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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, May 29, 2022 2:19 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.1 - California & 4.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 5/30 thru Sun 6/5

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell #1 Fading in HI
Stronger New Zealand Swell Right Behind

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, May 29, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 4.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 15.0 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 196 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 63.7 degs, 62.2 (Topanga 103), 60.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 65.5 (Del Mar 153), 63.5 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.8 ft @ 5.9 secs from 318 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 207 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 63.1 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.7 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 8.2 ft @ 7.4 secs from 319 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.6 ft @ 14.6 secs from 202 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 21-27 kts. Water temp 48.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 47.5 (Pt Reyes 46013), 50.2 (46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), and 50.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (5/29) North and Central CA had set waves at chest to head high and blown out with whitecaps from northwest wind. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and pretty warbled but not chopped but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the peaks and clean with good form but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and somewhat lined up with clean surface conditions but with intermixed warble though wind was calm. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and and weakly lined up with decent form but textured if not warbled from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high or so and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled from southerly wind and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up but broken up by south warble. Hawaii's North Shore had some waist to near chest high waves at top spots and clean early. The South Shore had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form and pretty consistent. The East Shore was near flat to thigh high and textured from light east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (5/29) Hawaii was just past the peak of swell from the first of 2 gales that formed under New Zealand moving northeast just off the coast Fri-Sun (5/22) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed well north. This swell is bound for California. And California was getting the fading remnants of swell from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (5/18) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Another gale followed developing southeast of New Zealand Mon-Tues (5/24) producing up to 29 ft seas aimed well northeast. And a third developed in the same location Tues-Fri (5/27) with up to 37 ft seas aimed well northeast. And a small system was developing over the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/30) with up to 30 ft seas aimed well northeast. Then things settle down for a while. So we are at the beginning of a week long run or more of swell.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (5/29) no swell producing weather systems have occurred with no swell in the water or forecast immediately.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (5/30) northwest winds are forecast at 25+ kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
  • Tues (5/31) northwest winds are forecast fading from 25 kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino later and 15+ kts south of there to Pt Conception.
  • Wed (6/1) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early and holding in the afternoon.
  • Thus (6/2) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early fading to 10-15 kts for North CA in the afternoon down to Monterey Bay and 20 kts from Big Sur Southward.
  • Fri (6/3) light winds are forecast early for all of North CA down to Big Sur and 15 kts from the northwest south of there. In the afternoon light variable winds are forecast for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA but up to 15 kts for Pt Conception.
  • Sat (6/4) low pressure is to be just off North CA with south winds forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest winds 10 kts for Central CA as the front impacts Cape Mendocino. Rain for all of North CA early building into Central CA in the evening. All this is highly unlikely.
  • Sun (6/5) west to northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tahoe area 8,000 ft today building to 12,000 on 6/1 holding till 6/4 then falling to 10,500 ft and holding beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (5/29) the influential southern branch of the jet was weakly lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific with winds weak at 100 kts forming a poorly organized trough not really offering and decent support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to rebuild with winds building to 110 kts on Mon (5/30) digging the trough a little deeper over the Southeast Pacific then pushing 120 later in the day starting to again offer limited support for gale development through Tues (5/31). But a solid a ridge is to start building under New Zealand late on Sun (5/29) pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf with winds 140 kts while sweeping east undercutting the trough later Tues (5/31) starting to actively suppress support for gale development and taking over the entirety of the South Pacific by Thurs (6/2). Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to continue with the jet running flat west to east down at 70S into Sat 96/4) with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. By Sun (6/5) the jet is to start lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 100-110 kts winds perhaps starting to support gale formation there.


Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific is fading in California (see Another Central South Pacific Gale below). And a gale developed under New Zealand lifted northeast with swell from it still solidly hitting Hawaii and moving towards CA (see 1st New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale formed under New Zealand behind the first producing some swell but likely masked by yet another stronger gale that formed right behind it under New Zealand. Swell from that gale is radiating northeast towards HI and the US West Coast (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sat PM (5/28) a gale started building well southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kts south winds over a small area with seas building from 23 ft at 56S 174W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/29) fetch is to build to 45 kts from the south over a small area aimed well north with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 53.75S 163.75W. In the evening 35 kt south winds are to be pushing well north with seas 27 ft over a small area at 48.25S 158.5W aimed north. The gale is to collapse Mon AM (5/30) with 35 kts south winds fading and seas 23 ft at 45S 154W aimed north. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

 

Another Central South Pacific Gale
A gale formed in the South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/16) producing a modest sized area of 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 59.5S 159.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/17) southwest winds were growing in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a moderate area at 55S 152W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds rebuilt to 40-45 kts solid moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas 32 ft at 55.75S 148W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/18) fetch pushed east at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 30 ft at 53S 135.25W aimed northeast. Fetch pushed northeast in the evening while fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest and seas fading from 28 ft at at 51.75S 126W. The gale was east of the Southeast CA swell window after that. No swell is to result for Hawaii with all energy focused on the US West Coast and more so for Central America.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (5/29) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Sun (5/29) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

 

1st New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Fri AM (5/20) with 40-45 kts south winds and seas building. In the evening south to southwest winds were still 40-45 kts over a solid area just south-southeast of New Zealand with 32 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/21) southwest winds were 40-45 kts just southeast of New Zealand producing 35 ft at 49.25S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was pushing east at 40+ kts over a solid area with seas 33 ft at 45.25S 176.75W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/22) winds faded from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 46.25S 167W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was dissipating with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 45.5S 160W aimed east. Swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Swell continues on Sun (5/29) 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (5/30) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/30) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/31) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/1) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/2) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-217 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/30) building to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/31) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/1) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/2) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees

 

Secondary New Zealand Gale
A fetch of southwest winds developed Sun PM (5/22) south of New Zealand at 35-40 kts getting traction and generating seas of 26 ft at 57.5S 168E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM 35-40 kt west-southwest winds were over a broad area aimed east-northeast under and southeast of New Zealand with seas to 29 ft at 57.75S 179.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts over a tiny area southeast of New Zealand with seas 26 ft at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast. This is mainly just a preparatory gale for the next system developing behind (see above).

No clearly identifiable swell to result.

 

3rd New Zealand Gale
One more fetch of southwest winds developed Mon PM (5/23) south of New Zealand at 40-45 kts getting traction and generating seas of 29 ft at 59.5S 157E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM 30-35 kt south-southwest winds were over a broad area aimed northeast under and southeast of New Zealand with seas 33 ft at 55S 165.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts over a solid area area just southeast of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 51.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/25) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 35 ft at 47.5S 174.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 30 ft at 46.5S 171.25W aimed northeast. Residual fetch was fading on Thurs AM (5/26) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 164W aimed northeast. The gale faded out from there. More solid swell is forecast for Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast given this storms good northward track and penetration well into the upper reaches of the South Pacific.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/31) building to 3.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell solid on Wed (6/1) holding at 2.9 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell slowly dropping on Thurs (6/2) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell dropping on Fri (6/3) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/4) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (6/2) building to 1.6 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/3) to 2.7 ft @ 17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (6/4) at 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/5) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/6) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-217 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (6/2) building to 1.4 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/3) to 3.0 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (6/4) at 3.1 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/5) from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/6) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211-215 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's low odds of a gale forming the far Southeast Pacific on Sun (6/5) producing 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 32 ft at 58S 130.5W mid-day. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

CFS Model Upgrades Again
La Nina to fade by mid-June - SOI Peaked Late April
- New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. La Nina conditions are projected ending by the CFS in June but persisting per the IRI models until Nov. West anomalies are forecast filling half or more of the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic with ENSO neutral trying to set up.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/28) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/29) a mix of weak east and west anomalies were over the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for no change through the end of the model run on 6/5 or if anything west anomalies building some to modest strength over the dateline starting 6/1 and holding.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (5/28) A modest Active MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the weak Active pattern is to be weakening on day 5 of the model run and gone on day 10 with a Inactive signal developing on day 10 of the model run building on day 15 to near strong status. The dynamic model projects the same thing but but with the Inactive Phase far weaker and barely in the KWGA on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(5/29) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the West Pacific and is to push east moving to the East Atlantic and quite weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase racing east fast over the West Indian Ocean at weak strength 15 days out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/28) A modest Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The forecast depicts the Active Phase (wet air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 6/17 while a modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA on 6/12 moving east to Central America on 7/2. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east into the KWGA at the end of the model run on 7/7.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/28) A neutral MJO Phase was depicted over the KWGA today with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control. A weak band of west anomalies are to traverse the KWGA starting today through 6/6 suggestive of the Active Phase tracking east. After that a weak wind anomaly patter is forecast with if anything just weak east anomalies over the KWGA easing east to the dateline 6/7 through the end of the model run on 6/25.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(5/29 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a very weak Inactive MJO signal was fading over over the KWGA with a mix of weak east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the weak Inactive signal fading over the KWGA on 6/2 with east anomalies dissipating about 5/31 and weak west anomalies developing and holding for the foreseeable future. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to follow 6/8-7/9 but with west anomalies holding to the dateline. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop on 7/2 pushing through the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/26. West anomalies are to prevail over the KWGA to the dateline but perhaps backtracking to 165E starting 7/17 and holding there. The core of east anomalies are to move from the dateline to 150W on 6/14 and holding there beyond. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast holding for the foreseeable future. The second contour is to fade on 6/12. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast holding more or less steady for the foreseeable future. A second contour line is to appear on 8/2 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but appears to have stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to hold there. In effect no real change is forecast. The demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias and or the arrival of west anomalies deep into the KWGA. That said, a slow decay of the east anomaly pattern over the KWGA and its movement to the East Pacific could possibly prepare the Pacific for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E which it is forecast to be late in June.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/29) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present at 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 179E (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 138W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 135W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A previous pool of -1C cool anomalies below the warm pool at 100W are gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/23 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 130W-80W with the core at 95W at -3 degs C and is shifting east and weakening (discharging to the surface). A new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific, stalled about late April, but now is moving east to 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/23) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A nearly contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 3N latitude line and building some with pockets at +5 cms with one to +10 cms. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 135W with -10 cms over the Galapagos. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from 165W and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 110W and shrinking. And a new Kelvin Wave was now moving east at 149W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while trying to push east, but weak and possibly stalled.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/28) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador to 130W perhaps building some. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/28): No clear trend of warming nor cooling was indicated over the equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (5/28) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/29) Today's temps were fading at -1.785 after rising to -1.506 (5/21) and that after temps hovering at -2.057 peaking on 4/23 and have been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(5/29) Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.780 and where -0.749 on 5/24. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (5/29) - T
emps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.350degs in July falling to -0.50 into Nov, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Nov and up to +0.1 degs in Feb. This is yet another slight upgrade. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in June and to -0.20 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.45 degs Sept-Nov, then rising to -0.05 degs in Feb. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (5/29) the daily index was positive at +27.82 degs with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling some at +17.82 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.65 today but not quite at it's peak on +16.72 (5/26), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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