Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 6.4 secs from 161 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 77 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 9.0 secs from 84 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 16.6 secs from 229 degrees. Wind northwest 8-10 kts. Water temperature 63.5 degs, 54.3 (Harvest 071), 63.7 (Topanga 103), 62.1 (Long Beach 215), 63.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.6 (Del Mar 153), 63.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.9 ft @ 8.1 secs from 311 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.7 ft @ 7.9 secs from 279 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.9 secs from 197 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.6 ft @ 16.3 secs from 184 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.6 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 16.1 secs from 191 degrees. Water temperature 62.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 11.0 secs from 312 degrees. Wind northwest 18-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and east at 2-4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 54.0 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.6 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 56.1 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (5/17) in North and Central CA sets were waist high or so coming from the north and mushed and weak and chopped with whitecaps and northwest wind in effect. Protected breaks were thigh to rarely waist high and reasonably lined up though uneven and mushed and pretty tattered from northwest wind early. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to waist high on the rare sets and weak and short and mushed with northwest winds outside the kelp early. In Ventura County waves were flat to knee high and weak and mushed and short and textured early. Central Orange County had sets to head high and lined up if not closed out but pretty warbled from moderate south wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to head high and lined up with decent form but mushed and warbled from south wind. North San Diego had sets at waist high or so and lined up but mushed and textured early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at maybe waist high and lined up with marginal form but fairly clean early. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped from brisk east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (5/17) California was starting tog et some background southern hemi swell mainly at the south end of the state. Hawaii was getting nothing. Things are to be quiet other than locally generated northwest windswell until sideband swell arrives from a small gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (5/16) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east. And another was right behind developing over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (5/17) with 31 ft seas aimed northeast. So there is some minimal hope. But after that nothing is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (5/17) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The North Pacific is asleep for the Summer.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (5/18) a full Springtime gradient is to be in effect with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. Local windswell building. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (5/19) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade some at 15-20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (5/20) the gradient regenerates with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA centered at Bodega Bay and 20 kts for Central CA with the worst of it from Monterey Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. Windswell redeveloping. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (5/21) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts nearshore for Central CA and 20 kts off the coast. In the afternoon perhaps low pressure is to be falling south off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 20+ kts for North CA and 20 kts from Pt Reyes southward to Monterey Bay and 15 kts south of there. Windswell fading some.
Thurs AM (5/22) low pressure is to dissipate well off Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 20 kts for most of North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA. Windswell fading.
Fri AM (5/23) more low pressure is to be off Oregon with high pressure nosing into California with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves onshore over Oregon with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception. Minimal northwest windswell building.
Sat Am (5/24) high pressure holds with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and up to 25 kts for Pt Conception. Windswell holding.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0.5 inches.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000 ft briefly early 5/17, then building to 10,500 ft on 5/19 rising to 12,00 ft 5/20 and holding beyond if not building higher some.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (5/17) the jetstream was ridging south over the West and Central South Pacific offering no support for gale formation but then lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific forming a trough there being fed by 120-130 kts winds offering support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and be east of the Southern CA swell window on Sun (5/18) offering nothing but still supporting gale formation relative to Chile and Peru. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (5/20) the jet is to be falling south under New Zealand forming another ridge actively hindering support for gale formation with that ridge pushing east across the south Central Pacific on Thurs (5/22) and then builds while pushing southeast into Antarctica over the Southeast Pacific on Fri (5/23) offering nothing. But on Sat (5/24) a new ridge is to be building under New Zealand with 150 kts winds but lifting northeast on it's leading edge over the Central South Pacific forming a trough perhaps offering some support for gale formation. At least there's that to hope for.

Surface Analysis
On Sat (5/17) background swell was hitting California from unknown source (see QuikCASTs for details).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be radiating northeast from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below)

Also on Fri AM (5/16) another gale was developing southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 58S 171W aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east-northeast over the Central South Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 54S 160W aimed northeast. the issue was the fetch was tracking east-northeast too fast. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch was tracking northeast with winds 40 kts over a decent area aimed northeast with seas 329-30 ft at 47.5S 145W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast while fading from 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 44S 133W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (5/15) a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a small area trying to get traction on the oceans surface. In the afternoon southwest winds built to 45-55 kts getting some traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 31 ft at 47.75S 131.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (5/16) southwest winds were 50-55 kts tracking east with seas 40 ft at 47.75S 128W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch was fading while falling southeast at 40 kts with seas 36 ft at 51.5S 120.75W aimed east and southeast while moving out of the Southern CA swell window. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch and seas were fading while falling southeast. No more potential for swell production was occurring.

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (5/23) building to 2.0 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat AM (5/24) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/25) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (5/23) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking Sat AM (5/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/25) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (5/23) a small gale is forecast developing in the far Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 42.5S 133W aimed east-northeast. fetch is to be fading Sat AM (5/24) from the southwest at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 44.5S 128.5W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas to fade after that. Something to monitor.

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate plus east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the far East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/17) Today modest west anomalies were filling a small portion of the West KWGA and moderate east anomalies were filling the majority of the KWGA with the dividing line at 140E. The forecast indicates the same pattern holding until 5/28 then east anomalies retract to the dateline and west anomalies build east filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 6/2. La Nina is not giving up for the next 10 days.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/16) Currently a neutral MJO (neither wet nor dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding through day 5 of the model run with a weak Active (wet air) pattern setting up over the KWGA on day 10 and holding on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing but with the Active Pattern (wet air) stronger on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/17) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it moving to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and exceedingly weak. The dynamic model has it holding position over the Maritime Continent but building from very weak to just weak status 15 days from now.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/17) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was stationary between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA. The forecast has it filling the KWGA while tracking slowly east through 6/1. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 6/11 filling it through the last day of the model run on 6/26 while tracking east. But note - the Active MJO has been stuck and stationary over the entrance to the West Pacific for weeks now per this model. Suspect this model is not functioning correctly.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/16) Today modest west anomalies were filling the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies over the East KWGA with the dividing line 140E. No change is forecast through 6/1 with a weak Inactive Phase is to develop over the dateline 5/22-6/2. After that starting 6/2 east anomalies are to collapse and west anomalies are to surge eastward filling the KWGA 6/5 through the end of the model run on 6/13.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were filling the West KWGA and East anomalies from 140E and points east of there with an Inactive contour over the West KWGA. No real change is forecast through 5/31 but with the Inactive Contour fading on 5/22. Effectively a weak MJO pattern is indicated. On 6/1 east anomalies are to collapse with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA and holding moving forward with no meaningful MJO signal indicated until 6/22 when the Active Phase develops filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/14 with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline 7/2 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 6/19 and then moving more aggressively east from 140E reaching 165E and holding through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 2 contours. The second contour is to fade on 6/3. The third is to ease east to 170E on 7/2 and easing east from there. This suggests La Nina is slowly fading in the atmosphere and is to be turning fully neutral in early June.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E. This is a major milestone.
Today (5/17) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 178E. The 28 deg isotherm line was now solid at 163W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and +2 deg in the East Pacific down 50m and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over the entire equatorial Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -1 degs were spread between 160W to 110W 150 meters down and losing energy. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/13 indicates cool anomalies were fading fast and just below neutral in pockets over the upper thermocline (50 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of the cool pool. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific west of the dateline and building east to 120W driven by the aforementioned Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific above neutral in the east to 110W and in the west reaching east to 165W and neutral in between from 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator starting at 5N and 5S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at 130W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/13) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building east on the equator across the Pacific reaching east to 134W. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/16) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the Equatorial Pacific with previous cool pockets resurging slightly. Warming anomalies were south of the equator and neutral anomalies north of there. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/16): Temps were neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +0.150 degs and have been rising slightly since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/17) Today's temps are falling at -0.243 and have been falling slightly since 5/8 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at +0.1 degs well of 5/7. Previously temps were -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (5/17) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in May then to +0.15 degs in June, falling to neutral (0.0 degs) Aug and holding there into Dec and Jan before rising some. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/16) the Daily Index was positive at +6.38 and has been positive the last 2 days, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was falling rising at -2.86 and has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was rising at +3.30 and in ENSO neutral territory too.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.