Tuesday, February 14, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) (Out of Service - using Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 12.9 secs from 274 degrees. Water temp NA degs (Barbers Pt), 75.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 76.5 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 12.3 secs from 293 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 284 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temperature 57.4 degs, 57.0 (Topanga 103), 56.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 57.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.0 (Del Mar 153), 58.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 268 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 265 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 14.7 secs from 227 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 15.9 secs from 283 degrees. Water temperate was 57.7 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 15.7 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 11.9 ft @ 10.1 secs from 320 degrees. Wind northwest at 25-33 kts (46026). Water temp 50.0 (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.0 (San Francisco 46026), 51.8 (SF Bar 142), 53.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (2/14) North and Central CA had sets a couple of few overhead and junky and warble with whitecaps to the horizon. Protected breaks were 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and closed out and trashed with whitecaps. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and lined up with clean conditions but soft and mushed with intermixed warble but no wind. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean conditions and no wind but pretty warbled and junky. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and trashed by strong north winds and small whitecaps. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high and a warbled ness from brisk northwest wind. North San Diego had sets at waist high and warbled if not chopped from northwest wind and not very rideable. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at about head high and somewhat lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with intermixed warble. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and soft but real clean. The East Shore was getting solid east windswell at 2-3 ft overhead and chopped from strong northeasterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (2/14) Hawaii was getting locally generated northeast windswell with remnant energy from the second of three North Dateline gales intermixed. California was getting local northwest windswell with remnant swell from the first of those three North Dateline gales underneath too. The first gale in this series developed on the dateline Thurs (2/9) tracking northeast to the Northwestern Gulf on Fri (2/10) producing 40-42 ft seas aimed east and then faded fast in the Northern Gulf on Sat (2/11). The second in the series followed on the dateline tracking northeast to the Northern Gulf Fri-Mon (2/13) with up to 28 ft seas aimed east. Swell is poised for CA and HI. And the third was tracking over the North Dateline region Sun-Tues (2/14) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east. Another gale was developing off Kamchatka Tues-Wed (2/15) producing 43 ft seas aimed east. After that things get weird with no clear swell production forecast. Get what you can.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (2/14) the jetstream was consolidated pushing off Japan half way to the dateline running east on the 35N latitude line with winds 160 kts then splitting at 160E with a trough developing north of the split point just off the Kuril Islands offering some support for gale development with a second steep and nearly pinched trough in the northern branch of the jet over the far Northwestern Gulf offering very limited support for gale development. The northern branch of the jet was ridging up into coastal Alaska then pushing down the US West Coast moving inland over Central CA. Over the next 72 hours winds in the jet are to build at 180-190 kts pushing off Japan with the split point moving to the dateline if not further east on Fri (2/17) and a broad trough setting up off Kamchatka offering support for gale development. To the east a broad ridge is to be in control with the northern branch of the jet running along the Aleutians then falling into a tight steep trough tracking east and moving over North CA on Fri (2/17) likely producing mainly weather. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (2/18) the split in the jet is to hold at around 170W with the previous steep trough turning into a backdoor trough lingering off San Francisco Sat (2/18) falling south off Southern CA on Mon (2/20) and then falling down Baja through the end of the model run. In the west a broad trough is to persist near the split point falling south into Mon (2/20) offering some limited support for gale development before getting cut off on Tues (2/21). At that time winds to be 170 kts pushing off Japan reaching to the dateline then splitting at 170W. We need more energy in the jet.
On Tuesday (2/14) minimal swell from the second of 3 North Dateline Gales was fading in HI and swell from the first in that series was fading in North CA and mostly buried in windswell.
Over the next 72 hours swell from the second North Dateline Gale is to be arrive in California. And a third North Dateline Gale is to be tracking east over the North Dateline region with swell radiating southeast from it.
And starting Tues AM (2/14) a gale was developing just off Kamchatka producing 50 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 30 ft at 45N 163E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 50 kts off the North Kuril Islands with seas 30-40 ft over a tiny area near 47.5N 164E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/15) west winds to be 50 kts off the North Kuril Islands with seas building to 41 ft at 49.5N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be migrating east at 45 kts approaching the Aleutians with 38 ft seas at 50.5N 171.25E just south of the shadowed created by the Aleutians relative to the US West Coast. Secondary fetch is forecast developing over the North Dateline Thurs AM (2/18) at 40 kts from the southwest with seas 28 ft at 44.5N 175W aimed east. Fetch is to be lifting north in the evening at 35-40 kts from the west over a decent sized area with 26-28 ft seas at 49.25N 164W aimed east. Fetch and seas fading out from there moving in to the Bering Sea. Something to monitor.
North Dateline Gale 2
And a small gale started building right behind the previous gale tracking east-northeast over the dateline Fri AM (2/10) producing 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 37.5N 174E aimed east. In the evening winds held at 45 kts over a tiny area just east of the dateline with seas 32 ft at 39N 179W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/11) the gale lifted northeast over the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kt west winds over a moderate area and seas 28 ft at 40N 172W aimed east. Fetch lifted east-northeast in the evening at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 45N 162W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the Northeastern Gulf on Sun AM (2/12) at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 45.5N 152W aimed east. Fetch tracking northeast in the evening at 40+ kts in the far Northern Gulf with seas 22 ft at 50N 140W aimed east and mostly east of the NCal swell window (323 degs).
Oahu: Residuals fading Tues AM (2/14) from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues PM (2/14) well after dark building to 3.3 ft @ 16 secs (5.0 ft) Wed AM (2/15) but buried in much local northwest windswell. Swell Direction: 290 moving to 299 and degrees and then even further north to 307-315 degrees
North Dateline Gale 3
On Sun AM (2/12) a fetch of west winds started building on the dateline at 45 kts with seas building from 29 ft at 40.75N 170.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds built to 50 kts with seas building from 37 ft at 43N 179.5E aimed east. On Mon AM (2/13) 50 kt west winds were tracking east over the dateline and over a decent sized area with seas building to 39 ft at 47.25N 176W aimed east. In the evening west winds were 45-50 kts just east of the dateline with seas 39 ft at 48N 173.25W aimed east. Fetch was fading Tues AM (2/14) while drifting east over the Northwestern Gulf at 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 47.5N 167.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 47.5N 160W aimed east. Fetch fading out Wed AM (2/15) from 30 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 46N 153W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Expect sideband swell arrival on Thurs (2/16) building from 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues Fri (2/17) 1.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) but buried in local windswell. Swell Direction: 335 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/17) building to 4.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell continue Sat (2/18) fading from 5.0 ft @ 14 secs early (7.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (2/19) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed AM (2/15) northwest winds moderate at 20 kts for all of North and Central California. In the afternoon the moderating trend continues with north to northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Thurs AM (2/16) winds to be south 1-5 kts early for North CA and calm for Central CA. In the afternoon a local low is forecast developing off Cape Mendocino with south wind at 20 kts there and 10-15 kts for the remainder of North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Fri AM (2/17) low pressure is to be falling south off Central CA with southeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and east at 10 kts for the remainder of North CA and southeast 10 kts for Central CA. South winds 1-5 kts for Southern CA. No precip forecast.
- Sat AM (2/18) low pressure is to remain circulating off Pt Conception with north winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon with the low well off Southern CA. Winds north 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 5 kts for the rest of North CA and southeast 5 kts for Central CA. Winds south for Southern CA at 10 kts in the afternoon. Maybe some showers for Pt Conception along the coast in the late afternoon.
- Sun AM (2/19) north winds continue at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 10 kts south of there down into Central CA. South winds 15 kts for Southern CA early. In the afternoon high pressure arrives in North CA with northwest winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and north 5 kts south of there but perhaps northeast 5 kts for Central CA. East winds 5 kts for Southern CA. Low odds for showers for Southern CA through the day.
- Mon AM (2/20) north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino with light winds south of Pt Arena and northwest 5 kts for Central CA . Winds south 1-5 kts for Southern CA early. No change in the afternoon.
- Tues AM (2/21) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts from the Golden Gate southward. The wind machine starts in earnest in the afternoon with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 2,500 ft 2/14 then slowly rising in spurts to the base at 6,000 ft early on 2/17 and steadily but slowly building to 8,500 ft on 2/18 and holding there through 2/21, then falling to 1,000 ft beyond.
- - -
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water or radiating towards the coast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Kelvin Wave #2 Crossing Pacific - Warming SSTs Building off Ecuador
3rd Active Phase of the MJO Starting - NINO3.4 Reaches ENSO Neutral - La Nina to be Gone Atmospherically
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and held till mid-Nov, then started to retreat east. 1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a stronger one building now. And Westerly Winds are forecast getting fully established filling the KWGA if not the Pacific later in Feb '23. And Sea Surface Temperature are warming and are to be approaching neutral in the next few weeks,. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling. The outlook is turning slowly but steadily optimistic. The next 3 weeks are critical.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/13) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak easterly over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/14) East anomalies were weak to modest on the dateline but west anomalies were moderate or more pushing east to 150E today filling 50% of the KWGA. The 7 day forecast has east anomalies collapsing and all but gone by 2/17 with west anomalies in a pocket on the dateline from 2/15-2/20. And west anomalies to hold strong from 150E at the end of the model run on 2/21.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/13) A moderate Active MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates the Active MJO signal filling the KWGA through day 15 of the model run but with the Inactive Phase starting to move into the far West KWGA at the end of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase slowly fading and gone on day 15 with a dead neutral pattern setting up (no Inactive Phase).
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/14) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific moving east to the East Pacific 15 days out ranging from weak to moderate strength. The dynamic model indicates it moving squarely through the West Pacific 5 days out at modest status and then collapsing to weak status while moving over Africa 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/14) A modest Active signal (wet air) was filling the West KWGA today if not most of the Pacific. The forecast has the Active signal (wet air) tracking steadily east over the Pacific and pushing into Ecuador on 3/11. A modest Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving over the KWGA on 3/1 filling the equatorial Pacific before moving over the East Equatorial Pacific by the end of the model run on 3/26. A weak Active signal is to follow at that time over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/13) A solid Active Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA today with west anomalies over the West KWGA reaching east to 150E and fading east anomalies over the dateline. The Active Phase of the MJO is to continue traversing the KWGA through 2/28 with west anomalies filling the KWGA through 2/23 with occasional pockets reaching strong strength on 2/15 and 2/18. It is to push to a point south of California on 2/23-2/27 with west anomalies on the equator there. After that moderate west anomalies are to rebuild from 150E and points west of there by 3/5 filling 50% of the KWGA with weak east anomalies lingering on the dateline through the end of the model run on 3/13.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA mainly west of the dateline with west anomalies developing there while lingering remnants of the Inactive Phase and associated east anomalies fading over the dateline. The Active Phase of the MJO is to build over then entirety of the KWGA by 2/18 with west anomalies filling the KWGA then. West anomalies and the Active Phase are to traverse the KWGA through 3/20 and then continuing east pushing south of California on 2/24. After that a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to move over the KWGA starting 3/18 holding through the end of the model run on 5/14 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA and in control of the entire Pacific by 3/23 and holding for the foreseeable future. A major change is starting now. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The high pressure bias is to start moving east on 2/15 with the second contour collapsing/pushing east of the KWGA on 3/10 with the primary contour moving east of the KWGA by 3/26. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 135E today and is to start slowly pushing east on 2/15, with a hard push east starting 3/18 and on the dateline 4/17 and filling the KWGA at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next for months now. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is fading and will be gone by 2/15 with no return in sight.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was not present. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded to 170E and was stuck there. The 26 degree isotherm had backtracked from 157W to 162W but was steady now at 155W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing east into Ecuador and reasonably thick and solidifying. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket with the leading edge at 132W and connected solidly to warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave off Ecuador. No negative anomalies of interest were present. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/7 indicates a huge very warm ball of 5+ degs anomalies stretching from the far West Pacific and reaching east upwards to 122W. Remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were lingering in a pocket lifting upwards towards the surface in the far East equatorial Pacific. A cool pocket was centered at 115W down 70m (the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle). The cool upwelling event that has been in play since July has been undercut and is fading. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/7) Sea heights were rising at +5 cms or greater over the entire West Equatorial Pacific reaching east to 140W. They were neutral over the rest of the East Equatorial Pacific with pockets of positive anomalies at +5 cms strung east across the neutral space into Ecuador. No negative anomalies remain over the equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies have retreated to the East Equatorial Pacific between 87W to Ecuador. And a previous pool of weak cool waters is collapsing between 105W to 118W. Warm waters continue building in intensity and coverage in the West at the same time reaching east to 127W. Kelvin Wave #2 is pushing east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/13) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of barely cool water extending west from well off Peru (100W) to the dateline mainly south of the equator in the East and reaching south to 19S near Tahiti then centered on the equator in the west. A building pool of warming water is present along the equator from Ecuador west to 130W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). And warmer than normal temps were present along the coasts of Chile and Peru and over all of the deep South Pacific. Overall this indicates the collapse of La Nina was underway.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/13): A broad pool of warming water was locked well off the coasts of Peru, Chile and strong along Ecuador and west to 140W. No cooling temps were indicated. A warming trend is well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (2/13) Warming waters are filling the east Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador.Cool waters were on the equator from about 120W to 160E. And those were losing intensity and coverage. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. La Nina remains in control over the West Equatorial Pacific for the moment but the density and intensity of the cooling is steadily fading while warming water is building around it's edges and migrating in from the East.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were steady at +0.843 since 2/7. They previously had been rising since 11/13. Temps previously were up to -0.695 on 12/22 after rising to -0.750 on 12/18, and that after rising from -1.267 in early Dec and then modestly in the -1.5 degs range late Oct and all Nov. Previously temps were in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/14) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.920. But this is nonsense. Other data from NOAA indicates temp anomalies were at -0.5 degs (see CFSv2 Data below). Temps fell hard to -1.187 on 1/7 but otherwise have been holding around -1.0 degree since 11/3 and up to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22. In general temps have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs mid-Feb.
Forecast (2/14) - Temps are starting to rise dramatically having moved above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/12. They are to move to neutral (0.0 degs) early-April and up to +1.30 degs in Oct and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are to hit neutral (0.0 degs) early-April and rising from there forward to +0.75 degs in July and +1.00 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are -0.492 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.229 degs in Feb and above the La Nina Threshold and -0.031 in March rising to +0.736 in July and +0.753 in Sept. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/14) the Daily Index was falling at +15.23 after reaching +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the last 22 days, neutral 5 days before that, but above +10 the previous 13 days and then generally below +10.0 before that (from 11/5-11/27). It was negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising to +13.32 (lagging indicator driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO) after falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +14.20 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest one last Inactive Phase occurring now is to drive the index up.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.
- - -
NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table