Tuesday, May 17, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 2.4 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 17.7 secs from 165 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 1.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 8.4 secs from 67 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 262 degrees. Wind southwest at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 60.6 degs, 60.1 (Topanga 103), 59.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.4 (Del Mar 153), 59.7 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.7 ft @ 8.0 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.6 ft @ 7.4 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 17.1 secs from 182 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.2 ft @ 8.5 secs from 279 degrees. Water temp 62.4 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 10.5 ft @ 8.3 secs from 319 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 50.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.9 (46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), and NA (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (5/17) North and Central CA had set waves at chest to shoulder high and soft and warbled with modest northwest wind on it early. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and reasonably lined up but a bit closed out from tide and relatively clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high on the sets and clean and weakly lined up and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and weak and soft and mushed with warbled intermixed and light but building northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set to maybe head high on the peak and soft and fairly clean but with a fair amount of intermixed warble and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets to chest high and lined up but soft with intermixed warble. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up but soft and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and fairly clean with light southeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (5/17) California was getting typical summertime northwest windswell at exposed breaks with some bare minimal southern hemi swell occasionally poking through at south facing break. Hawaii was getting limited southern hemi swell.
Looking forward the focus is the South Pacific. A gale formed Sun-Mon (5/9) in the Southeast Pacific producing 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. That swell is hitting California now. And another formed in the Central South Pacific on Tues (5/10) with 37 ft seas aimed well northeast then pushed east through Thurs (5/12) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east to northeast. That swell is starting to show in Hawaii and should be arriving in California later today. Beyond a gale is forming over the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (5/18) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another to form under New Zealand moving northeast just off the coast Fri-Sun (5/22) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed well north. And maybe another to follow in the same area Mon-Tues (5/24) producing 35 ft seas aimed well northeast. So an improving pattern is forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
No meaningful jetstream activity is forecast. The focus is now the Southern Hemisphere.
On Tuesday (5/17) a low pressure system just east of the dateline was producing windswell aimed well at Hawaii (see Dateline Low Pressure System below). .
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Dateline Low Pressure System
A small low pressure system developed just east of the dateline falling southeast Mon-Tues (5/17) producing 20-25 kts northwest winds and seas up to 14 ft at 32N 175.5W aimed well at Hawaii. Maybe some minimal windswell to result later in the workweek for exposed northwest facing shores.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/19) building to 2.4 ft @ 10 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (5/20) from 2.2 ft @ 9-10 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (5/18) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for both North and Central CA early and holding for the afternoon.
- Thurs (5/19) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts early for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA building to 30-35 kts for North CA in the afternoon and 25-30 kts for Central CA.
- Fri (5/20) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for North CA early and 30 kts for Central CA fading to 30-35 kts for North CA in the afternoon and 10-15 kts for Central CA.
- Sat (5/21) northwest winds to finally start fading with northwest winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts down to Pt Reyes and northwest 10 kts south of there.
- Sun (5/22) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 10 kts from just south of Pt Arena south of there holding in the afternoon.
- Mon (5/23) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. More of the same is forecast in the afternoon.
- Tues (5/24) the wind machine starts up again in the morning with northwest winds 30 kts for all of North CA early and 20+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level 10,500 ft today building to 12,500 ft on 5/18 fading to 11,000 ft on 5/20 holding before building to 14,000 ft on 5/26.
Water Assessment: It's assumed no more precipitation will fall this rain season. A total of 86 inches of snow fell at Olympic Valley between 4/11 and 4/22 with 17 inches more May 9-11. Impressive. Effectively all of California's frozen precip has fallen between 3 events - on Oct 18-26 (42 inches), Dec 9-Jan 5 (215 inches), and then the April Event (86 inches). Total accumulation is 411 inches at 8,000 ft. Normal total seasonal accumulation is 400 inches (Olympic Valley). Rainfall is at about 87% in that same corridor (San Francisco-Sacramento and Tahoe). But north and south of there it's in about the 70% range (total season accumulation). All this speaks to the power of the jetstream moving onshore and it's laser like focus on the SF-SAC-Tahoe area. Without those 3 events, California would be in very deep trouble. That said, the amount of water contained in that frozen precipitation is low, typical of La Nina years.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Tuesday (5/17) the influential southern branch of the jet was lifting northeast from under New Zealand with winds only 100 kts forming a trough over the South Central Pacific offering some limited support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to slowly track east while holding together reaching the East Pacific on Thurs (5/19) and weaker perhaps offering some limited more support for gale development. But a ridge is to be building over the Southwest Pacific on Wed (5/18) suppressing support for gale development and pushing east. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (5/20) a new trough is to start building under New Zealand on Fri (5/20) being fed by 110 kts winds offering some support for gale development and being reinforced on Sun (5/22) with winds to 140 kts offering better support for gale development. And yet more wind energy is to be building lifting north under new Zealand on Tues (5/24) at 140 kts really carving the trough out well offering good support for gale development. Certainly an improving pattern is suggested.
Swell from a weak gale that developed previously over the Southeast Pacific is fading in California (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from a second gale that developed over the Central South Pacific is to start hitting Hawaii today (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale formed in the South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/16) producing a modest sized area of 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 59.5S 159.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/17) southwest winds were growing in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a moderate area at 55S 152W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to build to 40-45 kts solid moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas 31 ft at 58.75S 148.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/18) fetch is to push east at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 54S 134.75W aimed northeast. Fetch is to push northeast in the evening while fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest and seas fading from 28 ft at at 50.5S 126.75W. The gale is to be east of the Southeast CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.
Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (5/7) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a broad area and seas 25 ft building at 59S 152W. In the evening southwest winds were building to 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 55.75S 138.75W aimed east-northeast. Mon AM (5/10) southwest winds were 35-45 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 55.5S 122W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 57S 121W aimed northeast and on the edge of the SCal swell window. This system faded and was east of the CA swell window beyond.
Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
North CA: Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Central South Pacific Gale
Mon PM (5/9) a small storm developed southeast of New Zealand with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 61S 170W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/10) the gale had 45+ kt southwest winds lifting northeast with seas 37 ft at 55.75S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was pushing northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 53.5S 152.75W aimed northeast. The gale pushed east Wed AM (5/11) over the Southeast Pacific with 45 kt west-southwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 55S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was pushing east at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 129.25W aimed east and on the east edge of the SCal swell window. Secondary fetch was pushing over the same area on Thurs AM (5/12) from the west at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 49.75S 137.5W aimed east. In the evening 40 kts west winds were pushing to the edge of the SCal swell window with seas 31 ft at 49.25S 126.25W aimed east. This system was east of the SCal swell window beyond.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (5/18) to 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Secondary energy building in too at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0 ft). On Thurs (5/19) swells at 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) and 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). On Fri (5/20) swell steady at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/21) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). A final pulse to be fading on Sun (5/22) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (5/23) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) later. Swell building some on Wed (5/18) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs (5/19) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Fri (5/20) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues Fri (5/21) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/22) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/23) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-195 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell building some on Wed (5/18) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs (5/19) at 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (5/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues Fri (5/21) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/22) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/23) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 184-194 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours perhaps a new gale is to form south of New Zealand on Fri PM (5/20) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/21) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts just southeast of New Zealand producing 31 ft at 48.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to start pushing east at 40+ kts over a solid area with seas 30 ft at 43.5S 172.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/22) winds to turn more easterly at 40 kts with seas 36 ft at 48.75S 168.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the east with seas 31 ft at 47.5S 160W aimed east. Something to monitor.
A new fetch of southwest winds at 45 kts is to develop south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (5/23) getting traction and generating seas of 32 ft at 53.5S 164E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/24) south winds to be 45-50 kts over a solid area with seas 34 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast well. Certainly a very interesting situation to result.
CFS Model Upgrades
Weak La Nina through Fall then Fading - SOI Peaked Late April - New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. But the SOI is peaking just now, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But La Nina conditions are projected by the CFS model until Nov, then fading, suggesting an uncertain future. West anomalies are forecast filling half the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems like ENSO neutral is trying to set up.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/16) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific fading to modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/17) a mix of weak east and west anomalies were in patches over the KWGA, The 7 day forecast calls for weak east anomalies building over the KWGA to strong status on 5/22 and holding through the end of the model run on 5/24.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/16) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase is to push east on day 5 of the model run and fading fast, turning neutral on day 10 continuing on day 15 with no sign of the Inactive or Active Phase of the MJO indicated. The dynamic model projects the Active Phase gone on day 5 with a weak Inactive Phase trying to develop but not making it, gone on day 10 with a weak Active Phase trying to develop over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (5/17) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Pacific and is to push fast east moving to Africa and weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase racing east fast back to the West Pacific at very weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/25) This model has not updated. A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 4/30 while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to follow over the KWGA on 4/30 moving east to Central America on 5/15. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east from 5/15-5/30 with a very weak pattern beyond through 6/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/16) The Inactive MJO Phase was depicted developing over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies building over the West KWGA at moderate strength with weak west anomalies over the dateline. The Inactive MJO is to push east through 5/27 with east anomalies at moderate strength tracking east fast through the KWGA through 5/27 too. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop over the far West KWGA on 5/24 along with building west anomalies tracking east through the KWGA through then to the end of the model run on 6/13. A very steady Active/Inactive Phase pattern is to set up.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/17 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a very weak Inactive MJO signal was holding over the KWGA with weak east anomalies focused over the Central KWGA. The forecast depicts the weak Inactive signal holding through 6/7 (previously 5/19) over the KWGA with east anomalies slowly dissipating while tracking east on 5/28. West anomalies are to develop in the KWGA starting 5/30. The Active Phase of the MJO is to push east 6/1 through 6/20 with weak to modest west anomalies taking over the entirety of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to push east 6/15-7/15 but with weak west anomalies holding. The Active Phase is to follow 7/7 through the end of the model run on 8/14 with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA to nearly to the dateline. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast holding for the foreseeable future. The second contour is to fade on 6/15. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast holding more or less steady for the foreseeable future if not easing slightly east. A second contour line is to appear on 8/5 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but appears to have stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to hold there. In effect no real change is forecast. All this suggest the continuation of La Nina. This model has been constantly slipping later the velocity of the arrival of the low pressure bias deeper into the KWGA and the subsequent arrival of westerly anomalies over the KWGA. The demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was present at 161E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 26 degree isotherm backtracked from 120W to 135W to 141W on 5/3 and is easing east now back to 135W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 137W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A previous pool of -1C cool anomalies below the warm pool at 100W are now gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/13 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 120W-80W at -3 degs C and appears to be now be shifting east and weakening. A new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific, stalled about late April, but now is moving east to 138W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/13) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 5N latitude line and holding with pockets at +5 cms with one to +10 cms. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 135W with -10 cms between 85W-105W. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from the dateline and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 117W and shrinking. And a new Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 152W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while pushing east, but weak and possibly stalled.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/16) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Ecuador to the dateline extending well south of the equator. Only a few lingering pockets of warm water remained on the equator from Ecuador to 130W. A pocket of stronger cold water was along the coast of Peru reaching to the Galapagos on the equator indicative of strong upwelling there, but losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/16): A thing string of cooling waters were from the Galapagos to 105W. Warming was building from Ecuador to 85W.
Hi-res Overview: (5/16) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/17) Today's temps were rising at -1.727 previously down to -2.057 on 4/23 and had been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/17) Today's temps were steady ay -0.929 and have been there since 5/2 and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (5/17) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.45 degs in July falling to -0.90 into Nov, then rising to the La Nina threshold in Jan at -0.5 degrees and then -0.25 degs in Feb. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.35 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.70 degs in Nov, then rising to -0.50 degs in Jan and to -0.25 degs in Feb. This is starting to come in line with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.705 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.601 degs in May (previously -0.315 degrees last month), then rising to -0.449 in July (previously -0.287 degs) and hovering there through November then rising to -0.351 degs (previously 0.0 degs) after that. This model now suggest a continuation of weak La Nina conditions through the Fall.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (5/17) the daily index was positive at +24.45 degs today and up to +40.77 on 5/10 previously peaking at +31.44 on 4/27, +31.80 on 4/6, +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was falling some to 19.99 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +15.51 today the highest in a year. It previously peaked on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23/21 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table