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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, March 12, 2022 1:08 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.9 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 3/14 thru Sun 3/20

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Mini Japan Swell Pushing Towards CA
Gulf Storm Developing

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, March 12, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.9 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 143 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 14.5 secs from 324 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.9 secs from 271 degrees. Wind northeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 57.9 degs, 58.1 (Topanga 103), 57.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.0 (Del Mar 153), 58.1 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.1 ft @ 11.9 secs from 292 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 252 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.5 secs from 255 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 251 degrees. Water temp 59.9 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 11.5 secs from 275 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 51.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 51.3 (46026), 53.4 (SF Bar 142), and 53.1 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/12) North and Central CA had set waves at about waist high or so and soft and lined up and clean but with some northwest texture on it early. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and clean mostly breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the rare sets and lined up with good form and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the rare sets and clean with decent form when they came and weak with a light northwest winds trying to set up. Central Orange County had sets at waist high or so with decent form but soft and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and clean and soft. North San Diego had some sets in the thigh high range and clean and soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at chest high or so and clean and lined up and soft. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean but weak. The East Shore was knee to thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/12) small locally generated northwest windswell was hitting exposed breaks in North and Central CA with decent conditions early. Hawaii was seeing swell from a weak gale that pushed off Japan Sun-Wed (3/9) and did not make it intact to the dateline with seas at 27 ft aimed east. A small but respectable system is developing north of Hawaii on Sat (3/12) forecast pushing east up to British Columbia on Mon (3/14) with seas building to 46 ft aimed east. Maybe another weaker system is to follow tracking over the dateline Wed (3/16) producing 27 ft sea aimed east. And perhaps another system is to be developing on Sat (3/19) in the Gulf of Alaska with seas to 27 ft. Spring is definitely setting up.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/12) the jet was splitting over Japan but consolidated over the dateline with winds building to 150 kts in one pocket pushing east to 155W with a trough embedded in it and developing offering some support for gale development. The jet then split with the northern branch pushing towards British Columbia with a small and weak trough imbedded in it off Oregon also supporting gale development. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to push east and then fade off Vancouver Island early Mon (3/14) while the East Gulf trough moves onshore early Sun (3/13) over Washington. The jet is to remain split over Japan and unzipping east to just beyond the dateline on Tues (3/15) with wind energy fading with the splitting, and one remaining pocket of consolidated wind energy remaining from a point north of Hawaii to just off the California coast at 140-150 kts forming a weak trough off North CA perhaps supporting gale formation then tracking over Vancouver Island. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (3/16) the jet is to be weak and somewhat split from Japan to a point north of Hawaii then weakly consolidated east of there but with winds only 130 kts pushing into North CA offering some limited hope for weather there. By Thurs (3/17) the jet is to reconsolidate almost over it's entire width with a trough trying to build off Japan pushing east and being fed by a tiny pocket of 140 kts winds and another trough building over the Western Gulf with the same wind velocity offering hope for gale development. The Japan trough to make it to the dateline on Sat (3/19) still intact and the Gulf trough to be just off North CA and washing out. But in general wind energy in the jet appears to be losing strength, with the jet itself losing definition, all a sign of the arrival of Spring.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/12) small swell from a gale that developed off Japan was fading in Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast weakly (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the main focus will be a storm that started developing Fri PM (3/11) just east of the dateline with 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 176.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (3/12) the storm had 50-55 kt northwest winds with seas 39 ft over a small area at 4.251N 167.75W aimed east. In the evening the storm is to be pushing east positioned 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 50 kt west winds and seas 46 ft at 43.75N 159,75W aimed due east. On Sun AM (3/13) the storm is fade to gale status continuing east with 45 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 45.5N 153W aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds are to be off the Pacific Northwest Coast with 38 ft seas at 47.5N 148.75W aimed east. On Mon AM (3/14) 30-35 kt west winds are to be off Washington with 32 ft seas at 49N 142W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate in the evening off Central Canada. Something to monitor.

 

West Pacific Gale
A broad gale started building just east of Japan on Sun PM (3/6) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 36.25N 150.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (3/7) northwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 37N 158.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting north at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 37N 164E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/8) west winds were fading from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 40N 170E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 24 ft at 42N 177E aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading Sat (3/12) from 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (3/13) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft).

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/13) building to 3.3 ft @ 15-16 (5.0 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell fading on Mon (3/14) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (3/15) from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun (3/13) in the morning west to southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and down into Central CA but 15-20 kts from big Sur to Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and light south for the remainder of North CA down to Monterey Bay then 15-20 kts from the northwest southward over Pt Conception. Light rain for North CA north of Pt Arena early. Maybe a dusting of snow for Tahoe in the morning.
  • Mon (3/14) a weak front is poised to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 10 kts and south winds 5 kts down to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds are to be light south of there but 15-20 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon south winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena and south at 5-10 kts to the Golden Gate then northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain developing for Bodega Bay northward in the afternoon pushing south to the Golden Gate overnight.
  • Tues (3/15) morning northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon high pressure starts building in earnest with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA from Monterey Bay southward. Rain for all of North CA early building south to the middle SF Bay mid-AM then stalling. Snow for Tahoe mid-AM.
  • Wed (3/16) the wind machine starts with northwest winds 20 kts for Pt Arena southward early and 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
  • Thurs (3/17) northwest winds are to be 15-20 kts for North CA and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to hold at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Fri (3/18) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 10 kts for North CA and Central CA but 15 kts near Pt Conception.
  • Sat (3/19) light winds are forecast early from the northwest at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA but then high pressure builds strong in the afternoon with northwest winds 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early covering all of North CA mid AM building south to Morro Bay in the afternoon. Snow for the Sierra in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 20, 22, 17, and 2 inches all split between 3/14 and 3/19.

Freezing level 8,500 ft thru 3/18 falling at times to 5,000 ft then falling solidly down to 2,000 ft on 3/21 rising to 10,000 on 3/22.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a tiny gale is forecast developing over the dateline Tues PM (3/15) producing 45 kts north west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 41.25N 156E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (3/16) the gale is to be just east of the dateline with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 25 ft over a small area at 39.5N 177.75W aimed east. In the evening 30 kt west winds are to be fading fast aimed east with 19 ft seas at 37N 172W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Small swell possible mainly for Hawaii.

Also on Thurs PM (3/17) a small gale is to try and develop in the Gulf of Alaska producing 35-40 kt northwest winds with seas building from 19 ft at 43.25N 149.5W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (3/18) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts off the Pacific Northwest with seas 21 ft at 45.75N 145.25W aimed southeast. Fetch is to build in the evening at 45 kts from the northwest with seas redeveloping at 22 ft at 49.75N 147.75W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (3/19) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a decent sized area off the Pacific Northwest with 29 ft seas at 45.75N 140.25W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Weakening - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East - Warm Waters Building over Galapagos
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but now is quickly fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that has reached the Galapagos. Water temps appear to be warming over the East Pacific, but still solidly in La Nina territory over the Central Pacific. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) has been delayed per the models (was early March/now late March). It seemed the the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a solid bout of east anomalies is now to hold to late-March per the CFS model with a 3rd year of La Nina projected. But that seems in doubt too. The outlook is uncertain.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to light west over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/12) moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for moderate to strong east anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA unchanged through the end of the model run on 3/19. No west anomalies are forecast anywhere near the KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/11) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated today in the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a slowly building Inactive signal slowly tracking east to almost the dateline through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same but with the Inactive signal fading to weak status at day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(3/12) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean and is forecast tracking east to the East Indian Ocean over the next 15 days and weak at the end. The dynamic model suggests the same.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/11) A moderate Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was filling the equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move steadily east and into Central America near 3/26. Another Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up in the West Pacific at the end of the model run on 4/20. No clearly defined Active signal (wet air) is forecast for the next 40 days. .
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/11) No MJO signal was indicated today but moderate easterly anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast has no MJO signal forecast over the model run but east anomalies are to build to near strong status 4/13-4/24, then fading some but still at solid moderate status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/8. No westerly anomalies are forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/12 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east over the KWGA to the dateline but producing no west anomalies. Instead east anomalies at near strong status were filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Active Phase holding over the KWGA in earnest through 3/18, then backtracking some on 3/25 then building back to the east and fully pushing over the KWGA starting 3/30 and filling the KWGA through 4/22. East anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through 3/26 then pushing east until west anomalies rapidly taking over the entirety of the KWGA 4/5 and beyond, even as the Active Phase fades. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to follow starting 5/7 but with west anomalies filling most of the KWGA to the dateline through the end of the model run on 6/9. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and forecast holding there until pushing east of the dateline at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast stalled there till 3/25, then moving slowly but steadily east reaching 175E at 5/15 with a second contour building on 5/20. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is supposedly taking it's last stand and will be gone before the end of March. A return to a normal MJO alternating pattern is setting up. And the low pressure bias is to start building reaching the dateline region in later April signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, starting now meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 174E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific at +2C down 65m centered at 125W pushing east. A broad area of neutral to -1C cool anomalies were in between the two centered at 125W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates a pocket of warm water retrograding in the West Pacific with it's leading edge at 165W with the first Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 90W with a pocket of cool anomalies at 145W and appearing to be expanding in coverage with another just off Ecuador and pushing to the surface at 85W while rapidly fading in coverage. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked west of the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to the Galapagos. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the previous Kelvin Wave was holding between 90W-110W with weak cool anomalies between 120-170W. It is unknown whether cool anomalies will return in earnest moving forward.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/11) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west from a bit west of the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. The classic La Nina pattern is in retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and a building along Ecuador out past the Galapagos to 110W. A shallow area of cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/11): Solid warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 140W and reaching 10 degrees north and south of the equator. No cooling was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (3/11) The cold core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. Residual cool waters were still covering a large area starting well off Peru at 90W up to the equator and west to 160W and weaker out to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/12) Today's temps continue upward at +0.332 and have been moving upwards since 2/20, and beating a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(3/12) Today's temps were still slowly rising to -0.914 (starting on 3/9) after falling to -1.012 on 3/8 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022.
Forecast (3/12) - T
emps are to fall to -1.5 degs in early May and holding unchanged till Nov then rising to -1.15 degs in Dec. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.30 degs in May then rising to -1.15 degs in July and holding beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (3/12) the daily index was positive at 16.23 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +8.55 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was steady at +8.11 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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