Tuesday, April 12, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.7 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 14.9 secs from 159 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 11.3 secs from 50 degrees. Water temp 77.5 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 6.5 secs from 270 degrees. Wind north at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 61.2 degs, 55.0 (Topanga 103), 61.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 11.8 ft @ 10.3 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 291 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 5.5 ft @ 9.0 secs from 274 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 6.8 ft @ 9.8 secs from 280 degrees. Water temp 61.9 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 8.7 ft @ 10.5 secs from 312 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 49.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 48.1 (46026), 48.2 (SF Bar 142), and 51.4 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (4/12) North and Central CA had set waves at 1-2 ft overhead and broken up and warbled and uneven with steady northwest onshore wind and small whitecaps on top. Protected breaks were head high and burgered out with intermixed warble and a bit closed out but reasonably clean given the wind. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form but very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up but soft and mushed and nearly chopped from northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and reasonably lined up with decent form but pretty warbled and soft from fairly strong northwest wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high and somewhat lined up but formless and warbled from northwest wind. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up but pretty closed out and warbled but not as bad as up north. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up with decent form but soft and inconsistent and fairly clean conditions. The South Shore was still getting some southern hemi swell with waves chest high and lined up with decent form but with some windswell lump intermixed. The East Shore was shoulder high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (4/12) California was getting locally generated north windswell and perhaps the leading edge of some New Zealand swell. Hawaii was getting nothing from the north and maybe some stray leftovers coming from New Zealand. Up north a tropical system is forecast recurving northeast and east over the North Dateline region over the coming weekend with seas to 46 ft. Will believe it when it happens. Down south a gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Sun (4/3) tracking east-northeast across the South Pacific through Thurs (4/7) with seas 26-30 ft. That swell is fading on Hawaii's southern shores today and just starting to show along the California coast. Beyond a weak gale developed over the Southwest Pacific tracking east Sat-Mon (4/11) producing 25-26 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond the models are teasing about a gale forming just southeast of New Zealand tracking east-northeast Sat-Tues (4/19) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed northeast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (4/12) the jet was split and fragmented mess over the entirety of the North Pacific forming no troughs and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to remain split offering nothing in terms of support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours and interesting change is forecast with the jet becoming consolidated off the North Kuril Islands on Fri (4/15) with winds at 150 kts blowing over the Central Aleutians and carving out a trough over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 170 kts winds then moderating while falling into the Central and Eastern Gulf on Sun-Mon (4/18) perhaps supporting local weather along the North California coast. And another trough is forecast developing on Mon (4/18) over the North Dateline being fed by 160 kts winds perhaps offering support for gale development there while falling an building on Tues (4/19) over the Western Gulf being fed by 190 kts winds. An interesting late season change is possible, right when we'd given up hope.
On Tuesday (4/12) only locally generated north windswell was hitting California and east windswell for exposed breaks in Hawaii.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But we are monitoring a tropical system in the far West Pacific which has potential beyond (see Tropical Update below).
Strong high pressure is to hold off North CA through Tues (4/12) but is to fade beyond as a series of weak low pressure system perhaps bring a chance of weather (but no swell production potential).
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Typhoon Malakas was tracking north 600 nmiles off the Central Philippines on Tues AM (4/12) with winds 85 kts. Malakas is to continue on a north-northeast heading through Friday (4/15) peaking Tues PM with winds 125 kts then slowly fading from there with winds down to 50 kts late Fri PM (4/15) positioned 600 nmiles west of Tokyo Japan. The GFS model has Malakas turning extratropical on Sun (4/17) off the North Kuril Islands then turning east with winds building to 60 kts pushing over the dateline with seas 46 ft aimed east before fading with winds 45-50 kts solid on Mon (4/18) moving into the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 40 ft. And on Tues (4/19) Malakas is to be fading while falling southeast with winds 35-40 kts over a broad area in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 31 ft. Something to monitor.
California Nearshore Forecast
Water temps are very low north of Pt Conception due to upwelling from strong northwesterly winds 5 days previous.
- Wed (4/13) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for all of North CA and 20-25 kts from Monterey Bay over the remainder of Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino with weak low pressure just off the coast and light winds from Pt Reyes south to Pigeon Point then northwest 20 kts to Pt Conception. Light rain down to Pt Arena early and building some in intensity through the day reaching Pt Reyes in the evening as snow develops for Tahoe.
- Thurs (4/14) morning southwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and light down to Morro Bay but north 20+ kts over Pt Conception. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for all of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA down to Big Sur and northwest 20 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Rain continuing solid for North CA reaching Santa Cruz early and snow for Yosemite northward early. Snow fading over the Central and Northern Sierra and gone by sunset with rain fading south to Santa Cruz later.
- Fri (4/15) light winds are forecast for all of North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA but 20 kts near Pt Conception. Low pressure is to be building off the coast. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA mainly south of Morro Bay. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino mid-day then falling to the Golden Gate in the evening. Light snow for Tahoe late afternoon into the early evening.
- Sat (4/16) the low impacts the coast early with north winds building in strong behind at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 15-20 kts over a shallow area along the North and Central Coasts. Rain is expected for the north and Central coast down to Morro Bay early then fading out in the early afternoon. Moderate snow for the Sierra early then fading out by afternoon.
- Sun (4/17) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts early for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Mon (4/18) another front sets up along the coast early with south winds 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to be pushing into the North Coast late with southwest winds 15-20 kts before sunset and northwest for Central CA at 10 kts. rain developing early for Cape Mendocino reaching the Golden Santa Cruz late afternoon and to Big Sur in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe later and fairly heavy pushing south overnight.
- Tues (4/19) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts early for all of North and Central CA building in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino early fading late morning.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 39, 45, 31, and 1 inches with about 9 inches on 4/13-4/14 with 18 inches on 4/15 and 12 inches on 4/18. This still seems highly optimistic.
Freezing level 1,000 ft today slowly building to 6,500 ft on 4/15 holding then building to 8200 ft on 4/17 before falling to 4,000 ft late on 4/18. After that temps rise to 10,500 ft on 4/19 holding beyond.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Small swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is supposedly starting to arrive in CA and fading in Hawaii (see Small New Zealand Gale below). And swell from a smaller gale that followed southeast of New Zealand is radiating northeast (see Weaker New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast pushing under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/14) but falling southeast winds seas 29 ft. no swell is to radiate northeast.
Another gale is to develop in the Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (4/16) with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building to 39 ft on Sat AM at 56.25S 127.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be on the far east edge of the Southern CA swell window with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 36 ft T 58.5S 119.5W aimed east. Low odds of background swell radiating north into Southern CA.
Small New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (4/3) a gale developed south of New Zealand producing 35-40 kt west-southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 59S 176.5E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (4/4) 35-40 kt southwest winds were building in coverage with seas 29 ft at 54.5S 168.5W aimed northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 30-40 kt southwest winds were over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 151.25W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/5) fetch was 30-40 kts from the southwest over the Southeast Pacific with seas 27 ft at 48.25S 137.5W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt west winds were tracking east with seas 25 ft at 55.5S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch held Wed AM (4/6) over the Southeastern Pacific from the southwest at 35-45 kts with seas to 27 ft at 52.25S 132W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts from the west over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 31 ft at 58S 122.5W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas dissipated from there while moving east of the California swell window. Small early season swell is radiating northeast.
Southern CA: Swell to build on Tues (4/12) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/13) building to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/14) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/15) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
North CA: Swell to build on Tues (4/12) to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/13) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/14) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/16) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-197 degrees
Weaker New Zealand Gale
A new system started building east of New Zealand on Sat PM (4/9) generating 35-40 kts southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 50S 174W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/10) a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds were pushing east with seas 26 ft at 46S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was pushing east at 30-35 kts with 25 ft seas at 47S 158W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/11) the gale was fading some with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas 24 ft at 47S 143W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the west with seas 26 ft over a small area at 51S 142W. The gale faded from there.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/16) building to 1.4 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/17) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). swell fading on Mon (4/18) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (4/19) fading from 1.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/18) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (4/19) to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/20) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (4/21) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/22) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/18) building to 0.9 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (4/19) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/20) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (4/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/22) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (4/16) a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 55S 180W aimed northeast. In the evening 45 kt southwest winds are to be pushing northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 172W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/17) south winds are to be 40 kts aimed well north over a decent sized area with seas 30 ft at 49N 164W aimed northeast. In the evening 40 kt south winds are to be lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 46.5S 159.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/18) 35-40 kt south winds are to continue lifting north with seas 30 ft at 44S 153W aimed northeast. The gael is to be fading in the evening with 35 kts south winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 40S 145W aimed northeast. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
La Nina Weakening - Kelvin Wave Erupting - No Warm Water Behind
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that is erupting over the Galapagos with water temps on the rise there, but still solidly in La Nina territory over the Central Pacific. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) previously delayed is developing. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a 3rd year of La Nina is projected by the CFS model, though that is not certain. Much steady west anomalies are forecast from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems biased towards another year of La Nina.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/12) west anomalies were modest filling the far West KWGA to 140E with modest east anomalies east of there. The 7 day forecast calls for no change with modest west anomalies reaching east to 140E and holding position and strength through the end of the model run on 4/19 with modest east anomalies holding down the balance of the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/11) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated today in the KWGA. The statistical model indicates no change through day 50 of the model run then turning purely neutral on day 10 and on day 15 the INactive Phase is to move over the KWGA. The dynamic model projects a weak Active Phase holding through day 5 in the KWGA then fading to neutral on day 10 only to return to weakly Active on day 15. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/12) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the West Pacific and is forecast to track east over Africa and weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase moving into the West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/10) A moderate Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the West Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Active Phase (wet air) moving east while slowly fading moving to the Central Pacific and into Central America on 4/27. The Inactive Phase is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/23 and modest, tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Central America on 5/13. The Active Phase (wet air) is to take over the West Pacific on 5/5 pushing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 5/20 as the Inactive Phase starts building over the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/11) The Active Phase has dissipated from the KWGA today with west anomalies limited to the far west KWGA. East anomalies are modestly filling the bulk of the KWGA. The forecast has west anomalies rebuilding some filling the KWGA to 160E 4/15-4/18, then dissipating. East anomalies are to hold on the dateline weakly during that period. East anomalies are to start building some over the bulk of the KWGA starting 4/20 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO pushes east over the KWGA starting 4/28 and holding through the end of the model run on 5/9 with east anomalies building to moderate status on 5/7.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/12 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east filling the KWGA except with a pocket of east anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts the Active Phase continuing pushing over the KWGA through 5/5 with west anomalies finally filling the entirety of the KWGA starting 4/14. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to follow starting 4/25 in the west holding through 5/28 with west anomalies fading some but still filling the entirety of the KWGA. The Active Phase is to reappear on 5/25 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/10 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA up to the dateline. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast slowly easing east and pushing east to the dateline 7/1 with the second contour fading away on 7/1. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 110E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast moving slowly but steadily east from now on reaching 165E on 7/1. A second contour line is to appear at 120E on 6/20. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, but finally started moving east on 3/25 and is still doing that today. Something to monitor. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July 2021 is done. East anomalies are to recenter themselves at 135W starting 5/4 and holding for the foreseeable future. All this suggest the full demise of La Nina if this occurs as forecast. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, and we're almost past its peak now meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production. And that even looks unlikely. The model had been constantly shifting the arrival of the low pressure bias into the KWGA almost daily but that seems to not be the case lately. So the future remains uncertain but cautiously optimistic. The demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 150W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific at +1C down 25m centered at 105W pushing east and fading. A broad area of -2C cool anomalies were in between the two centered at 125W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/8 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 150W-80W at -3 degs C and appears to be now be shifting east and weakening while the remnants of the Kelvin Wave in the east fade. And perhaps a new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific with its leading edge at 155W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights were rising some over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline into the Galapagos along the 5N latitude line. And a broad area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator between 155W to 80W with a imbedded pocket previously at -15 cms now was -10 cms centered at 140W and losing coverage. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from 170W and west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the previous Kelvin Wave was gone but with a pocket of cool anomalies fading from -1.0 degs between 90W-155W. And it almost looks like a Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 165W. It is unknown whether cool anomalies will return in earnest moving forward or whether another Kelvin Wave is developing.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/11) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west from 135W dissipating on the dateline. Warming waters fading fast from Ecuador west beyond the Galapagos and in a few pockets out to 135W. A broad pocket of cool water was off the coast of Peru starting at 95W extending west and reaching up to the equator out at 135W continuing to the dateline. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/11): A strong of small pockets of cooling were present between Ecuador west to 125W on the equator. Otherwise a neutral trend was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (4/11) The deep cold core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. But persistent residual cool waters were covering a large area starting at 120W to 160E on the equator and from 90W off South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/12) Today's temps were down hard at -0,770 and have steadily been fading the past 14 days after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/12) Today's temps were steady at -0.754 after rising to -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading some after that.
Forecast (4/12) - Temps are to continue falling to -1.40 degs in early May and then slowly rising to about -1.00 degs in July more or less holding there into Dec, then rising more directly beyond. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.05 degs in May then rising to about -0.75 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.90 degs in Nov. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.738 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.315 degrees in May, then rising to -0.287 degs in July and hovering there through Sept then rising to near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer. Still, this latest update is cooler and slower in returning to normal than the previous forecast.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (4/12) the daily index was positive at +24.44 after peaking at +31.80 on 4/6, +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +13.37 down some from the highest in a year on 3/27 at + 13.46, after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +10.61 today after previously peaking at +9.36 on 3/22 and +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table