Sunday, March 11, 2018
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down and not updating.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 227 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 16-18 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.1 secs from 231 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.3 secs from 226 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 218 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 244 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 306 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 8 kts. Water temp 53.8 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (3/11) in North and Central CA local swell was producing waves up to the chest high range on the sets and clean but soft and weak and mostly just waist high. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and clean but soft and gutless. At Santa Cruz surf was up to chest high on the sets and clean from background southern swell. In Southern California up north surf was thigh high on the sets and clean and weak and inconsistent. In North Orange Co surf was waist high and weak and nearly chopped from south winds. South Orange Country's best breaks were thigh to waist high and heavily textured from southerly wind. In North San Diego surf was thigh to waist high at best breaks and reasonably clean. Hawaii's North Shore was chest high and weak and pretty textured from northeast winds. The South Shore was flat and clean. East Shore was getting northeast windswell at chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (3/11) in California no real swell of interest was hitting making for near flat surf conditions. Hawaii was receiving modest northeast windswell driven by high pressure north west of the Islands enhancing trades. A gale developing Fri-Sun (3/11) in the Gulf of Alaska initially producing 28 ft seas falling south to a point 700 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii producing swell that is pushing towards the Islands and somewhat towards the mainland. Remnants of that gale are to redevelop off California Tues-Fri (3/16) possibly producing two pulses of 18 ft seas just off the coast there perhaps resulting in some windswell for later in the week. Beyond a weak system is to form on the Northern Dateline pushing east into the northern Gulf Thurs-Sun (3/18) offering some weak hope. Otherwise a quiet pattern is in control driven by a fading La Nina combining with the Inactive Phase of the MJO.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday AM (3/11) the jetstream was pushing east off Japan almost forming a trough there then splitting halfway to the dateline at 160E with the northern branch tracking north up into the Bering Sea before falling hard south into the Central Gulf of Alaska forming a somewhat pinched trough there before tracking north again pushing inland over Northern Canada. The southern branch was tracking southeast over the dateline then east over Hawaii and then over North Baja and never merged with the northern branch. There was no real support for gale development in the trough over Japan but decent support in the trough in the Gulf. Over the next 72 hours the split point in the jet is to ease east reaching the dateline on Wed AM (3/14) with 140 kts winds pushing consolidated off Southern Japan to the split point with the northern branch not pushing as far to the north and the trough in the Gulf still holding together repositioned just off the Pacific Northwest Coast being fed by 110 kt winds still offering some support for gale development. The southern branch is to remain unchanged. Beyond 72 hours the trough off the Pacific Northwest is to remain cohesive amazingly into Sat (3/18) when it finally starts moving fully onshore over Central CA. But back to the west the northern and southern branches of the jet are to completely split over Japan later Wed (3/14) and by Sun (3/18) the northern branch is to be tracking east on the 50N latitude line while the southern branch is down on the 25N latitude line with no troughs forecast and generally weak offering no support for gale development. A major infusion of winds energy is required and that will not happen till the Active Phase of the MJO develops in the West Pacific. Fortunately that is not too far off.
Swell from a gale in the Gulf of Alaska is pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours additional low pressure energy is to be building just off the North California coast Mon PM (3/12) producing 30 kt west winds and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By Tues AM (3/13) a gale is to result lifting north off Oregon with 45 kt northwest winds over a small area aimed southeast and 22 ft seas at 43N 131W off Southern Oregon. In the evening a fetch of 40-45 kt northwest winds is to be off Vancouver Island with 22 ft seas at 46N 130W and shadowed relative to North CA. Wednesday AM (3/14) fetch is to start pushing southeast and consolidating at 25-30 kts decently positioned off the Ca-Oregon border with seas building. In the evening 25 kt northwest winds to hold off the North CA coast with seas 16 ft at 40N 138W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/15) 25 kt northwest winds to hold off San Francisco with 16 ft seas at 38N 134W aimed southeast at the Central California coast. In the evening fetch is to be holding position at 25-30 kts with seas 18 ft at 39N 131W or 400 nmiles off Pt Arena. fetch is to be fading off Pt Reyes on Fri AM (3/16) from 25 kts with seas fading from 16 ft at 37N 130W. Windswell possible for North and Central CA. Something to monitor.
A broad gale started building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thurs PM (3/8) producing a fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds getting traction and seas building from 22 ft at 50N 170W. Fri AM (3/9) northwest winds were 35+ kt over a broad area pushing southeast from the Eastern Aleutians generating 26-28 ft at 50N 168W. In the evening northwest winds were 30-35 kts over the same area while falling southeast with 27 ft at 48N 164W. On Sat AM (3/10) 30 kt northwest winds continued falling south with seas 24 ft at 46N 163W. Fetch was fading in the evening while falling southeast at barely 30 kts more from the north with 22 ft seas at 40N 160W targeting both Hawaii and California. Seas from previous fetch were fading Sun AM (3/11) at 21 ft at 35N 157W aimed a bit east of Hawaii. This system is to fade from there. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast to result.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival late Sunday afternoon (3/11) pushing 4.2 ft @ 16 secs (6.5 ft). Swell building Mon AM (3/12) peaking late morning at 7.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (10.5 ft) and holding. Swell to be fading Tues AM (3/13) from 5.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.5 ft). residuals on Wed AM (3/14) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 345 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (3/12) 4.3 ft @ 16 secs late AM (6.5 ft). Swell holding Tues AM (3/13) at 4.6 ft @ 14 secs early (6.5 ft) then fading in the afternoon. Swell hanging on Wed AM (3/14) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell dissipating Thurs AM (3/15) from 2.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday AM (3/11) low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska was tracking east but still 1200 nmiles west of California and weak high pressure was inland generating a light offshore flow for North and Central CA but with a weak surface low just south of Pt Conception generating south winds at 10 kts or so into Southern CA and maybe some light rain there too. Monday (3/12) the low is forecast building off the CA coast with south winds increasing to 30 kts from Pt Arena northward and south at 20+ kts from Big Sur northward in the evening. 15 kt south winds south to Pt Conception. Light rain building over the entire North and Central coast late afternoon and into the Sierra 10 PM. Tues (3/13) the core of the low is to lift north and out of the picture with southwest winds 10-15 kts early for Monterey Bay northward fading to 10 kts from the west later in the afternoon. Moderate rain for Pt Conception northward and light rain into Ventura county early evening. Rain turning to snow for Tahoe at 2 PM with snow levels at Tahoe falling from 7200 ft at sunrise to 5000 ft and snow continuing through the night and building down into the Southern Sierra with snow levels 3600 ft. Wednesday (3/14) a new low is to be off the North Coast with south to southwest winds building to 10-15 kts from Pt Conception northward through the day. Light rain building for the SF Bay Area early and spreading to the entire North and Central coast by late afternoon and building to the moderate category continuing through the evening. Snow continues over the Sierra early becoming more focused on Tahoe in the afternoon and less so on the Southern Sierra. Thursday (3/15) the same low holds off the North Coast continuing to push southwest winds at 15-20 kts into Central and most of North CA. Rain solid and continuous through the day and evening over the Central and North Coasts. Light snow building to heavy snow through the day for Tahoe and into the Southern Sierra continuing overnight. Friday (3/16) the low is to still be circulating off Pt Arena early with southwest winds 10-15 kts early for North and Central CA down into Ventura County but with the low falling hard south and moving inland late afternoon. Winds turning north 15 kts for North CA then. Light rain continuing through the day for all of North and Central CA and pushing south from Ventura County to San Diego. Steady moderate snow all day and evening for the entire Sierra. Sat (3/17) north-northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Scattered steady rain continuing all day and evening for the entire state. Light snow for the entire Sierra. Sunday (3/18) northwest winds forecast at 5 kts for all of North and Central CA and 15 kts early for Southern CA fading mid-morning. rain and snow to be gone. Total snow accumulations through Sat 4 PM (3/17) 73-77 inches for Tahoe and 42 inches for Mammoth.
No swell producing weather systems of interest are occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. That said, background southern hemi swell is to be arriving through the week (see QuikCASTs for details).
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing west of Kamchatka on Thurs AM (3/15) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area aimed east and seas to 28 ft over a tiny area at 49N 166E. This system is to ease east in the evening with winds dropping to 40 kts from the west and 28 ft seas at 49N 173E. Fetch is to fade and track east Fri AM (3/16) at 30-35 kts moving over the North Dateline region with 25 ft seas at 50N 178E or just south of the Central Aleutians on the dateline aimed east. fetch is o fade from there in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 50N 173W. residual energy from this system is to track rapidly east and theoretically redevelop in the northern Gulf on Sun AM (3/18) at 45 kt from the northwest producing a tiny area of 26 ft seas at 51N 142W. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
More details to follow...
Upwelling Phase of Kelvin Wave Cycle Has Peaked
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018, suggesting La Nina was fading.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Saturday (3/11) 5 day average winds were from the east over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific but weaker over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral to light easterly over the equatorial Pacific but weak strong westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/11) Moderate east anomalies were from 170E and points east of there but modest westerly winds were over the bulk of the Central and West KWGA. This pattern is to hold through the end of the week long model run (3/18) with solid east anomalies from 170E and points east of there but with west anomalies fading to the modest category starting 3/13 west of there and holding then rebuilding to the moderate category towards the end of the model run starting 3/16. This continues to look like a signal of the eastward shift of the low pressure bias zone, a very good sign.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (3/10) The Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was moderate plus in strength and filling the KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive Phase slowly easing east and weakening and gone 5 days out with a weak Active/Wet Phase of the MJO building into the and filling the West Pacific at the end of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/11) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO weak in strength over the East Indian Ocean. It is to fade while tracking east to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and almost indiscernible. The GEFS model data is not updating.
40 day Upper Level Model: (3/11) This model depicts the Inactive/Dry Phase over Central America and almost out of the picture tracking east. A weak Active/Wet pattern was over the Central and West Pacific. The weak Active Phase is to track east over the West Pacific moving and into the East Pacific and Central America through 3/30. A new Inactive Phase is to be developing moderately in the far West Pacific on 4/10 migrating to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 4/20. This model runs about 1-2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (3/11) This model depicts the Inactive Phase almost gone over the KWGA with weak east anomalies mainly from the dateline and points east of there with weak west anomalies from 170E and point west of there with this west wind pattern slow building in coverage and holding position through 3/25. East anomalies are to be gone over the East Pacific starting 3/20. Beyond a weak Active Phase is to follow in the West Pacific starting 3/26 with a more solid west anomaly pattern developing and filling the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. The Active Phase is to dissipate 4/15 with no coherent MJO signal beyond through the end of the model run (6/8) but with weak west anomalies holding and no sign of east anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the western half of the KWGA at 165E and is to push east steadily from here forward reaching the dateline 4/14 with a high pressure bias over the East KWGA at 175E and is to steadily moving east and out of the KWGA on 4/7. Basically the La Nina bias is to be gone in 3-4 weeks. But no significant oceanic change is expected until 3 months after the change has taken place in the atmosphere.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/11) The overview pattern depicts that warm water is sequestered to the west but building east with cooler water steadily loosing control of the East Pacific. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29-30 degs at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady today at 178E and steep (meaning there is a headwind of cooler water pushing into it from the east - La Nina). The 24 deg isotherm was shallow but has made significant eastward progress migrating across the entire Pacific to Ecuador and 25 meters deep or more the whole way east and 75 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific negative temperatures at -1 degs were in two pockets at 150W down 25 meters with a smaller pocket at -1.0 degs at 100W 75 metes deep. Overall cooler waters are steadily loosing coverage and density. Warm anomalies were building in the West at +3.5 degs at 180W down 150 meters and appear to be building east with the dividing line between that and cool waters moving east to 125W indicative of a large Kelvin Wave pushing east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 depicts warm water in the west at +4.5 degs reaching east to 135W. Cool water at -1.5 degs was only holding in one pocket in the East Pacific near 140W and has significantly lost density, intensity and depth. Those cool anomalies continue erupting to the surface limited now from 105W to 165W. The cool pool appears to be slowly discharging to the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Neutral anomalies were over the balance of the equatorial East Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 cms south of the equator south of 3S in the East Pacific out to 150W and getting progressively diffuse.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (3/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a generic and diffuse cool pocket was in the deep Southeast Pacific centered at 100W 20S. Warm anomalies are rebuilding some off the coast of Chile and Peru up to Ecuador while an Inactive/Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle along the immediate coast of Peru and another off Columbia. Warm anomalies are holding along the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 115W. Cool pockets were generally weak and diffuse west of there to 160W and with a continuing smaller footprint.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/10): A generally neutral trend was off Chile. A weak cooling trend was off Peru up to Ecuador advecting west along the equator over the Galapagos and out to 120W. The upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle was having a cooling effect.
Hi-res Overview: (3/10) A significant erosion of La Nina is underway with warming building in the entire Nino1.2 region even through the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle is negating some of that. A broad weak cool pocket is still present well off Chile (10S 110W) and Peru with the La Nina core on the equator from 100W to the dateline peaking at 135W, starting to look like a Modoki La Nina than anything solid (meaning the core of La Nina is advecting west). Cool water at depth is still erupting to the surface with the breach point south of Hawaii. Overall the cooling pattern is steadily loosing density and drifting west. It appears La Nina is in steady decline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/11) Today's temps were steady at -1.393 degs after having risen to +0.898 degrees on 2/28. Overall it looks like the trend is stabilizing after heading downward driven by the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Temps in this area bottomed out on 12/23 at -2.1 degs, a third near peak negative reading. The lowest point so far in this La Nina was -2.248 degs reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/11) Today temps were steady at -0.880. A dramatic rise occurred 1/12-1/28 reaching up to -0.600 deg range. Since then temps have eased off some. Previously a peak low was observed on 1/10-1/12 to -1.577. On (12/7) temps hit a previous record low at -1.219, just below the previous coldest peak so far this La Nina on 11/22 at -1.156. And the third previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests perhaps a rising pattern. La Nina is in control, but it's taking a hit.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (3/11) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov and have been slowly rebounding since, up to -0.55 in early Feb and holding at that level today. The model indicates temps holding at -0.5 into early May, then falling slowly to -0.95 in early Aug, then starting to rise into the Fall to -0.6 degs in Oct. This suggests the peak of this years La Nina has occurred but is to redevelop in the Summer before fading some in the Fall. This model is the outlier with others suggesting La Nina is to die this Spring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Feb Plume depicts temps at -0.5 degs and are to slowly rise, to +0.0 in May and +0.3 in August and +0.5 in October. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (3/11): The daily index was negative today at -0.96. The 30 day average was rising at 2.21 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was still affecting the index. The 90 day average was rising at -0.08 suggesting La Nina is dead.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (3/11) This index is falling today at -0.80, down from -0.33 in late Feb, up from -1.11 on 1/29. The trend suggests La Nina is fading but not gone. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative through Jan 2018. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.12, Feb = +0.05, March = +0.14, April=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan=+0.29, Feb=-0.10. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table