Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 15.9 secs from 3054 degrees. Water temp 77.7 (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 13.3 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 9.5 ft @ 16.7 secs from 334 degrees. Water temp 76.5 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 12.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 8.8 ft @ 13.7 secs from 337 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 219 degrees. Wind N 6 kts. Water temperature 55.4 degs, 53.1 (Harvest 071), 55.6 (Topanga 103), 54.5 (Long Beach 215), 54.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 55.4 (Del Mar 153), 55.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.9 secs from 227 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 187 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.7 ft @ 16.0 secs from 208 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 190 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 16.0 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 199 degrees. Water temperature 59.2 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 20.8 secs from 285 degrees. Wind northwest 6-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNE 4-5 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and ESE 0-2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 54.0 (SF Bar 142), 53.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.9 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/6) in North and Central CA waves were up to 1 ft overhead on the rare sets early and totally closed out and clean. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. In Ventura County waves were knee high on the sets and weakly lined up and clean with minimal form and soft and mushed with some texture on top. Central Orange County had sets at up to waist high and lined up coming from the north and south and clean but soft with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were up to waist high and lined up with decent form but soft and clean but with intermixed warble. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up with decent form when they came but soft and clean but with texture on top. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 12-15 ft Hawaiian and clean but too much power for most breaks. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was double overhead and lined up getting wrap around northwest swell but chopped with brisk east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/6) swell was hitting California and Hawaii originating from of a broad gale in the Western Gulf Thurs-Sat (4/5) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast and equally split between targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. After that the North Pacific is to shut down though one small gale is possible just west of the dateline Fri-Sat (4/12) with seas to 22 ft aimed southeast. Down south a small gale developed south of New Zealand and another broader one formed in the Southeast Pacific. Swell from both are tracking north. Another small gale is forecast just east of New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/9) producing 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another is to develop under New Zealand Sat (4/12) producing 37 ft seas aimed east. Summer is starting to get some traction.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (4/6) the jetstream was was triple split over Japan with some energy tracking northeast over Siberia and over the Bering Sea then fading out, some tracking northeast up to the Central Aleutians then falling southeast forming a trough off the Pacific Northwest being fed by 140 kt winds offering some support for low pressure formation, and the final stream tracking east off Japan and fading while pushing south of Hawaii. In all a weak late season pattern appears apparent. Over the next 72 hours the main branch of the jet is to track due east on the 45N latitude line Mon (4/7) pushing inland over Oregon forming no troughs until Wed (4/9) when the jet is to start falling south being fed by 130 kt winds briefly offering some support for low pressure development. But that trough is to weaken and be gone by Thurs (4/10) offering nothing then. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to be highly fragmented and muddled until Sat (4/12) while it tries to consolidate with most energy tracking east only 45N latitude line with a small trough developing in that flow just west of the dateline on Sun (4/13) and another in the Gulf both being fed by 130 kts winds offering some hope.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/6) swell from a gale previously in the Gulf of Alaska was hitting Hawaii and California (see Gulf Gale below).

Gulf Gale
Starting Wed AM (4/2) a small gale starting building 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with 35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 18 ft. In the evening northwest winds started building in coverage at 35 kts with seas 20 ft at 37N 167.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (4/3) additional fetch started building over the same area producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 22 ft at 37.5N 162.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were 45 kts solid over a broad area aimed southeast with seas building from 29 ft at 45.5N 166W. Fri AM (4/4) northwest winds were 40 kts solid over a 750 nmile fetch aimed targeting midway between Hawaii and Baja with seas 33 ft at 42.75N 160.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading while turning more westerly at 35-40 kts and holding coverage with seas 30 ft at 42.5N 154W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (4/5) west fetch was fading from 30-35 kts targeting only the US West Coast with seas 25 ft at 46N 157.75W aimed east targeting California up to Washington. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts over a quickly shrinking area with seas 22 ft at 43.75N 151W aimed east.

Oahu: Swell solid Sun AM (4/6) at 8.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (12.5 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (4/7) from 6.3 ft @ 14 secs (8.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (4/8) fading from 4.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (4/9) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 350-355 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (4/6) building to 5.3 ft @ 18 secs late (9.5 ft). Swell peaks on Mon (4/7) early at 7.1 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (4/8) from 6.4 ft @ 13 secs (8.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/9) fading from 5.3 ft @ 12 secs (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292-294 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/7) building to 2.8 ft @ 16 secs late AM (4.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell stable Tues (4/8) at 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/9) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 297-299 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/7) southwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and west-southwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts over Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts for the SF Bay Area and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain fading for all of North CA early down to Santa Cruz. Lingering showers for the North Sierra and Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.
Tues AM (4/8) southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/9) northwest winds to be 10+ kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (4/10) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (4/11) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 20-25 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast other than showers for Cape Mendocino.
Sat AM (4/12) high pressure takes hold with northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA early and 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 20-30 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/13) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 25-30 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling some to 7,000-7,500 ft on 4/7 then building from there to 12,000 ft on 4/9-4/10. Freeze level perhaps fading to 7,500 ft late on 4/12 then rebuilding to 10,500 ft 4/13 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Small swell from a tiny gale that formed south of New Zealand was poised for Hawaii and tracking northeast towards CA (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below). Also swell from a far broader gale previously in the Southeast Pacific was tracking northeast towards California and points south of there (see Southeast Pacific Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing just east of New Zealand on Tues AM (4/8) with south winds 45 kts over a small area aimed northeast and seas 27 ft at 44.75S 179E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to be 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 45.5S 171W. On Wed AM (4/9) southerly winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 48.25S 168.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading some in the evening with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 48.75S 166W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Thurs AM (4/10) from 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 48S 158W aimed northeast. Fetch fading after that. Larger swell possibly for Tahiti and smaller swell for Hawaii and California.

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A tiny gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat PM (3/29) producing south winds at 50-55 kts just off Antarctica with seas building from 31 ft at 67S 171E aimed north. On Sun AM (3/30) south winds were 45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 32 ft at 67S 177.5E aimed north. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 64.25S 174W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Oahu: Small swell is expected to arrive at sunset on Mon (4/7) pushing 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (4/8) to 1.3 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.0 ft). Swell builds a little more on Wed (4/9) reaching 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/10) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Perhaps tiny swell to start showing on Thurs (3/10) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (3/11) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A broad gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (4/2) producing southwest winds at 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 62S 153.25W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (4/2) southwest winds were lifting well north at 40 kts over a solid area with seas building from 30 ft at 54.75S 144.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 52S 136.25S aimed northeast. Fetch held Fri AM (3/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 51S 128.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds faded from 30-40 kts on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 34 ft at 48S 120.75W aimed northeast. Fetch moved east of the Southern CA swell window on Sat AM (4/5) with south winds 30 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 44.25S 114.75W targeting Peru and Chile well. Swell is radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (4/10) 1.3 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building Fri (4/11) to 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/12) to 3.0 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading some Sun (4/13) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals Mon (4/14) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/11) to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/12) to 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading some Sun (4/13) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals Mon (4/14) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

South America Gale
Another gale developed on the east edge of the Southern CA swell window on Sat PM (4/5) with south winds 40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 55S 122W aimed northeast. On Sun (4/6) the gale is to push east with south winds 50-55 kts kts and seas 35 ft at 55.75S 113.25W targeting South America well but east of the Southern Ca swell window. Fetch tracking northeast in the evening at 50 kts from the southwest with seas 39 ft at 52.25S 102W aimed northeast still targeting South America. On Mon AM (4/7) southwest winds to be 30-35 kts and seas 33 ft at 54.25S 93.5W aimed northeast targeting Chile and Peru. No swell to result for the US West Coast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a primer gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sat (4/12) producing seas to 34 ft at 62S 167W aimed mostly east.

Another gale is to be directly behind south of New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/13) producing up to 39 ft seas at 59.75S 166.5E aimed east.

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/5) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/6) Today moderate east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA with weak west anomalies at the entrance to the KWGA. The forecast indicates the pattern holding till 4/16 when east anomalies move east filling the East KWGA and weak to moderate west anomalies fill the West KWGA and building some through the end of the model run to 4/22. La Nina is to be fading.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/5) Currently a neutral MJO biased weakly Active (wet air) was weakly over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts this pattern holding through day 10 of the model run fading to neutral the last day of the mod run. The Dynamic model indicates some variant of the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/6) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving to Africa 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving from the West to the East Pacific then retrograding back to the West Pacific 2 weeks out and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/6) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA and forecast filling the KWGA while tracking east through 4/21. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 5/1 filling it through the last day of the model run on 5/16 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/5) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are forecast holding through 4/14 with Inactive Contours over that area. West anomalies are to start pushing east into the KWGA on 4/12 pushing east to half way across the KWGA on 4/18 and holding through the end of the model run with Active contours in the KWGA starting 4/17 pushing over the dateline at the end of the model run on 5/3. East anomalies are to be fading to nothing over the East KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA but with Active Phase contours reaching east to 170E. Active contours are to dissipate on 4/10 with weak east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to fully set up on 4/20 with west anomalies building quickly filling the KWGA on 4/22 and in control if not building to strong status 4/30 then the contours fading 5/20. West anomalies are to fill the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/4 signaling the end of La Nina. A weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 5/1 holding over the KWGA through 6/17 but with west anomalies fully in control of most of the Pacific. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/12 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to strong status over the dateline. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 4/30 and reaching the dateline 6/19 and well east of there at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up 6/3. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 3 contours. The third is to fade 4/27 and the second 5/10. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/24. This suggests La Nina is poised to start dissipate in the atmosphere by mid-April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now charging east to 180W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density in the east with a 28 deg contour now appearing there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +3 degs in the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs were present down 110 meters at 155W and -2 degs at 120W and -1 degs reaching east to 105W and blocked by more eastward progress by warmer water in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) from 155E east to 120W at only -0.5 to -1.0 degs. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 140W and negative at -5 to -10 cms from 140W west to 170W with 2 pockets to 15 to 20 cms straddling the equator at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/29) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant at 160W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 145W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/2) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was collapsing over the West Equatorial Pacific west of 160W. The only real cool pool was holding from 130W to 160W. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W and building in density. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading with a very El Nino like pattern setting up off Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/5): Temps were neutral over the equator and warming off Ecuador and the Galapagos. Temps were warming from 160W to New Guinea.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +1.176 after falling to +0.409 (3/23) after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) Today's temps were falling some -0.493 after fading to -0.399 (3/21) fueled by a building Inactive MJO, and that after after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were positive at +0.2 week of 3/26. Previously temps were +-0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (4/6) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March and are to fade in April to -0.25, rising to +0.20 in July and rising gradually to +0.50 degs in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/5) the Daily Index was negative at -4.83 and falling but otherwise steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was falling some at +10.40 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +6.73 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.