BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, February 3, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/3) in North and Central CA surf was 3-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean with light offshore winds and lined up but with uneven form. Protected breaks were occasionally chest to shoulder high and lined up if not closed out and clean with light offshore wind early. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to maybe 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form but a little soft and with some lump in the water. In Ventura County waves were chest to head high and lined up with good form and clean with light offshore winds. Central Orange County had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean with calm wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up if not closed out and clean with a decent amount of power in them. North San Diego had sets at head high or so and lined up with good form and clean with no winds early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 12-15 ft and lined up but blown out by onshore wind. The South Shore had waves at waist high and lined up with good form and clean but with some warble in the ocean. The East Shore was getting building wrap around swell with waves head high and clean with light moderate northwest winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/3) California was getting fading swell from a broad system that developed off Japan Sun-Mon (1/26) with 24-26 ft seas building while tracking over the dateline Tues-Wed with 30-33 ft seas then fading in the Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/30) with 27 ft seas finally dying off North CA on Sat (1/31) with seas 22-23 ft. Hawaii was getting building swell from a broad system that developed in the Western Gulf plodding east Sun-Wed (1/4) producing mostly 26-27 ft seas aimed east and is forecast fading off North CA on Thurs (2/5) with seas dropping from 26 ft. Another is forecast developing west of the dateline Wed (2/4) with 33 ft seas aimed southeast then fading Thurs (2/5) while moving over the dateline with 26 ft seas aimed east. Secondary energy from it is to redevelop while tracking through the Gulf Fri-Sat (2/7) producing 21-22 ft seas aimed east at California. And another broad but ill formed system is to develop over the North Dateline region moving tot he Northwestern Gulf Mon-Wed (2/11) with 35 ft seas aimed east. A decent storm pattern is in control.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/3) the jetstream was consolidated pushing due east from Japan through the Central Gulf mostly on the 35N latitude line with winds 180-200 kts with a trough over the Central Gulf offering good support for gale development. At 135W or 900 nmiles west of Pt Conception the jet tracked northeast pushing into Central Canada. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to fade out on Wed (2/4) while the jet generally holds position tracking east on the 30N latitude line but winds fading to 150 kts on Thurs (2/5) with a generalize trough over the Western Gulf offering some support for gale formation moving east to the Central Gulf and becoming somewhat better defined. The split point of California is to ease east to 130W. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (2/7) winds are to start building strong off Japan at 220 kts but with the jet splitting some east of there over the dateline. The jet is to push hard east-northeast on Mon (2/9) almost reaching the Eastern Aleutians with winds still 180-190 kts with a trough off the Kuril Islands starting to support gale formation. And in the east the jet is to start falling south over North CA finally bringing weather there. By Tues (2/10) the main portion of the jet is to weaken still tracking northeast and poised to impact Alaska with a new trough building in the Northeastern Gulf falling southeast down the US West Coast possibly setting up more weather.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/3) swell was fading in California originating from a gale that developed while tracking over the dateline (see Long Lived Dateline-Gulf Gale below). Swell was building in Hawaii from a broad gale that developed over the Western Gulf tracking east (see New Broad Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a small gale that developed over the dateline is to be tracking into California (see Small Dateline Gale below).

New Broad Gulf Gale
On Sun AM (2/1) a new gale started circulating just west of the dateline producing 35 kts northwest winds and absorbing remnants of the previous Small Dateline Gale (below) with seas building from 21 ft at 40N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds built in coverage to near large status at 30-40 kts aimed southeast with seas building from 24 ft at 36.25N 175.5E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (2/2) the gale built more in coverage while falling southeast and 1,000 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 25 ft at 33.5N 179.25W aimed east-southeast. In the evening the gale eased east while building yet more in coverage with northwest winds 35 kts solid over the Western Gulf 350 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 25-26 ft at 315N 169.25W aimed east and southeast 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii. On Tues AM (2/3) west winds were holding coverage but fading in strength at 30-35 kts filling the Gulf with seas 26 ft at 31.5N 161.25W in a wall from 40N to 25N aimed east and southeast. In the evening fetch size is to be fading still producing 30-35 kts west winds with seas building to 29 ft at 31N 158W and 550 nmiles north of Hawaii aimed southeast with 20+ ft seas from 40N to 25N all aimed east (277 degs Southern CA). Wed AM (2/4) northwest winds are to be sweeping east while fading from 30-35 kts over a much smaller area with seas 29 ft at 30N 150W targeting Southern CA well (272 degs). In the evening fetch fades from 30-35 kts well off Central CA lifting northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 35N 141.5W or due west of Pt Conception (281 degs SCal). Thurs AM (2/5) residual fetch fades from 30 kts with seas 25 ft at 35N 137.75W aimed east. Fetch and seas fading after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/3) building to 12.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (17 ft) later. Swell holding Wed (2/4) at 9.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (14.0 ft) through the day. Swell fading Thurs (2/5) from 7.5 ft @ 13 secs early (9.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (2.6) fading from 4.6 ft @ 11-12 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (2/6) building to 9.7 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-AM (15.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (2/7) from 7.7 ft @ 14 secs early (10.5 ft). Dribbles Sun (2/8) fading from 5.6 ft @ 12 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 265 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (2/6) building to 4.2 ft @ 16 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading some through the day Sat (2/7) from 3.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (2/8) fading from 2.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 272-277 degrees (Hard to believe but it's looking real now)

Small Dateline Gale
A new tiny gale started developing Fri AM (1/30) west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building aimed east. In the evening the gale was approaching the dateline with west winds 45 kts with seas building from 27 ft over a small area at 38.5N 174.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/31) the gale was lifting east-northeast while moving over the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 40.5N 179.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to continue lifting east with west winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 41.25N 175.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (2/1) the gale stalled and faded with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 42.25N 169.25W aimed east. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (2/4) building to 4.2 ft @ 13-14 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs AM (2/5) at 6.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (8.5 ft) fading some through the day. Swell Direction: 270 degrees

Long Lived Dateline-Gulf Gale
A gale started winding up half way from Japan to the dateline Sun AM (1/25) with northwest winds building to 45 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds held at 40-45 kt west of the dateline with seas 23 ft at 42.5N 164E and 30N 160E aimed southeast and east. On Mon AM (1/26) the gale tracked east with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 22-23 ft at 44N 169E and 33N 159E aimed east. In the evening a broader more consolidate fetch started developing with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft much further south at 33N 165.75E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/27) the gale was falling southeast and get energized with northwest to west winds 45 kts over building area and seas 30 ft at 42.75N 164E aimed southeast and 25 ft seas at 34.5N 173E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading at 40 kts over an elongated area at 41N 167E to 176W with seas 32 ft at 40.75N 166.75E and a tiny area of 29 ft seas just east of it at 40.5N 178.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/28) west winds faded from 35 kts off to the west and 40 kts just east of the dateline with seas 29 ft at 39N 172E aimed east and 33 ft at 40N 171W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts in both fetch areas with seas 27 ft at 37.25N 173.25E aimed east and 25 ft at 40N 163W aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/29) only the west-most fetch remained producing west winds at 35 kts well northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 26 ft at 37.75N 179.5E aimed east (on the dateline). In the evening fetch continued tracking east in the Central Gulf from the west at 35 kts and seas 28 ft at 36.25N 165.25W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/30) the gale continued plodding east through the Central Gulf with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 35N 156.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with northwest winds 30+ kts and seas 24 ft at 35N 150W aimed east. On Sat AM (1/31) the gale was near stationary well off North CA with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft at 41.5N 148.5W aimed southeast. The gale was fading off the OR-CA border in the evening with 30 kts west winds and seas 25 ft at 42N 141.5W aimed southeast. The gale dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading Tues AM (2/3) from 5.3 ft @ 13 secs (7.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/4) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 271-277 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon PM (2/2) a gale developed southeast of New Zealand producing 34 ft seas aimed northeast at 54S 175W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (2/3) seas were 33 ft at 52.25S 166W aimed northeast. In the evening 29 ft seas are forecast at 52S 155.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (2/4) seas are to be fading from 27 ft at 50.75S 147W aimed northeast. In the evening 26 ft seas are to be tracking east at 49.75S 139W aimed east-northeast. Fetch gone area that. Possible small swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast and also Mexico, Central America down into South America.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (2/3) a small storm is forecast developing half way between Japan and the dateline producing 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 25 ft at 39.5N 165E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/4) the gale is to fall southeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds approaching the dateline with seas 337 ft at 36N 169.25E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to push to the dateline with west winds fading from 35 kts with seas 29-30 ft over a small area at 34N 177.75E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/5) the gale is to track east with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 35N 177W aimed east. In the evening fetch continues from the northwest at 30-35 kts over a small area over the Western Gulf with seas 22 ft at 36.75N 163.5W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (2/6) the gale is to reorganize slightly while lifting northeast some with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 21 ft at 37.5N 155W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds fade from 30-35 kts over the Central Gulf with seas 18-20 ft at 40N 150W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/7) west winds to be fading in the Gulf from 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 42.5N 152W aimed east. Fetch fading from there.

And on Mon PM (2/9) a broad gale is forecast developing over the Northern Dateline producing southwest winds at 45-50 kts and a core at 50 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 27-30 ft at 40N 180W aimed east. On Tues AM (2/10) west winds to be 45 kts solid in 2 fetch area over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 35 ft in both at 45N 168W and 51.5N 172W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be consolidating over the far East Aleutians at 40 kts from the west winds seas 35 ft at 53N 164W aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Collapsing As a 2nd Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) Pushes over the KWGA
Cool Waters Fading over NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December '25 suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific while a Kelvin Wave pushed warn subsurface waters east. In early January a strong Active MJO started producing a WWB in the far West Pacific and is likely producing a second Kelvin Wave, And Surface water temp in NINO3.4 were starting to fade. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific if not maybe a transition to a warmer pattern beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/2) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east on the dateline turning hard west over the Southern KWGA from 175E and points west of there. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong west filling the KWGA but mainly south of the equator. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/3) Today moderate west anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA reaching east to 175E with moderate east anomalies east of there. The forecast indicates moderate west anomalies holding over the KWGA through 2/4 then starting to retrograde west and gone 2/10 with east anomalies slowly build filling the entire KWGA beyond building to strong status on 2/17 holding through the end of the model run on 2/19. Previous hopes of a 3rd WWB are gone and it appears a La Nina like pattern is to try and rebuild, at least in the short time.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (2/3) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back steady at 165E, previously at 161E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east from 173E to 175E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 179W to 176W. The 24 degree isotherm was mostly at 125W but now with a shallow shelf 20 meters down the whole way to Ecuador with 25 degs temps starting to become embedded. Warm anomalies were +4 degrees in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east with neutral to +1 deg warm anomalies reaching east the whole way to Ecuador. No cooler water was present at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 reflects this strong change down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and warm anomalies pushing east breaking the oceans surface between 97W-120W and +3 degs anomalies building subsurface in the east. A small pocket of lingering cutoff cool anomalies were off Ecuador to 95W. Warm anomalies were filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were warming at 0 to +5 cms over nearly the entire equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies were also pushing east in the far West Pacific to 150W. -10 cms anomalies were embedded 5 degs north and south of the equator near 140W at -10 and -15 cms north and south of the equator respectively.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/28) indicates cool anomalies were all but gone limited off Ecuador from 80-84W. Warm anomalies were surging east to 95W (previously 158W then 150W then 125W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. Then starting December 1 warm anomalies and a Kelvin Wave started pushing east and are now effectively filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. We're just waiting for it's eruption at the surface.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/2) The latest images depict a weak cool pool in the equatorial Pacific collapsing between 100W to 170W. Previous embedded cooler pockets have mostly evaporated (again). This looks like La Nina is quickly losing control at the surface. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Cooler waters were between 175W to 100W. The warming trend is starting to show on this chart too but less pronounced.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/2): Temps were now mostly strong warming from Ecuador to 100W over a thin area but otherwise neutral over the entire equatorial Pacific (+/- 5 degrees N/S). A broad area of warming is occurring just 2 degrees south of the equator from Chile and Peru and Ecuador out to 115W. there is signs of upwelling directly along the coast of Peru now.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/3) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were hovering at -0.143 (+0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/3) Today's temps were up slightly at -0.873 and steady since 1/22, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were basically steady at -0.4 (week of 1/28). Previously temps were -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.56 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.92 OND, -0.86 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45.
Forecast (2/3) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward to technically neutral neutral (0.0) in late Feb and building significantly after that to +1.70 at the end of the model run (Oct). The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp rising to only +1.40. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then turning neutral in early Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.370, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to -0.161 in FMA and 0.235 in AMJ and 0.494 SON. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.082 FMA and +0.745 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.303 up from -0.299 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are at ENSO neutral Nina and moving to maybe weak El Nino in Sept.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (2/3) the Daily Index was rising at 24.06 but had been negative 1/22-1/27. It had been rising 1/10-1/21 but had been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was rising some at +9.60, at +5.04 a month ago.
The 90 day average was steady at +6.72 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +8.11 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in Jan at -1.19, rising at -1.01 Dec, -1.54 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.32 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table