been slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and -0.30 in early April. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with neutral temps now, pushing up to +0.55 degs on July 1 and rising in early Oct to +0.90 degs and +1.00 degs in Nov and holding there into the Jan 2019 timeframe. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to minimal weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-May Plume depicts temps at 0.0 degs as of 5/18 and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.4 in August and +0.7 in November and +0.8 in December hold there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/9): The daily index was rising today at +2.95. The 30 day average was falling today at +2.46 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at +3.78 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was holding in the atmosphere biased weakly towards La Nina but even that bias was fading. This is expected for a month or two more.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/9) Today the index was rising some at -0.89 after dropping to -1.04 on 6/5, down from -0.70 on 5/20 and -0.60 on 5/17, and the high of -0.36 on Fri (5/11) and -0.38 on Thurs (5/10), down from -0.35 on 4/26, but up from -1.02 on 4/5 and up from -1.13 on 3/27. The trend is upward but still less than the -0.33 reading in late Feb. That was was up from -1.11 on 1/29. The trend suggests La Nina is not gone, but fading steadily. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative through Jan 2018. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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