Thursday, March 19, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 194 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 9.1 secs from 23 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.0 secs from 225 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 59.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 197 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.8 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.4 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.1 secs from 193 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 189 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 4-6 kts. Water temp 52.7 degs (013), 55.9 degs (012) and 55.9 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (3/19) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high and soft and generally clean with some light texture on the surface. Protected breaks were flat to occasionally thigh high and clean and mushed and very weak. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and swamped by tide and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were occasionally thigh high and clean and weak. In North Orange Co surf was chest high on the sets and lined up coming from the south but heavily textured/lightly chopped from northwest wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high but pretty lumped up and warbled though local wind was calm. North San Diego had surf in the chest high range and clean and lined up but with a good amount of northwest warble intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves occasionally waist high or so and clean and soft. The South Shore was waist high and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell at waist high or so and warbled and lightly chopped from modest east-southeasterly wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (3/19) in California and Hawaii no swell of interest was hitting from the Northern Hemisphere but in California the fading remnants of a small Southern Hemisphere swell were fading out. Up north a storm developed off Japan late Mon (3/16) tracking east-northeast on Tues (3/17) producing up to 44 ft seas aimed east then racing northeast and moving over the north dateline region on Wed (3/18) with seas fading from 39 ft aimed east. Small swell is radiating east. But nothing else of any real interest to follow. Down south a decent gale formed in the Central and Southeast Pacific Sun- Mon (3/9) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east-northeast. That swell is fading out in California now. Another modest sized gale formed in the Southeast Pacific on Sat (3/14) producing 40-41 ft seas aimed more east than northeast. Small swell is expected for CA for the weekend. A small gale developed northeast of New Zealand Tues-Thurs (2/20) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed north targeting Hawaii. And another gale is forecast forming in the far Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (3/21) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed north but mostly east of the SCal swell window targeting mainly Central America. But nothing is forecast after that. The transition to Spring is underway with Winter all but gone.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (3/19) the jetstream was weakly consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds to 140 kts in tiny pockets tracking east to the dateline then splitting heavily with the northern branch tracking north over the Eastern Aleutians and into Alaska eventually pushing down the North American West Coast and into a backdoor trough centered just off Vancouver Island. The southern branch fell southeast and south of Hawaii then east and over Baja. There was no significant troughs and no support for gale development anywhere in the North Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to start losing definition off Japan and then splitting further west at 160E on Fri (3/20) with winds in the jet getting progressively weaker holding no potential for gale development. The jet is to become a fragmented mess east of there by later Sat (3/21) with the backdoor trough falling south and off North CA perhaps offering some more potential mainly for weather, but not gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (3/23) the jet is to be split over the entirety of the North Pacific starting at 150E (just off Japan) and not showing any signs of reconsolidating until just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a new backdoor trough setting up there on Tues (3/24) offering support for weather. That trough is to fall south and then move inland over Central CA on Wed (3/25) producing some weather there but no support for gale production. By Thurs (3/26) the jet is to be weak and split over the entirety of the North Pacific offering no support for gale development.
On Thursday (3/19) swell from a storm that was developing in the far West Pacific was radiating east (see West Pacific Storm below).
Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing weather systems are forecast.
West Pacific Storm
On Mon AM (3/16) a gale started developing just off Japan producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and getting some traction on the oceans surface with seas building. In the evening 45-50 kt north to northwest winds were building with seas starting to build to 28 ft at 36.5N 155.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/17) a solid fetch of 50-55 kt west winds were mid-way to the dateline with seas building to 41 ft at 40N 160.5E aimed east with decent coverage area. In the evening the fetch is to start lifting northeast and fading from 45 kts with 43 ft seas over a decent sized area at 42.5N 170.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/18) the gale is to lift rapidly northeast and be positioned over the North Dateline region with 45 kt west winds over a decent sized area and 38 ft seas at 47.5N 171E aimed east. In the evening the fetch is to be fading and pushing over the Central Aleutians into the Bering Sea with west winds 35 kts and seas 32 ft over a small area on the North Dateline region at 51N 178.5E no longer offering meaningful support for swell production. Possible modest sized swell to resulting pushing east towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Oahu: Possible swell arrival on Fri (3/20) building to 4.5 ft @ 17 secs (7.5 ft). Swell fading some Sat (3/21) dropping from 4.8 ft @ 15 secs (7.0 ft) early. Residuals fading on Sun (3/22) from 3.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees
North CA: Possible swell arrival on Sun (3/22) building to 4.5 ft @ 17 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (3/19) light winds were occurring and forecast to turn light southerly at 5 kts for Cape Mendocino later. Light rain for Central and Southern CA mainly in the afternoon. Light snow for the Sierra mainly from Tahoe southward late afternoon into the early evening. Fri (3/20) south winds are forecast at 5 kts early for North and Central CA building to 5-10 kts later. Light winds all day for Southern CA. No rain forecast. Maybe some snow for the Central Sierra in the afternoon. Sat (3/21) southeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early building to 10 kts later with low pressure building off the coast. Light winds for Southern CA. Sun (3/22) south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Central CA early and east with 10 kts for North CA building to 10-15 kts later. South winds building to 5-10 kts later for Southern CA. Rain developing for all of Central CA in the afternoon reaching down into all of Southern CA in the evening. Monday (3/23) northwest winds are forecast for North and Central CA at 10-15 kts later as low pressure builds off just Washington. Rain fading in Central and Southern CA early. Light snow for the Central Sierra. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino later. Snow redeveloping lightly for the Tahoe area. On Tues (3/24) the weak low pressure system is to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. A weak front is to be impacting the coast with light rain for all of North and Central CA with modest snow developing for all the Sierra through the day. Wednesday (3/25) high pressure and northwest winds set up at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and also down into Southern CA. Light scattered showers for all of CA. Light snow through the day for the Sierra. Thurs (3/26) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts all day for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 15, 15, 19 and 6 inches respectively.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Swell from a gale previously in in the deep Southeast Pacific was fading in California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another gale formed right behind producing swell that is radiating north (See Another Southeast Pacific Gale below). And yet another gael formed off new Zealand with swell radiating north towards Hawaii (See New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing on Fri AM (3/20) in the far Southeast Pacific off Chile with south winds to continue 45 kts producing 29 ft at 49.5S 109W and well east of the Southern CA swell window. The gale is to build in the evening with a larger area of south winds at 45-50 kts and seas 39 ft at 45.5S 102.5W targeting Central America and Peru. The gale is to start fading Sat AM (3/21) with 40 kt south winds with seas fading from 38 ft at 42.5S 98.5W targeting primarily Peru. Low odds of sideband swell radiating north towards Southern CA but far better for Mexico and Central America.
Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun AA (3/8) a gale started developing in the Central South Pacific producing 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 36 ft at 59N 156W aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 45 kts southwest winds developed aimed well northeast with seas to barely 40 ft at 58S 138.5W aimed northeast. The fetch contracted while pushing east Mon AM (3/9) at 45 kts aimed due north producing seas at 38 ft at 56.5S 127 W aimed northeast. The gael rapidly faded in the evening with 35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 35 ft at 58S 121W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Swell is in the water tracking northeast.
Southern CA: Residuals fading on Thurs (3/19) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (3/20) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190-192 degrees
North CA: Residuals fading on Thurs (3/19) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (3/20) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188-190 degrees
Another Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (3/13) another small gale started building in the Southeast Pacific producing 40-45 kt southwest winds and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening 45 kt southwest winds increased in coverage while nearly holding position with seas building from 39 ft over a small area at 58S 141.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (3/14) the gale was fading while tracking east-northeast with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds and seas 40 ft at 56S 134W aimed east-northeast. The gale was fading in the evening with 35-40 kt west-southwest winds over a smaller area and seas fading from 38 ft at 53.5S 123.5W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there. Small swell to result.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/21) building to 2.1 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (3/22) to 2.5 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (3/23) from 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (3/24) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190-195 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 20 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (3/22) to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (3/23) from 2.3 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (3/24) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
New Zealand Gale
Starting Tues AM (3/17) a small cutoff gale developed just east of North New Zealand producing a small area of south winds to 50 kts and seas 32 ft at 33S 177W aimed north. The gale tracked east fading some in the evening with 40 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 33S 172W aimed north. On Wed AM (3/18) the gale is to track east-southeast with 45 kt south winds and seas building to 34 ft at 38S 166.5W aimed north. In the evening the gale slowly tracked east with 45 kt south winds and seas to 38 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed north. The gale started fading on Thurs AM (3/19) with south winds fading from 35 kts and seas fading from 36 ft at 38.5S 159.5W aimed north. The gale is to fade out after that. Possible swell radiating towards Tahiti and Hawaii.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on later on Mon (3/23) with swell building to 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues AM (3/24) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
MJO Turning Inactive - Long Term Trend Unknown
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water hold in a pool off Peru and has not changed as of late Jan 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/18) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then on over the Dateline and the whole of the KWGA. Anomalies were modestly easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and then modest easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/19) modest east anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building steadily into 3/23 then turning strong focused on the dateline holding through the end of the model run on 3/26.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (3/18) A modest Inactive MJO was starting to fill KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to build strong in the KWGA at day 5 and building some more and holding unchanged through day 15 of the model run easing slowly east but still not even reaching the dateline. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the peak of the Inactive Phase at day 5, then fading and gone at day 15 with with a weak Inactive Phase moving into the far West KWGA at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/19) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over North Africa today and is to track east either holding strength or collapsing over the far East Indian Ocean at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially, with the Active Phase tracking east and building in strength over Indian Ocean, then weakening and retrograding ending up right where it started at day 15 but far weaker.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/19) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was building solidly over the KWGA and is to track east over the East Equatorial Pacific pushing into Central America 4/8 . The Active Phase is to start building moderately over the far West Pacific 4/3 pushing east and into Central America on 4/23. A modest Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific on 4/20 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 4/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/18) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO pattern developing over the West KWGA today with a modest easterly anomaly pattern in the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to push steadily east through the equatorial Pacific 4/3 with moderate plus strength east anomalies in control of the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is to follow starting 3/27 in the West KWGA pushing east and holding through the end of the model run on 4/15 with weak to modest west anomalies in control of the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/19 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a very weak Inactive MJO pattern over the KWGA today with weak to moderate east anomalies in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 4/3 with modest east anomalies in the KWGA. Beyond a moderate Active Phase is forecast developing 4/5 holding through 4/27 with moderate west anomalies in the KWGA during that period. A broad Inactive Phase/Pattern is to develop 4/20 holding through 6/7 with weak west anomalies still in control (during the Inactive Phase). A weak Active Phase is to follow starting 6/7 holding through the end of the model run on 6/16 with weak west anomalies in control of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold unchanged through 3/27, then dissipate with one contour line holding steady through the end of the model run. Today's model suggests the second contour line to reappear 4/15 holding weakly on the dateline through the end of the model run. A high pressure bias previously built in the Indian Ocean last Fall and is to hold till June 10 then dissipate. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and held through Jan 10, then started to become more episodic and are to continue that way through the end of the model run. If anything west anomalies are to start consolidating over the Maritime continent at the end of the model run. The model was previously switching between the continuation of the Indian Ocean high pressure/east wind bias and the low pressure bias over the dateline and the demise of all three in the April timeframe (Springtime 'Predictability Barrier' in full effect).
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was rebuilding some today easing east to 169E. The 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 177W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was a brick wall aligned and steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +2.0 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent under the dateline with it's leading edge pushing east to 108W today. Lesser warm water was pushing into Ecuador at +1 degs. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 150 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/14 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave with warm water falling from 120E down into the dateline at 180m deep peaking there at +2-3 degrees then pushing and rising east to 110W. A pocket of cool water was east of there with a pocket of warm water pushing and impacting Ecuador east of the cool pocket. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/14) A broad pocket of +5-10 cms anomalies is filling the equatorial Pacific between 170E pushing non-stop east to 110W then with a small pocket impacting Ecuador. Fairly impressive.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (3/18) The latest images indicate warm anomalies were modest along the coast of Chile up into Peru and building some from days past with building warm anomalies continuing up along Ecuador up into Central America but with 2 pockets of cool water embedded. Markedly warmer water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos to the dateline, stronger from days past. A broad pocket of cool anomalies was still south of the equator and well off Peru filling the area from 2S south down to 40S reaching west to 140W and east to 100W. A mirror image of it was off California and well off Baja.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/18): Weak warming was off Peru tracking northwest and also off Central America tracking southwest converging at 110W. And a pocket of cooling was developing pushing off Ecuador reaching over the Galapagos out to 115W but then replaced with strong warming west of there on the equator. The short term trend is looking like developing cooling over the far East Equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (3/18) A pocket of cool anomalies is trying to hold south of the equator starting at 5S west of Peru between 100W and 140W. A mirror image of it was also off California and Baja Mexico out to 160W. But warm anomalies were trying to build along Chile and Peru then stronger up to Ecuador and Central America up to Mainland Mexico out over the Galapagos. Warmer than normal water was from the Galapagos out to the dateline and beyond. Water temps appear to be stable and neither El Nino or La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/19) Today's temps were falling some at +0.656, positive in that range since 2/22. Previously temps had been toggling near neutral. It now appears we are in a rising or at least warmer trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/19) Temps were rising at +0.660. Temps previously were in the +0.2 degree range but rose to the +0.4 degree range on 1/4 and have been holding steady ever since.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (3/19) Actual's indicate a cooling blip developed late last summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1 rising to +0.70 degs Jan 1 2020 and holding at +0.65 through Feb. From there temps started falling down to +0.5 degs in mid-March. The forecast depicts temps falling, down to 0.0 in early May then diving negative appearing to be moving strongly to La Nina down at -1.4 in early Oct down to -1.5 degs early Nov and holding there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for Spring of 2020 but falling strongly towards La Nina in the core of Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in June 2020, then falling some to -0.15 degs in the October 2020 timeframe. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (3/19): The daily index was negative today at -14.60. The 30 day average was weakly negative at -0.86 and rising. The 90 day average was steady at -3.07, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table