Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 16.0 secs from 207 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 9.7 secs from 266 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 182 degrees. Wind southeast 4-8 kts. Water temperature 64.2 degs, 58.1 (Harvest 071), 63.7 (Topanga 103), 61.7 (Long Beach 215), 65.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.7 (Del Mar 153), 66.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.8 ft @ 11.9 secs from 293 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 10.2 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs from 201 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 3.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 187 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.8 ft @ 13.7 secs from 200 degrees. Water temperature 66.9 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 11.6 secs from 320 degrees. Wind southeast 4-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), S 10-12 kts San Francisco (46026), S 12-15 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.7 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 57.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 56.7 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 57.9 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (6/4) in North and Central CA sets were chest high coming from the northwest and warbled and mushed and weakly lined up and chopped from south wind. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and lined up if not closed out but soft and fairly clean with south texture on it. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean. In Ventura County waves were waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and fairly clean with decent form. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and real lined up if not closed out coming from the south and slightly warbled from northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and real lined up with good form and clean but with a fair amount of warble or lump in the water. North San Diego had sets at head high and real lined up if not closed out and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high lined up with good form when the sets came but with a little north warble on it. The South Shore had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with decent form early. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (6/4) California was getting southern hemi swell originating from a small gale that developed southeast of New Zealand Sat--Mon (5/26) with 30-31 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking northeast across the entire South Pacific. Locally generated northwest windswell was in the mix too. Looking forward a gale developed south of the Tasman Sea Fri (5/30) with 29-30 ft sea aimed northeast then reorganized just east of New Zealand while pushing northeast Sat-Sun (6/1) with up to 34 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is radiating northeast towards HI and CA. A small gale is forecast developing Fri-Sat (6/7) while lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 37-40 ft with residual energy in the far Southeast Pacific into Mon (6/9) aimed northeast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (6/4) background swell was hitting the North Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. Otherwise no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Thurs AM (6/5) northwest winds hold at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and a weak eddy flow at 10 kts from the south for location south of there. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell holding. No precip forecast
Fri AM (6/6) the gradient finally starts fading with northwest winds 25-30 kts off North Cape Mendocino and the eddy flow from the south at 5-10 kts down to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 20-25 ks well off Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow in control south of there at 5-10 kts. Windswell fading.
Sat AM (6/7) northwest winds fade from 15-20 kts limited to a small area off North Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow (south winds) 5-10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. Northwest winds dissipate in the afternoon with a generalized northwest flow at 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading if not gone.
Sun (6/8) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Mon (6/9) northwest winds build at 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15+ kts for both North and Central CA. raw local windswell building.
Tues (6/10) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Limited short period windswell possible.
Wed (6/11) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to be building over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 25-30 kts there and 15-20 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Local windswell building.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps generally 45-55 degs into Sat (6/7) then building some at 55-60 degs Sun-Thurs (6/12) holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (6/4) a steep pinched trough was pushing up over the entire Tasman Sea then the jet was falling hard south east of New Zealand forming a ridge being fed by 150 kts winds offering nothing, then starting to lift gently northeast over the Southeast Pacific perhaps offering hope beyond. Over the next 72 hours winds to build to 190 kts in the ridge over the Central South Pacific into Fri (6/6) with a weak trough east of it pushing east of the California swell window and fading offering no support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (6/7) another ridge is to form south of New Zealand reaching south to 80S and sweeping hard east across the deep South Pacific actively hindering support for gale formation. But interestingly that ridge and the ridge over the Central South Pacific might combine to form a trough over the Southeast Pacific Sat-Sun (6/8) being fed by 210 kts winds offering good potential to support gale formation before pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Mon (6/9). After that then jet is to be pretty far south running generally east on the 60S latitude line offering nothing. Maybe a small trough to try and develop in that flow over the Central South Pacific on Wed (6/11). But that's a ways off. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (6/4) swell was hitting in California originating from a gale that developed while tracking northeast from New Zealand across the entire South Pacific (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours well is to be tracking northeast originating from a gale that developed south and southeast of New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
On Sat AM (5/24) a gale started to develop southeast of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 56S 171W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale tracked northeast with southwest winds building to 50 kts over a tiny area and 40+ kts over a broader area with seas 29 ft at 50.25S 155.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/26) south winds were 45+ kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 47S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was over the far Southeast Pacific with southwest winds 35-45 kts aimed well north with seas 30 ft at 48S 133W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/26) southwest winds were fading over the far Southeast Pacific at 35 kts and seas 29 ft at 48.5S 125.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was tracking east at 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 45S 118W moving east of the Southern CA swell window. Fetch and seas faded after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Wed AM (6/4) from 2.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (6/5) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/6) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Wed AM (6/4) from 2.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (6/5) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/6) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Thurs AM (5/29) a gale started developing south of Tasmania with 35-40 kt southwest winds lifting northeast with seas 29 ft at 57.5S 143.25E aimed northeast targeting the Tasman Sea. In the evening a broad fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds were approaching the southern tip of New Zealand with seas 26-27 ft at 51S 154.75E aimed northeast pushing up into the Southeast Tasman Sea. On Fri AM (5/30) 40-45 kt southwest fetch was impacting Southern New Zealand with 30 ft seas at 49S 162E poised to impact Southern New Zealand. In the evening fetch was reorganizing just south and southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35 kts over abroad area and up to 40-50 kts in pockets with seas 30 ft at 46.25S 176.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/31) fetch was south and east of New Zealand at 40-45 kts over a broad area aimed northeast with seas 32 ft down at 57.25S 167.75E on the 213 degree path to CA and 28-29 ft over a large area all the way up to 45S 175W aimed well northeast on the 214.7 degree path to CA. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 33 ft at 54.25S 176E aimed northeast and extending well northeast at 30 ft up to 44S 177W on the 212.7 degree path to CA. On Sun AM (6/1) southwest fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 51.5S 174W aimed northeast in the 210 degree path to CA. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft centered at 49S 168.5W aimed northeast. Residual seas were fading Mon AM (6/2) from 26 ft at 44.5S 160.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/6) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell to peak Sat (6/7) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft) building to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding on Sun (6/8) at 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell slowly fading on Mon (6/9) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/10) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/8) building to 0.9 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building through the day Mon (6/9) to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking Tues (6/10) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell steady Wed (6/11) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/12) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals holding on Fri (6/13) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/14) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 214-215 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/8) building to 0.9 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building through the day Mon (6/9) to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking Tues (6/10) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell steady Wed (6/11) at 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/12) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals holding on Fri (6/13) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/14) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-213 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours perhaps a small gale to develop Fri AM (6/7) tracking east- northeast over the Southeast Pacific with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 29 ft at 56.25S 151W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest winds3 to be 45 kts solid over the Southeast Pacific with seas 41 ft at 55.25S 141W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (6/7) southwest fetch to start lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 40 ft at 52S 133.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch to be fading from 35-40 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with 39 ft seas fading at 50.5S 123W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/8) south fetch is to be fading but gaining coverage at 35+ kts with seas 31 ft at 47S 120W aimed northeast. Fetch to linger into Mon AM (6/9) just west of 120W at 35-40 kts with seas 26-30 ft at 55S 120W in the NCal and SCal swell windows and targeting South America well. Something to monitor.

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/3) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate plus over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were very weak east over the far East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/4) Today modest west anomalies were pushing east to nearly the dateline with moderate east anomalies east of there. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to continue pushing east to 160W on 6/7 then retracting west back to the far West Pacific 6/12-6/15. West anomalies to again push east to the dateline and beyond 6/15 through the end of the model run on 6/20. The GFS has been consistently more conservative that all the other models.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/3) Currently a modest Active MJO (wet air) was filling the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase (wet air) holding on day 5, then collapsing to neutral on day 10 of the model run holding a neutral on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing but with the Active Phase trying to redevelop weakly on day 15 in the far West Equatorial Pacific.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/4) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over the East Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it moving to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak in strength. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase moving over the West Pacific building to modest status 10 days out then crashing hard 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/4) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was stationary between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA. The forecast has it filling the KWGA while tracking slowly east through 6/19. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 6/29 filling it through the last day of the model run on 7/14 while tracking east. Note - the Active MJO has been stuck and stationary over the entrance to the West Pacific for weeks now per this model.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/3) Today modest west anomalies were reaching east to 170E nearly filling the KWGA. No contours were indicated. West anomalies are to hold 6/10 then quickly retracting west to the far West Pacific 6/13-6/18, then west anomalies surge again making it to 150E and holding there through the end of the model run on 7/1. Weak east anomalies to be east of there.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral to weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA with weak Active MJO contours indicated. No real change is forecast through 6/8 but with Active MJO contours gone by 6/6. Full west anomalies are to develop on 6/9 filling the KWGA and holding moving forward. No meaningful MJO signal indicated until 7/10 when the Active Phase develops filling the KWGA and holding through nearly the end of the model run on 9/1 with west anomalies building to moderate status west of the dateline 7/1-8/20. The dividing line between east and west anomalies is to be 170E from early July onwards. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 6/28 and then moving more aggressively east 7/6 reaching 170E on 8/15 and holding there through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 2 contours. The second contour is already starting to fade and is to be gone on 6/10. The third is already starting to ease east and is forecast reaching the dateline 7/6 and easing east from there and east of the KWGA. This suggests La Nina is slowly fading in the atmosphere and is to be turning fully neutral by mid-June.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (6/4) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 178W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 155W. Warm water is on the move and creeping east. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and +2 deg in the East Pacific down 50m and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over the entire equatorial Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -1 degs were spread between 160W to 110W 150 meters down and losing energy. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates cool anomalies were just below neutral in pockets over the upper thermocline (50 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of that cool pool reaching east to 120W and solid to 145W. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were weakly positive in the east to 100W and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 165W and neutral in between from 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator starting at 5N and 5S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at 130W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/28) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building east on the equator across the Pacific reaching east to 135W with scattered pockets of warm anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/3) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the bulk of the Equatorial Pacific with aa few pockets of slightly cooling water near 120W. Temps appears to be warming over the entire Equatorial Pacific. Warming anomalies were south of the equator and neutral anomalies north of there. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/3): Temps continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific but with clear signs of warming developing over the entire Equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/4) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at +0.401 having been up to +0.426 degs (5/29) and had been rising slightly since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/4) Today's temps continued up at -0.173 and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at -0.1 on 5/28. Previously temps were -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (6/4) - Temps to rise to +0.2 degs July holding through Sept, falling to neutral (0.0 degs) Oct and Nov then rising to 0.15 degs in Jan and Feb. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to down to -0.027 (+0.59 last month). Temps to slowly fall to -0.280 in in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.294 OND then rising some to +0.004 at the end of the model run on JFM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.282 NDJ rising to -0.155 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/3) the Daily Index was positive at +4.57 and was solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days), mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising at +3.88 and has been generally rising the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +4.96 and in ENSO neutral territory too.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.