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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, April 7, 2022 1:30 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.6 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 4/4 thru Sun 4/10

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

North Pacific Going to Sleep
Southern Hemi Coming Online

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, April 7, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.6 ft @ 6.5 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 136 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 331 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 271 degrees. Wind east at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 62.6 degs, 59.9 (Topanga 103), 60.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.9 (Del Mar 153), 61.9 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.5 ft @ 12.5 secs from 296 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 247 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.4 secs from 217 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs from 263 degrees. Water temp 62.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 12.9 secs from 288 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was north at 2-4 kts. Water temp 51.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.4 (46026), 54.5 (SF Bar 142), and 55.0 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/7) North and Central CA had set waves at head high to maybe 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with some decent form. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up and clean with light wind but somewhat closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and super clean and lined up with good form but very weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and lined up and real clean with good form. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean conditions but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form and real clean and fun. North San Diego had sets at chest to maybe head high and lined up with decent form and glassy when the sets came. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at chest to head high and lined up with decent form and clean conditions. The South Shore was maybe thigh high on the sets and weak but clean. The East Shore was waist high and heavily chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (4/7) California was getting leftover swell from a gale that developed in the Gulf peaking on Mon (4/4) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was background swell from low pressure previously over the North Dateline region producing 17 ft seas aimed southeast. getting sideband energy from the same system. But beyond virtually no swell producing weather systems are forecast for the North Pacific. It looks like Winter is over and we're moving directly into a Summer time weather pattern. Down south a system developed southeast of New Zealand on Sun (4/3) tracking east-northeast across the South Pacific through Thurs (4/7) with seas 26-30 ft. Beyond a weak gael is forecast over the Southwest Pacific tracking east Sun-Mon (4/11) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another is to develop southeast of New Zealand on Mon (4/11) producing 29 ft seas aimed northeast for 24 hours. But nothing solid is charted. Summer is trying to come online.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/7) the jet was split multiple ways off Japan with a weak remnant flow tracking east on the 40N latitude line eventually ridging northeast over British Columbia with no troughs offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to remain split over Japan and splitting again on the dateline offering nothing in terms of support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours no change is forecast with a fragmented jetstream flow forecast through Thurs (4/14) offering no support for gale development. It appears Summer is here, or at least starting to show very early.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/7) residual swell swell from a gale previously over the Gulf was fading in North and Central CA (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Strong high pressure is to start building off of North CA on Fri AM (4/8) at 1038 mbs producing northwest winds at 30+ kts along the entire North and Central CA coast through the weekend resulting in larger but very raw locally generated northwest windswell and poor surf conditions (see QuikCASTs for details).

The high is to also generate a broad fetch of 20+ kt northeast to east winds extending from California over Hawaii producing solid easterly windswell at exposed breaks in the Hawaiian Islands (see QuikCASTs for details).

 

Gulf Gale
On Sun AM (4/3) another gale started building in the Northwestern Gulf with 40-45 kts west winds over a small area and seas building from 23 ft at 47.75N 157.75W aimed east. In the evening 45 kt west winds were over the Northeastern Gulf with seas 31 ft at 49.25N 145.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (4/4) it moved east with 45 kts west winds off North British Columbia with 34 ft seas at 49N 136.25W aimed east. The gale moved inland over Vancouver Island in the evening. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (4/7) from 4.2 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (4/8) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft) and buried in locally generated northwest windswell. Swell Direction: 310-320 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
Water temps, if they are not already cold enough, are to drop shortly due to upwelling from strong northwesterly winds (see below).

  • Fri (4/8) northwest winds are to be on the rise again at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for all of North CA and 20-25 kts solid for Central CA.
  • Sat (4/9) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA early and 30 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 35-40 kts for North CA and 30 kts for Central CA.
  • Sun (4/10) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to still be 30-35 kts for North CA and 25-30 kts for Central CA.
  • Mon (4/11) morning northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts down to the Golden Gate then 20-25 kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon another bout of high pressure sets up with northwest winds 25 kts for all of North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Rain developing over North CA falling south to Big Sur in the afternoon. Snow for Tahoe in the late afternoon.
  • Tues (4/12) morning northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 25-30 kts for Central CA and possibly 20 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 25-30 kts for Central CA and possibly to 20 kts for Southern CA
  • Wed (4/13) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of north and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fading to 15-20 kts for North CA and 20 kts steady for Central CA. Rain developing for North CA falling south to Bodega Bay in the evening.
  • Thurs (4/14) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain continuing to North CA barely reaching the Golden Gate. Snow developing for Tahoe early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 39, 43, 38, and 13 inches split between 4/11 and 4/15. This seems highly improbable.

Freezing level building to 12,000 ft holding till 4/9 then steadily falling to 3.000 ft late on 4/11. A rebuild back to 7,000 ft starts 4/13 pushing to 9.000 ft on 4/15.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Small swell from a gale previously under New Zealand is radiating towards Southern CA (see Background Swell below). And small swell from a gale that followed southeast of New Zealand is radiating north towards Hawaii and CA (see Small New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand Gale (below) is to be the only system of interest.

 

Background New Zealand Swell
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Fri PM (4/1) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds with seas building to 28 ft at 60S 172E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (4/2) 40 kts southwest winds continued with seas barely 30 ft at 60S 177W aimed northeast. in the evening fetch faded from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 60S 168W aimed northeast. Background swell is to be pushing into Southern CA.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/8) building to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (4/9) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (4/10) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs(2.0-02.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (4/3) a gale developed south of New Zealand producing 35-40 kt west-southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 59S 176.5E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (4/4) 35-40 kt southwest winds were building in coverage with seas 29 ft at 54.5S 168.5W aimed northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 30-40 kt southwest winds were over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 151.25W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/5) fetch was 30-40 kts from the southwest over the Southeast Pacific with seas 27 ft at 48.25S 137.5W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt west winds were tracking east with seas 25 ft at 55.5S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch held Wed AM (4/6) over the Southeastern Pacific from the southwest at 35-45 kts with seas to 27 ft at 52.25S 132W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts from the west over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 31 ft at 58S 122.5W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas dissipated from there while moving east of the California swell window. Small early season swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/9) with swell building to 1.4 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). On Sun (4/10) expect swell building through the day to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/11) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/11) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell to build on Tues (4/12) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/13) building to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/14) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/15) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/11) building to 0.75 ft @ 18 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell to build on Tues (4/12) to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (4/13) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/14) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/16) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-197 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest high pressure fading some along California but still generating northwest winds at 20-25 kts along North and Central CA producing raw locally generated northwest windswell. Fetch is to also hold pushing over the Hawaiian Islands at 15+ kts Mon-Thurs (4/14) still producing some degree of easterly windswell along exposed east facing breaks.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun AM (4/10) a new system is to start building east of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 57S 165W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be pushing east at 35-40 kts with 26 ft seas at 57.5S 154W aimed east. On Mon AM (4/11) the gale is to fade some but still with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 45S 143W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts from the west with seas 28 ft over a small area at 50S 139W. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Another small gale is to develop on Mon AM (4/11) southeast of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 60S 180W aimed northeast. In the evening 35 kt southwest winds to push east with seas 29 ft at 60S 170W aimed east-northeast. Fetch dissipating on Tues AM (4/12) with seas fading from 25 ft at 60S 158W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Weakening - Kelvin Wave Erupting - No Warm Water Behind
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that is erupting over the Galapagos with water temps on the rise there, but still solidly in La Nina territory over the Central Pacific. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) previously delayed is developing. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a 3rd year of La Nina is projected by the CFS model, though that is not certain. Much steady west anomalies are forecast from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems biased towards another year of La Nina.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/7) west anomalies were moderate to strong filling the West KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies over the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for more of the same unchanged but east anomalies starting to track east through the end of the model run on 4/14.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (4/6) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today in the KWGA. The statistical model indicates no change through the last day of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model projects a dead neutral pattern for the next 5 days turning to an Active Phase on day 10 in the KWGA and filling the KWGA then weakening some on day 15. The 2 models are mostly in sync except 2 weeks out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(4/5) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast to track east to the East Pacific and weak for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but the Active Phase building to modest strength while crossing the West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/6) An Active MJO signal (wet air) was moderately over the West Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Active Phase (wet air) moving east while slowly fading moving to the Central Pacific and into Central America on 4/26. The Inactive Phase is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/21 and weak, tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Central America on 5/11. A neutral or very weak Active Phase (wet air) is to take over the West Pacific on 5/6 pushing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 5/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/6) A solid Active signal was moving over the KWGA today with west anomalies filling the KWGA west of the dateline at moderate strength but east anomalies over the dateline to 150W. The forecast has west anomalies holding over the KWGA through 4/18 with east anomalies holding solid on the dateline through 4/8 then slowly fading and almost gone on 4/15. The Active Phase is to push east of the KWGA on 4/20 while building with solid west anomalies over the East Pacific 4/11-3/25 but of no use to anyone. East anomalies are to take over the KWGA starting 4/20 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO pushes east over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/4.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/7 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east filling the KWGA except with a pocket of east anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts the Active Phase continuing pushing over the KWGA through 4/30 with west anomalies finally filling the entirety of the KWGA starting 4/14. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to follow starting 4/19 in the west holding through 6/6 with west anomalies fading some but still filling the entirety of the KWGA. The Active Phase is to reappear on 6/2 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/5 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA up to the dateline. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast slowly easing east and pushing east of the dateline 6/10 with the second contour fading away on 6/10. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 110E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast moving slowly but steadily east from now on reaching 170E on 5/17. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, but finally started moving east on 3/25 and is still doing that today. Something to monitor. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July 2021 is done. And today's run of the model now suggests those east anomalies are to recenter themselves at 135W starting 4/29 and holding for the foreseeable future. All this suggest the full demise of La Nina if this occurs as forecast. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, and we're in it now meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production. The model had been constantly shifting the arrival of the low pressure bias into the KWGA almost daily but that seems to not be the case lately. So the future remains uncertain but cautiously optimistic. The demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias which is to be starting to move east now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was barely present at 161E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 173E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 155W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific at +1C down 25m centered at 105W pushing east and fading. A broad area of -2C cool anomalies were in between the two centered at 135W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 155W-120W at -5 degs C and appearing to be growing in coverage and intensity while the remnants of the Kelvin Wave in the east fade. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/3) Sea heights were rising some over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline into the Galapagos along the 5N latitude line. But the highlight remains a broad pocket of negative anomalies over the equator between 155W to 90W but rising from -15 cms to -10 cms today centered at 140W. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked west of the dateline. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the previous Kelvin Wave was fading at 80W-90W with cool anomalies fading from -1.5 degs between 120W-160W. And it almost looks like a Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 165W. It is unknown whether cool anomalies will return in earnest moving forward or whether another Kelvin Wave is developing.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/6) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west from 135W dissipating on the dateline. Warming waters were building from Ecuador west beyond the Galapagos to 135W. A broad pocket of cool water was off the coast of Peru starting at 95W extending west and reaching up to the equator out at 135W continuing to the dateline. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/6): A few small pockets of cooling were present from Ecuador west to 100W on the equator. Otherwise a neutral trend was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (4/6) The deep cold core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. Residual cool waters were covering a large area starting at 120W to 160E on the equator and from 90W off South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/7) Today's temps were fading the past 14 days down to -0.321 after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(4/7) Today's temps were fading some at -0.806 after rising to -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading some after that.
Forecast (4/7) - T
emps are to continue falling to -1.40 degs in early May and then slowly rising to about -1.00 degs in July more or less holding there into Dec, then rising more directly beyond. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.10 degs in May then rising to about -0.65 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.85 degs in Nov. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.738 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.315 degrees in May, then rising to -0.287 degs in July and hovering there through Sept then rising to near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer. Still, this latest update is cooler and slower in returning to normal than the previous forecast.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (4/7) the daily index was positive at +23.07 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +11.60 down some from the highest in a year on 3/27 at + 13.46, after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +8.44 today after previously peaking at +9.36 on 3/22 and +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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