BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, January 10, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (1/10) in North and Central CA surf was head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and real clean with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were up to chest high and very lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high with peaks to head high and lined up with decent form and clean but a little soft. In Ventura County waves were waist to near chest high and lined up and clean with occasionally great form. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and real lined up with decent form and clean with strong offshore winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to thigh high and soft and clean with offshore winds. North San Diego had occasional sets at waist high and lined up with good form and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and sometimes a little more and lined up with good form and clean. The South Shore had waves at thigh to waist high and lined and very soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high or so and clean with no wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (1/10) California was getting fading energy from a solid gale that developed over the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (1/4) producing up to 44 ft seas aimed east with secondary energy that developed in the Northern Gulf Tues (1/6) producing 29-33 ft seas aimed east and southeast targeting the US West Coast well then fading off the Pacific Northwest Wed (17) with seas fading from 27 ft. Hawaii was getting the leading edge of swell originating from a gale that developed over the dateline and Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/9) producing 34-35 ft seas aimed east with 28 ft seas propagating east into Sat (1/10) over the Central Gulf. Another gale was developing over the dateline Sat-Sun (1/10) tracking southeast producing 30-35 ft seas targeting Hawaii well with residual seas in the 20-22 ft range falling southeast into early Tues (1/13) and in close proximity to the Islands. And yet another gale is forecast for the Dateline-Western Gulf region Tues-Wed (1/14) with 33 ft seas aimed east. A weaker system is to follow on the dateline Thurs-Fri (1/16) with 26-30 ft seas over a fragmented area aimed east. And yet another is forecast west of the dateline tracking eats Sat (1/17) with 28-30 ft seas aimed east. An improving pattern is setting up.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (1/10) the jetstream was well consolidated pushing flat east off Japan to the Central Gulf (150W) with winds 160-170 over it's length with a weak trough half way from Japan to the dateline and the entire jet offering good support for gale development. The jet split east of there with most energy tracking northeast up into British Columbia offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours starting Sun (1/11) the jet is to continue tracking east off Japan with winds 180-190 kts but almost split mid-way from the Japan to the dateline but with a trough starting to build east of the dateline being fed by 170 kts winds supporting gale formation there. The jet is to quickly reconsolidate Mon (1/12) with 190+ kt winds streaming off Japan to the dateline and the trough building in the Western Gulf while falling southeast and just north of Hawaii offering good support for gale formation before pinching off on Tues (1/13) in the Central Gulf. Support for gale formation fading out. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (1/14) the jet is to remain consolidated from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with winds 170-180 kts over that area and a new trough developing north of Hawaii supportive of gale formation. The split point is to remain at about 145W. On Fri (1/16) the jet is to continue tracking east on the 33N latitude line to a point north of Hawaii but weaker with winds 150 kts off Japan and down to 120 kts north of HAwaii with no obvious troughs and a huge split at 145W with the northern branch pushing directly over Alaska supporting high pressure over the entire US West Coast. Winds are to be building off Japan on Sat (1/17) at 190 kts with a weak split developing just east of the dateline. But that is likely to be short lived las wind energy from Japan pushes east.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (1/10) swell was fading in California originating from a storm previously over the North Dateline (see North Dateline Storm below). And swell was starting to show in Hawaii from a gale previously over the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below) ultimately bound for CA too.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is developing on the dateline (see Dateline Gale below) with much more behind.

West Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing over the dateline Wed PM (1/7) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 27 ft at 43N 180W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (1/8) northwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 46N 176W aimed east (300 degs NCal). In the evening the gale fell southeast some with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 32 ft at 45N 169W aimed east (297 degs NCal). On Fri AM (1/9) fetch fell southeast at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 43.75N 164.75W aimed east (294.6 degs NCal). In the evening fetch was falling southeast and fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 43N 156.5W aimed southeast (292.8 degs NCal). On Sat AM (1/10) west winds were lifting northeast over the North Gulf at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 47.5N 150W aimed east (305 degs NCal). Fetch is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell building on Sat (1/10) to 6.7 ft @ 14-15 secs later (9.5 ft). Swell moderating slowly on Sun (1/11) from 6.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (8.5) ft and being overrun by new swell mid-day. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/12) building to 6.2 ft @ 16 secs early (10.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (1/13) from 5.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals Wed (1/14) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293-297 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/12) building to 2.4 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell continue Tues (1/13) fading slowly from 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft) early. Residuals Wed AM (1/14) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees

Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (1/9) a small gale started developing just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 26 ft at 43N 169.5E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (1/10) the gale was sweeping southeast with northwest winds 45-50 kts over a small area and seas building to 35 ft over a small area at 39N 174.25E aimed southeast targeting the Islands well. In the evening the gale is to push over the dateline while falling southeast with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 36.75N 177W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (1/11) northwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts over a small area northwest of Hawaii with seas 26 ft at 34N 172W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to stall if not back-build in the evening at 30-35 kts coming from the north-northwest targeting Hawaii directly with seas 22-24 ft at 30N 170W pushing southeast towards Hawaii. More of the same on Mon AM (1/12) with northwest winds 30 kts almost reaching the Islands with seas 20-22 ft at 32N 170W and 20 ft at 25.5N 163W and just 300 nmiles northwest of Hawaii. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

West to southwest winds to build to 40-45 kts on the east side of the low Tues AM (1/13) just 1,000 nmiles east of San Francisco with seas 24 ft at 38N 142W aimed east and northeast. Perhaps some energy to result for North CA.

Oahu: Swell building on Sun (1/11) to 6.0 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (9.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (1/12) from 4.7 ft @ 13 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: rough data suggest swell arrival early on Thurs (1/15) reaching 4.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (1/16) fading from 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

.

North Dateline Storm
On Sat PM (1/3) a storm started winding up just west of the dateline with 50+ kt west winds building over a decent sized area while lifting northeast and seas 32 ft at 41N 165.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/4) the storm lifted northeast over the North Dateline Region with west winds 50 kts and seas 39 ft at 48.5N 177.5E aimed east. In the evening the core of the gale was over the Central Aleutians with 45-55 kt west winds extending south of the Aleutians with seas 44 ft at 51.75N 173.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/5) west winds were fading from 35 kts just south of the East Aleutians with seas fading from 33 ft at 52.5N 164W aimed east and southeast. In the evening west winds continued at 35-40 kts just south of the East Aleutians with seas 28-30 ft at 53N 160W aimed east (313 degs NCal). On Tues AM (1/6) secondary fetch developed in the Northwest Gulf producing west winds at 40+ kts with seas 33 ft at 54.5N 151W aimed east (320 degs NCal and mostly shadowed). In the evening northwest winds fell southeast at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 50N 150W aimed southeast (311 degs NCal). On Wed AM (1/7) northwest winds were 30+ kts off the Pacific Northwest with seas 27 ft at 48N 139W aimed southeast (316 degs NCal and nearly shadowed). Fetch and seas are to fade just off Oregon and Washington in the evening at 24 ft at 48N 130W and shadowed relative to CA. Swell likely for CA.

North CA: Swell fading out on Sat (1/10) fading from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs early (5.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (1/11) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308-315 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (1/13) a gale is forecast developing just east of the dateline with west winds 40-45 kts with seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 37N 176.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/14) the gale is to track east with 35-45 kt northwest winds with seas 33 ft at 36N 170W aimed southeast at Hawaii well. In the evening fetch is to hold at 40-45 kts from the northwest over a small area aimed southeast 800 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 28-30 ft at 39.5N 165W with 24+ ft seas extending south to 29N targeting Hawaii well. On Thurs AM (1/15) the gale is to lift northeast with 40 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 39N 159.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 159W targeting California well (296 degs NCal). Fetch fading after that. Something to monitor.

Yet another gale is to develop fragmented off the Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (1/15) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 44.25N 166.25E aimed southeast. The gale is to fall southeast in the evening while growing in coverage with northwest winds 30 kts over a solid area and imbedded winds 35-45 kts and seas 22-26 ft at roughly 42N 170E aimed southeast. Fragmented fetch is to fall southeast Fri AM (1/16) at 30-40 kts with seas 24-30 ft at 40.5N 177W aimed east and southeast. Fetch dissipating after that.

And yet another gale is forecast east of Japan on Fri PM (1/16) with 40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 39.5N 157.5E aimed east. More of the same Sat AM (1/17) with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 37.5N 160E aimed east. The gael continue east-southeast in the evening with seas 29 ft at 34.75N 166.25E aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Fading in the Atmosphere
Cool Waters Dominate NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific an is to hold for the foreseeable future. Perhaps a full return to ENSO neutral is finally setting up over the equatorial Pacific.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/9) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline then strong west over the rest of the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and modest east Central Pacific and moderate west over the dateline and strong west over the bulk of the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/10) Today modest west anomalies were filling most of the KWGA west of the dateline with east anomalies on the dateline and east of there. The forecast modest west anomalies holding through 1/12 Then.... A major Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) is forecast developing over the KWGA starting 1/13 filling 60% of the KWGA then pushing over the dateline 1/20 and holding through the end of the model run on 1/26. If this occurs significant energy will dump in to the jetstream fueling the storm track beyond.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (1/10) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was present reaching east to 161E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 degree isotherm was backtracking from 121W to 125W. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east with most at 150W and a finger to 135W cooler water east of there to Ecuador with a pocket at -2 degs moving east from 112W 9previously 135W). In all cool waters are still in control of the East Pacific though much less strongly the last few days. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/3 reflects the change in trend too with weak cool anomalies filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 170E. But down at the thermocline (-150m) warm anomalies were pushing east to 110W with cool anomalies fading east of there (previously 155W). Some form of warm water Kelvin Wave is pushing east. Warm anomalies were filling the West, Central and much of the East subsurface Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/3) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 to -10 cms cms) from Ecuador to 110W (previously 150W). Neutral anomalies were from the dateline to 110W with a couple of pockets of weak positive anomalies. Warm anomalies were on the dateline and points west of there. -10 cms anomalies were embedded 5 degs north and south of the equator near 140W and to -20 cms in the south pocket and weakening much on the north side of the equator. The far East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern, but it seems to be rapidly collapsing. Heights were weakly above normal from 170W and points west of there. The cool pool is weakly fading over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/3) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 108W (previously 148W) and dramatically losing coverage. Warm anomalies were surging east to 115W (previously 158W then 150W then 125W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina. But now we're beginning to think this La Nina pulse is all but over from a subsurface temperature perspective.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/9) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 175E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across the area east of 150W and holding in intensity. This looks like La Nina is in control at the surface. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador much like the standard imagery.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/9): Temps were warming firmly from Ecuador to 120W and with a broad area of warming off Chile and Peru. Temp were steady elsewhere.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/10) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at -0.658 and have been rising the last 2 weeks, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/7) Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.122, steady at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at -0.5 (week of 12/31). Previously temps were -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.69 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.47 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.85 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6).
Forecast (1/10) - Temps are forecast rising some at -0.55 mid-Jan (up from -0.65), then technically neutral (-0.5) late Jan and neutral (0.0) in early March and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we have been in a weak Modoki La Nina for Fall of '25, then turning neutral in early Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Dec 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.547, up from -0.649 in Nov. Temps to rise to -0.364 in JFM and 0.055 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.244 JFM and +0.643 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.251 up from -0.538 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/10) the Daily Index was at +21.91 but has been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was rising some at +5.66, and has been mostly steady at +3.79 a month ago.
The 90 day average was steady at +7.76 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +7.17 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising at -1.01 Dec, -1.54 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.32 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table