Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 244 degrees. Water temp 78.8 (Barbers Pt), 78.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 322 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 7.7 secs from 268 degrees. Wind NE 12-16 kts. Water temperature 56.1 degs, 52.7 (Harvest 071), 51.8 (Topanga 103), 52.5 (Long Beach 215), 55.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 54.5 (Del Mar 153), 55.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.4 ft @ 9.7 secs from 305 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 6.5 ft @ 9.4 secs from 310 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.5 ft @ 7.4 secs from 259 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 3.3 ft @ 7.6 secs from 278 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.4 ft @ 8.2 secs from 274 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.6 ft @ 8.5 secs from 285 degrees. Water temperature 56.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 8.8 secs from 318 degrees. Wind northwest 16-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 19-23 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and WSW 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 54.1 (SF Bar 142), 53.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.5 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/3) in North and Central CA waves were chest to maybe head high and lined up if not closed out and clean early but mostly just clean windswell. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and lined but mostly closed out and clean with no wind early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft and weak. In Ventura County waves were waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft and mushed. Central Orange County had sets at chest high or so and lined up coming from the north and clean but soft and a bit closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh high or so and soft and formless but clean and not very rideable. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up if not closed out but soft and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up with poor form and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was knee to thigh high coming from the east and clean with no wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/3) no swell was hitting California or Hawaii other than locally generated windswell. Theoretically some southern hemi swell was hitting California, but there was no evidence of it on the buoys. The models are indicating development of a broad gale in the Western Gulf Thurs-Sat (4/5) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast split between Hawaii and the US West Coast. After that the North Pacific is to shut down. Down south a series of gales have developed south of New Zealand and 1 more are forecast with a second in the Southeast Pacific. Summer is trying to get started.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/3) the jetstream was was split off Japan with most energy ridging northeast tracking up to the Central Aleutians then falling southeast forming a trough over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. The jet consolidated some east of there tracking northeast before falling hard south down the US West Coast forming a backdoor trough with it's apex pushing east over Southern CA. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to consolidate in the west still lifting northeast to the Central Aleutians but the trough getting better dugout over the Gulf being fed by 170 kt winds late Fri (4/4) offering better support for gale formation. The trough is to push up to the Pacific Northwest coast on Sun (4/6) still supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (4/7) the jet is to be pushing off Japan then weakly splitting with most energy lifting northeast just west of the dateline then tracking east on the 43N latitude line pushing onshore over North CA. That flow is to start forming a trough in the far Western Gulf on Tues (4/8) being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale formation. That trough is to persist while easing east into the Central Gulf on Thurs (4/10) Maybe offering more support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/3) no meaningful swell was hitting California or Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to be building over the Central Gulf (see Gulf Gale below).

Gulf Gale
Starting Wed AM (4/2) a small gale starting building 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with 35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 18 ft. In the evening northwest winds started building in coverage at 35 kts with seas 20 ft at 37N 167.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (4/3) additional fetch is to start building over the same area producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 22 ft at 37.5N 162.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 45 kts solid over a broad area aimed southeast with seas building from 29 ft at 45.75N 166.5W. Fri AM (4/4) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts solid over a 750 nmile fetch aimed targeting midway between Hawaii and Baja with seas 34 ft at 43N 161W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading while turning more westerly at 35-40 kts and holding coverage with seas 32 ft at 43.25N 155W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (4/5) west fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts targeting only the US West Coast with seas 29 ft at 43.25N 150W aimed east targeting California up to Washington. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts over a quickly shrinking area with seas 23 ft at 44.25N 143W aimed east.

Oahu: Rough data for planning purposes suggest swell arrival on Fri (4/4) building to 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs later (7.0 ft). Core swell arrives on Sat (4/5) building to 7.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (11.5 ft). Swell solid Sun AM (4/6) at 8.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (12.5 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (4/7) from 6.2 ft @ 14 secs (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 350-355 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (4/4) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early but 20 kts off the Central CA coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (4/5) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North Ca and 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/6) southwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early reaching south to Santa Cruz in the evening . Snow for the highest elevations of Tahoe in the evening.
Mon AM (4/7) southwest winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts down over Central CA early. in the afternoon southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts for the SF Bay Area and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain fading for Cape Mendocino early. Snow fading from Tahoe early.
Tues AM (4/8) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/9) northwest winds to be 10+ kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (4/10) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 1, 3, 2, and 0 inches with some on Sun-Mon (4/7) and a little more on Sat (4/12).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 6,500 on Fri (4/4) rising to 9-10,000 ft (4/5-6) falling some to 7,000 ft late on 4/7 then building from there to 12,000 ft on 4/8. Freeze level perhaps fading to 4,000 ft on 4/12.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a small gale associated with the second of a pair of gales that formed southeast of New Zealand was supposedly hitting CA, but not evidenced on the buoys (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours small swell from another tiny gale that from south of New Zealand was tracking northeast towards HI and CA (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).

Another broader gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (4/2) producing southwest winds at 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 62S 153.25W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (4/2) southwest winds were lifting well north at 40 kts over a solid area with seas building from 30 ft at 54.75S 144.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a large area with seas 31 ft at 51,25S 139.25S aimed northeast. Fetch holds Fri AM (3/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 34 ft at 50.75S 128.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to fade from 30-40 kts on the edge of the Southern Ca swell window with seas 35 ft at 47.25S 120.75W aimed northeast. Fetch moving east of the southern CA swell window on Sat AM (4/5) with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 44.25S 114.75W targeting Peru and Chile well. Something to monitor.

Perhaps another gale is to develop east of the Southern CA swell window on Sun (4/6) with south winds 50 kts and seas 36 ft at 53.5S 104.75W targeting South America well. Fetch holding Mon AM (4/7) at 45 kts from the southwest with seas 39 ft at 53.5S 97W aimed northeast still targeting South America. Something to monitor.

2nd New Zealand Gale
Another gale started developing Fri AM (3/21) south of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and 55 kt south winds producing seas at 37 ft at 63.5S 173E aimed east and northeast. In the evening the gale tracked east with south to southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 40 ft at 67.25S 178.5E aimed northeast. On Sat (3/22) southwest winds were 40-45 kts with 38 ft seas at 66.25S 165W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 63.75S 149.75W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. More swell is radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Swell continues Wed (4/2) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs(2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/3) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/4) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees Very Inconsistent given the small fetch area.

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A tiny gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat PM (3/29) producing south winds at 50-55 kts just off Antarctica with seas building from 31 ft at 67S 171E aimed north. On Sun AM (3/30) south winds were 45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 32 ft at 67S 177.5E aimed north. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 64.25S 174W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Oahu: Small swell is expected to arrive at sunset on Mon (4/7) pushing 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (4/8) to 1.3 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.0 ft). Swell builds a little more on Wed (4/9) reaching 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/10) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Perhaps tiny swell to start showing on Thurs (3/10) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (3/11) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/2) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/3) Today moderate east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA with weak west anomalies at the entrance to the KWGA. The forecast indicates the pattern holding till 4/13 when east anomalies collapse and weak west anomalies fill the KWGA and builds some the last few days of the model run to 4/19. La Nina is to collapse.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/2) Currently a neutral MJO (neither wet nor dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts this pattern holding on day 5 of the model run with a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) setting up over the far West KWGA on days 10 and 15. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with a weak Active pattern (wet air) setting up on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/3) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving to Africa 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it meandering between the East and West Pacific at weak status for the next 15 days.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/3) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA and forecast filling the KWGA while tracking east through 4/23. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 4/28 filling it through the last day of the model run on 5/13 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/2) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA and west anomalies in the far West KWGA. No contours of the Active or Inactive Phase were present. East anomalies are to hold at moderate status filling the East KWGA till 4/13, then easing east to 160E and points east of there with west anomalies pushing east to 155E holding through the end of the model run on 4/30. Active contours to track east into the KWGA on 4/10 reaching east of the dateline at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/3) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today moderate east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with the Inactive Phase contours east of the KWGA. Active contours were reaching east to 170E with west anomalies to 140E. East anomalies are to hold position and strength then fade on 4/8 with west anomalies west of there. The Active Phase is to finally push east filling the KWGA on 4/15 with west anomalies filling the KWGA at that time. West anomalies are to fill the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/1 signaling the end of La Nina. Active Phase contours are to hold through 5/21. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 4/27 holding over the KWGA through 6/17 but with west anomalies fully in control of the Pacific. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/14 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 4/27 and reaching the dateline 6/14 and well east of there at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up 6/25. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 3 contours. The third is to fade 4/19 and the second 5/7. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/21. This suggests La Nina is poised to start dissipate in the atmosphere by mid-April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now easing east again to 177E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density the east with a 28 deg contour now appearing there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +3 degs in the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs were present down 110 meters at 155W and -2 degs at 120W and -1 degs reaching east to 105W and blocked by more eastward progress by warmer water in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 120W at only -0.5 to -1.0 degs above 75 meters. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 140W and negative at -5 to -10 cms from 140W west to 170W with 2 pockets to 15 to 20 cms straddling the equator at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/29) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant at 160W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 140W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/2) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was collapsing over the West Equatorial Pacific west of 160W. The only real cool pool was holding from 130W to 160W. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W and building in density. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading with a very El Nino like pattern setting up off Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/2): Temps were neutral over the equator and warming fast off Ecuador and the Galapagos. Temps were warming from 160W to New Guinea.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/3) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rebuilding to +1.375 after falling to +0.409 (3/23) after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/3) Today's temps were falling some -0.440 after fading to -0.399 (3/21) fueled by a building Inactive MJO, and that after after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were positive at +0.2 week of 3/26. Previously temps were +-0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (4/3) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March and are to fade in April to -0.25, rising to +0.30 in July and rising gradually to +0.80 degs in Oct-Nov. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/3) the Daily Index was positive at +26.82 and steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +10.60 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +6.80 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.