Saturday, June 8, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 195 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 6.6 secs from 44 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.0 secs from 184 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 59.9 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 9.3 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 199 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.5 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.1 secs from 189 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 7.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 18-20 kts. Water temp 54.0 degs (042) and 48.4 degs (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/8) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at chest to maybe head high at top breaks and clean but soft with some texture on it. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and soft and mushy but mostly clean. At Santa Cruz windswell was producing set waves at chest high and clean but soft with little form. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at shoulder high and lined up and clean but soft. In North Orange Co surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and gutless and crumbled from light south wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting leftover southern hemi swell mixed with windswell at waist high or so and soft and pretty textured. North San Diego had surf at thigh to maybe waist high and soft and heavily textured from south wind and unremarkable. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting no real swell with waves thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at knee to thigh high and heavily textured from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/8) in California windswell was the only game in town and only at exposed breaks. Hawaii was getting no swell or surf of interest. A gale has tracked through the Tasman Sea producing swell radiating towards Fiji and Hawaii. And a larger gale tracked northeast from under New Zealand putting swell in the water and it is radiating northeast towards our forecast area. But nothing else is to follow.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Saturday (6/8) the usual summertime pressure gradient was in place along the California coast producing north winds at 25-30 kts off of North CA and 20 kts along Central CA making for jumbled raw northwest windswell at exposed breaks with the fetch and gradient lifting north later in the day. 15 kt east winds were extending from California to a point 350 nmiles east of Hawaii with some limited windswell from this fetch possible arriving later along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. On Sun (6/9) the gradient is to lift north with north fetch limited to the Cape Mendocino area at 25 kts producing windswell radiating south into Central CA but with an eddy flow (south winds) from Bodega Bay southward making for improving conditions. East fetch is to be fading 600 nmiles east of Hawaii at 15 kts likely not producing meaningful windswell. Monday (6/10) the gradient is to be lifting north with north winds 25 kts limited to North Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow south of there to Pt Conception. Minimal north windswell is to be produced for North and Central CA. No trades or windswell of interest is expected for Hawaii. On Tuesday (6/11) the gradient is to be limited to extreme South Oregon producing north winds at 25 kts offering limited north windswell only for North CA. A light flow if not eddy flow to be in control for most of North Ca and all of Central CA. No windswell production is forecast for Hawaii.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/8) north winds were 25-30 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. Sunday (6/9) north winds are to be 25 kts only for Cape Mendocino and an eddy flow (south winds) to be in control south of there. Monday (6/10) light winds are forecast for the entirety of the California coast. Tues-Thurs (6/13) a light flow (10 kts or less) is forecast for all nearshore waters of the CA coast. Fri (6/14) light winds to continue but north at 20 kts for North Cape Mendocino and 15 kts from the north for Pt Conception later. Sat (6/15) north winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but light elsewhere south of there.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Saturday (6/8) the jetstream was pushing hard north just east of New Zealand at 150 kts forming a well organized trough with it's apex up at 33S 170W still offering good support for gale development. But southeast of there a solid ridge was pushing south into Antarctica over the bulk of the South Pacific Ocean offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to be steadily weakening while winds push southeast over the bulk of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development in the upper atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (6/12) a split jetstream flow is to become more pronounced with the influential southern branch tracking east down at 62S under New Zealand and into the Southwestern Pacific at 110 kts offering no support for gale development. And a new burst of wind energy is to develop on Thurs (6/13) at 130 kts down at 70S and sweeping east over Antarctic Ice and holding though moderating into Sat (6/15) completely shutting down support for gale development.
A gale developed in the Tasman Sea tracking northeast east generating swell that is to hit Fiji then push towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below). Another gale built under New Zealand lifting northeast producing swell pushing towards Hawaii and CA (see New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast in the greater South Pacific.
Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing south of Tasmania Wed AM (6/5) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 49.5S 152.0 E aimed northeast targeting Fiji well. Fetch continued tracking northeast into the Tasman Sea in the evening but fading to 35 kts from the south-southwest with seas 34 ft at 46S 160E aimed well at Fiji. On Thurs AM (6/6) the fetch was just west if not impacting New Zealand at 30 kts aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 29 ft at 42.5S 167W aimed like the wind. The gale and seas faded from there. Possible swell to result for Fiji and the surrounding area.
Fiji: Expect swell arrival late evening on Sat (6/8) local time (11 PM) with period 19 secs and size small but building. Swell to start peaking just before sunrise Sun (6/9) with period 18 secs and peaking through mid-day at 8 ft @ 17-18 secs (14 ft Hawaiian) with sets to 10.6 ft @ 17 secs (17-18 ft Hawaiian). Residuals on Mon (6/10) fading from 7.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (10 ft Hawaiian). Swell Direction: 196-206 degs focused on 205-207 degs
Hawaii: Filtered swell is to pass Fiji pushing towards Hawaii and arriving on Thurs (6/13) and building to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri AM (6/14) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft).
New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (6/6) a gale started pushing east under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 156E aimed east (214 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and not shadowed for both). On Fri AM (6/7) fetch started turning and lifting northeast at 45 kts from the southwest over a broader and solid area producing 39 ft seas at 58S 166E aimed east-northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale was just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 38 ft at 54.5S 172.5E (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed) aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale was tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 212 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale is to push north and reconsolidate east of North New Zealand producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing at 40+ kts and seas 27 ft at 46S 173W mainly from the original fetch (213 degs Scal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/9) the gale is to hold stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 25 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and becoming shadowed by Tahiti) and no longer of interest. The gale is to fade and fall southeast from there.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (6/14) with period 19+ secs and size building steadily through the day to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to near 6.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat AM (6/15) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 196 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
On Wednesday (6/12) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for the East Pacific with north winds 10 kts for exposed California waters. Trades to be 10 kts from the east for Hawaii resulting in no windswell for exposed east facing shores. On Thurs (6/13) no windswell production is forecast for CA or HI. On Fri (6/14) north winds to build to 20 kts for the CA-OR border but no further south offering only minimal windswell potential for Cape Mendocino. North winds to be 10 kts for the bulk of North and Central CA waters. Trades are to be 10 kts for Hawaii offering nothing. More of the same is expected on Sat (6/15).
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Inactive MJO Holding in KWGA - El Nino Forecast Steady
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/7) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central and West Pacific. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/8) east anomalies were moderately in control of the whole of the KWGA with no west anomalies to be found. The forecast is for east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/15. There is to be steadily decreasing support for storm development for the next week and likely beyond as these east anomalies take hold and start suppressing atmospheric momentum.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/7) An Inactive MJO pattern was fading but still in control of the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase steadily fading over the West Pacific on day 5 of the model run and all but gone as the Active Phase of the MJO starts building solidly in the West Pacific making some headway into the KWGA at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase holding stationary in the Indian Ocean/Maritime continent and barely making headway into the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models are somewhat in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/8) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the East Indian Ocean, and is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent at day 15 while loosing strength. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the Active Phase a little stronger over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/8) This model depicts a moderate and fading Inactive Phase over the Central/East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 6/15. A weak Active MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/23 pushing east while fading fast and barely limping over Central America at the end of the model run on 7/18. Another moderate Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/8 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/18. Of note: This model suggests the Inactive Phases are to be stronger than the Active Phases, hinting at a possibly developing La Nina.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/7) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and peaking with east anomalies in pockets over the West Pacific but with west anomalies also holding in the core of the KWGA. The forecast has this situation holding to 6/12 and then fading out with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA 6/13 through 6/24. After that west anomalies are to be weaker but holding solid through the end of the model run on 7/5 with no east anomalies to be found.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and forecast tracking east and filling the KWGA through 6/20 with very weak east anomalies in the far West KWGA but fading on 6/12, with west anomalies starting to build even though the Inactive MJO is still in control. A weak Active Phase is to develop 6/22 and slowly building holding in the KWGA through 8/6. Weak west anomalies are to be in the KWGA continuously during that timeframe with a stronger pulse 7/12-7/22. The Inactive Phase is to try and build weakly 8/12 through the end of the model run on 9/5 but with light east anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 7/3 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggest it fading on 7/28. Still a low pressure bias is to appear weakly in the Indian Ocean on 8/17 and holding there through the end of the model run. It looks like La Nina might try and develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/8) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 173W (previously 160E) while the 29 degs isotherm was steady at 156W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding some at 141W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador but not 30 meters down, but 25 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180- 110W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 150E at +1 degs reaching east to 105W with a core to nearly +3 degs at 170W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one modest area between 170E to 130W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/7) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming was pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and Mexico then west to 105W. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/6): A previous cooling trend was fading some today from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and in pockets out to 125W. Warming was limited to the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/4) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/8) Today's temps were steady and down alot from days previous at -0.314 down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/8) Today temps were steady today at +0.773 today. Temps have been generally rising the last week.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/8) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and were holding today. A very weak downward trend is indicated falling to +0.65 July 1 and holding there into early Nov, then fading to +0.55 in Dec holding into Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, holding into Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event previously in progress looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/8): The daily index was negative today at -11.04, negative the past 21 days. The 30 day average was rising slightly at -9.66 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling at -5.96, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table