Tuesday, January 25, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 12.9 secs from 303 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.6 ft @ 12.7 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 15.3 secs from 266 degrees. Wind northeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 57.9 degs, 58.3 (Topanga 103), 58.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 58.8 (Del Mar 153), 58.6 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.5 ft @ 15.8 secs from 290 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 16.7 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.3 secs from 257 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 16.2 secs from 274 degrees. Water temp 60.6 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.6 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 14.2 secs from 290 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 16-20 kts. Water temp NA (Pt Reyes 029), 53.8 (46026), 52.9 degs (SF Bar 142), and 54.9 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (1/25) North and Central CA had set waves at 3-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a little unorganized. Protected breaks were chest to head high and lined up and clean and soft and closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean but with some warble in the water. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 2-3 ft overhead and line dup and clean and peeling. Really good. Central Orange County had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and super lined up if not closed out and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but with some weird warble running through it. North San Diego had sets at head high or so and lined up and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting waves at 2-3 ft overhead or more and lined up and clean and peeling with good form but with a little northeast warble in it. The South Shore was knee to thigh high and clean but weak. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (1/25) Hawaii was getting fading swell from another smaller system that formed on the dateline pushing northeast Fri-Sat (1/22) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east. Swell is pushing towards CA. And one more system is to follow just west of the Northern Dateline region Tues-Wed (1/26) producing a tiny area of 35 ft seas aimed east but not making it east of the dateline. After that 3 more smaller and weaker generic systems are forecast for the North Dateline region but of no real interest.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (1/25) the jet was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line running east to about the dateline with winds 150 kts with a small trough developing just west of the dateline offering some support for gale development. But the jet split at 175E with the northern branch slightly separating while pushing east then fully lifting northeast starting at a point north of Hawaii lifting fully northeast into Central Canada offering nothing but a continuation of high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours energy levels in the jet are to rebuild to 180 kts over Japan late Wed (1/26) with the jet consolidating to a point just north of Hawaii and winds building to 200 kts by Fri (1/28) but with no clearly defined troughs resulting. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/29) winds to hold off Japan in the 180-190 kt range with the split point slowly backtracking to about the dateline offering some support for gale development west of there but with a large split pattern east of there, A backdoor trough is forecast falling down the Canadian and US West Coast on Tues (2/1) possibly opening the local weather door for California.
On Tuesday (1/25) swell from a storm previously over the dateline has produced swell still hitting California (see Dateline Storm below). Also a gale built on the dateline and has produced swell that is hitting Hawaii and posed for CA (see North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Tues AM (1/25) another tiny gale is to start building just west of the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 39.75N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening 50 kt northwest winds are to be just west of the dateline with 34 ft seas over a small area at 42N 170.25E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/26) the gale is to be lifting north while fading with 45 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with 31 ft seas at 43N 172E aimed east. This system is to be fading in the evening with 45 kts northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 44N 175E aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/27) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 47N 173E aimed southeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Very rough data suggest swell arrival on Sat (1/29) building to 4.2 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (1/30) from 3.8 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft) early. Residuals on Mon (1/31) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees
A gale gale developed Tues AM (1/18) between Japan and the dateline and stronger and broader than those before it with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening a more defined fetch of 35-45 kt west winds built with 26 ft seas at 34.75N 156.5E aimed east. Fetch pushed east on Wed AM (1/19) at 40-45 kts over a broadish area with seas 29 ft at 32.75N 166.5E aimed east. In the evening a solid fetch of 40-45 kt west winds were on the dateline with a tiny core to maybe 50 kts producing 26-31 ft seas over a broad area centered at 38.5N 179.25E aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/20) fetch was e holding position at 40-45 kts just east of the dateline with 36 ft seas at 38N 177.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push east at 40 kts with seas 37 ft at 37.75N 171W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/21) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a decent sized area 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 31 ft at 36.5N 163.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to dissipate with seas fading from 25 ft at 40N 157W aimed east. Something to monitor.
North CA: Residuals fading on Tues (1/25) from 5.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 286-288 degrees
Southern CA: Swell peaking out overnight. On Tues AM (1/25) swell fading from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Wed AM (1/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 291-293 degrees
North Dateline Gale
Another decent system developed Fri AM (1/21) west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds over a tiny area and seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 35.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds were lifting northeast with seas 31 ft over a small area at 38.25N 175E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/22) the gale was lifting northeast just east of the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 37 ft at 40.25N 177W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening with 35 kts west winds in the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 30 ft up at 42.75N 170W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate on Sun AM (1/23) with seas fading from 26 ft at 43N 161W. Small swell is radiating towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Oahu: Swell fading on Tues (1/25) from 4.2 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (1/26) fading from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival early Wed (1/26) at 5.0 ft @ 16 secs (8.0 ft) holding through the day. Residuals on Thurs (1/27) fading from 4.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-292 degrees
Southern CA: Limited energy possible Wed late afternoon (1/26) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals Thurs AM (1/27) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (1/26) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA all day.
- Thurs (1/27) light winds are forecast all day for North and Central CA.
- Fri (1/28) light winds are forecast early for North and Central CA turning south 5 kts for North CA later.
- Sat (1/29) light winds are forecast early for North and Central CA turning northwest 10 kts for both in the afternoon.
- Sun (1/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA building for Central CA to 15 kts steady in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino overnight.
- Mon (1/31) high pressure and the wind machine start with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA and building to 20 kts for Southern CA too. Maybe light rain for Cape Mendocino early.
- Tues (2/1) high pressure rules supreme with northwest winds 25-30 kts for all of North and Central CA early and 20+ kts for Southern CA and holding all day. Light rain for North CA early. Light snow falling south over the Sierra starting before sunrise and through the day.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 1, 2, 1, and 3 inches all starting Feb 1.
Freezing level steadily at 10,500 ft through 1/29, then falling to the 2,000-4,000 ft range on Feb1 unchanged beyond. A change is coming.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (1/28) a small gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 44N 179.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be lifting north and fading with 40-45 kt west winds over a small area producing 32 ft seas at 48.25N 177.5W aimed east. This system is to be gone moving into the Bering Sea on Sat AM (1/29). Something to monitor.
Perhaps a small gale to develop well north of Hawaii on Mon (1/31) briefly producing 27 ft seas at 39N 165W aimed east.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Fading - Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is discharging to the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. And water temps appear to be warming along Peru and Chile. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/24) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/25) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength to near strong status on 1/29 holding through the end of the model run on 2/1.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/24) A weak Active MJO signal was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model suggests the Active MJO barely holding over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then pushing east of it on day 10 with the Inactive Phase building in from the west and by day 15 a strong Inactive MJO is to be moving over the KWGA and filling it. The dynamic model projects much the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/25) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the East Pacific and is forecast tracking east to the the Central Indian Ocean and weak on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the MJO moving to the East Indian Ocean and modest in strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/24) A fairly strong Active MJO signal (wet air) was depicted over the East equatorial Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) steadily moving east tracking into Central America 2/13. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific in earnest starting 2/8 at modest strength building to moderate strength 2/16 filling the Pacific then moving over the East equatorial Pacific and into Central America at the end of the model run on 3/5. A new very weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/22) This model is corrupt.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/25 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was almost past it's peak over the KWGA today though not particularly strong or impactful with weak east anomalies starting to fill the KWGA. Weak to modest east anomalies are to build over the KWGA holding through 3/2. On 2/4 a semi-coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the western KWGA filling it by 3/5 but west anomalies are to not move east from the Maritime Continent until 2/26. The Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 4/7 with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/21. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered a bit east of the dateline with its western perimeter at 170E today moving to the dateline by 3/15 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 135E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 170E on 3/22 filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east quicker to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run on 4/24. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is developing. This should signal the demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the March timeframe.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/25) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 175E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 133W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were building with their leading edge moving east to about 132W and showing signs of drifting east more. All sensors are down at 140W so there is some doubt concerning the above statement but it seems likely a Kelvin Wave has developed and is pushing east. Cool anomalies were fading at -1 degs C 75 meters down at 110W and tracking east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 125W with cool anomalies at -5 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 115W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 130W at -5 to -10 cms with no -15 cms anomalies remaining and even that losing coverage fast. Positive anomalies were creeping east from 178E previously to 135W today. It appears a Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 1/18 that coverage is gone with a second cold pulse quickly tracking east with its core at 115W and collapsing. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 130W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is moving east, the first since last summer likely signaling the demise of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/24) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending from just off Ecuador west peaking between the Galapagos and 120W then weaker west of there to the dateline. This pool appears to be fading in intensity and coverage even from a few day ago. The classic La Nina pattern appears to be in retreat. There were signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/24): Temps were warming mildly off Peru. A previous stream of cooling on the equator from Ecuador to 120W was fading fast and has been replaced with warming temps from Ecuador west to 140W.
Hi-res Overview: (1/24) No real change though the magnitude of the coolness appears to be fading except for one small pool on the equator from the Galapagos to 120W. Weaker cool waters were west of there to the dateline but fading in coverage in the west. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/25) Today's temps were fading slightly at -1.146 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps rose to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/25) Today's temps were rising some at -0.790 after reaching a new peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/25) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug down to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov and holding. The forecast indicates temps slowly toggling upwards to -0.70 degs in Feb then falling to -1.05 degs in May only to resettle at -0.80 degs in the July and beyond. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising in July to -0.70 degs and holding in that range beyond. At this point it is safe to say peak La Nina has been reached but any sort of a wholesale recovery to even neutral seems ambiguous for now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (1/25) the daily index was positive at +16.92 after peaking at +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been more towards negative readings lately after previously being towards positive readings with previous notable peaks at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was falling at +1.59 after peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising at +7.78 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table