Monday, January 4, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 5.4 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.1 secs from 143 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 16.0 secs from 315 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 262 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 58.8 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 9.7 ft @ 14.5 secs from 300 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.9 ft @ 15.4 secs from 262 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 259 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 5.8 ft @ 13.5 secs from 277 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 13.9 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 18.5 ft from 309 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 20-27 kts. Water temp 52.7 degs (013), 51.6 degs (SF Bar) and 54.5 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (1/4) in North and Central CA waves were 15 ft and torn apart by south winds at exposed breaks with rainy conditions. Protected breaks were chest high up to 1 ft overhead and closed out and clean with strong offshore winds and rain. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and reasonably clean but with some lump intermixed and no rain early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and peeling with glassy conditions when the set came but with a little texture on top. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder to head high and clean and lined up pushing firmly from the north. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high on the sets and clean but inconsistent and weak. North San Diego had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and fairly clean early. Hawaii's North Shore had waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and clean and bigger at top spots but with some morning sickness early. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves head high and moderately textured from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (1/4) swell was fading in Southern California from a strong storm that tracked northeast from the southern dateline into the Gulf Wed-Fri (1/1) with up to 56 ft seas aimed east. Swell was fading in Hawaii but building in North CA from another swell originating from a storm that developed over the North Dateline region Thurs-Sat (1/2) with up to 59 ft seas targeting mainly the Aleutians and points east of there. This storm had the distinction of having the lowest central pressure of any wintertime North Pacific storm in history. Remnant energy from that system pushed into the Gulf of Alaska Sun-Mon (1/4) with 26-37 ft seas aimed east. Another diffuse gale is to form tracking east through the West and Central Gulf Mon-Wed (1/6) with 30-36 ft seas aimed east. After that another strong storm is forecast for the Central Gulf Wed-Thurs (1/7) producing up to 53 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another to be right behind it on Sat (1/9) with 57 ft seas aimed east while another one tracks from Japan to the Dateline region Fri-Sat (1/9) with seas at 50 ft then falling southeast into the Gulf Sun (1/10) and fading only to redevelop Mon (1/11) with 46 ft seas aimed east. A most impressive storm pattern is in control.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday (1/4) the jet was well consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds building to 170 kts over the dateline reaching a point north of Hawaii then weakening but continuing east pushing into North CA. There were no distinct troughs indicated but there was hints of a developing trough on it's leading edge in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska. Over the next 72 hours winds are to build as the jet passes over the Western Gulf on Tues (1/5) to 180 kts with a trough starting to form over the Northern Gulf offering support for gale development while the rest of the jet continues running flat east off Japan at 150 kts. Another trough is to develop in the Central Gulf on Wed (1/6) supporting gale development and pushing east to the Eastern Gulf on Thurs (1/7) while winds build off Japan to 190 kts. Beyond 72 hours wind energy is to continue building in the jet pushing off Japan on Sat (1/9) building to 200 kts reaching the dateline while another trough develops in the Gulf tracking east and pushing into Washington late in the day offering support for gale development. And at the same time winds to build in the jet falling southeast from the dateline at 210 kts carving out a new trough in the Western Gulf pushing east into Mon (1/11) again offering great support for gale development. And on Mon (1/11) winds to build again off Japan to 190 kts starting to fall into a broad trough developing over the Western Gulf also offering great support for gale development. The future remains incredibly hopeful.
On Monday (1/4) swell from a strong storm (Storm #3) was fading in Southern CA (see Storm #3 below). Swell from another broad Storm #4 was fading in Hawaii and hitting North CA having been generated over the North Dateline region and setting records for the lowest central pressure of all time (See North Dateline Storm #4 below), And secondary swell was intermixed near the California Coast (see East Gulf Local Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (1/4) another solid gale (Possible Swell #5 from North CA) was developing in the far Western Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds over a broad area and seas building from 28 ft at 45N 175E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to shift east towards the Central Gulf with winds 35-40 kts solid over a broad area aimed east and a core to 45 kts with seas 26 ft over an elongated area pushing 31 ft in it's core at 40N 155W reaching west at 31 ft at 45N 180W. Fetch is to hold Tues AM (1/5) in the Central Gulf at 30-40 if not 45 kts from the west with seas 36 ft in it's leading edge at 42N 143W aimed east but 26 ft seas building to 33 ft in it's trailing edge to the west at 46.5N 172W aimed east and filling the entirety of the Gulf of Alaska. This system is to be moving east in the evening with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading some at 28-30 ft elongated from 43N 135W to 47N 162W aimed east. Fetch is to be gone on Wed AM (1/6). A long run of swell is possible from this system.
Hawaii: For planning purposes expect sideband swell arrival on Wed (1/6) building to 8.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (12 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (1/7) at 8.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (12.5 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees
North CA: For Planning purposes expect swell arrival on Wed (1/6) after sunset building through the evening and peaking Thurs AM (1/7) at 10.2 ft @ 16 secs (16.5 ft) then fading some later in the day. Residuals holding on Fri (1/8) at 8.7 ft @ 15 secs (13 ft). Swell Direction: 285-295 degrees
Southern CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (1/7) at sunrise at 5.1 ft @ 16 secs at exposed breaks (8.0 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (1/8) from 4.1 ft @ 15 secs (6.0 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell Direction: 294-298 degrees
A strong storm developed on the Southern Dateline Tues PM (12/29) with 55 kt west winds and seas building from 43 ft at 36N 177W aimed east tracking east. The storm pushed east-northeast on Wed AM (12/30) with 55-60 kt west and northwest winds and seas building to 47 ft at 39.5N 168W aimed east. In the evening the storm was sweeping northeast with 55 kt west winds and seas 58 ft at 42.5N 161W aimed east positioned 1,200 nmiles north of Kauai. On Thurs AM (12/31) northwest winds were fading from 40 kts with seas 42 ft at 43N 154W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 39 ft at 45N 148.5W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate after that on Fri AM (1/1) with winds fading from 35 kts and seas fading from 33 ft at 44N 142W aimed east. Large swell has resulted.
South CA: Residuals on Mon (1/4) fading from 4.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292-299+ degs focused on 298 degrees
North Dateline Storm #4 - Lowest Pressure of all Time
A new storm started developing west of the dateline Wed PM (12/30) producing 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building from 32 ft over a diffuse area near 40N 167E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (12/31) the gale build to storm status with pressure falling to 921 mbs, the lowest winter pressure ever recorded in a winter storm in the North Pacific. Winds were 65-70 kts (hurricane force) from the west just south of the Western Aleutians with the ASCAT satellite reporting winds to 85 kts (100 mph) and another unconfirmed report to 95 kts (110 mph). The storm was lifting northeast with seas building to 54 ft at 48.5N 172E aimed east and northeast. The fetch held just barely south of the Central Aleutians in the evening with 55 kt west winds and seas building to 57 ft at 51N 177E aimed east and up to 59 ft at 18Z at 50N 175.5E. The storm fell southeast some on Fri AM (1/1) with 50 kt west winds over a broad area aimed east with 47 ft seas at 50.5N 177.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading but still large with winds 45 kts filling the North Dateline region with 43 ft seas at 47N 179W aimed east. Fetch was fading Sat AM (1/2) with pockets of west winds at 35-40 kts with 30 kt west winds filling a good portion of the North Pacific and seas fading from 36 ft at 48N 173W. Residual fetch was fading over the dateline and further south in the evening at 35 kts with seas fading from 29-30 ft over a broad area centered roughly at 43.5N 170W aimed east. This system gone after that. Possible swell mainly for the US West Coast but with secondary energy targeting Hawaii later. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Swell holding steady all day Mon (1/4) at 7.4 ft @ 16-17 secs late (12.0 ft). Swell fading some Tues (1/5) from 7.0 ft @ 15 secs early (10.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees Note that most energy was traveling on great circle path not directly aimed at the Islands.
North California: Swell to peak on Mon (1/4) mid-morning at 10 ft @ 18 secs (18 ft) and starting to be overrun by more local swell (see below) late afternoon. Swell Direction: 301-308 degrees with most energy from 308 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/4) building to 3.0 ft @ 19 secs late at exposed breaks. Swell peaking on Tues AM (1/5) at 5.0 ft @ 17-18 secs early (8.5 ft) at the most exposed breaks but starting to get overrun by more local swell later. Swell Direction 303-311 degrees with most energy from 310 degrees
East Gulf Local Gale
Secondary fetch from the North Dateline Storm #4 above redeveloped slightly in the Central Gulf on Sun AM (1/3) with pockets of 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 28-30 ft roughly at 41N 158W aimed east. Fetch pushed east and organized more in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 39N 148W aimed east. Fetch was lifting northeast on Mon AM (1/4) at 30 kts from the northwest just off Central CA with seas 25 ft at 38N 139W and points north of there aimed east. In the evening the gale is to dissipate while moving into the Pacific Northwest with 21 ft seas just off San Francisco at 37.5N 130W aimed southeast. Raw swell likely to arrive along with weather for North and Central CA.
North CA: Expect swell arrival Monday evening building quick and raw. At sunrise Tues (1/5) swell to be fading from 13.0 ft @ 17 secs (22 ft) and raw. Mixed residuals of the 2 swell to be steady on Wed (1/6) at 9.2 ft @ 16 secs (14.5 ft). Swell Direction: 283-290 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues PM (1/5) at 5.9 ft @ 17-18 secs (10 ft) at the most exposed breaks. Mixed residuals of this swell and the Swell #4 fading slowly on Wed (1/6) from 4.9 ft @ 16 secs (7.5 ft) at the most exposed breaks. Swell Direction: 290-293 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday a front was moving into North CA early with south winds 15-20 kts from Monterey Bay northward and up to 35 kts for Cape Mendocino building to 20+ kts late afternoon down to Big Sur with low pressure just off the North CA coast. Rain for all of North and Central CA down to Morro Bay in the afternoon. Snow developing for all of the Sierra by midmorning building through the afternoon then fading in the evening. Tues AM (1/5) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA early but with a strong front just off the coast reaching Cape Mendocino later with south winds 25 kts there. north winds building later in the day from Monterey southward. No rain during the day but starting for Cape Mendocino late evening. No snow forecast. Wednesday (1/6) the front is to stall over North CA with 20+ kt south winds down to Pt Arena but light winds from the Golden Gate to Monterey Bay and northwest winds 10 kts down to Pt Conception holding all day. Rain for Cape Mendocino early pushing to maybe Santa Cruz after sunset then dissipating there. Light snow for the upper elevation of Tahoe overnight. On Thurs (1/7) another front is to build offshore with light winds for all of North and Central CA early turning south to 25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena and less to the Golden Gate late afternoon with light winds for Central CA. Rain developing for all of North CA down to San Francisco at sunset. Maybe some snow showers isolated to Tahoe late evening. Friday (1/8) west to southwest winds 10-15 kts from the Golden Gate northward early but light for Central CA turning northwest 15 kts late afternoon. Rain from Monterey Bay northward early fading in the afternoon. Steady moderate snow for the Sierra from Yosemite northward fading in the evening. Saturday (1/9) light winds are forecast for North CA but northwest 10 kts building to 15 kts for Central CA. Rain and south winds developing for Cape Mendocino overnight. Sun (1/10) south winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena but light winds from the Golden Gate southward. Rain for Pt Arena northward all day. Monday (1/11) the front holds over North CA with 30 kt south winds reaching to Santa Cruz mid AM then fading with light winds building behind late afternoon. Rain for all of North CA early pushing south to Morro Bay and fading late afternoon. Solid snow for Tahoe northward and light snow to Yosemite.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 38 inches, 42 inches, 26 inches, and 3 inches.
Freezing level about 8,000 ft through Jan 6 falling to 4,000 ft Jan8 then rising to 7,000 ft the next day and holding, then up to 12,000 ft on 1/12.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another system (Possible Storm #6) is forecast developing in the Western Gulf on Tues PM (1/5) producing 50+ kt west winds over a small area aimed southeast with seas building from 35 ft at 39N 169W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/6) the gale is to track east with 50 kts west winds over a moderate area and seas building from 50 ft at 42.5N 158W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast with 45 kt west winds and 49 ft seas at 435N 150W aimed east. The gale is to lift northeast on Thurs AM (1/7) off Washington with 45 kt west winds and seas fading from 42 ft at 46.5N 143W aimed east. Large raw swell is expected to result with sideband energy from Hawaii and direct energy from the US West Coast.
And another small storm (Possible Storm #7) is forecast taking the same track forming in the Central Gulf on Fri PM (1/9) with 55 kt northwest winds and seas building from 32 ft at 40N 151W aimed east. On Sat AM (1/9) 55 kt northwest winds are to be in the Eastern Gulf with seas building to 42 ft at 42.5N 140W aimed east. Fetch is to fade Sat PM from 40-45 kts just of Oregon with 43 ft seas at 45N 134W aimed east. Something to monitor.
And yet another system (Possible Storm #8) is to be possibly be forming off Japan on Thurs PM (1/7) producing 50 kt west winds and seas on the increase. This system is to pushing east-northeast gaining strength on Fri AM (1/8) with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 43 ft at 42N 158E aimed east at Hawaii. In the evening 50 kt west winds are to be approaching the dateline with 48 ft seas at 45N 167.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/9) with 50 kt west-northwest winds are to be over the Dateline and seas building to 50 ft at 45.5N 176,5E aimed east. Fetch to fade some in the evening at 45 kts solid drifting southeast with 49 ft seas at 44.5N 175W aimed east. The gale is to fade while falling southeast in the Western Gulf Sun AM (1/10) with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 43 ft at 45M 166W aimed east-southeast. The gale is to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 36 ft at 43.5M 158.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.
On Mon AM (1/11) yet another solid gale is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska with 45 kt west wind and seas building from 35 ft at 38.5N 162.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to build to storm status while lifting northeast with 55 kt west winds and seas building to 46 ft at 44N 152W.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
SOI Rising - Equatorial Pacific Cool Pool Warming Slightly
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and stronger still from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and exceedingly strong easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/4) exceedingly strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and reaching east to a point south of Hawaii. The forecast calls for more of the same through the end of the model run on 1/11 with strong east anomalies in control reaching east only to a point south of Hawaii. Weak west anomalies are currently south of California to Ecuador with no change forecast.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (1/3) a modest Inactive MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA today. The statistic model projects it holding through day 10 of the model run then easing eat and out of the KWGA with the Active Phase moving from the Indian Ocean moving into the far West KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the Inactive Phase building over the KWGA to strong status at day 10 and holding strength and position on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/4) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was non-existent over the Indian Ocean today and is to track to the far West Maritime Continent and very weak on day 15. The GEFS model suggests a variant of the same.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/6) No Update. This model depicts a weak Active Phase (wet air) over the East Pacific tracking east while fading pushing into Central America on 12/21. A modest Inactive Phase was over the West Pacific and is to push east and into the Central America on 1/5. A weak Active Phase is to push into the West Pacific on 1/10 easing east at the end of the model run on 1/15. .
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/3) This model depicts no MJO signal today with strong east anomalies over the core of the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to hold strong through 1/10 then weakening to moderate plus status and holding through the end of the run on 1/31. The low pass filter indicates perhaps some weakening in strength of high pressure over the KWGA at the end of the model run but still solidly present.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/4 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with moderate to strong east anomalies in control focused over the dateline. The Active Phase of the MJO is to build modestly over the KWGA 1/15-3/9 with modest west anomalies mainly over the west KWGA with east anomalies holding over the dateline. A weak Inactive MJO is to return 2/17 tracking gently over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/3 with weak west anomalies forecast over the KWGA mixed with weak east anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 3 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run. A fourth contour line is to develop on 1/11 with a filth setting up 2/5-2/20 with the fourth fading on 3/27. A double contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage with a second contour line holding through 3/1. No realistic change in the coverage or position of either is forecast though the model suggest a shift in the border between the two to 150E at the end of the model run. East anomalies that were previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and have stabilized there.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was backtracking to 158E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170E today. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 124W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were locked steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth and moving no further east. A broad cooling pattern was controlling the entire equatorial Pacific with anomalies -1 degs C in the far East, weaker than weeks past and over the entire equatorial Pacific at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/29 indicates the same thing. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were the least negative at any time in months. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to the dateline on the equator at -10 cms continuous over that area with 2 small pockets to -15 cms at 135 and 145W and fading. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and reaching north up to Baja and -5 cms into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Cape Mendocino to the intersection of the dateline and equator then into Southern Chile. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there. But the triangle was not as strong as weeks past but not substantially weakening either.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (1/3) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. One small pocket of colder anomalies was near Ecuador but effectively gone compared to days past. Otherwise a weakly cooler regime was imbedded in the flow between 150-165W in the West and losing intensity even there. And the overall cool pool does not look as cold as weeks and months past. Cool anomalies were losing strength along the coasts of Chile and Peru with stray pockets of warming indicated. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. But the overall cool intensity of that pool appears to be waning. We are past the peak of this event.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/3): Temps continue warming along Chile and Peru reaching west to 100W. And a marked warming trend is occurring on the equator from the Galapagos west to 120W and weaker west of there to 145W. The balance again looks like warming is taking the upper hand.
Hi-res Overview: (1/1) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea. But the trail of markedly cool anomalies previously imbedded in that flow is gone. The peak of La Nina has perhaps past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/4) Today's temps were rising some from -1.4171 a few day earlier to -1.302 today after peaking near -0.9551 on 12/22. A previous peak of -0.595 occurred on 12/11. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/4) Temps were on a slow but slightly warming trend rising from -1.001 a few days ago to -0.969 today after bottoming out at -1.654 on 11/3, beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/4) Today the model indicates temps steady at -1.00 degs after bottoming out in early Nov at -1.25 degs. The forecast depicts temps holding at -1.00 degs to mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.45 degs in April then starting a slow fade to -0.6 degs in August. This is likely becoming a 2 year event in that even if temps were to return to normal in July it would take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind. but we suspect a strong El Nino might be building right behind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -1.10 degs today, and are to hold into Dec, then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.89 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by June. Most models are suggesting a moderate to La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (1/4): The daily index was rising to +25.40. The 30 day average was rising to +17.98. The 90 day average was rising to 10.40. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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