Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 272 degrees. Water temp 77.3 (Barbers Pt), 77.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 12.9 secs from 316 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 12.8 secs from 253 degrees. Wind southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs, 53.4 (Harvest 071), 59.0 (Topanga 103), 58.8 (Long Beach 215), 59.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.0 (Del Mar 153), 59.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 12.7 secs from 278 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 4.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.6 secs from 245 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.6 secs from 256 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 257 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.1 ft @ 12.7 secs from 277 degrees. Water temperature 59.5 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 8.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 6.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 276 degrees. Wind northeast 12-18 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NE 3-4 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and SE 16 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), 53.6 (SF Bar 142), 54.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.1 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.2 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (2/27) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out breaking mostly on the inner bar and clean with brisk southeast winds. Protected breaks were head high and real lined up and a bit closed out and clean with brisk offshore winds. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up with decent form but soft and clean suffering from too much tide. In Ventura County waves were chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft and a bit sectioned. Central Orange County had sets estimated at chest to shoulder high and lined up coming from the north with decent form and clean but again buried in fog. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets estimated at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft and also buried in fog. North San Diego had sets at waist to stomach high and lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with good form and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and weakly lined up and nearly chopped from south wind. The East Shore was getting east windswell at knee to thigh high and clean with light south winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (2/27) California was poised to get new swell from a gale that developed in the Gulf Mon-Tues (2/25) with 24 ft seas building to 30 ft aimed east then fading Wed (2/26) off Oregon with seas dropping from 26 ft. Hawaii was getting the backside of the same swell. The last gale in the series developed on the dateline Tues (2/25) tracking east-northeast with seas building to 46 ft late Wed (2/26) before fading Thurs (2/27) in the Northwest Gulf with seas dropping from 45 ft. After that a weaker system is to develop while falling southeast from Kuril Islands over the dateline Thurs-Sat (3/1) with up to 28 ft seas then dissipating. Perhaps another broader gale is to develop over the North Dateline region Tues (3/4) moving over the dateline Wed (3/5) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east then fading in the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (3/6).

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (2/27) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line with winds 170-190 kts reaching east to a point 800 nmiles west of San Francisco with two generalized troughs developing, one over the Gulf and then other off the Kuril Islands both offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to deepen while pushing east to the Northeastern Gulf on Fri (2/28) offering good support for gale formation while the other trough eases east to the dateline on Sat (3/1) then fades in the Gulf on Sun (3/2). Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (3/2) the jet is to start loosing some energy with winds down to 140-150 kts in two pockets and showing signs of starting to split. By late Tues (3/4) the jet is to be split over it's width but with the north and south stream tracking east parallel each other with the northern branch running east on the 45N latitude line forming a trough off the Kuril Islands moving to the dateline and being fed by a small pocket of 170 kts winds offering decent support for gale formation. That trough is to push east reaching the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (3/6) still supporting gale formation. and in the east the jet is to consolidate just off California with a backdoor trough pushing southeast down the US West Coast. It kinda looks like the expected Modoki La Nina style jetstream is finally going to develop supporting more backdoor troughs for the future possibly bringing weather into California. Will believe it when it happens.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (2/27) swell was poised for California from a gale that developed over the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below) and another poised for Hawaii and California beyond from a storm over the West Gulf (see West Gulf Storm below).

West Gulf Gale
On Sun PM (2/23) a new gale was developing on the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 34.5N 174.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (2/24) the gale was tracking east fast with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 26 ft at 37.25N 173.25W aimed east. Fetch built in the evening at 35-40 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 24 ft at 38N 160.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (2/25) the gale was building in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 39.5N 154.5W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gale lifted northeast with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 38.25N 148.25W aimed east. Fetch lifted hard northeast on Wed AM (2/28) off Washington with northwest winds 30 kts and seas fading from 25 ft at 42.5N 146W aimed east and southeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Oahu: Swell fading Thurs (2/27) from 3.6 ft @ 12 secs early 94.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival just after sunset on Thurs (2/27) building to 7.3 ft @ 16 secs (11.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (2/28) from 7.3 ft @ 14 secs (10.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (3/1) fading from 5.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.0 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 280 degrees

West Gulf Storm
On Tues (2/25) a new gale developed just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 45 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 35N 168E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale lifted east-northeast with winds building to 45 kts over a decent sized area and seas 27 ft at 34.75N 178E aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (2/26) the gale built to storm status with west-northwest winds 50-55 kts and seas building from 33 ft at 37N 171.5W aimed east and southeast. In the evening west winds were lifting east-northeast at 50 kts and seas 43 ft at 40N 165W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/27) the storm was fading to gale status now in the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 46 ft at 43N 158W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40 kts from the west and seas fading from 39 ft at 46N 152.25W aimed east. Fri AM (2/28) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 33 ft at 48.5N 149W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (2/27) evening building on Fri (2/28) sunrise to 7.1 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft). Swell fading some in the afternoon. On Sat (3/1) swell to be fading from 5.9 ft @ 13 secs (7.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (3/2) fading from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 moving to 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/1) building to 7.8 ft @ 18 secs later (14.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (3/2) at 7.7 ft @ 16 secs (12.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (3/3) from 7.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (10 ft) with local windswell intermixed. Swell dissipates Tues (3/4) from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 288-289 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sat (3/1) building to 1.9 ft @ 20 secs (3.5 ft). Swell peaking Sun (3/2) at 3.6 ft @ 16-17 secs holding through the day (6.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (3/3) from 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (3/4) fading from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (2/28) north to northeast winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest at 5 kts for the rest of North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds be 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 5+ kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (3/1) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon low pressure tries to set up off North CA with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for North CA in the evening.
Sun AM (3/2) low pressure moves over CA and high pressure well off the coast producing northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure takes control with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA through the day and evening and down to Los Angles if not further south in the afternoon. Snow for higher elevation of the Sierra mid-AM through the evening.
Mon AM (3/3) high pressure is in control with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the pressure pattern starts fading with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North And Central CA in the morning. Light snow for higher elevation of the Sierra through the day.
Tues AM (3/4) a weak pressure pattern takes hold with northwest winds 5 kts for North and Central CA early. in the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (3/5) weak low pressure is to be developing well off Central CA with northeast winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon east winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 1-5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/6) low pressure hold stationary well off Central CA with northeast winds 10 kts for North CA and calm winds for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Light rain possible for Central CA in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 10, 11, 15, and 17 inches with some Sun-Mon 3/3 and a little on Fri (3/7).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,500 ft through 3/1 falling to 4,500 ft 3/2 holding then rising to 6,500 ft 3/4 and then down to 5,000 ft 3/6 rising to 6,500 ft 3/7.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Previously a gale developed off New Zealand (see below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed Mon AM (2/24) well to the north and due east of New Zealand with south winds 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 46S 164W aimed north-northeast. South winds were building in coverage in the evening at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 47S 155W aimed northeast. Tues AM (2/25) south winds were 45-50 kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 147.5W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch tracked east at 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 50.5S 139.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (2/26) southwest fetch faded from 35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 52S 130.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. Perhaps a semi legit early season southern hemi swell could result.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/5) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Thurs (3/6) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (3/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (3/8) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing just off the Kuril Islands falling southeast Thurs-Sat (3/1) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft Fri AM (2/28) at 39N 166E aimed southeast, Fri PM with seas 28 ft at 37N 171E aimed southeast at Hawaii, Sat AM (3/1) with seas 29 ft at 36.5N 177E aimed southeast then fading in the evening with 23 ft seas at 35N 177W aimed southeast. Small swell possibly to result for Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Beyond a broad system is forecast developing west of the North Dateline region on Tues (3/4) with 30-35 kts west winds filling the Northwest Pacific with seas building from 25-26 ft centered at 43N 165E aimed east. In the evening west winds to build to 40-45 kts approaching the North Dateline with seas 30 ft at 47.5N 171E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/5) west winds to be 40 kts nearly at the North Dateline region with 34 ft seas at 46.25N 175.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be falling southeast while fading from 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 44N 179.75W aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (3/6) from 35 kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 28 ft at 42.75N 171W aimed east. Fetch to push east in the evening at 30-35 kts still over a solid area with seas 25 ft at 42.5N 163.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina Fading
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/26) 5 day average winds were calm over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/27) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA into 3/4 then building to near strong status and holding through the end of the model run 3/15. The West winds anomaly pattern over the Maritime continent that has dominated all this Winter is gone and is to not return. We are now going to start being influenced by a pure Modoki La Nina pattern (i.e. Backdoor fronts over California).

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/26) Currently a weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on days 5 through 15 but retrograding west some. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive MJO buidling to moderate strength and easing east filling the KWGA days 5-15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/27) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over Africa. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with it at modest status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/27) This model depicts a weak Active Phase (wet air) mostly over the KWGA holding position through 3/14 then slowly weakening while moving east. A neutral air pattern is to follow through then end of the model run on 4/8.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/26) Today Active Phase (contours) were east of the KWGA with weak to moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA. Inactive Phase contours are to move into the West KWGA 3/11 filling the KWGA while tracking east through 3/24 with moderate to near strong east anomalies filling the KWGA 3/5 through the end of the model run on 3/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/27) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Active Phase all but gone over the KWGA and the Inactive Phase developing in the West KWGA. East anomalies to build to moderate status 2/27 holding through 3/31. Then the Active Phase is to push into the KWGA 3/15 holding through 5/12 with west anomalies forecast moving from the entrance to the West Pacific 3/18 to filling the Pacific 4/7 and beyond signaling the end of La Nina. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO is forecast 4/17 through the end of the model run on 5/27 but with west anomalies fully in control of the Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28/24) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/26 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias developed over the dateline 11/16/24 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/8 and the second 5/1. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 5/15. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal. This is not as hoped for but not horrible. The CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was stationary at 172E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the rest of the equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket cooler anomalies at -3 degs present down 100 meters at 125W and negative anomalies between 165W to 95W filling the Central Pacific thermocline but markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/22 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 165W east to 80W at mostly -1.0 to -2.0 degs with one tiny pocket at -5.0 degs below normal centered at 110W. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast in the east and west. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/22) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 178W with -15 cms in one pocket at 155W and losing coverage. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/2) the cool pool was fading in intensity while holding in coverage from just east of the dateline 9165W) to just off Ecuador but only at -0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage reaching east to 175W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/26) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the Central equatorial Pacific between 140W to 160E. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/26): Temps were warming solidly over the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and then neutral temps west of there to the dateline. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/27) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising slightly at +0.790 and started peaking 2/15 at +0.573. This was part of a long warming pattern that started from -0.962 (1/28). Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/27) Today's temps were stead at -0.588 and have been holding there since 2/19. previously temps start rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 weeks of 2/12 and 2/19 and rising. Previously temps were -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (2/27) - Temps to rise to -0.20 in March fading in April to -0.35, rising to -0.2 in July and +0.30 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/27/25) the Daily Index was positive at +1.92 and positive the last 6 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling at +8.46 and has been generally falling the last 14 days, through still well in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling some at +6.39 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.