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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, May 14, 2022 1:47 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 5/16 thru Sun 5/22

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 SPac Swells Pushing North
Stronger Gale Forecast for Central South Pacific

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, May 14, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.1 ft @ 6.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 144 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.5 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 8.0 secs from 65 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 8.1 secs from 251 degrees. Wind east at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 60.1 degs, 58.5 (Topanga 103), 59.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.7 (Del Mar 153), 58.8 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.0 ft @ 8.5 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 6.4 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 6.6 secs from 278 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 6.8 secs from 281 degrees. Water temp 63.5 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 6.0 secs from 309 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 50.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.9 (46026), 53.6 (SF Bar 142), and NA (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (5/14) North and Central CA had set waves at thigh to waist high and soft and clean and fogged in. Protected breaks had a few thigh high sets and mushed with clean conditions and no visibility. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weak and soft and mushed and clean. Central Orange County had sets at knee to thigh high and clean and soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set to maybe thigh high and soft and clean. North San Diego had sets to thigh high and soft with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to thigh high and clean with sideshore lump intermixed. The South Shore was thigh high and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (5/14) California was getting bare minimal locally generated northwest windswell at exposed breaks. Hawaii was getting only locally generated east windswell.

Looking forward the focus is the South Pacific. A gale formed Sun-Mon (5/9) in the Southeast Pacific producing 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. And another formed in the Central South Pacific on Tues (5/10) with 37 ft seas aimed well northeast then pushed east through Thurs (5/12) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east to northeast. So two small swells are pushing northeast with the first of the two focused on California but the second providing potential for both Hawaii and California. Beyond a gale is forecast for the Central South Pacific on Tues-Wed (5/18) producing 36 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another to form under New Zealand on Sat (5/21) producing up to 30 ft seas aimed well north. So there is some hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
No meaningful jetstream activity is forecast. The focus is now the Southern Hemisphere.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (5/14) minimal swell from a low pressure system previously over the dateline swell was fading in Hawaii (see Dateline Low Pressure below).

Over the next 72 hours another small low pressure system is to develop over the dateline falling southeast Mon-Tues (5/17) producing seas up to 15 ft at 33.5N 174W aimed well at Hawaii. Maybe some minimal windswell to result later in the workweek for exposed northwest facing shores.

 

Dateline Low Pressure System
A weak gale developed over the dateline on Sat PM (5/7) producing 25 kt north winds and seas trying to develop. On Sun AM (5/8) no change occurred. In the evening the gale started developing with 30 kt north winds with seas building to 15 ft at 45N 173W aimed southwest and not at Hawaii. On Mon AM (5/9) north winds were 30 kts over the dateline aimed south with seas 18 ft at 45N 178W aimed south. In the evening fetch fell south with 30 kt northwest winds aimed well at Hawaii with 16 ft seas at 39N 1178E. The low and associated fetch faded Tues AM (5/10) no longer generating seas of interest.

Hawaii: Dribbles fading Sat (5/14) from 1.5 ft @ 9 secs (1.0 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun (5/15) northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Bodega Bay early and northwest 15-20 ks for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
  • Mon (5/16) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA strongest south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for all of North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA.
  • Tues (5/17) the wind machine fires up again with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Wed (5/18) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for both North and Central CA early and holding for the afternoon.
  • Thurs (5/19) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts early for North and Central CA building to 30-35 kts for North and Central CA in the afternoon.
  • Fri (5/20) northwest winds to be 30+ kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 20-25 kts in the afternoon.
  • Sat (5/21) northwest winds to finally start fading with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts from Pt Arena southward to the Golden Gate and 10-15 kts south of there. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level 12,000 ft today holding through 5/18 then falling down to 4,000 ft on late on 5/19 but quickly rebounding to 8,000 ft the next day and holding through 5/21 then slowly building to 12,000 ft on 5/23.

Water Assessment: It's assumed no more precipitation will fall this rain season. A total of 86 inches of snow fell at Olympic Valley between 4/11 and 4/22 with 17 inches more May 9-11. Impressive. Effectively all of California's frozen precip has fallen between 3 events - on Oct 18-26 (42 inches), Dec 9-Jan 5 (215 inches), and then the April Event (86 inches). Total accumulation is 411 inches at 8,000 ft. Normal total seasonal accumulation is 400 inches (Olympic Valley). Rainfall is at about 87% in that same corridor (San Francisco-Sacramento and Tahoe). But north and south of there it's in about the 70% range (total season accumulation). All this speaks to the power of the jetstream moving onshore and it's laser like focus on the SF-SAC-Tahoe area. Without those 3 events, California would be in very deep trouble. That said, the amount of water contained in that frozen precipitation is low, typical of La Nina years.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (5/14) the influential southern branch of the jet was lifting solidly northeast under new Zealand with winds 110 kts forming a trough and offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to slowly track east while holding together reaching the East Pacific on Tues (5/17) but weaker perhaps offering some more support for gale development. But a ridge is to be over the Southwest Pacific suppressing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is to try and build under New Zealand on Thurs (5/19) but weak, then being reinforced with 120 kts winds on Fri (5/20) and holding into Sat (5/21) offering decent support for gale development.


Surface Analysis
Swell from a weak gale that developed previously over the Southeast Pacific is propagating northeast (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from a second gale then developed over the Central South Pacific and is radiating northeast as well (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to form in the South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/16) producing a modest sized area of 45 kt south winds with seas building from 28 ft at 57S 158.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/17) southwest winds are to be growing in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft over a moderate area at 55S 150W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to rebuild at 40-45 kts solid moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas 35 ft at 58.75S 143W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/18) fetch is to be building at 45 kts from the south with seas 36 ft at 53S 135.25W aimed northeast. Fetch is to push northeast in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 50.75S 123.75W. The gale is to be east of the Southeast CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.

 

Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (5/7) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a broad area and seas 25 ft building at 59S 152W. In the evening southwest winds were building to 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 55.75S 138.75W aimed east-northeast. Mon AM (5/10) southwest winds were 35-45 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 55.5S 122W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 57S 121W aimed northeast and on the edge of the SCal swell window. This system faded and was east of the CA swell window beyond.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/15) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (5/16) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/15) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (5/16) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

Central South Pacific Gale
Mon PM (5/9) a small storm developed southeast of New Zealand with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 61S 170W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/10) the gale had 45+ kt southwest winds lifting northeast with seas 37 ft at 55.75S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was pushing northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 53.5S 152.75W aimed northeast. The gale pushed east Wed AM (5/11) over the Southeast Pacific with 45 kt west-southwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 55S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was pushing east at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 129.25W aimed east and on the east edge of the SCal swell window. Secondary fetch was pushing over the same area on Thurs AM (5/12) from the west at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 49.75S 137.5W aimed east. In the evening 40 kts west winds were pushing to the edge of the SCal swell window with seas 31 ft at 49.25S 126.25W aimed east. This system was east of the SCal swell window beyond.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (5/18) to 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Secondary energy building in too at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0 ft). On Thurs (5/19) swells at 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) and 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). On Fri (5/20) swell steady at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/21) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). A final pulse to be fading on Sun (5/22) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (5/23) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) later. Swell building some on Wed (5/18) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs (5/19) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Fri (5/20) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues Fri (5/21) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/22) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/23) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/17) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell building some on Wed (5/18) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs (5/19) at 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (5/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues Fri (5/21) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (5/22) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/23) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 184-194 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours perhaps a new gale is to form south of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 52S 178W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

CFS Model Upgrades
Weak La Nina through Fall then Fading - SOI Peaked Late April
- New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. But the SOI is peaking just now, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But La Nina conditions are projected by the CFS model until Nov, then fading, suggesting an uncertain future. West anomalies are forecast filling half the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems like ENSO neutral is trying to set up.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/14) east anomalies were weak over the KWGA, The 7 day forecast calls for very weak east anomalies holding over most of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/21.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (5/14) A building Active MJO signal was indicated today filling the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase is to push east on day 5 of the model run then fading on day 10 with a strong Inactive Phase building from the Maritime Continent into the KWGA with the Inactive Phase taking over the KWGA at day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the Active Phase weak on day 5 and gone on day 10 with a neutral pattern taking over and dead neutral on day 15. The two models are way out of sync 10 days out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(5/14) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the far West Pacific and is to push fast east moving to Africa and weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase racing east to the Central Indian Ocean at very weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/25) This model has not updated. A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 4/30 while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to follow over the KWGA on 4/30 moving east to Central America on 5/15. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east from 5/15-5/30 with a very weak pattern beyond through 6/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/13) The Inactive MJO Phase was depicted developing over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies building over the KWGA at moderate strength. The Inactive MJO is to push east through 5/27 with east anomalies moderate tracking east fast through the KWGA through 5/27 too. Now the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop over the far West KWGA on 5/24 along with building west anomalies tracking east through the KWGA through then end of the model run on 6/10. A very steady Active/Inactive Phase pattern is to set up.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(5/12 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a very weak Inactive MJO signal was holding over the KWGA with weak east anomalies focused mainly on the dateline. The forecast depicts the weak Inactive signal holding through 5/30 (previously 5/19) with east anomalies slowly dissipating while tracking east on on 5/27. After that The Active Phase of the MJO is to push east 5/28 through 6/13 with weak to modest west anomalies taking over the entirety of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to push east 6/7-7/7 but with weak west anomalies holding. The Active Phase is to follow 7/5 through the end of the model run on 8/11 with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA to nearly to the dateline. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast holding for the foreseeable future. The second contour is to fade on 6/15. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 110E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast holding steady for the foreseeable future if not easing slightly east. A second contour line is to appear on 8/2 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but appears to have stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to hold there. In effect no real change is forecast. All this suggest the continuation of La Nina. This model has been constantly slipping later the velocity of the arrival of the low pressure bias deeper into the KWGA and the subsequent arrival of westerly anomalies over the KWGA. So it is not to be believed. And the demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was present at 161E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 174E. The 26 degree isotherm backtracked from 120W to 135W to 141W on 5/3 and is easing east now back to 135W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 137W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A previous pool of -1C cool anomalies below the warm pool at 100W are now gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/8 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 138W-80W at -3 degs C and appears to be now be shifting east and weakening. A new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific, stalled about late April, but now is moving east to 138W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/8) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 5N latitude line and holding with pockets at +5 cms with one to +10 cms. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 135W with -10 cms between 85W-110W. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from the dateline and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 130W. And a new Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 152W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while pushing east, but weak and possibly stalled.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/13) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Ecuador to the dateline extending well south of the equator. Only a few lingering pockets of warm water remained on the equator from Ecuador to 130W. A broad pocket of strong cold water was along the coast of Peru reaching to the Galapagos on the equator indicative of strong upwelling there, but losing density compared to days past. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/13): A neutral trend was on the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (5/13) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/14) Today's temps were steady at -2.029 previously down to -2.057 on 4/23 and had been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(5/14) Today's temps were steady ay -0.985 and have been there since 5/2 and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading steadily after that.
Forecast (5/14) - T
emps are to fall to -1.1 degs in May and then are to steadily rise to about -0.55 degs in July falling to -0.95 into Nov, then rising to the La Nina threshold in Dec at -0.5 degrees in Jan and then -0.25 degs in Feb. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.45 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.75 degs in Nov, then rising to -0.25 degs in Feb. This is starting to come in line with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.705 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.601 degs in May (previously -0.315 degrees last month), then rising to -0.449 in July (previously -0.287 degs) and hovering there through November then rising to -0.351 degs (previously 0.0 degs) after that. This model now suggest a continuation of weak La Nina conditions through the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (5/14) the daily index was positive at +19.25 degs today and up to +40.77 on 5/10 previously peaking at +31.44 on 4/27, +31.80 on 4/6, +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was falling some to 20.22 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +14.64 today the highest in a year. It previously peaked on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23/21 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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