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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, January 23, 2022 10:56 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.7 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 1/24 thru Sun 1/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Decent Swell Poised for CA
Smaller Swell For HI & CA Behind - Pattern Change After That

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, January 23, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 12.8 secs from 302 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs (Barbers Pnt), NA (Lani 239), 76.6 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 6.9 ft @ 13.6 secs from 315 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.9 secs from 237 degrees. Wind northeast at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 57.9 degs, 57.7 (Topanga 103), 58.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 58.8 (Del Mar 153), 58.8 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.8 secs from 253 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.8 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.8 secs from 253 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 261 degrees. Water temp 60.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 14.0 secs from 296 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temp NA (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (46026), 53.4 degs (SF Bar 142), and 54.7 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (1/23) North and Central CA had set waves at head high and lined up and peeling with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so and clean and lined up and with good form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but weak. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but weak and mushed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were knee to thigh high and clean and lined up but unremarkable. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and fairly lined up and clean with decent form but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting waves at 8 ft or so and lined up and clean and peeling with good form. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and clean with decent form and no wind. The East Shore was flat and clean with no wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (1/23) Hawaii was getting fading swell from a stronger system that tracked west from the dateline to a point north of the Islands Tues-Fri (1/21) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east. Swell from that system is heading towards California. And another smaller system formed on the dateline pushing northeast Fri-Sat (1/22) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east. Swell is pushing towards HI and CA. And another system to follow over the Northern Dateline region Tues-Wed (1/26) producing a tiny area of 39 ft seas aimed east but not making it east of the dateline. After that nothing of interest is to follow.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (1/23) the jet was reasonably well consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line running east to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds up to 160 kts in one pocket near the dateline and 140 kts in another over Japan forming a broad but shallow trough still offering good support for gale development. The jet split at 155W with the northern branch tracking northeast into Central Canada offering nothing but a continuation of high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours energy levels in the jet are to drop off on Tues (1/25) with the split point moving west to 170E and a new trough developing just west of the split point being fed by 160 kts winds offering some support for gale development just west of the dateline into Thurs (1/27). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (1/28) winds to build off Japan to 200 kts reaching to about the dateline offering some support for gale development there with the split point easing east to 170W on Sun (1/30) but with no defined troughs forecast. It smells like the split point is going to backtrack more in the days beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (1/23) swell from a storm previously in the dateline has produced swell still hitting Hawaii and bound for California (see Dateline Storm below). Also a gale built on the dateline and has produced swell radiating towards Hawaii and CA (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues AM (1/25) another tiny gale is to start building just west of the dateline with 55 kt west winds and seas building from 33 ft at 41.25N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds are to be just west of the dateline with 38 ft seas over a small area at 44N 172.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/26) the gale is to be lifting north while fading with 45 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with 32 ft seas at 45.25N 174E aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Dateline Storm
A gale gale developed Tues AM (1/18) between Japan and the dateline and stronger and broader than those before it with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening a more defined fetch of 35-45 kt west winds built with 26 ft seas at 34.75N 156.5E aimed east. Fetch pushed east on Wed AM (1/19) at 40-45 kts over a broadish area with seas 29 ft at 32.75N 166.5E aimed east. In the evening a solid fetch of 40-45 kt west winds were on the dateline with a tiny core to maybe 50 kts producing 26-31 ft seas over a broad area centered at 38.5N 179.25E aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/20) fetch was e holding position at 40-45 kts just east of the dateline with 36 ft seas at 38N 177.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push east at 40 kts with seas 37 ft at 37.75N 171W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/21) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a decent sized area 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 31 ft at 36.5N 163.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to dissipate with seas fading from 25 ft at 40N 157W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading on Sun (1/23) from 6.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals early Mon (1/24) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs(4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315-328 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival well before sunrise Mon (1/24) and 7.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (12 ft) early holding decently through the day. Residuals fading on Tues (1/25) from 5.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 286-288 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/24) in the afternoon building to 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft). Swell peaking out overnight. On Tues AM (1/25) swell fading from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Wed AM (1/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 291-293 degrees

 

North Dateline Gale
Another decent system developed Fri AM (1/21) west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds over a tiny area and seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 35.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds were lifting northeast with seas 31 ft over a small area at 38.25N 175E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/22) the gale was lifting northeast just east of the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 37 ft at 40.25N 177W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening with 35 kts west winds in the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 30 ft up at 42.75N 170W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate on Sun AM (1/23) with seas fading from 26 ft at 43N 161W. Small swell is radiating towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/24) building to 4.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (7.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading on Tues (1/25) from 4.2 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (1/26) fading from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival early Wed (1/26) at 5.0 ft @ 16 secs (8.0 ft) holding through the day. Residuals on Thurs (1/27) fading from 4.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-292 degrees

Southern CA: Limited energy possible Wed late afternoon (1/26) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals Thurs AM (1/27) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (1/24) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon north winds to be 10 kts for North CA and up to 15 kts for Big Sur southward to Pt Conception.
  • Tues (1/25) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Big Sur southward. Winds fading for Central CA in the afternoon from the northwest at 5-10 kts.
  • Wed (1/26) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA all day.
  • Thurs (1/27) light winds are forecast all day for North and Central CA.
  • Fri (1/28) south winds are forecast at 5 kts early for North CA and calm for Central CA holding all day.
  • Sat (1/29) Light winds are forecast early for North and Central CA turning northwest 10 kts for Central CA in the afternoon and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay.
  • Sun (1/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA building for Central CA to near 15 kts steady in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 13, 12, 15, and 4 inches all starting Feb 1.

Freezing level steadily 10,500 ft through 1/28 falling to 7,500 ft 1/29, then building back to 10.500 ft on 1/30 falling to 3,000 ft on 2/1.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (1/28) a weak gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds over a small area producing a25 ft seas at 35.75N 169E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/29) west winds to be 35-40 kts over a tiny area almost on the dateline with seas 33 ft at 38N 175E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 39N 178W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Fading - Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is discharging to the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. And water temps appear to be warming along Peru and Chile. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/23) weak west anomalies were over the dateline but modest east anomalies were covering the majority of the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage filling the KWGA on 1/25 and building to near strong status on 1/27 holding through the end of the model run on 1/30.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (1/22) A weak Active MJO signal was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model suggests a continuation of a weak Active MJO pattern barely holding over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then pushing east of it on day 10 and by day 15 a strong Inactive MJO is to be moving over the KWGA and nearly filling it. The dynamic model projects a neutral MJO pattern on day 5 with a weak Inactive MJO over the KWGAA on days 10 and 15. The model are not much in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/23) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the West Pacific and is forecast tracking east to the the West Indian Ocean and weak on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the MJO moving to the East Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/22) A fairly strong Active MJO signal (wet air) was depicted over the Central and East equatorial Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) steadily moving east tracking into Central America 2/8. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific in earnest starting 2/8 at modest strength building to moderate strength 2/16 then moving over the East equatorial Pacific and into Central America at the end of the model run on 3/3. A new very weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/22) This model is corrupt.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/22 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was almost past it's peak over the KWGA today though not particularly strong or impactful with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. Weak to modest east anomalies are to build over the KWGA on 1/24 holding through 3/12. On 2/4 a semi-coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA filling it by 3/4 but west anomalies are to not move east from the Maritime Continent until 3/17. The Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 4/13 with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/21. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered a bit east of the dateline with its western perimeter at 170E today moving to the dateline by 3/15 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 130E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 170E on 3/12 filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east quicker to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run on 4/22. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is developing. This should signal the demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the March timeframe.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 175E and steady. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 133W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were building with their leading edge moving east to about 132W and showing signs of drifting east more. All sensors are down at 140W so there is some doubt concerning the above statement but it seems likely a Kelvin Wave has developed and is pushing east. Cool anomalies were fading at -2 degs C 75 meters down at 110W and tracking east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 125W with cool anomalies at -5 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 115W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 130W at -5 to -10 cms with no -15 cms anomalies remaining and even that losing coverage fast. Positive anomalies were creeping east from 178E previously to 135W today. It appears a Kelvin Wave is creeping east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 1/18 that coverage is gone with a second cold pulse quickly tracking east with its core at 115W and collapsing. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 130W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is moving east, the first since last summer likely signaling the demise of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/22) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending from just off Ecuador west peaking between the Galapagos and 120W then weaker west of there to the dateline and fading. A classic La Nina pattern was evident but appears to be in retreat. There were signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/22): Temps were warming mildly off Peru. A previous stream of cooling on the equator from Ecuador to 120W was fading fast.
Hi-res Overview: (1/22) No real change though the magnitude of the coolness appears to be fading except in a stream on the equator from the Galapagos to 120W. Weaker cool waters were west of there to the dateline but fading in coverage in the west. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/23) Today's temps were fading slightly at -1.131 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps rose to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(1/23) Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.869 after reaching a new peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/23) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug down to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov and holding. The forecast indicates temps slowly toggling upwards to -0.70 degs in Feb then falling to -1.05 degs in June only to resettle at -0.80 degs in the July and beyond. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising in July to -0.70 degs and holding in that range beyond. At this point it is safe to say peak La Nina has been reached but any sort of a wholesale recovery to even neutral seems unlikely for now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (1/23) the daily index was positive at +11.17 after peaking at +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been more towards negative readings lately after previously being towards positive readings with previous notable peaks at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising at +3.69 after peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising at +7.56 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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