Sunday, February 20, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 306 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 252 degrees. Wind northeast at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 58.3 degs, 58.8 (Topanga 103), 59.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.4 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 16.8 secs from 292 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 267 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 242 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 273 degrees. Water temp 60.3 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 15.7 secs from 289 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-17 kts. Water temp 52.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (46026), 54.0 (SF Bar 142), and NA (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (2/20) North and Central CA had set waves at head high on the sets and lined up with decent form but crumbled and lumpy from modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were chest to head high and reasonably clean and lined up but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was shoulder high on the bigger sets and clean and lined up but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up and clean but weak and a little closed out. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and clean and soft but lined up if not closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets in the thigh high range and clean and lined up but with no real form. North San Diego was thigh high on the sets and clean and lined up but very weak. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at chest high or so and lined up but nearly chopped from northeast wind. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was shoulder high and warbled if not lightly chopped from north-northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (2/20) swell from a tiny gale that developed over the North Dateline Region on Tues-Wed (2/16) producing 34 ft seas aimed east was hitting Hawaii and poised for North California. Another tiny system was developing over the North Dateline region on Sun (2/20) expected to produce 25 ft seas aimed briefly east. Then a more interesting and broader system is forecast just off the Kuril Islands on Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 42 ft seas aimed east but dissipating before reaching the dateline. But after that virtually nothing is forecast to develop. It appears the center of the storm pattern is shifting west and weakening, for the moment.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (2/20) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 36N latitude line at 210 kts then weakening half way to the dateline with a small tight trough developing in residual 130 kts winds on the dateline before splitting just east of there at 170W and pushing north up into the Bering Sea. There was limited support for gale development in the dateline trough. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to quickly dissipate on Mon (2/21) offering nothing while stronger winds continue building over and off Japan at 220 kts reaching to the dateline and then pushing east from there into Wed (2/23) reaching a point north of Hawaii with winds in the core of the jet still at 210 kts. Though no troughs are forecast to develop, winds speeds alone should suffice to support gale development. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to hold consolidated pushing east off Japan and over the dateline to 145W or 1100 nmiles west of San Francisco on Sat (2/25), the further east this entire winter season. But still no trough is forecast. Wind energy is to slowly start fading after that but with still 170 kts winds off Japan on Mon (2/28) and the jet consolidated pushing to 140W and poised to be pushing onshore over Oregon, tantalizingly close to California with something that looks like a trough developing north of Hawaii. Maybe the first real sense of winter is to set up over the North Pacific. And all this is likely fueled by the leading edge of the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the West Pacific. It's our last shot for the season.
On Sunday (2/20) swell from a gale that developed Over the North Dateline Region was still hitting Hawaii and poised for North CA (see Small North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another tiny and weak gale is forecast over the North Dateline region on Sun AM (2/20) producing a short lived fetch of 45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians with 24 ft seas at 46N 169.25W aimed east. In the evening residual west fetch at 30-35 kts is to be producing 23 ft seas at 52N 165W. This system is to be gone after that. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.
Of more interest is a broad gale forecast building over and just east of the Kuril Islands and North Japan on Sun PM (2/20) generating a fetch of 45-50 kt west winds with seas building from 28 ft at 39.75N 150E aimed east. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale is to start plodding east producing westerly winds at 45-50 kts over a broad area and seas building to 35 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. In the evening west winds to still be 45-50 kts over a solid area just west of North Japan and the South Kuril Islands with 41 ft seas at 40.5N 155.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds are to be 40-45 kts not even half way to the dateline with seas 41 ft at 41.25N 162.75E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40 kts over a large area aimed east with seas fading from 39 ft at 39N 166.25E aimed east. Fetch fading from 30-35 kts Wed AM (2/23) over a large area with seas fading from 34 ft at 39.25N 172.75E. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas 28 ft near at 37N 174.5W. Something to monitor.
Small North Dateline Gale
On Tues AM (2/15) a small gale gale started building over the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building while lifting north. In the evening the gale was developing over the North Dateline region generating 50-55 kt west winds and 32 ft seas at 43N 179.25E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/16) the gale was lifting northeast fast with 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 48N 176.25W. Secondary fetch at 35 kts southwest of the main fetch was producing 26 ft seas at 40N 172E aimed east. In the evening the primary system was gone and fetch in the secondary system was fading from 30 kts with 22 ft seas at 40N 178E aimed east. Small swell is possible mainly for Hawaii. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Combined swell holding on Sun (2/20) at 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell gone on Mon (2/21). Swell Direction: 315 moving to 330 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (2/20) building to 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5 ft) but buried in locally produced windswell. Swell Direction: 303 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Mon (2/21) high pressure builds in strong with northwest winds 25-30 kts for all of North and Central CA and 20 kts for Southern CA down to Huntington Beach mid-AM. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts solid for all of North and Central CA and building to 20 kts for all of Southern CA. Snow showers for Tahoe all day. Light rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.
- Tues (2/22) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts solid for North, Central CA early building to 25 kts in the afternoon for North CA and holding at 20 kts for Central CA and 20 kts for Southern CA starting mid-AM. Light rain for North and Central CA early moving south to only Central CA in the afternoon with showers for Southern CA. Snow for the Tahoe area early building south over the entire Sierra later.
- Wed (2/23) northwest winds to be 25 kts early for all of North and Central CA and 20-25 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon winds to drop to 20 kts for North and Central CA but hold at 20-25 kts for Southern CA. Light rain for Central CA early mostly focused over all of Southern CA. Snow showers for the Southern Sierra early clearing mid-day.
- Thurs (2/24) north to northwest winds to be 15 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts for the remainder of North and Central CA early. Light winds for Southern CA. In the afternoon North and Central CA to have north to northwest winds at 10 kts. No precip forecast.
- Fri (2/25) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North and Central CA holding in the afternoon. A front is to be pushing south from off the Pacific Northwest with high pressure significantly pushed south.
- Sat (2/26)light winds are forecast early for North and Central CA holding all day. The front is to stall and weaken over South Oregon.
- Sun (2/27) south winds are forecast art 15 kts for Cape Mendocino with light winds south of there. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for North CA with northwest winds building to 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 15, 16, 9, and 3 inches all on 2/21-2/22 but most on 2/22. Possible more on 2/27.
Freezing level 7.500 ft today then slowly falling to 1,500 ft on 2/22-2/23 then building to 10.500 ft on 2/26 and holding.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models are teasing about a small gale developing on Sun AM (2/27) in the Central Gulf of Alaska with 45 kts west winds over a small area and 36 ft seas at 44.5N 155.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 45N 149.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La Nina territory for the moment. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/20) strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status in the core of the KWGA while expanding in coverage and strength through the end of the model run on 2/27.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/19) A moderate to strong Inactive MJO was filling the KWGA. The statistical model suggests the Inactive Phase is to slowly fade while tracking east just barely in the KWGA through day 10 of the model run then fading and pushing east of the KWGA on day 15 of the model run while the Active Phase builds into the core of the KWGA. The dynamic model projects the same thing but with the Inactive Phase holding strength and moving slower just barely over the dateline at the end of the model run with the Active Phase just barely starting to push into the KWGA then.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the Central-East Indian Ocean and is forecast slowly moving to the Maritime Continent while fading in strength to modest status over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests Active Phase holding over the Central Indian Ocean for the next 5 days at modest strength then pushing east to the Maritime Continent at day 15 of the model run at weak strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/19) A solid Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was depicted over the far East Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) moving east into the KWGA on 2/24. The Active Phase (wet air) is to track east filling the equatorial Pacific weakly on 3/6 then moving east and over Central America on 3/21. A new coherent Inactive Phase (dry air) is to build over the KWGA on 3/21 filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/31 and fairly strong.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/19) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was depicted filling the KWGA today with modest to moderate easterly anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA at strong status 2/20-3/5 as the Inactive Phase makes it's push east across the KWGA and then east of it on 3/3. The Active Phase is to start pushing in the the West KWGA on 2/23 filling the KWGA on 3/13 and holding to 3/17 before fading out. West anomalies are to only move west to 150E at moderate strength with east anomalies filling the eastern KWGA through the end of the model run while weakening to modest strength.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/20 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase was over the Eastern KWGA trying to hold on with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies slowly tracking east over the KWGA holding in strength through 3/5 on the dateline as the Inactive Phase pushes east and then fully moves east of the KWGA on 3/5 with east anomalies fading fast. The Active Phase of the MJO today was over the western KWGA but stalled, but is forecast to start pushing east 3/2 and filling it on 3/6 with west anomalies moving east from the Maritime Continent into the West KWGA on 2/23 then filling it on 3/8. The Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 4/17 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to develop 3/22 in the West KWGA tracking east through 5/19 at the end of the model run with neutral to weak west anomalies in control the whole time. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and forecast holding then pushing to and east of the dateline 3/30 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 140E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move decidedly east into the KWGA starting 3/14 quickly filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east to the dateline on 5/1 as a second contour builds starting 4/17. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a normal MJO alternating pattern is setting up. And the low pressure bias is to start building over the dateline region in later March signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the late Feb/early March timeframe meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 164E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 178E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady filling the entire subsurface equatorial Pacific. No cool anomalies were under the Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/12 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 100W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 95W while rapidly fading in coverage. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/12) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific except one small area of -5 cms anomalies between 95W to 80W and losing coverage quickly. Otherwise positive anomalies were steady, locked at the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to 100W. A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 102W. All this signals the demise of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/19) The latest images depict a broad generic stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. A previous core of cooler water near the Galapagos (the core of La Nina) is gone. The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile. But deep cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/19): Warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 130W. Warming was occurring off all of Chile and Peru too out to 130W. No cooling was indicated
Hi-res Overview: (2/19) The magnitude of the core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. But weaker residual cool waters were still covering a large area from Peru up to the equator and west to 140W and weaker to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/20) Today's temps were steady at -1.603 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/20) Today's temps were steady at -0.688 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022.
Forecast (2/18) - Temps are to fall to -1.25 degs in May only to rise some to -1.0 degs in the July and holding beyond. This is not believable. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.1 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (2/20) the daily index was positive at 5.00 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been towards positive readings. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was falling at +10.07 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was falling at +7.95 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table