BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/11) in North and Central CA waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up but pretty warbled and junky form moderate northwest winds. Protected breaks were waist to near chest high and lined up but soft and heavily textured if not somewhat warbled from northwest winds. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and mushed but clean but with some local warble in the water. In Ventura County surf was thigh high and weakly lined up and clean but with a fair amount of warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and soft with some warbled in the water occasionally breaking on the outer bar. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to knee high and textured from northwest winds and not rideable. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up but pretty warbled and mushed. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 2 ft overhead and super lined up with decent form and clean early. The South Shore had some knee to thigh high sets and clean but real weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and clean with no trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/11) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell mixed with background swell originating from the second of three small gales previously on the dateline. Hawaii was getting the middle of the third dateline swell. The second in a series of small gales developed on the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/7) producing 29 ft seas aimed east targeting mainly Hawaii. And a third developed off Japan tracking east to the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/7) producing a tiny area of 33 ft seas targeting mainly Hawaii again. Then on Sun (2/9) a far broader gale developed west of the dateline with seas building to 28-30 ft aimed east offering swell for the Islands and background energy for the US mainland. A local gale is forecast for the Central Gulf tracking east on Wed-Thurs (2/13) producing 32 ft seas providing hope for California. And another gale is forecast developing over the dateline Thurs-Fri (2/14) tracking east with with 28 ft seas targeting Hawaii peaking early Sat (2/15) with 31 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. After that the North Pacific is to take a pause.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/11) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 32N latitude line with winds to 190 kts reaching a point 700 nmiles north of Hawaii with a developing trough just west of the dateline supporting gale formation. And east of there the jet was still weakly consolidated then falling southeast along the US West Coast starting to form a new trough there being fed by 140 kts winds potentially providing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to hold while extending east then whole way across the Pacific with winds 170-180 kts mainly off Japan with the pre-existing trough continuing to track east while deepening supporting gale formation reaching the Central Gulf on Fri (2/14). The local trough over California is to move inland on Wed (2/12) with a new stronger trough developing just off San Francisco on Thurs (2/13) being fed by 180 kts winds then impacting the coast on Fri (2/14). Weather seems likely there. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (2/15) the Central Gulf trough is to fade out offering nothing. The local trough off CA is to be inland. Back to the west the jet is to still be running east off Japan with winds 160-170 kts pushing over the dateline to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii then splitting weakly east of there with no troughs of interest forecast. This pattern to hold through the end of the model run on Tues (2/18).

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/11) small swell from the second of a series of small gales that developed over the dateline was fading in California and buried in locally generated windswell (see Second Small Dateline Gale below). And a third developed right behind with that swell already fading in Hawaii and bound for California (see Third Small Dateline Gale below). And a far broader system developed west of the dateline and is bound for Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Broad West Dateline Gale below).

Local CA Gale
A small gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf on Wed AM (2/12) with northwest winds building from 40 kts and seas 26 ft at 41.75N 148.25W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to build to 45 kts with the gale falling southeast towards North and Central CA and seas 32 ft at 40.5N 141.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/13) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts off North Ca down to San Francisco with 31 ft seas at 38N 136W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 30 kts just San Francisco with seas 25 ft at 37N 130W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate just off San Francisco Fri AM (2/14) with seas 18-20 ft impacting North and Central CA. Larger raw local swell is likely to result. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri AM (2/14) building to 13.5 ft @ 15 secs (20.0 ft) and pretty raw fading some in the afternoon. Swell dropping out Sat AM (2/15) from 7.0 ft @ 11 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri AM (2/14) building to 5.4 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (8.0 ft) and pretty jumbled holding through the afternoon. Swell dropping Sat AM (2/15) fading from 3.8 ft @ 13 secs early (5.0 ft) fading slowly through the day. Swell Direction: 289 moving to 298 degrees

On Wed PM (2/12) another small but solid gale is forecast building on the dateline with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 27.5N 179W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/13) the gale to lift northeast with northwest winds building in coverage at 35 kts with seas 22-24 ft at 33.5N 175W aimed southeast well at Hawaii. In the evening the gale builds in coverage with west to northwest winds at 35-40 kts in the far Western Gulf with seas 25 ft at 32N 169W aimed east and southeast targeting Hawaii directly. Fetch holds while pushing east Fri AM (2/14) at 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 37N 164W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to lift east-northeast some at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 38.5N 159.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/15) fetch is to be fading while tracking east over the Central Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 31 ft at 42.25N 154W aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening at 35 kts tracking east with seas 30 ft at 43.75N 149.5W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Second Small Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (2/6) another small gale developed on the dateline with 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 40N 178.5E aimed east. In the evening the gael tracked east with 40+ kts west winds and seas 29 ft at 39N 173W aimed east and southeast. On Fri AM (2/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts while lifting northeast with seas fading from 26 ft up at 44N 168W aimed east and northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

North CA: Swell fading Tues (2/11) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals Wed (2/12) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Third Small Dateline Gale
Another gael developed Thurs PM (2/6) well west of the dateline producing a tiny area of 45 kts northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 38.75N 163.75E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (2/7) northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 37N 170.5E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 23 ft at 37.5N 177E aimed southeast. The gael fading after that.

Oahu: Swell fading on Tues (2/11) from 3.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Low odds of background swell arriving on Wed (2/12) building to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/13) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees

Broad West Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (2/8) a new broader gale started to develop off South Japan producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 32N 152E aimed east. In the evening a broad fetch of west winds were building from Japan to the dateline at 35-40 kts from the west with seas 26-27 ft at 33N 170E and 20+ ft seas filling the West Pacific. On Sun AM (2/9) west winds were 35-40 kts filling the area from Japan over the dateline to 170W with seas 29 ft at 35.25N 164.75E but 20+ ft seas from Japan to the dateline aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30-35 kts positioned mainly west of the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 36.5N 170.75E but 20+ ft seas still filling the area from Japan to 170W. On Mon AM (2/10) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts between Japan and 170W with seas fading from 27 ft at 36.5N 177.5E. Residual fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts and seas fading from 22 ft at 35N 165E to 173W aimed east and southeast. Decent swell is possible.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival later on Tues (2/11) building to 6.1 ft @ 15 secs (9.0 ft). Swell rebuilding Wed (2/12) afternoon to 5.9 ft @ 16 secs (9.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/13) from 5.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (2/14) fading from 3.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft) then possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 305 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri PM (2/14) from 293 degrees but buried in far larger locally generated swell (see Local CA Gale below)

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 5,000 ft or less briefly rising to 6,500 ft early 2/12 falling to 5,000 ft later in the day and then up to 7,000 ft early on Thurs (2/13) before quickly falling to 5,300 ft and falling to 2,500 ft late on Fri (2/14). Freeze level building to 9,000 ft 2/15 falling to 7,000 ft 2/16 then up to 9,200 ft late on 2/18 and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs PM (2/13) with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 28 ft at 59.75S 167.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (2/14) fetch fading from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 56.25S 162W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas fading out after that. Something to monitor.

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 65.75S 142.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (1/29) southwest winds were 45 kts aimed well north and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 131W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 122.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (1/30) southwest winds were lifting north at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 57.5S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track northeast with 30 kts winds and moving out of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 52.5S 113.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade after that. Another possible southern hemi swell to result reaching up into Southern CA with luck.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (2/9) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles Mon AM (2/10) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no additional swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/10) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/11) Today modest east anomalies were filling the entire KWGA and weak west anomalies were dissolving over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates more of the same but with west anomalies encroaching into the dateline area from the east 2/12-2/22 reaching west to 165E, then gone at the end of the model run on 2/27 with east anomalies building to strong status over the far West KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 167E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and building and reasonably solid in depth. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of solidly cooler anomalies at -3 degs present down 100 meters between 160W to 110W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/7 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 170W east to 80W at up to -4.0 to -5.0 degs below normal with the coldest temps centered at 115W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was declining in the west and building in the east. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W in one finger. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/7) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175E with -10 cms from 105W to 175W and -15 cms building in pockets from 140-160W. It appears the cool pool is stable of perhaps fading some but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/7) the cool pool was fading in intensity while building in coverage from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/10) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 110W to 160E strongest from 150W to 160E. Warm anomalies were over the East and West Pacific. This continues to look like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/10): Temps were warming solidly over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru to Ecuador then pushing west to 110W and near neutral west of there but with pockets of warming intermixed. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/11) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising markedly at +0.171 after falling to -0.962 (1/28) after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/11) Today's temps were rising steadily at -0.962 after falling to -1.5 (1/25) after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.6 week of 2/5 and steady. Previously temps were -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (2/11/25) - Temps to hold at -0.75 in mid-Feb before rebounding to neutral at -0.4 in March and -0.25 in April 2025, neutral in July and +0.25 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the same time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/11/25) the Daily Index was positive at +5.04 and positive the last 27 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising hard at +12.61 and has been rising the entire last 30 days, in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +9.45 and building into La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table