Thursday, January 20, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 283 degrees. Water temp 77.5 degs (Barbers Pnt), NA (Lani 239), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 300 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.5 secs from 245 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 58.3 degs, 59.0 (Topanga 103), 58.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.2 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.7 ft @ 11.6 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.0 secs from 267 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.5 secs from 253 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 266 degrees. Water temp 60.6 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 294 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temp NA (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (46026), 53.8 degs (SF Bar 142), and 53.4 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (1/20) North and Central CA had set waves at chest high and lined up with decent form but lightly crumbled with light northwest wind texture on it. Protected breaks were maybe waist high and lined up and fairly clean with a light texture on it. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and lined up and clean but very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but very weak. Central Orange County had sets to waist high and lined up and clean but weak and mushed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to knee high and clean but with some light texture on top. North San Diego had sets at thigh high or so and fairly lined up and clean with decent form but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting waves at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean and peeling with good form. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and clean with decent form and no wind. The East Shore was flat and clean with no wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (1/20) North and Central California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was getting small swell from a poorly organized gale that tracked east to the dateline Sun-Tues (1/18) producing 20-23 ft seas aimed well at the Islands. A portion of this swell is pushing to CA too. A stronger system is tracking west from the dateline tracking to a point north of the Islands Tues-Fri (1/21) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east. And another smaller system is to form on the dateline pushing east Fri-Sat (1/22) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east. And maybe a smaller system to follow over the Northern Dateline region Tues-Wed (1/26) producing a tiny area of 33 ft seas aimed east. And yet another similar gale to follow on Thurs (1/27) in the Western Gulf producing 36 ft seas aimed east while another forms off Japan with 35 ft seas aimed east.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (1/20) the jet was well consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line running east to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds 200 kts forming a broad but shallow trough offering good support for gale development. The jet split at 160W with the northern branch tracking northeast towards Alaska then turning southeast towards British Columbia but was not reaching there offering nothing but a continuation of high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours more of the same general pattern is forecast through Sun (1/23) except with winds in the jet fading to 170 kts and the split point moving to 155W with the same broad shallow trough holding. The northern branch east of the split point is to build pushing firmly northeast into North British Columbia. Beyond 72 hours winds to continue fading in the jet east of the dateline but still consolidated offering limited support for gale development until Wed (1/26) when winds again start building to 180 kts over and just off Japan building to 200 kts on Thurs (1/27) again carving out a broad shallow trough west of the dateline offering some support for gale development. As wind energy fades Sun-Wed (1/26) the jet is to unzip with the split point retrograding to 175W only to start rebuilding slowly to the east beyond courtesy of increased wind levels. The northern branch is to continue to be aimed at North British Columbia.
On Thursday (1/18) small swell was fading in Hawaii while pushing east towards California (see Weak West Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another decent system is forecast developing Fri AM (1/21) west of the dateline on a similar track to the ones before it with 50 kts northwest winds over a tiny area and seas building from 28 ft over a small area at 36N 167E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds are to be lifting northeast with seas 36 ft over a small area at 37.5N 174.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/22) the gale is to lift northeast just east of the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas fading some at 33 ft at 39N 176.5W aimed east. The gale is to fade in the evening with 35 kts west winds and seas fading from 26 ft up at 44N 169W aimed east in the Northwestern Gulf. The gale is to dissipate on Sun AM (1/23) with seas fading from 27 ft at 44N 160W. Something to monitor.
A gale gale developed Tues AM (1/18) between Japan and the dateline and stronger and broader than those before it with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening a more defined fetch of 35-45 kt west winds built with 26 ft seas at 34.75N 156.5E aimed east. Fetch pushed east on Wed AM (1/19) at 40-45 kts over a broadish area with seas 29 ft at 32.75N 166.5E aimed east. In the evening a solid fetch of 40-45 kt west winds were on the dateline with a tiny core to maybe 50 kts producing 26-31 ft seas over a broad area centered at 38.5N 179.25E aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/20) fetch was e holding position at 40-45 kts just east of the dateline with 36 ft seas at 38N 177.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push east at 40 kts with seas 37 ft at 37.75N 171W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/21) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a decent sized area 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 31 ft at 36.5N 163.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to dissipate with seas fading from 25 ft at 40N 157W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Oahu: For planning purposed expect swell arrival on Fri (1/21) late afternoon building to 4.6 ft @ 16 secs (7.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat (1/22) mid-AM at 8.7 ft @ 16 secs (14.0 ft) holding through mid-day. Swell fading on Sun (1/23) from 6.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315-328 degrees
Weak West Pacific Gale
A broad system started developing just off Japan on Sat AM (1/15) with 30-35 kts west winds and seas building from 22 ft roughly centered at 36N 160E aimed east. More of the same occurred in the evening with 23 ft seas tracking east at 36N 167.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/16) 30-35 kt west winds were fading just west of the dateline with 23 ft seas at 39N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening 30-35 kt west winds rebuilt some just west of the dateline with seas 22 ft over a small area at 35N 171E aimed east. On Mon AM 30-35 kt northwest winds built to the north with seas building from 22 ft over a broadish area at 36N 177W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 30 kts in the evening with seas 22 ft at 40N 172W aimed southeast. Fetch and seas dissipating fast from there. Likely more 13-14 sec period swell to result for Hawaii from a rather westerly direction starting Wed (1/19).
Oahu: Swell still decent on Thurs (1/20) fading from 4.6 ft @ 13 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (1/21) from 3.8 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (1/21) building to 3.8 ft @ 14 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (1/22) from 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (1/23) fading from 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285-290 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (1/21) high pressure tries to set up with north winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early but northwest 10 kts for the remainder or North and Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure is to try and move inland over British Columbia with wind turning northeast at 15-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and north 10 kts south of there to Pt Conception.
- Sat (1/22) light winds from the northeast are forecast early for all of North and Central CA fading to calm later.
- Sun (1/23) light winds are forecast all day.
- Mon (1/24) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts early for Pt Arena northward and 10 kts south of there over all of Central CA. In the afternoon north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10+ kts south of there building to 15 kts near Pt Conception.
- Tues (1/25) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10 kts for the remainder of North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. Winds fading everywhere in the afternoon from the Northwest at 5-10 kts.
- Wed (1/26) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA all day.
- Thurs (1/27) light winds are forecast all day.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level steadily 10,500 ft today building to 12,500 ft on 1/21-1/22 then falling and leveling off at about 8,500 ft 1/25 through the end of the model run.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours on Tues AM (1/25) another tiny gale is to start building just west of the dateline with 60 kt west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 42N 171.75E aimed east. In the evening 45 kt west winds are to be over the dateline with 34 ft seas over a small area at 44N 178.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/26) the gale is to be fading with 35 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with 27 ft seas at 48.25N 178W aimed east.
On Thurs AM (1/27) 2 more systems are forecast, one on the dateline with 60 kt west winds and 30 ft seas at 39N 175.75W lifting northeast in the evening and building to 55k winds with 36 ft seas at 43N 170.5W. The second gale is to be off Japan in the morning with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 35N 152E building in the evening with 55kt west winds and seas to 40 ft at 34N 159.25E aimed east. Interesting.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Fading - Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is discharging to the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. And water temps appear to be warming along Peru and Chile. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/20) a mix if weak east and west anomalies were covering the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength to nearly strong status filling the KWGA on 1/24 and holding through the end of the model run on 1/27.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/19) A neutral MJO signal was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model suggests a continuation of a neutral MJO pattern maybe moving to a weak Inactive Phase over the West KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a neutral MJO pattern holding turning weakly Active at the end of the model run on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over Africa and is forecast holding noodling around that area at day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/19) A fairly strong Active MJO signal (wet air) was depicted over the entire equatorial Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) steadily moving east tracking into Central America 2/8. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific in earnest starting 2/8 at modest strength and moving over the East equatorial Pacific and into Central America at the end of the model run on 2/28. A new very weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/19) This model depicts no clear MJO signal present but with a mix of weak west and east anomalies in the KWGA. No change is forecast until 1/23 when west anomalies vaporize and light east anomalies start to develop in the KWGA and filling it building in coverage but not strength through the end of the model run on 2/16. But over that duration no signs of either a defined Active nor Inactive Phase is forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/20 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was peaking over the KWGA today though not particularly strong or impactful with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA and forecast holding through 2/13. A mixed MJO pattern is to follow through 3/9 with weak east anomalies over the KWGA. On 3/1 a semi-coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to set up over the KWGA with weak west anomalies in control through the end of the model run on 4/19. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered a bit east of the dateline and is slowly pushing east with its western perimeter on the dateline by 2/13 and holding there moving forward. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 130E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 170E on 2/27 filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east quicker to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run on 4/19. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is developing. This should signal the demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the March timeframe.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/18) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was pushing east to 175E and steady. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 176W. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 133W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +4 deg C were building with their leading edge moving east to about 132W and showing signs of drifting east more. All sensors are down at 140W so there is some doubt concerning the above statement but it seems likely a Kelvin Wave has developed and is pushing east. Cool anomalies were fading at -2 degs C 75 meters down at 110W and tracking east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/13 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 132W with cool anomalies at -5 degs C 30 meters down and pushing to the surface at 115W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/13) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 130W at -5 to -10 cms with no -15 cms anomalies remaining and even that losing coverage fast. Positive anomalies were creeping east from 178E previously to 145W today. It appears a Kelvin Wave is creeping east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 1/13 that coverage is gone with a second cold pulse quickly tracking east with its core at 112W and collapsing. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 138W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is moving east, the first since last summer likely signaling the demise of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/19) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending from Ecuador west peaking between the Galapagos and 120W then weaker west of there to the dateline and fading. A classic La Nina pattern was evident but appears to be in retreat. There were obvious signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/19): Temps were warming mildly along Chile and Peru. But a stream of cooling was developing on the equator from Ecuador to 120W.
Hi-res Overview: (1/19) No real change though the magnitude of the coolness appears to be fading except in a stream on the equator from the Galapagos to 120W. Weaker cool waters were west of there to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/20) Today's temps were steady at -1.060 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps rose to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/20) Today's temps were fading some -0.875 after reaching a new peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/20) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug down to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov and holding. The forecast indicates temps slowly toggling upwards to -0.70 degs in Feb then falling to -1.0 degs in June only to resettle at -0.80 degs in the July and beyond. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising in July to -0.70 degs and holding in that range beyond. At this point it is safe to say peak La Nina has been reached but any sort of a wholesale recovery to even neutral seems unlikely for now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (1/20) the daily index was positive at +7.92 after peaking at +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been more towards negative readings lately after previously being towards positive readings with previous notable peaks at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising at +3.55 after peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was falling at +6.69 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table