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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Wednesday, June 5, 2019 4:35 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/3 thru Sun 6/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Central SPac Swell Fading In CA
A Gale Possible Under New Zealand

On Wednesday, June 5, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 12.5 secs from 168 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 6.5 secs from 45 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 15.1 secs from 202 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.8 secs from 187 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.2 secs from 194 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.6 secs from 215 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.8 secs from 193 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 8.5 ft @ 7.6 secs from 322 degrees and Central SPacific swell 2.6 ft @ 15.1 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 20-27 kts. Water temp 56.3 degs (042) and 50.5 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Wednesday (6/5) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at chest to head high and warbled and mushed. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and soft and mushy but mostly clean. At Santa Cruz Central South Pacific swell was producing set waves at waist to maybe chest high and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high or so on the sets and clean and lined up. In North Orange Co surf was chest to head high on the sets and really lined up and clean pushing from the south. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were also getting the same swell with waves head high to slightly overhead on the sets and lined up and clean. North San Diego had surf at waist to chest high and lined up and fairly clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting minimal leftover Central Pacific sideband swell with waves maybe waist high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and heavily textured from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (6/5) in California swell from the Central South Pacific was hitting and just past it's peak making rideable surf in many locations. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. This swell originated from a gale that developed in the Central South Pacific Sat-Mon (5/27) with seas 34-39 ft pushing northeast towards targets mainly east of Hawaii. For the immediate future no swell producing weather systems have occurred and support for gale development suppressed with the MJO turning Inactive. That said, the models are hinting at a gale forming under New Zealand tracking northeast Fri-Sat (6/8) with seas building to 40 ft possibly providing some swell radiating northeast.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Wednesday (6/5) the usual summer time pressure gradient was holding off North CA while falling south some with 20-25 kt north winds from South Cape Mendocino down to the Golden Gate producing modest north windswell but with 10 kt north winds over Central CA building to 15 kts later. No windswell expected for Hawaii. On Thursday (6/6) the gradient is to build in coverage with northwest winds expanding covering all of North and Central CA at 20 kts with a core to 25 kts from South Cape Mendocino to the Golden Gate and building through the day. Windswell building some in CA. Trades to be less than 15 kts approaching Hawaii producing no meaningful windswell. On Friday (6/7) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to build solidly along the North and Central CA coast with north winds 25 kts and with imbedded pockets to 30 kts mainly over North CA producing raw local windswell and poor conditions. East winds at 15 kts are to be extending west from California reaching to a point within 600 nmiles of Hawaii perhaps starting to produce windswell but not yet reaching the Islands. On Sat (6/8) the gradient is to lift north some with north winds 30 kts off of North CA while fading to 15 kts and holding nearshore for Central CA making for jumbled raw northwest windswell at exposed breaks. The 15 kt fetch previously targeting Hawaii is to dissipate. Perhaps some limited windswell from previous fetch to arrive along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Wednesday (6/5) north winds to hold at 20-25 kts for North CA down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts south of there into Central CA building to 15 kts later. Thurs (6/6) north winds to be 20-25 kts nearshore for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA nearshore early building to 20-25 kts later day. Fri (6/7) north winds to be 25 kts all day for North and Central CA building to 30 kts later in pockets mainly over North CA. Sat (6/8) north winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. Sunday (6/9) north winds are to be 25 kts only for Cape Mendocino and and eddy flow (south winds) to be in control south of there. Monday (6/10) light winds are forecast for the entirety of the California coast. Tues and Wed (6/12) a light flow (10 kts or less) is forecast for all nearshore waters of the CA coast.

No snow is forecast. Summer is here.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

On Wednesday (6/5) the jetstream was reasonably consolidated but only in the northern branch with the more influential southern branch all but gone. The northern and southern branches were pushing southeast over the Southeast Pacific fully suppressing support for gale development. But and bit of a trough was developing south of Tasmania with 120 kts winds tracking due north perhaps starting to set up a trough targeting the Tasman Sea. Over the next 72 hours a strong burst of wind energy is to be tracking east under New Zealand starting Thurs (6/6) to near 190 kts offering building support for gale development. Starting Fri (6/7) a strong trough is to start building under New Zealand pushing hard north up it's east coast with winds to 150 kts with it's apex up at 33S 170W and offering great support for gale development but then getting a bit pinched off while weakening fast later on Sat (6/8). At the same time a solid ridge is to be building over the Southeast Pacific suppressing support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (6/9) the New Zealand trough is to be steadily weakening while falling southeast with winds feeding to dropping from 110 kts and all but gone by Mon (6/10) with support for gale development steadily fading and then gone. Theoretically on Tues (6/11) a new pocket of wind energy is to start pushing northeast from well under New Zealand at 130-140 kts possibly setting up a small trough and support for gale development. But for the most part by later Tuesday the greater South Pacific is to be under influence of a ridge pushing south from 160W to a point under Chile offering no support for gale development and by later Wed (6/12) a secondary ridge is to start building south under New Zealand totally shutting down support for gale development across the width of the South Pacific.

Surface Analysis  
A gale developed in the Central South Pacific tracking east generating swell that is hitting California now (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast in the greater South Pacific.

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing south of Tasmania Wed AM (6/5) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 49.5S 152.5 E aimed northeast targeting Fiji well. Fetch is to continue tracking northeast into the Tasman Sea in the evening but fading to 35 kts from the south-southwest with seas 34 ft at 46S 160E aimed well at Fiji. On Thurs AM (6/6) the fetch is to be just west if not impacting New Zealand at 30-35 kts aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 29 ft at 42.5S 167W aimed like the wind. The gale and seas to fade from there. Possible swell to result for Fiji and the surrounding area.

Fiji: Rough data suggests swell arrival late evening on Sat (6/8) local time starting to peak just before sunrise Sun (6/9) with period 18 secs and peaking through mid-day at 10.3 ft @ 17 secs (17 ft Hawaiian). Residuals on Mon (6/10) fading from 7.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (10 ft Hawaiian). Swell Direction: 196-206 degs focused on 205-207 degs


Central South Pacific Gale
A new gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (5/25) with 40 kts southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast generating 29 seas at 50S 158.5W. In the evening fetch tracked northeast and fragmented some at 35-45 kts in pockets with 28 and 30 ft seas near 47S 145W aimed northeast. The gale faded Sun AM (5/26) with 35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 46.5S 137.5W aimed northeast while a new gale/fetch started building right behind the original one with 40-45 kt southwest winds building and seas to 28 ft at 51S 159.5W aimed northeast. In the evening only the new fetch remained producing 50 kt south winds pushing northeast over a tiny area with 39 ft seas over a tiny area at 51S 151W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/27) the gale tracked northeast while fading with 45 kt south winds and seas fading from 37 ft over a small area at 49S 143W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 40 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with 38 ft seas at 49S 135W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (5/28) from 35 kts and starting to fall southeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 48S 128W aimed east. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/6) from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/7) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-200 degrees

North CA: Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Thurs (6/6) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/7) fading from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/8) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 186-201 degrees focused on 192.0-197.8 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Sun (6/9) the gradient is to lift north with north fetch limited to North CA waters at 25 kts producing windswell radiating south into Central CA but with an eddy flow (south winds) from Bodega Bay southward making for improving conditions. No windswell producing fetch is to be targeting Hawaii. Monday (6/10) the gradient is to be lifting north with north winds 25 kts limited to North Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow south of there to Pt Conception. Minimal north windswell is to be produced. No change for Hawaii. On Monday (6/10) the gradient is to be limited to extreme South Oregon producing north winds at 25 kts offering limited north windswell only for North CA. A light flow if not eddy flow to be in control for most of North Ca and all of Central CA. No windswell production is forecast for Hawaii. By Tues (6/11) no windswell production is forecast for CA or HI. On Wed (6/12) no change is forecast for CA. East winds are to be building up to 300 nmiles east of Hawaii offering some potential for small short period east windswell.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (6/6) a gale is to be pushing east under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 38 ft at 59.5S 153.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (6/7) fetch is to start turning and lifting northeast at 40 kts from the southwest over a solid area producing 39 ft seas at 57S 163E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale is to be just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 41 ft at 54S 172E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale is to be tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 37 ft at 51S 179.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to ease east still producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing and seas 31 ft at 46S 173W. On Sun AM (6/9) the gale is to hold stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 31-34 ft over a small area at 41S 162W aimed northeast. The gale is to hold t in the evening producing a small area of 35-40 kt southwest winds aimed northeast with seas 33 ft at 38.5S 156.5W aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


Inactive MJO In Control - East Equatorial Pacific Remains Warm

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/4) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central Pacific and light east in the West Pacific. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/5) east anomalies were in control of the whole of the KWGA with no west anomalies to be found. The forecast is for east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/12. There is to be steadily decreasing support for storm development for the next week and likely beyond as these east anomalies take hold an suppress atmospheric momentum.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/4) An Inactive MJO pattern was filling the KWGA but weaker today than days past. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase steadily fading in the core of the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then all but gone at day 10 as the Active Phase of the MJO starts building solidly in the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to be in control of the KWGA/West Pacific solidly at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme with the Inactive Phase holding position while slowly fading and gone from the KWGA at day 10 but with the Active Phase holding stationary in the Indian Ocean/Maritime continent and barely making headway into the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models somewhat in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/5) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the East Indian Ocean, and is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent at day 15 while holding strength. The GEFS model suggests a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase nearly collapsing while tracking east and weak over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/5) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase over the Central/East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 6/15. A weak Active MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific 6/10 pushing east to Central America on 7/8. Another moderate Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/10 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/15. Of note: This model suggests the Inactive Phases are to be stronger than the Active Phases, hinting at a possibly developing La Nina.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/4) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and peaking with east anomalies in pockets over the West Pacific but with west anomalies also holding in the core of the KWGA. The forecast has this situation holding to 6/12 and then fading out with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA 6/13 through 6/23. But after that west anomalies are to hold solid through the end of the model run on 7/2 with no east anomalies to be found.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/5) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and forecast tracking east and filling the KWGA through 6/20 with very weak east anomalies in the far West KWGA but fading in 2-3 days, then turning neutral and then weakly westerly on 6/13 and beyond. A weak Active Phase is to develop 6/24 and slowly building holding in the KWGA through 8/6. Weak west anomalies are to be in the KWGA continuously during that timeframe. The Inactive Phase is to try and build weakly 8/16 through the end of the model run on 9/2. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/29 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggest it fading on 7/28. Still a low pressure bias is to build in the Indian Ocean on 8/10 and holding there through the end of the model run. It looks like La Nina is to try and develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/5) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 173W (previously 160E) while the 29 degs isotherm was steady at 155W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding some at 140W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador but not 30 meters down, but 25 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a +2 deg pocket at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) and perhaps another building in from the west reaching east to 170E today (possible start of Kevin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150E at +1 degs reaching east to 105W. There was no evidence a Kelvin Wave was yet developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26 on this model though a pocket of +2.5 deg anomalies was building at 170W. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one modest area between 165E to 145W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) . From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and maybe Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/4) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 15S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming that was very pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and up to Mexico west to 105W last week then faded some later last week was rebuilding today and solid. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/4): A previous cooling trend was holding today from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and in pockets out to 125W. Warming was limited to the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/4) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/5) Today's temps were steady and down alot from days previous at -0.520 down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/3) Today temps were steady today at +0.849 today. Temps have been generally rising the last week.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/5) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and held till June 1. After that a downward trend is indicated falling to +0.60 July 1 down to +0.50 in August and holding into early November, then fading to +0.35 in Dec holding into Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, then slowly fading through the later Fall into Winter of 2019/20 to neutral with no more Kelvin Waves forecast per this model. A multiyear warming event previously in progress looks likely to stall according to this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/3): The daily index was negative today at -8.08, negative the past 18 days. The 30 day average was falling at -9.94 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was steady at -5.87, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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