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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, June 8, 2021 2:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/7 thru Sun 6/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell Fading Out in CA and HI
Models Paint an Optimistic Picture

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 8, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.0 secs from 192 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 8.0 secs from 38 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 198 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 6 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 65.7 (Topanga 103), 65.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.2 (Del Mar 153), 63.7 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 11.5 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 10.1 secs from 257 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.7 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 214 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 299 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 49.8 (029), 56.1 degs (SF Bar 142) and 56.7 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/8) North and Central CA had waves at chest high and pretty warbled and soft with small whitecaps and pretty raw. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and weak and barely rideable with fairly clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up but pretty textured and uneven early with whitecaps outside the kelp. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to pushing near chest high and lined up and fairly clean but inconsistent. Central Orange County had set waves at shoulder high and lined up coming from the south with some light texture on it and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to head high and lined up with some texture on it but not bad. Well rideable. North San Diego had sets waves at chest high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with sets waist high or so a top spots and clean but generally weak and inconsistent. The East Shore was getting limited east windswell with waves waist high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/8) California was getting fading south swell associated with a gale that formed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (5/27) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast with 28-30 ft seas lingering into Fri (5/28). Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/7) producing 31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Another is forecast in the South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (6/11) producing up to 38 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east-northeast. And perhaps a stronger system is to form southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (6/15) producing 46 ft seas aimed northeast with 36 ft seas lingering pushing east. So the Southern Hemi is starting to look hopeful.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/8) no swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (6/9) northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early and holding through the day pushing maybe 15 kts near Pt Conception. No windswell production forecast.
  • Thurs (6/10) a broad low pressure system is to be off North CA with light winds for North CA early and northwest winds 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay early building to 20-25 kts near Pt Conception later but with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino.
  • Fri (6/11) south winds are to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino early and calm south of there building northwest at 20 kts from Monterey southward early. In the afternoon south winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15-20 kts from Monterey southward.
  • Sat (6/12) south winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA and 15+ kts for Big Sur southward. In the afternoon Cape Mendocino to have south winds 10 kts and northwest 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward and 20 kts from Monterey southward to Pt Conception.
  • Sun (6/13) North CA to have northwest winds 5-10 kts winds and northwest 10-15 kts over Central CA holding all day.
  • Mon (6/14) north winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA from Monterey southward and holding all day.
  • Tues (6/15) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 20 kts from Monterey southward early building to 15 kts in the afternoon in the evening with 20-25 kts northwest winds for Central CA south of Monterey Bay.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 8,500 ft today dropping to 5,500 ft in the late evening of 6/9, then rising to 12,000 ft on 6/10 pretty much holding before rising to 14,000 ft or greater on 6/15 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/8) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging southeast down at 70S under New Zealand and over the Ross Ice Shelf to the Central South Pacific offering no support for gale development. The jet was lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific but weak perhaps offering limited potential for the future. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start developing under New Zealand on Thurs (6/10) being fed by 130 kts winds building to 160 kts on Fri (6/11) offering good support for gale development over the West Central South Pacific and tracking northeast. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to start fading over the Central South Pacific on Sat (6/13). At that time a new trough is to start building in the west being fed by 140 kts winds lifting northeast moving to the Southeast Pacific late on Sun (6/14) again offering support for gale development. And maybe another trough is to be behind that in the Central South Pacific on Tues (6/15) offering some support for gale development. An improving pattern is suggested.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/8) swell was fading out in California from a gale previously in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Swell was radiating north from 2 gales previously in the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale and Small Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another fetch of southwest winds are to start building almost east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (6/10) at 50-55 kts getting traction and producing seas of 28-30 ft near 57.5S 167.5W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 50 kts over a small area pushing east fast with seas building from 38 ft over a tiny area at 56.25S 157.5W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (6/11) fetch is to push east at 40+ kts with seas to 33 ft at 56.5S 146W aimed east. In the evening a secondary fetch is to develop northwest of the old fetch at 35-45 kts from the southwest with 29 ft seas over a modest area at at 51S 157W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/12) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 27 ft at 46S 155W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing Sun AM (6/6) in the deep South Central Pacific producing 40 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas building. The gale lifted northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 60.75S 146.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/7) the gale was fading while lifting northeast with 35+ kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 57S 136W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be gone. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/14) building later to 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Tues (6/15) to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/15) building later to 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189-192 degrees

 

Small Central Pacific Gale
Also on Mon AM (6/7) a cutoff low developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific producing a small area of 50 kt south winds and seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 38S 142W aimed due north. The gale was stationary in the evening producing 40-45 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 40S 143W aimed north. On Tues AM (6/8) the gale was easing east with 35-40 kt south winds over a small area and seas fading from 21 ft at 40S 141W aimed north. No additional fetch anticipated. Whatever swell is to be generated is to arrive in sync with swell from the Central Pacific Gale (above).

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the upper latitudes of the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (5/26) producing 40-50 kt south winds over a tiny area with seas building from 21 ft at 35S 137W aimed northeast. In the evening 55-60 kt south to southwest winds built producing 38 ft seas at 34.25S 128.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/27) the gale was holding with 45-55 kt southwest winds tracking east and seas 39 ft at 33.25S 120.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was falling south fast with 35-45 kt southwest winds and 36 ft seas at 39.25S 116.5W aimed northeast and east of the CA swell window but with a secondary fetch 35-40 kts over a solid area from the southwest with seas 26 ft at 41S 130.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (5/28) 35-45 kt west and southwest winds held position with seas 30 ft at 44S 120W aimed mostly east. In the evening the gale held position producing south and southwest winds at 30-35 kts aimed northeast with seas 26-28 ft at 43.5S 120W aimed northeast. On Sat (5/29) south winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 50S 135W aimed north. Fetch and seas fading fast from there. Some swell is radiating north towards the US West Coast.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Tues (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Dribbles on Tues (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad low pressure system is to start developing Thurs (6/10) in the Northern Gulf falling southeast to a point just off North CA late Thurs/early Fri (6/11) producing up to 14 ft seas at 45N 148W aimed southeast. Maybe some windswell to result.

And another low is to develop over the North Dateline region on Mon (6/14) producing up to 22 ft seas at 48N 175W aimed southeast and falling southeast. Low odds of this actually occurring.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours on Sat AM (6/12) a new gale is to be building under New Zealand producing a decent sized area of 40 kt west winds with seas building from 28 ft over a small area at 58S 166E aimed east. In the evening the gael is to be just southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 55.5S 179.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds to be 45 kts over a larger area with a core at 50-55 kts with seas building from 36 ft at 51.5S 173.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch a broad area of 45+ kt southwest winds is to be filling the South Central Pacific with 39 ft seas over a broad area at 49.5S 155W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch is to be fading from 50 kts in its core but a huge area of 35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 33 ft over a large area at 48S 151W aimed northeast. In the evening a core of 45-50 kts southwest winds is to be south of the original fetch with 36-38 ft seas at 59S 134W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (6/15) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the west-southwest with seas 38 ft at 59S 130W aimed east. The gals is to fade from there. Interesting...

And maybe another broad gale is to be right behind on Tues PM (6/15) producing 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 54S 171W aimed northeast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Weak Active MJO In Control - Warming Continues on Equator - SOI Lowest in a Year
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves possibly arriving off Ecuador. The forecast suggests continued west anomalies in the KWGA for the next 3 months, but less coverage and strength than previously forecast.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/8) mostly weak west anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for weak west anomalies continuing coverage over the KWGA till 6/9 then east anomalies start building in the core of the KWGA to moderate strength and holding till the end of the model run on 6/15.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/7) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the Pacific today with the Inactive Phase building over the Maritime continent. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase tracking east in to the West KWGA at day 5 of the model run and nearly filling it on day 10, continuing at moderate strength on day 15. The dynamic model projects the Inactive Phase reaching the KWGA on day 10 but very weak, and gone with a neutral pattern in play on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/8) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Pacific today and is to track east to North Africa on day 15 at weak to non-existent status. The dynamic model suggests the same thing with the Active Phase at non-existent status on day 15 in the Central Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/7) A weak Active Phase (wet air) was over the East Pacific today with a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) moving into the far West KWGA. The Active Phase is to push east into Central America on 6/17. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA on 6/12 pushing east to the East Pacific and over Central America on 7/7. A new very weak Active Phase is to build in the west on 7/7 moving to the East Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/17.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/7) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was over the Maritime Continent and KWGA with modest west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA through 6/10 then retrograding to the far West KWGA as east anomalies redevelop over the KWGA focused on the dateline 6/11 through 6/20, then dissipating. Weak west anomalies are to hold over the West KWGA till 6/25. Then after that a dead neutral winds anomaly pattern is suggested till the end of the model run on 7/5 with no MJO influence.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA. Weak west anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to continue filling the KWGA through 7/18 with weak west anomalies reaching to nearly the dateline through that time period. East anomalies are to be just east of the dateline and filling the Central and East Pacific over this duration and dipping into the KWGA 6/11-6/15. Another weak Active pulse is to try and develop 7/18 through the end of the model run on 9/5. Modest west anomalies are to prevail in the Western KWGA. East anomalies are to hold solid from the dateline eastward but easing west into the KWGA to 165E 7/26 through 8/27. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias has 1 contour lines reaching east into the Southwest US. This contour line is to shift steadily east to 130W on 7/8 holding till 8/11 then rebuilding west to the dateline. A single contour low pressure bias is to ease east reaching 165-170E in mid-July, then retrograding to 150E at the end of the model run. This suggest nearly a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. But over all we are moving to a neutral ENSO position. East anomalies that have been solid over the KWGA since 10/1/20 are fading and have now migrating east of the KWGA with no return in sight, instead focused over the East Pacific (from the dateline east to a point south of California - aka the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge). The end of La Nina is here according to NOAA. But atmospherically we suspect its remnants will linger into Jan of 2022.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 159W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meter deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1-2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 173W and +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 145W and points east of there pushing near the surface at 110W but just 5 meters under it and holding that way into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates much the same with 1-2 deg warm anomalies moving east subsurface to 87W and reaching to the surface there indicative of a Kelvin Wave poised off the Galapagos. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were all but gone with residuals getting squeezed to the surface by the Kelvin Wave near Peru. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) A slight decrease in sea heights was indicated with readings 0 to +5 cms over almost the entire equatorial Pacific but certainly not continuous. No negative anomalies were present on the equator or along the coasts of Peru, Central America and up to Baja Mexico or Southern California. The massive cold triangle that had previously formed over the equator is gone. The demise of La Nina is occurring now.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/7) The latest images show steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and almost contiguous. A previous upwelling event (cool anomalies) was all but gone along Peru and getting steadily weaker. A pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Another weak pocket of warm water was off Chile and outer waters off Southern Peru. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/7): Sign of warming were occurring in pockets along Peru and Ecuador. Perhaps this is a sign of an upwelling warm water event.
Hi-res Overview: (6/7) Weakly warmer than normal waters were on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline with a distinct pocket of warming along Ecuador. Elsewhere a generic area of warm water was west of Central America. A mix of generic cool and warm water was west of Peru. A very weak area of cool water was along the immediate coast of Peru and fading fast. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/8) Today's temps were rising at -0.459, the highest recently but previously have been in the -0.75 range since early April. Before that temps peaked at +0.714 on 3/16. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/8) Today temps were rising slightly again to +0.176 today (the highest is a year) previously peaking at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3, rising to to -0.982 on 1/21. Temps are on a steady increase.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/8) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May. The forecast indicates temps rising to -0.05 degs in late June holding into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.50 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.30 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a demise of La Nina with an ENSO neutral trend beyond biased slightly negative. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept e and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/8): The daily index was rising but still negative at -10.33. The 30 day average was falling to -0.26, the lowest in a year, peaking at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling slightly at +1.15, the lowest in a year. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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