Tuesday, April 26, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.2 secs from 164 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 11.4 secs from 340 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 15.3 secs from 306 degrees. Wind north at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs, 59.4 (Topanga 103), 56.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.4 (Del Mar 153), 58.1 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 302 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.8 secs from 229 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 16.3 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 239 degrees. Water temp 63.0 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 298 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 18-23 kts. Water temp 50.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.0 (46026), 51.8 (SF Bar 142), and 54.7 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (4/26) North and Central CA had set waves at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up but pretty trashed from northwest wind with whitecaps in effect. Protected breaks were head high or so and mushed and chopped and not really rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or maybe a foot more on the sets and lined up and glassy and peeling when it came. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and lined up and with decent form and with light local wind but there was a defined warble in the water kinda mushing it out. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with good form but modest south winds were putting some lump in the mix. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few sets at head high or maybe 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up with good form and looking pretty good. North San Diego had some sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and clean with decent form and no warble. Hawaii's North Shore had some sets still at head high on the peak and lined up with decent form and no wind early. The South Shore had some sets at chest to near head high and lined up and fairly clean but with some small east texture intermixed. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (4/26) California was getting a mix of south swells and northerly swell with the south swells from a gale that formed in the Southeast Pacific Sat-Sun (4/17) lifting gently east-northeast producing up to 38 ft seas and another that developed just east of New Zealand on Sat-Sun (4/17) with 29-30 ft seas aimed well northeast before fading on Tues (4/19) well north in the Central South Pacific. And the northerly swell was from a gale that developed off Kamchatka on Thurs (4/21) with 33 ft seas tracking east but fading quickly. Beyond another small gale tracked across the Central South Pacific Tues-Thurs (4/21) lifting well northeast with seas to 29 ft. Swell arrival later in the week focused on the Mainland. And another gale was developing under New Zealand on Mon (4/25) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast and tracking across the South Pacific through the work week.
Up north a gale is forecast pushing off Kamchatka on Thurs (4/28) with 29 ft seas but quickly fading with secondary energy developing on the dateline Sun (5/1) pushing east with seas rebuilding to 34 ft then fading in the Gulf on Mon (5/2) with seas fading from 26 ft. So a mix of both north and south swells to continue for a little bit longer.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (4/26) the jet was fairly consolidated running off the Kuril Islands forming a trough just west of the dateline being fed by only 120 kt winds offering limited support fro gale development then ridging into the Bering Sea over the dateline before falling southeast over the Gulf of Alaska and very weak offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to build being fed by 170 kt winds on Wed (4/27) pushing over the dateline before fading in the Gulf on Thursday with support for gale development fading then. By Fri (4/29) the jet is to remain consolidated with 160 kt winds pushing east from the Kuril Islands to the Western Gulf perhaps offering some more hope. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to hold together remarkably well with 150-160 kts winds over it's width from Japan to Vancouver Island with a broad trough starting to develop in the Gulf on Tues (5/3) offering some support for gale development. Perhaps Winter is not quite over yet.
On Tuesday (4/26) swell from a gale that developed over the far Northwestern Gulf was fading in CA (see Northwest Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off the extreme North Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (4/28) with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 49N 156E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be 35-40 kts over a small area aimed east just clear of the Kuril Islands with seas 29 ft at 48.25N 162E aimed east. Fetch fading from 30 kts on Fri AM (4/29) with seas fading from 25 ft at 46.5N 168E aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there with its remnants pushing east towards the Gulf beyond with secondary fetch right behind (see Longtern Forecast below). Something to monitor.
Northwest Gulf Gale
Another gale developed over the North Dateline region on Wed PM (4/20) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a small area with seas building from 25 ft at 46.75N 173.25E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (4/21) northwest winds were 45 kts solid with seas 34 ft at 46.75N 177W aimed east. In the evening the gale was in the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kts west winds and seas 32 ft at 46.25N 167.25W aimed east. On Fri AM (4/22) the gale was fading with 35 kt west winds in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 27 ft at 46.25N 162.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening with 30 kts west winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 46.5N 157.5W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there.
North CA: Swell fading on Tues (4/26) from 5.1 ft @ 13 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/27) fading while being overrun by local windswell. Swell Direction: 298 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (4/27) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 20+ kts in the afternoon. No precip is forecast for the week.
- Thurs (4/28) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early and holding in the afternoon.
- Fri (4/29) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North CA and 20-2 5kts for Central CA and holding in the afternoon.
- Sat (4/30) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA though 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA.
- Sun (5/1) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
- Mon (5/2) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early holding for North CA in the afternoon and fading to 20 kts for Central CA.
- Tues (5/3) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA fading for North CA to 15 kts in the afternoon and 10 kts for Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Water Assessment: It's assumed no more precipitation will fall this rain season. A total of 86 inches of snow has fallen at Olympic Valley between 4/11 and 4/22. Impressive. Effectively all of California's frozen precip has fallen between 3 events - on Oct 18-26 (42 inches), Dec 9-Jan 5 (215 inches), and then this April Event (86 inches). Total accumulation is 394 inches at 8,000 ft. Normal total seasonal accumulation is 400 inches (Olympic Valley). Rainfall is at about 87% in that same corridor (San Francisco-Sacramento and Tahoe). But north and south of there it's in about the 70% range (total season accumulation). All this speaks to the power of the jetstream moving onshore and it's laser like focus on the SF-SAC-Tahoe area. Without those 3 events, California would be in very deep trouble.
Freezing level about 9,000 ft on Sun (4/24) generally holding there before building to 10.500 ft on 4/29 and then 12,000 ft on 5/1.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Swell from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific was fading in California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another swell from a gale that pushed north from New Zealand was behind that (see New Zealand Gale Aimed Well North below). And a small gale in the Southeast Pacific has produced small swell radiating north towards CA (see Small Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a reasonably solid and broad storm started building under New Zealand on Sun PM (4/24) with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 29 ft at 53.75S 166E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/25) 40-45 kt southwest winds were tracking east with 32 ft seas at 55.25S 170E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to redevelop a bit further south with a solid fetch of 45 kts southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 52S 175.75W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/26) a solid fetch of south winds were blowing at 50-55 kts with seas 37 ft at 58.25S 173.5W aimed north and northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 38 ft at 54.75S 168.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM fetch is to be fading from 35+ kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 51S 161.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
On Wed AM (4/27) secondary fetch is to develop just southwest of the main fetch at 45-50 kts aimed northeast with seas building from 27 ft at 62.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening 45-50 kt southwest winds are to be lifting northeast with seas 36 ft over a small area at 59S 178.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (4/28) fetch is to be 40+ kts over a broad area aimed northeast over the Central South Pacific with seas 33 ft at 54.25S 165.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts aimed northeast over a broad area with seas fading from 32 ft at 53.25S 155.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/29) from 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 29 ft at 50S 151W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there.
Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (4/15) a gale started building over the deep Central South Pacific with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 59.25S 141.75W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (4/16) southwest winds were 45-50 kts in the Southeast Pacific with 35 ft seas at 57S 132.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the southwest and aimed more northeasterly than before with seas 36 ft at 54.75S 124.25W aimed northeast. After that fetch moved northeast and east of even the Southern CA swell window.
Southern CA: Tues (4/26) swell to be fading from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 195 degrees
North CA: Tues (4/26) swell to be fading from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 195 degrees
New Zealand Gale Aimed Well North
On Sat AM (4/16) a gale started developing southeast of New Zealand with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 53S 180W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt south winds were pushing northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 172W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/17) south winds were 40 kts aimed well north over a decent sized area with seas 29 ft at 48N 164W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt south winds were lifting northeast with seas 30 ft at 45S 160W aimed north and northeast. On Mon AM (4/18) 40-45 kt south winds were continuing to lift north with seas 31 ft at 50.25S 153.25W aimed north. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 35 kt south winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 43S 152W aimed north. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Residuals on Tues (4/26) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-189 degrees
Southern CA: Swell building on Tues (4/26) to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (4/27) to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading on Thurs (4/28) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202-211 degrees
North CA: Swell building on Tues (4/26) to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell building on Wed (4/27) to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading on Thurs (4/28) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201-210 degrees
Small Southeast Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (4/19) a tiny gale started developing over the deep Central South Pacific with 40 kt south winds lifting northeast with seas 24 ft at 55S 164W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 45-50 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 52.25S 150.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (4/20) south winds were 40-45 kts from the south over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 51S 141.7W aimed north. In the evening the gale was over the Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt south winds and 29 ft seas at 49.5S 136W aimed northeast. The gale was fading on Thurs AM (4/21) with 35 kt south winds over a tiny area and seas 27 ft at 49S 131.25W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: This system was east of the Hawaiian swell window.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (4/28) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft) late. Swell building on Fri (4/29) to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (4/30) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (5/1) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (4/28) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft) late. Swell building on Fri (4/29) to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (4/30) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (5/1) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a small gael is forecast pushing off Japan and racing northeast approaching the dateline on Sat PM (4/30) with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft over a small area at 44.5N 172.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (5/1) the gael is to be east of the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 46.25N 178.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35-40 kt west winds over a decent sized area in the Western Gulf with seas 30 ft at 46.5N 167.75W aimed east. On Mon AM (5/2) the gael is to be fading in the Central Gulf with 35+ kt west winds over a decent sized area and seas 27 ft at 47.5N 157.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading in the Central Gulf with 30-35 kts west winds and seas fading from 26 ft at 48.5N 149.25W aimed east. On Tues AM (5/3) the gale is to be fading with 30 kt west winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 49N 141.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours another broad gael is forecast developing in the deep Central South Pacific Sun PM (5/1) with 40 kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas 25 ft at 63S 169.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/2) south winds to be 35 kts over a broad area with seas 28 ft at 63S 159.5W aimed northeast. The gael is to be fading in the evening with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 62S 150W. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
La Nina Weakening But Not Out - Another Kelvin Wave Developing
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that erupted over the Galapagos in March, but still solidly in La Nina territory over the Central Pacific. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in another weak Kelvin Wave pushing east. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a 3rd year of La Nina is projected by the CFS model, suggesting an uncertain future. West anomalies are forecast filling half the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems like ENSO neutral is trying to set up.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/25) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/26) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status 4/27-4/29 then collapsing to neutral and holding there through the end of the model run on 5/3 with west anomalies building in the West KWGA at the same time to near strong status. the model run on 4/30 with weak west anomalies pushing east to 150E.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/25) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model projects the same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/26) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Indian Ocean and is forecast to track east and over the Maritime Continent and very weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/25) A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 4/30 while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to follow over the KWGA on 4/30 moving east to Central America on 5/15. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east from 5/15-5/30 with a very weak pattern beyond through 6/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/25) A neutral MJO Phase was depicted over the KWGA today with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to fade on 4/29 with weak west anomalies moving over the KWGA 4/30-5/6. No MJO signal is forecast beyond but east anomalies are to rebuild filling the KWGA modestly 5/8 through the end of the model run on 5/23. But west anomalies are to be steadily pushing into the West KWGA starting 5/12 reaching halfway through at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/26 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive MJO signal was trying to build over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts a weak Inactive signal holding but with west anomalies developing and filling the entirety of the KWGA starting 4/29 and holding beyond. The weak Inactive MJO signal is to ease east through 6/21 and the out of the KWGA at that time. Beyond a weak Active MJO signal is forecast starting 6/21 holding through the end of the model run on 7/24 with west anomalies continuing in control of the KWGA but fading west to about 165E filling 70% of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast unchanged in strength and position. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 110E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast moving slowly but steadily east from now on reaching 160E at the end of the model run on 7/24. A second contour line is to appear at 120E on 6/29. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, but finally started moving east on 3/25 and is still doing that today, but incredibly slowly. Something to monitor. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July 2021 is done. East anomalies are to recenter themselves at 135W starting 5/4 and holding for the foreseeable future. All this suggest the demise of La Nina proper if this occurs as forecast. but lingering effects will continue over the US West Coast into at least Fall. The model had been constantly slipping later the velocity of the arrival of the low pressure bias deeper into the KWGA. So the future remains uncertain but cautiously optimistic. The full demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/26) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was present at 162E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3-4 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 145W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific all but gone there. A shrinking area of -1C cool anomalies were in between the two centered at 115W and fading fast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/18 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 150W-80W at -3 degs C and appears to be now be shifting east and weakening while the remnants of the Kelvin Wave in the east area all but gone. And a new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific from 155W to 148W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/18) Sea heights were rising some over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 5N latitude line and stronger than days previous. And a broad area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 150W with a previously imbedded pocket at -15 cms now gone. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from the dateline and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the previous Kelvin Wave was gone but with a pocket of cool anomalies fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 144W. And a new Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 156W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while pushing east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/25) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west to the dateline extending well south of the equator with pockets of warm water on the equator from Ecuador to 135W. A broad pocket of strong cold water was along the coast of Peru reaching to the Galapagos on the equator indicative of strong upwelling there. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/25): A weak area of cold water was centered over the Galapagos and fading fast. Warming was developing on the equator along and off Ecuador to 90W.
Hi-res Overview: (4/25) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in play over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/26) Today's temps were steady at -2.057 and have there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/26) Today's temps were steady at -0.882 after rising to -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading some after that.
Forecast (4/26) - Temps are to continue falling to -1.35 degs in early May and then slowly rising to about -1.00 degs in July more or less holding there into Nov, then rising more directly beyond. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.50 degs in May then rising to about -0.75 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.95 degs in Nov, then rising beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.705 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.601 degs in May (previously -0.315 degrees last month), then rising to -0.449 in July (previously -0.287 degs) and hovering there through November then rising to -0.351 degs (previously 0.0 degs) after that. This model now suggest a continuation of weak La Nina conditions through the Fall.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (4/26) the daily index was positive at +27.11 after peaking at +31.80 on 4/6, +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +17.79 and the highest in a year beating the last high of +13.46 on 3/27, after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +13.42 today beating the previous peak of +9.36 on 3/22 and +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23/21 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table