Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 12.9 secs from 276 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 311 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 14.4 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 12.0 secs from 249 degrees. Wind north 5-6 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 60.6 (Harvest 071), 61.3 (Topanga 103), 61.7 (Long Beach 215), 62.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.9 (Del Mar 153), 62.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 12.2 secs from 277 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 11.9 secs from 265 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.3 secs from 244 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.4 secs from 265 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.4 secs from 269 degrees. Water temperature 63.1 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 11.4 secs from 284 degrees. Wind southeast 2 kts (San Francisco 46026), NW 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 6 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp 55.6 (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 55.8 (San Francisco 46026), 55.9 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 57.7 (Monterey Bay 46092), 57.7 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (1/22) in North and Central CA surf was chest high and lined up and clean but mostly closing out on the inside bar. Protected breaks were waist high and sometime a little more and lined up and clean but soft and pretty closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and lined up and clean but soft. In Ventura County waves were waist high or so on the sets and lined up with good form and clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and sometimes more and lined up with good form and clean with light onshore wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but real soft early. North San Diego had occasional sets at waist high and lined up and mostly closed out and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high or so and lined up and clean with decent from but with some northerly lump running through it early. The South Shore was flat to knee high and clean and very soft if it ever breaks. The East Shore was getting thigh high northeast windswell and warbled with northeast winds at 10 kts.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (1/22) California was getting generic background swell from a small gale that developed on the dateline with 38 ft seas a week before. Hawaii was getting fading swell from a gale that developed west of the dateline Sun-Mon (1/19) producing 26 ft seas aimed east then lifted hard north on the dateline Mon (1/19) with seas briefly to 31 ft aimed east before impacting the Central Aleutians. A small system developed northwest of Hawaii Tues-Wed (1/21) producing 25 ft seas falling southeast. Perhaps a stronger and broader system is to develop off Japan Sun-Mon (1/26) producing 32 ft seas aimed east then getting better organized on the dateline Tues-Wed (1/28) while falling southeast with seas 33-34 ft aimed east before fading in the Western Gulf on Thurs (1/29). And maybe a small system is to develop in the Gulf Sun-Mon (1/26) with 28-30 ft seas aimed east targeting California. And secondary energy is to develop in the Central Gulf Tues (1/27) with 30 ft seas aimed east. A stronger pattern looks to be setting up. there is hope, finally!

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (1/22) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 190 kts reaching to the dateline then split east of there with the northern branch of the jet lifting north over the Central Aleutians and up into the Bering Sea. Some amount of decent energy was tracking east from the split point with a trough digging out over the Western Gulf being fed by 100 kt winds offering some support for low pressure development there. Wind energy from that portion of the jet continued northeast ridging north to a point off Vancouver Island, then falling south over the US West Coast forming a backdoor trough off Southern CA supporting some degree of weak low pressure there before moving inland over North Baja. Over the next 72 hours the split point is to east east reaching 160W on Sun (1/25) with winds in the jet 170 kts and consolidated forming a broad trough half way to the dateline supporting gale formation. Nothing of interest is to be east of the split point. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (1/26) the leading edge of the consolidated jet is to continue pushing east and moving over North CA on Thurs (1/29) with the trough previously west of the dateline tracking east to a point over the Central Gulf on Thurs (1/29) offering support for gale formation there. And winds in the jet are to be 190 kts over the dateline with another trough trying to develop off Japan half way to the dateline. At 180 hours hours the jet is to be consolidated reaching across the width of the North Pacific. This would be a huge step in the right direction.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (1/22) small generic swell was hitting California originating from a small gale previously on the dateline (see 3rd Dateline Gale below). And swell was fading in Hawaii from the 5th in a series of small dateline gales (see 5th Small Dateline Gale below) and being overrun by new swell from a local gale previously northwest of Hawaii (see Local HI Gale). .

Over the next 72 hours 2 gales are forecast, one in the Gulf and another over the West Pacific both tracking east. An improving pattern is to take shape. .

On Sun AM (1/25) a small gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf with 45 kts northwest winds and seas 30 ft over a small area at 45.75N 167W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to hold position still at 40-45 kts and growing in coverage slightly with seas 27 ft at 46N 167W aimed southeast. Monday AM (1/26) fetch is to fade from 35 kts still stationary with seas 28 ft at 45.5N 163W aimed east. The fetch is to dissipate after that. But secondary fetch is to redevelop southeast on Mon PM (1/26) at 45 kts over a small area with seas 30 ft at 42.5N 148.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/27) 40 kt northwest winds are to be in the Central Gulf tracking east with seas 31 ft at 42.5N 146W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas 27 ft at 41.5N 143W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

Another broader gale is to develop just west of the dateline on Sun PM (1/25) with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 36.75N 161.5E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/26) the gael is to track east with northwest winds 45 kts with seas 32 ft at 36.5N 169.75E aimed east. More of the same in the evening with seas 32 ft at 41.25N 172.75E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/27) the gale is to fall southeast with northwest to west winds 40 kts over building area with seas 34 ft at 39.5N 177E aimed east. In the evening fetch holding at 40 kts over solid area approaching the dateline with seas 32 ft at 38.5N 177.25W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/28) west winds 40 kts but fading in coverage with seas 34 ft at 38.5N 175.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 29-30 ft over a broad area at 37.75N 171.5W aimed east. Fetch gone after that. Something to monitor.

Local HI Gale
On Tues AM (1/20) a small gale is forecast developing in the far Western Gulf with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale is to ease east with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 24 ft at 37N 166W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/21) the gale is to be fading with 35 kts northwest winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 37N 163W aimed southeast. Residual fetch falling southeast from there in the evening at 30 kts and seas 19 ft at 34N 168W aimed southeast.

Oahu: Expect swell arriving on Thurs (1/22) building through the day to 5.5 ft @ 13 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell holding on Fri (1/23) at 5.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/24) from 3.4 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

3rd Dateline Gale
Another gale developed on the dateline Thurs AM (1/15) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas building. The gale fell southeast in the evening while growing in coverage with northwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area and seas building to 26 ft at 42.5N 173E aimed southeast. Fetch fell southeast Fri AM (1/16) while building to 50+ kts over a tiny area just east of the dateline with seas 38 ft at 41.5N 179.5W aimed east and southeast. Fetch pushed east in the evening fading from 30-35 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 40N 173W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate after that.

North CA: Dribbles on Thurs (1/22) fading from 3.2 ft @ 12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction 280 degrees

5th Small Dateline Gale
On Sun AM (1/18) another gale was developing mid-way from Japan to the dateline generating 40 kts west winds and seas 24 ft at 35.5N 160E aimed east. In the evening west winds to race east to the dateline at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 33.25N 168E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/19) fetch was lifting hard northeast and winds from the north at 45 kts with seas 26 ft at 37.5N 177.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to continue lifting north producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas 25 ft over a tiny area at 44N 175W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/20) fetch was impacting the Central Aleutians at 40 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 51N 172.5W aimed east.

Oahu: Swell fading Thurs (1/22) from 3.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.0 ft) and being overrun by new swell through the day. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (1/23) a pressure gradient holds producing northwest winds at 15-20 kts over Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient holds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/24) northwest winds to be 20 kts off the coast of North CA and 10 kts nearshore and 10 kts for Central CA early. The gradient fades in the afternoon with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA and 15 kts well off the coast. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (1/25) light winds return from the north at 1-5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon variable winds to be 1-5 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/26) broad low pressure sets up well west of California with south winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds build at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA with low pressure edging closer to the coast. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (1/27) south winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon a front is poised to impact Cape Mendocino with south winds 15-20 kts for all of North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain approaching North CA from the west.
Wed AM (1/28) the front pushes into North CA weakly with south winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon another front eases up to Cape Mendocino with south winds 15+ kts there and west winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. rain starting to impact North CA early and reaching south to Morro Bay in the afternoon while fading up north. No snow forecast.
Thurs AM (1/29) southwest winds to be 15 kts for most of North CA and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay and west 10 kts in between. In the afternoon the pattern moderates with west winds 10+ kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts mainly for Pt Conception. Rain for Pt Arena northward early reaching Santa Cruz mid-morning and filling Monterey bay in the afternoon and holding up north. Snow developing for Tahoe to maybe Yosemite in the afternoon.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level 9,500 Thurs (1/22) falling into Sat (1/24) at 7,000 holding into Tues (1/27) before briefly falling to 5,500 ft late Wed (1/28) then up to 6,500 ft on Thurs (1/29) rising to 8.500 ft Fri (/30). Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 7 inches on 1/29 and Mammoth: 0 inches.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

La Nina Collapsing As a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) Pushes over the KWGA
Cool Waters Fading over NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December '25 suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific while a Kelvin Wave pushed warn subsurface waters east. In early January a strong Active MJO started producing a WWB in the far West Pacific and is likely producing a second Kelvin Wave, And Surface water temp in NINO3.4 were starting to fade. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific if not maybe a transition to a warmer pattern beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/21) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline then strong west over the bulk of the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the dateline and neutral to west west over the bulk of the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/22) Today moderate to strong west anomalies were over the KWGA reaching east to 170W filling the KWGA. The forecast is for moderate west anomalies holding over the KWGA through 1/27 delineating the fading tail end of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) filling the KWGA. After that west anomalies to generally hold at moderate status 1/28 filling most of the KWGA and slow backtracking reaching east to only 155E at the end of the model run on 2/7 filling 50% of the KWGA with east anomalies building to near strong status 1/28 and covering the dateline area through the end of the model run on 2/7. This should continue to dump energy will into the jetstream fueling the storm track and pushing warm water to the east in the form of another Kelvin Wave.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/21) Currently a strong Active MJO (wet air) was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts it sliding east on day 5 of the model run straddling the dateline an fading in coverage, then holding on the dateline on day 10 and easing east on day 15 of the model run holding at moderate status. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/22) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving east over Africa 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase holding strength while easing east over the East Pacific 7 days out then fading over Africa 15 days out and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/21) Today west anomalies were strong filling the KWGA reaching east to 170E driven by the Active Phase of the MJO over the West Pacific. The forecast has the Active Phase pushing east reaching 170E with strong west anomalies over the KWGA holding through 1/28. After that the Active Phase is to dissolve but with west anomalies holding at moderate strength reaching east to 165E 2/4 then retrograding to 150E at the end of the model run on 2/18 but holding at near strong status but with east anomalies near strong developing over the dateline 2/6 holding through the end of the model run on 2/18. A certified Westerly Wind Burst is still occurring and is to continue in some fashion for the foreseeable future.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/22) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the leading edge of the Active Phase of the MJO was developing over the KWGA. West anomalies are to hold at strong status through 2/2 filling the KWGA with the Active Phase easing east through it 2/14. West anomalies are to slowly fade to moderate strength through 2/14 then fading to weak status with a weak Inactive MJO pushing east into the KWGA on 2/6 holding through 3/19. Another Active Phase is to track east over the KWGA 2/16 holding through the end of the model run on 4/21 with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline as the Active Phase takes control. And east anomalies are to start setting up over the Maritime Continent on 1/26 and building some and holding through the end of the model run. It seems like a possible pressure switch is to set up in the next 4-5 days with high pressure building over the Indian Ocean and lower pressure over the dateline driven by the current Active MJO. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific at 130E and is forecast holding at this retrograded position till 2/15 then starting to ease east and pushing hard east starting 3/19 reaching 160W at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up just west of the dateline 4/19. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 155E today with 2 contours with the 2nd contour gone by 1/27 and the first contour tracking east starting now then hard east 3/3 and collapsing east reaching 125W at the end of the model run. Impressive.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (1/22) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back reaching east to 163E, previously at 161E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179W. The 24 degree isotherm was mostly at 125W but now building down 5 meters the whole way to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east reaching east to 115W and also developing off Ecuador. Cooler water was collapsing east of there to Ecuador at -1 degs and moving east from 115W (previously 135W). In all cool waters are quickly losing control of the far East Pacific with warm water pushing east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 reflects this strong change down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and warm anomalies pushing east to 97W and starting to break the surface there. Cool anomalies were getting shoved east quickly east of there (previously 155W). Warm anomalies were filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral (+/- 5 cms) from 175W to 90W 9the Galapagos) with a tiny pocket of positive anomalies at 120W. There was one last pocket of negative anomalies (-0.5 cms) from The Galapagos to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were at 170W and points west of there. -10 cms anomalies were embedded 5 degs north and south of the equator near 140W and to -15 cms in the south pocket and weakening much on the north side of the equator. It seems the remain negative anomalies were rapidly collapsing over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) indicates cool anomalies were dramatically losing coverage over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 95W (previously 148W). Warm anomalies were surging east to 100W (previously 158W then 150W then 125W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. But starting December 1 warm anomalies and a Kelvin Wave started pushing east and are now nearly filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/21) The latest images depict weak a cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from about 120W to 180W. Previous embedded cooler pockets have mostly evaporated (again). This looks like La Nina is quickly losing control at the surface. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador. The warming trend is starting to show on this chart too but far less pronounced.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/21): Temps were warming from Ecuador to 140W (previously 120W) and with a broad area of warming off Chile and Peru. Temps were steady elsewhere.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/22) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling slightly from -0.0 (1/17) to -0.320 and had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/22) Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.969 steady at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at -0.7 (week of 1/14). Previously temps were -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.56 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.92 OND, -0.86 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75.
Forecast (1/22) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward at technically neutral (-0.5) late Jan and neutral (0.0) in early March and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then turning neutral in early Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Dec 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.547, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to -0.364 in JFM and 0.055 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.244 JFM and +0.643 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.251 up from -0.538 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (1/22) the Daily Index was falling at -4.52 but otherwise has been rising since 1/10 but has been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was falling some at +10.09, at -1.92 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +8.63 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +7.77 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising at -1.01 Dec, -1.54 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.32 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.