Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 14.9 secs from 263 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 10.0 secs from 301 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.9 secs from 317 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.1 secs from 298 degrees. Wind east 8 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs, 59.9 (Harvest 071), 61.0 (Topanga 103), 60.8 (Long Beach 215), 61.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.5 (Del Mar 153), 62.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 287 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 285 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.0 secs from 257 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.5 secs from 241 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.5 secs from 253 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 271 degrees. Water temperature 63.1 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 4.3 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 12.6 secs from 289 degrees. Wind east 16-20 kts (San Francisco 46026), E 16-18 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NE 18 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp 55.4 (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 55.6 (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 57.6 (Monterey Bay 46092), 57.6 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (1/25) in North and Central CA surf was head high and lined up if not closed out and clean with brisk offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up and clean with light wind and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form. In Ventura County waves were waist high or so on the sets and lined up if not nearly closed out with with some fun sections and clean. Central Orange County had sets to chest high and lined up with good form but also sometimes closed out and clean with light offshore wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and mostly closed out and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up and super clean with decent form early. The South Shore was knee to maybe thigh high and clean and very soft if even breaking. The East Shore was getting knee high easterly windswell and clean with no wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (1/25) California was getting residual background swell from a small gale that developed northwest of Hawaii Tues-Wed (1/21) producing 25 ft seas falling southeast. A small system was developing in the Gulf Sat-Mon (1/26) with 27-30 ft seas aimed east targeting California well with secondary energy forecast to develop in the Central Gulf Tues-Wed (1/28) producing 28 ft seas aimed east while the gale tracks east into the Pacific Northwest. And a broader system is to develop off Japan Sun-Mon (1/26) producing 24 ft seas aimed east then getting better organized while tracking east Tues-Wed up to the dateline with 33 ft seas aimed east before fading while tracking through the Gulf on Thurs (1/29) with 24 ft seas aimed east. .Another smaller gale is forecast for the Western Gulf Sun (2/1) with 38 ft seas aimed east. A stronger and more focused pattern looks to be setting up finally!

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (1/25) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 180 kts reaching to the Western Gulf or a point north of Hawaii forming a trough about half way to the dateline offering support for gale development with a smaller trough on the leading edge if the jetstreams push in the Gulf also offering some degree of support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to push east consolidated to 138W or about 800 nmiles off Pt Conception with winds 170 kts with the dateline trough fading while moving to the dateline and losing support for gael formation and the leading edge trough pushing east while still supporting gael formation and moving into Washington on early Wed (1/28). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (1/29) the jet is to get energized with 180+ kts winds in it's core filling 60% of the North Pacific with a trough just moving off Japan and another in the Central Gulf both offering support for gale development. the split point is to be at 140W still with a ridge just barely over California. By Sun (2/1) winds are to build to 190-200 kts with the jet fully consolidated from Japan to 140W with a generic trough over the dateline offering great support for gale formation mainly due to the wind speeds. This is looking like a huge step in the right direction.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (1/25) small generic sideband swell was hitting California originating from a small local gale previously northwest of Hawaii and remnants of the same swell were fading in Hawaii and of no real interest.

Over the next 72 hours an improving pattern is to take shape with a gale forecast in the Gulf targeting California (see Gulf Gale below and another west of the dateline targeting Hawaii (see Dateline Gale below).

Gulf Gale
On Sat AM (1/24) a tiny gale developed in the Northwest Gulf producing west winds at 45 kts over a small area aimed east with seas building. In the evening the gale mostly held position with west winds 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 45.5N 170W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/25) the gale redeveloped some over the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kt northwest winds over a decent sized area and seas 24 ft over a small area at 45.25N 172.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to start falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 44.25N 170W aimed southeast. Monday AM (1/26) fetch is to fade while falling southeast at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 164.5W aimed southeast. The fetch is to hold in the evening at 35 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 28 ft at 40.75N 156W aimed southeast targeting CA well. Secondary fetch is to redevelop on Tues AM (1/27) at 40 kts over a small area with seas 27 ft at 43.5N 156W aimed southeast. In the evening 40 kt west winds are to be off North CA with seas 28 ft at 40.5N 145W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/28) the gale is to lift hard northeast and poised to impact British Columbia with seas 29 ft at 43.5N 135W or just off Oregon. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Dateline Gale
A gale was starting to wind up half way from Japan to the dateline Sun AM (1/25) with northwest winds building to 45 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds to hold at 40-45 kt west of the dateline with seas 23 ft at 42.5N 164E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (1/26) the gale is to track east with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 24 ft at 44N 169E aimed east. In the evening a broader more consolidate fetch is to start developing with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 24-25 ft much further south at 35N 167E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/27) the gale is to fall southeast and get energized with northwest to west winds 45-50 kts over building area and seas 31 ft at 42.75N 163.25E aimed southeast and 27 ft seas at 35N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading at 35-40 kts over an elongated area on 41N 166E to 174W with seas 31 ft at 40.5N 166.75E and 30 ft seas at 40N 178W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/28) west winds to fade from 30 kts off to the west and 40 kts just east of the dateline with seas 27-28 ft at 38N 177E aimed east and 29 ft at 38N 170W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 37N 180W aimed east and 28 ft at 43N 164W aimed east. on Thurs AM (1/29) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts well north of Hawaii with seas fading from 25 ft at 35.75N 167.25W aimed east. Fetch mostly gone after that. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (1/26) broad low pressure sets up well west of California with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and southeast winds 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds build at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and southeast 10 kts for the rest of North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA with low pressure edging closer to the coast. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (1/27) and front is to be poised off North CA with south winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 5 kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to move onshore over Cape Mendocino with south winds 20-25 kts there and south winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino late afternoon into the early evening.
Wed AM (1/28) a front is to continue pushing into the Pacific Northwest with south winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon another weaker front is to be off Cape Mendocino with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (1/29) the front hangs over Oregon with south winds 10 kts for most of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon the pattern moderates with south winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts mainly south of Monterey Bay. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/30) the front holds over Oregon and off North CA with south winds 10+ kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/31) weak high pressure tries to set up with the front gone and northwest winds 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (2/1) another front pushes into far outer waters of North CA with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon CA the front dissipates with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. No precip forecast.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level 7,000 ft Mon (1//26) rising to 8,500 ft Tues (1/27) rising to 10,500 ft Wed (1/28) nd more or less holding at 10,000 ft through the end of the model run (2/4). Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 0 inches and Mammoth: 0 inches.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (1/30) west winds are to start building at 40 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 27 ft over a small area at 39.75N 156.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (1/31) the gale is to lift northeast with 40 kt northwest winds well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 148.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to swing hard northeast with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 23 ft at 47N 143.5W aimed east.

On Sat PM (1/31) a new gale is to start building just east of the dateline with west winds 45 kts and seas 26 ft at 39N 174.5W aimed east.On Sun AM (2/1) the gale is to ease east with west winds 45 kts and seas 36 ft at 40.25N 169.25W aimed east. The gale is to track east while fading with 40-45 kts west winds 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 37 ft at 40.75N 162.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

La Nina Collapsing As a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) Pushes over the KWGA
Cool Waters Fading over NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December '25 suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific while a Kelvin Wave pushed warn subsurface waters east. In early January a strong Active MJO started producing a WWB in the far West Pacific and is likely producing a second Kelvin Wave, And Surface water temp in NINO3.4 were starting to fade. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific if not maybe a transition to a warmer pattern beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/24) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline and moderate east over the bulk of the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest west on the dateline and moderate east over the bulk of the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/25) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA reaching well east of the dateline. The forecast indicates moderate west anomalies holding over the KWGA through 1/27 delineating the fading tail end of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) filling the KWGA. After that west anomalies to generally hold at moderate status 1/28 filling most of the KWGA while slowly backtracking to 170E with east anomalies building to moderate status just east of the dateline 1/28 holding through the end of the model run on 2/10 but weakening to modest strength. But of more interest is the development of moderate west anomalies 2/2 centered at 150E building to strong status 2/6 holding position through the end of the model run. At this moment it looks like another WWB is possible. This should continue to dump energy into the jetstream fueling the storm track and pushing warm water to the east in the form of potentially a 3rd Kelvin Wave.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/21) Currently a solid Active MJO (wet air) was indicated centered over the dateline and filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts it sliding east on day 5 of the model run with a strong Inactive MJO building over the Maritime Continent and easing into the far west Pacific, filling the KWGA on day 10 and strong filling the KWGA on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates the Active Phase holding at moderate status over the KWGA on day 5, fading on day 10 and pulsing to moderate status over the dateline on day 15 of the model run with the Inactive Phase holding over the Indian Ocean.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/25) - The models depict the Active Phase was moderate over the West Atlantic. The statistic model has it moving fast east to the Central Indian Ocean split between very weak to strong. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase collapsing over the Atlantic to weak status 3 days out and holding there through the next 2 weeks.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/24) Today west anomalies were near strong status filling the KWGA reaching east over the dateline driven by the Active Phase of the MJO filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase pushing east reaching 175E with moderate to strong west anomalies filling the KWGA holding through 2/5. After that the Active Phase is to dissolve but with west anomalies holding at moderate strength backtracking from 175E on 2/7 to 150E at the end of the model run on 2/21 and hooding there. A possible Inactive MJO contour is to develop at 150E on 2/13 holding through the end of the model run on 2/21. Per this model a certified Westerly Wind Burst is still occurring and is to continue in some fashion for the foreseeable future.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/25) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA with west anomalies in control of the KWGA. looking forward the Active Phase and moderate west anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA through 2/12. West anomalies are to slowly fade while backtracking to 160E on 2/15 with a weak Inactive Phase suggested 2/6-2/22 but west anomalies holding filling most of the KWGA. Another Active Phase is to track east over the KWGA 2/23-2/14 with west anomalies holding at moderate status. A weak Inactive phase is forecast after that 3/8 through the end of the model run on 4/24 but with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status starting 2/19into 4/5. West anomalies are to build east pushing well over the dateline starting 3/15. And east anomalies are to start setting up over the Maritime Continent on 1/26 and building some and holding through the end of the model run. It seems like a possible pressure switch is to set up in the next 2-3 days with high pressure building over the Indian Ocean and lower pressure over the dateline driven by the current Active MJO. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific at 130E and is forecast holding at this retrograded position till 2/18 then starting to ease east and pushing hard east starting 2/26 reaching 145W at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on the dateline 4/12. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 155E today with 2 contours with the 2nd contour gone in one day (1/26) and the first contour tracking east starting now then hard east 2/24 and collapsing east reaching 120W at the end of the model run. Impressive.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (1/25) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back reaching east to 165E, previously at 161E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east from 173E to 174E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179W. The 24 degree isotherm was mostly at 125W but now shallow at 5 meters the whole way to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east the whole way to Ecuador. No cooler water was present at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 reflects this strong change down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and warm anomalies pushing east breaking the oceans surface at 97W. A small pocket of lingering and cutoff cool anomalies were lingering off Ecuador to 100W. Warm anomalies were filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral (+/- 5 cms) over the entire equatorial Pacific with a tiny pockets of positive anomalies at 90W and 110W. Warm anomalies were at 170W and points west of there. -10 cms anomalies were embedded 5 degs north and south of the equator near 135W at -15 cms north and south of the equator.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) indicates cool anomalies were dramatically losing coverage over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 90W (previously 148W). Warm anomalies were surging east to 98W (previously 158W then 150W then 125W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. But starting December 1 warm anomalies and a Kelvin Wave started pushing east and are now effectively filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/24) The latest images depict weak a cool pool in the equatorial Pacific and collapsing from 120W to 170W. Previous embedded cooler pockets have mostly evaporated (again). This looks like La Nina is quickly losing control at the surface. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Cooler waters were between 175w to Ecuador. The warming trend is starting to show on this chart too but far less pronounced.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/24): Temps were warming from Ecuador to 160E (previously 120W) but with a thin weak cooling band from the Galapagos to 120W. A broad area of warming was occurring south of the equator from Chile and Peru to 120W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising slightly again to -0.078 up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/22) Today's temps were steady at -0.932 steady at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at -0.7 (week of 1/14). Previously temps were -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.56 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.92 OND, -0.86 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75.
Forecast (1/25) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward to technically neutral (-0.5) late Jan and neutral (0.0) in early March and building significantly after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then turning neutral in early Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.370, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to -0.161 in FMA and 0.235 in AMJ and 0.494 SON. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.082 FMA and +0.745 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.303 up from -0.299 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are at ENSO neutral Nina and moving to maybe weak El Nino in Sept.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (1/25) the Daily Index was falling at -14.36 and has been negative since 1/22. It had been rising 1/10-1/21 but had been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was falling some at +8.25, at -2.55 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +7.17 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +7.91 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising at -1.01 Dec, -1.54 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.32 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.