Saturday, April 15, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.9 secs from 241 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 76.3 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Seas were 6.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 75.4 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 12.2 secs from 190 degrees. Wind northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 57.4 degs, 57.9 (Topanga 103), 57.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 58.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.8 (Del Mar 153), 57.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 8.5 secs from 300 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.0 secs from 262 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 12.7 secs from 195 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.5 secs from 189 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 9.4 secs from 264 degrees. Water temperature was 57.9 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 8.3 secs from 311 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-14 kts (46026). Water temp 48.2 (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.4 (San Francisco 46026), 50.4 (SF Bar 142), 52.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (4/15) North and Central CA had sets at thigh to rarely waist high and lined up but warbled and soft with onshore northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh high and soft and warbled and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high and soft and weak but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean but weak. Central Orange County had sets at waist o maybe chest high and somewhat lined up and real clean but soft and mushed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist to rarely chest high on the peak and somewhat lined up but heavily textured from northwesterly wind. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up but soft and mushed with fairly clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some swell with waves to head high on the peak and somewhat lined up with reasonable form and fairly clean with some sideshore warble running through it. The South Shore was waist high and somewhat lined up and real clean with decent form. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from moderate northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (4/15) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii was getting some background minimal northwest swell mixed with trade wind generated easterly windswell. A broad low pressure system was developing tracking southeast through the Gulf of Alaska Fri-Tues (4/18) producing 18-22 ft seas aimed at the US West Coast. Maybe some swell to result. Otherwise nothing else other than windswell is forecast for the North Pacific. A gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/19) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed northeast. Maybe there's some hope.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (4/15) the jetstream was splitting just off Japan with the northern branch pushing northeast over the Kuril Islands and then across the Aleutians starting to fall southeast over the East Aleutians with winds 140 kts falling into a developing trough there offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours starting Sun (3/16) a secondary trough is forecast developing over the dateline but real pinched and not likely to support even low pressure development though managing to hold together into late Mon (4/17). Meanwhile the Gulf trough is to continue slowly easing east being fueled by 150 kts winds offering more support for gale development with it's leading edge impacting the Pacific Northwest later Sunday and continuing to support gale formation into Wed (4/19) over the Northeastern Gulf. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to become fully consolidated on Fri (4/21) pushing off Japan with 160 kts winds falling into a trough just east of the dateline being fueled by 120 kts winds offering limited support for gale development before falling apart off the Oregon coast. That trough is to ease east while getting steeper and pinched on Sat (4/22) north of Hawaii offering only limited support for gale development then.
On Saturday (4/14) no swell production was occurring other than locally generated windswell hitting California and Hawaii.
Over the next 72 hours a gale is to be tracking through the Gulf (see Gulf Gale below).
Low pressure started developing in the Central Gulf on Fri AM (4/14) starting to produce northwest winds at 20-30 kts trying to get traction. In the evening northwest winds continued growing in coverage at 25-30 kts with seas building to 16 ft at 48N 143W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (4/15) the low pressure systems was building with northwest winds 25-30 kts and seas building to 15 ft at 48N 153W aimed southeast. In the evening 25-30 kt northwest west winds are to be streaming off the Aleutians generating 19 ft seas at 54N 145.75W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (4/16) real northwest fetch is to develop at 35 kts with seas 19 ft at 49.75N 153.25W aimed southeast. In the afternoon northwest winds to hold at 30-35 kts with seas 21 ft at 46.75N 146W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (4/17) northwest winds to hold at 30-35 kts off Oregon with seas 23 ft over a small area at 45N 135.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to fade from 25 kts with seas 20 ft at 44N 128,75W almost hitting Oregon aimed southeast. On Tues AM (4/18) fetch is to be fading out. Something to monitor.
North CA: Maybe some swell to arriving starting later Sun (4/16) building to 3.0 ft @ 13 secs (4.0 ft). More is expected on Mon (4/17) with swell 4.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0 ft). Maybe some more on Tues (4/18) building to 6.0 ft @ 12-13 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (4/19) from 5.0 ft @ 12 secs (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300-305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun AM (4/16) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA from Monterey Bay southward. Maybe some rain for Cape Mendocino late afternoon.
- Mon AM (4/17) a weak front is to be just off the North Coast with west winds 5 ks for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10-15 kts for the remainder of North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure is to be poised just off Oregon with west winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. The front is to blow through in the early evening. Rain for Cape Mendocino in the late afternoon building south to the Golden Gate overnight.
- Tues AM (4/18) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Big Sur. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts over the SF Bay area and northwest 20 kts from Big Sur southward to Pt Conception. Rain for North CA down to Pidgeon Point right before sunrise then fading to the north through the day. Light snow for Tahoe starting early and holding through the day.
- Wed AM (4/19) things to be settling down with west winds 5-10 kts for North CA early and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino during the day.
- Thurs AM (4/20) Another small low is to be spinning up off the Pacific Northwest with northwest wind 5 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 20 kts for Monterey Bay southward. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino through the day and evening.
- Fri AM (4/21) high pressure is to be building in with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Sat AM (4/22) northwest winds to be 20-25 kt for North and Central CA early.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 7, 10, 2, and 0 inches with all accumulation on 4/18.
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 8,500 ft today (4/15) building to 10,000 ft late then starting to fall and below 6,000 ft late on 4/17 reaching down to 3,000 ft on the evening on 4/18 before rising again on 4/20 reaching above 6,000 ft and up to 10,5000 ft on 4/21 pushing to 12,000 ft on 4/24.
- - -
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours the models keep teasing concerning some sort of a gale developing in the Southwest Pacific on Tues AM (4/18) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening southwest winds to be 45-50 kts over the Central South Pacific with 31 ft seas at 59S 166W aimed east-northeast. ON Wed AM (4/19) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 57S 154.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the south with seas 33 ft at 54S 146.5W aimed northeast. Fetch gone Thurs AM (4/20) with seas from previous fetch fading from 28 ft at 50S 140W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/14) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/15) West anomalies were filling the KWGA and moderate to strong west of the dateline. The 7 day forecast has west anomalies holding over the KWGA and strong through 4/21 and moderate through the end of the model run on 4/22 just west of the dateline. No east anomalies are forecast. Quite a change has taken hold.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/14) A moderate Active MJO was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a modest Active MJO holding stationary over the KWGA on day 5 fading on day 10 then gone on day 15 with a neutral MJO pattern in control then. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive phase trying to build on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/15) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific and is to move to the Central Indian Ocean 2 weeks from now and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase was over the West Pacific and is to move east to the West Maritime Continent and very weak on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/15) A modest Active (wet air) pattern was over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active signal (wet air) moving steadily east from the KWGA and centered over the East Pacific on 5/5 then slowly easing into Ecuador 5/15. A modest Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 5/5 easing east and over the Central and East Pacific through the end of the model run on 5/25. Another Active Phase (wet air) is to start developing over the far West Pacific on 5/15 continuing through the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/14) West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are filling the KWGA today. The forecast has west anomalies and the Active Phase building and hitting strong status while peaking 4/15-4/22, then fading while moving east over the dateline and into the East Pacific into 4/30. After that neutral MJO pattern is forecast through the end of the model run but with weak east anomalies on the dateline 4/26 through the end of the model run on 5/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/15) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA with west anomalies moderate to the dateline. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies are to continue building over the KWGA filling it through 4/25 with moderate west anomalies in control. Actual data suggests a weak Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) might be developing. After that a weak Inactive Phase is forecast 4/23-5/17 but with modest west anomalies holding and filling the KWGA. A period of neutral MJO signal is forecast but with west anomalies holding until the next Active Phase of the MJO is to follow starting 6/1 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA at strong status through the end of the model run on 7/13. A solid El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 125W with its western perimeter at 170W today and just about east of the KWGA moving east fast and forecast east of the KWGA by 4/21. A broad low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 120E with it's leading edge steadily pushing east at 175E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring with it's leading edge on the dateline 4/28 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific with it's leading edge at 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east at 173E (previously 170E). The 28 deg isotherm line was pushing hard east from 174W to 155W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2-3 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/8 indicates a huge very warm ball of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 107W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards across and into the East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies there. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West PAcific at 125E at +5 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms over the entirety of it's width reaching east to Ecuador and building to +5-10 cms there. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 110W at +1.75 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 98W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/14) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos then fading while continuing west along the equator reaching to 125W (results of Kelvin Wave #1) and building in intensity. Warm temps continue west on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. But, remnants of La Nina are evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and an upwelling pattern in control.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/14): A neutral pattern was along the coasts of Peru and Chile and along the equator there. But a solid stream of warming temps were from 140 west to 155E. No cooling waters were indicated. So the pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has restarted. A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (4/14) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is redeveloping on the equator west to 125W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/15) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are fading some toady at +2.770 and previously increasing to +2.891 (4/13) after previously peaking 4/6 at +2.302 degrees. Temps rose to +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/15) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were rising at +0.088 degs (the third day above 0.0 in years) and have been more or less steady the past 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (4/15) - Temps are just above neutral (0.1 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.45 degs in July and +2.35 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.20 degs in July and +1.80 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Mar 20, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.038 degs today and finally above the La nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.493 degs in May rising to +0.779 in July and holding there beyond. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/15) the Daily Index was negative at -9.74 and has been near neutral to negative the past 5 days, positive the 6 days prior after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -0.19 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +5.01 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.
- - -
NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table