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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 24, 2009 7:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 4.0 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/23 thru Sun 11/29
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #3 On-Track
More Storms to Follow in the Gulf of Alaska

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (11/24) North and Central California was getting decent swell from the Dateline Storm with waves 2-3 ft overhead and clean with offshores in-effect. Southern California was getting this swell too with sets waves head high up north but with northwest winds starting to blow in the early afternoon, and smaller down south, in the waist high range, but clean in San Diego. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftovers of the dateline swell with waves in the head high to 1 ft overhead range and a bit lumped with northeast trades in effect. The East Shore was getting a little wrap around swell from the dateline at in the waist to maybe chest high range, but with onshore winds. The South Shore had a thigh high mix of east trade wind wrap around swell and southern hemi background swell with east trades in control and pretty clean early. 

The forecast for North and Central CA is for the dateline swell to fade out on Wednesday in the 1 ft overhead range.  Then new swell from Storm #3 is to move in later on Thursday (11/26) pushing significant class levels then dropping some on Friday but far from out then dropping more on Saturday. Southern California is to see the same trend with dateline swell fading  Wednesday and out on Thursday as new swell from Storm #3 arrives later building overnight, and solid on Friday, then heading down Saturday. The North Shore of Hawaii is see the leading edge of Swell #3 by Wednesday AM and at significant class levels, dropping some on Thursday and getting smaller by Friday. Theoretically a new pulse of smaller swell is expected in by Saturday providing rideable surf well past Sunday (11/29). The East Shore is to have the same smallish east-northeast local windswell  Wednesday, then coming back up some up on Thursday and even more on Friday to head high or better, then dropping slightly for the weekend.  We're not forecasting for the South Shore now that winter-time rules are in effect.  

Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues moving into the Active Phase with the last of the Inactive Phase trying to hang on over the far East Pacific, but steadily loosing ground. After Storm #3, another decent storm is forecast for the Central Gulf focused mainly on Central CA and points north of there Fri/Sat, though sideband energy is likely to push down to Hawaii, possibly setting up swell for early next week. And a cutoff low is forecast just northeast of Hawaii beyond, possibly providing local swell later next week. the southern hemi maybe is not completely asleep either, with the area under New Zealand offering a tease for the days ahead.  

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (11/24) the North Pacific jetstream had a good consolidated flow with a pocket of 160 kts winds off Japan feeding into a trough with 130 kt winds over the Central Gulf of Alaska,  then splitting 600 nmiles off of Santa Cruz, with the main flow heading north up into British Columbia. The trough in the Gulf was providing good support for gale if not storm development. Over the next 72 hrs the split point is to push east into Central CA on late Thursday (11/26) while the pool of wind energy currently over Japan tracks east to a point northwest of Hawaii at 40N with a bit of a weak trough trying to developing there, though winds are to be down to the 150 kts range covering a smaller area and looking to be pushing any surface level gale developing there northeast. Maybe some support for weak gale development there. Beyond 72 hours a far better trough is to start carving out in the Gulf on Sat/Sun (11/29) with 140 kt winds feeding into it providing some support for gale development. But that nasty split is to re-emerge off Southern CA, likely supporting high pressure there. A new pocket of 160 kt winds is to build off Japan on Sunday too pushing east, but a new split is to form on the dateline Tuesday (12/1) pushing the n orthern branch up into the Bering Sea, likely rendering a poor surface pattern for the Gulf for the days ahead. 

At the surface on Tuesday (11/24) Storm #3 was pushing east to northeast through the Gulf of Alaska (see details below). High pressure at 1024 mbs was hanging on just off Central CA, and another batch of low [pressure was trying to organize off Kamchatka pushing southeast. Swell from a gale that was west of the dateline last week was still hitting CA (see Dateline Storm below). Over the next 72 hours the main focus of attention is to the swell resulting from Storm #3 hitting Hawaii and then California. By Wednesday (11/250 the gale off Kamchatka is to make it to the dateline and start building some with up to 45 kts west winds at 50N 180W aimed due east up the 306 degree great circle path to North CA with 32 ft seas developing there, holding into the evening but reorganizing while dropping south some, with 30 ft seas at 47N 178W.  Thursday AM (11/26) 45 kt northwest winds are forecast pushing southeast to 48N 165W with 30 ft seas at 50N 168W then tracking northeast up into the Northern Gulf with 32 ft seas at 52N 160W. Likely that some degree of limited 17 sec period swell will result pushing east and southeast towards Hawaii with arrival on Saturday (11/28) and the US Mainland on Sunday  (1//29), but that is more just pure speculation at this early date. 


Dateline Storm

A decent storm started building off the Kuril Islands on Wednesday AM (11/18) with winds confirmed at 55-60 kts at 476N 164E aimed due east or right up the 304 degree path to North Ca and 30 degrees east of the 319 degree path to Hawaii.  Seas were on the increase. Wednesday PM those winds held, confirmed at 55-60 kts at 48N 170E and lifting northeast pushing energy directly down the 305 degree path to Central California and 30 degrees east of the 325 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building. This system reached just west of the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians Thursday AM (11/19) with a solid fetch of 50-55 kt west winds modeled at 50N 170E pushing directly down the 308 degree path to Central CA and down the 327 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 37 ft at 50N 172E. The core of this gale was moving into the Bering Sea.  In the evening 45-50 kt west winds were holding stationary at 51N 173E pushing 45 degrees east of the 330 degree path to Hawaii and barely clear of Aleutian interference down the 306 degree path to Central CA. Seas were modeled at 43 ft at 50N 174E. Friday AM (11/20) 45 kt west winds held just barely south of the Aleutians at 51N 175E with 38 ft seas at 50N 180W barely reaching clear down the great circle path to Central CA and shadowed by the Aleutians for any break north of say Pt Reyes. Remnant 30 ft seas and 40 kt west winds continued from this system Friday PM at 49N 173W
then dissipating. Longer period moderate size swell is likely already pushing towards Hawaii for Sunday (11/22) with small to moderate sized northwesterly swell for the US West Coast early to the middle of the following week.  

North CA:  Swell down to 5 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.5 ft faces) Wed AM (11/25). Swell Direction: 305-308 degrees

 

Storm #3 
A new gale started organizing Sunday AM (11/22) from fetch tracking southeast off Kamchatka heading towards the dateline with pressure 992 mbs.  Winds were confirmed at 45-50 kts over a small area at 43N 172E aimed 25 degrees south of the 296 degree path to North CA and right down the 318 degree path to Hawaii.  Seas were on the increase. In the evening a tiny area of 50-55 kt west winds were located at 40N 170W with a broad area of 40-45 kt northwest winds west of there aimed well down the 330 degree path to Hawaii and 25 degrees south of the 290 degree path to Central CA. 25 ft seas were modeled but the Jason-1 satellite confirmed seas at 28 ft with a single peak reading to 35.8 ft at 43N 175E. This is better than expected but pretty typical of the models because they underestimate wind speeds early in a storms life (don't 'get' that winds often ramp up very fast). 

This system got better organized Monday AM (11/23) as it moved into the Western Gulf with 55 kt west winds modeled at 41N 167W aimed a bit south of the 287 degree path into Central CA and about 40 degrees east of the 335 degree path into Hawaii. 28 ft seas were modeled at 42N 178W. The QuikSCAT satellite started having major problems then with wind data ceasing to be reported. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the fetch at 18Z and reported seas of  30.5 ft with one peak reading to 36.7 ft, where the model indicated 30 ft. This was besting the model a little. In the evening the storm consolidated with 45-50 kt west winds modeled at 40N 160W aimed directly down the 286 degree path to Central CA and with sideband energy pushing down the 357 degree path to Hawaii. 32 ft seas were modeled building at 40N 171W for Hawaii and 40N 160W for the US mainland. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass directly over the fetch and reported seas of 34.7 ft with one peak reading to 37.7 ft at 40N 162W. This is 3 ft higher than what the Wavewatch 3 model projected, a good sign.   

On Tuesday AM (11/24) pressure was 964 mbs with a fading 45 kt west fetch modeled at 41N 153W aimed well up the 288 degree path to NCal and the 296 degree path to SCal while the storm started lifting north. No real fetch was aimed at Hawaii. 38 ft seas are forecast at 42N 153W for the US West Coast and 36 ft seas lingering behind at 39N 168W for Hawaii.  40-45 kt west winds are to hold in the evening at 45N 145W aimed due east (302 degree path to NCal) with 41 ft seas from previous fetch hanging on at 43N 147W for the mainland (296 degrees NCal) and residual seas of 32 ft at 36N 160W for Hawaii.  This system is to be rapidly deteriorating by Wednesday AM with residual 30 ft seas at 42.5N 139W on the 296 degree path to NCal with more energy north of that angle. 

This storm is developing about on track with the models, and as such, some degree of solid longer period swell is likely for both Hawaii and the entire US West Coast. This is to be nothing extraordinary, just your average early season winter storm.  It is to track decently on a rather southern path passing reasonably close to Hawaii but with fetch at it's peak aimed more east of the Islands and targeting the US mainland better. But a good amount of fetch from early in the storms life is to be aimed right at the Islands, in the exact timeframe that the models did not well estimate wind speeds. This is where the bulk of the swell will originate for Hawaii.  This system was 876-1589 nmiles from Hawaii and 1132-2529 nmiles form Calfironia. 

Note:  The QuikSCAT satellite is having major problems, with the antenna spin rate down below prescribed levels (15 rpm) on Monday (11/23) and then going effectively stationary.  This means that no valid data is being produced. Engineers are working to figure out a way to restore service.    

Hawaii:  Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival on Wednesday (11/25) at 8 AM HST with period 20 secs and size coming up fast.  Swell to start peaking as period turns to 17 secs about 2 PM.  Pure swell expected at 10 ft @ 17 secs (16-17 ft Hawaiian at top spots).  Period dropping near sunset with size holding.  Swell to drop some overnight and by sunrise Thursday (11/26)  swell 9 ft @ 14-15 secs (13 ft Hawaiian) and fading quickly. 12 sec residual on Friday.  Core Swell Direction: 331-338 degrees 

North CA:  Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival on Thursday (11/26) mid-morning with period 20 secs and size small but starting to build.  Size to continue upwards,  starting to get solid as period turns to 17 secs just after noon and heading upward from there, with peak swell 10 ft @ 16 secs (16 ft faces) in the early afternoon.  Size holding through early evening.  Swell to be dropping some overnight but still decent energy expected for Friday with reinforcements coming in from the dateline at 17 secs about 2 PM intermixed with the previous swell pulse (swell hovering in the 7-8 ft range at 15-16 sec range:  11-13 ft faces) . Swell to be fading on Saturday. Swell Direction: 290-296 degrees first pulse and 284-290 degrees second pulse.   

Southern CA
: Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival on Thursday (11/26) starting at 2 PM with period 20 secs and size small but starting to build.  Size to continue upwards,  starting to get solid as period turns to 17 secs near 10 PM and heading upward from there, with peak swell 4.4 ft @ 17 secs (7.5 ft faces) inside the Channel  Islands and up to 8.5-9.0 ft @ 17 secs outside (15 ft faces).  Size holding through the early morning hours of Friday.  Swell to be dropping some by sunrise Fri (11/27) but still decent energy expected with reinforcements coming in from the dateline at 20 secs by 11 AM pushing to 3.5-3.7 ft @ 17-18 secs at sunset (6-7 ft faces) inside the Channel Islands and up to 6.5-7.0 ft @ 17 secs outside (11-12 ft faces). Swell to be fading on Saturday. Swell Direction: 293-300 degrees first pulse and 287-295 degrees second pulse. 

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (11/24) east to light northeast winds were in-effect along the Central CA coast providing offshores to many locations. High pressure was ridging into the Central Oregon coast, centered 500 nmiles off Monterey Bay.  A repeat is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.  Another small low pressure system is to push into North CA early Friday before sunlight, with brisk north winds (25 kts) following directly extending down to Pt Conception and holding Saturday, then dying with offshores expected by Sunday (11/28) and continuing non-stop into mid-next week.
 

Tropics
With the MJO moving into the Active Phase, net tropical activity is expected to head up some starting 11/20, though it is late in the season. This will be a true test of this El Ninos strength.

Right on cue Typhoon Nida has formed in the West Pacific (11/24) with sustained winds 75 kts located 300 nmiles south of Saipan. Slow and steady strengthening is forecast with winds up to 110 kts on Friday (11/27) with Nida tracking north-northwest remaining in open waters well east of the Northern Philippines on Sunday (11/28). 

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface no swell producing fetch was occurring. A series of gales are to pass under New Zealand, the first on Wednesday afternoon (11/25) generating 40-45 kts southwest fetch and nearly 30 ft sea at 50S 174E aimed decently at Hawaii, with swell possibly radiating in that direction.  Another stronger but still small system is to follow Friday AM (11/27) with 55 kt southwest winds and 36 ft seas at 48N 178E, tracking east-northeast with 50 kts winds and  36 ft sea at 46S 171W in the evening,  pushing 38 ft Saturday AM at 47S 161W with winds fading and falling to the southeast. Possible decent southern hemi swell for could materialize for Hawaii a week out if this comes to pass.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs and typical of the Active Phase of the MJO during an El Nino year, tropical energy is forecast pushing northeast out of the West Pacific reaching the dateline on Friday (11/27)  and starting to build, with a solid fetch of 45-50+ kt winds forecast for the Central Gulf by late Friday holding into early Saturday but lifting steadily northeast. Up to 45 ft seas are forecast but mostly as it is lifting out of the Central CA swell window. Some degree of swell could result for both Hawaii and California from earlier in this storms life assuming the models are correct. And more is forecast behind that, though weaker. Also a cutoff low is forecast north east of Hawaii on Monday with 35 kt north winds.  Maybe local swell to result for the Islands. In all, certainly a more active pattern is in the making.  But the tendency for these system to push northeast is problematic.  

 

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (11/24) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Active Phase supporting the continued evolution of El Nino. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index continued in the negative range with the Daily SOI index holding at -20.05 (7 days positive over the whole length of the Inactive Phase and then  negative for 13 days in a row). The 30 day average was up to -9.86 (the effects of the Inactive Phase) while the 90 average was down some to -6.03.  This continues looking more like a legitimate El Nino based solely on the SOI.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated a quickly fading and weak area of easterly anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase barely hanging on from just east of the dateline into Central America.  But a broad area of westerly anomalies associated with the Active Phase had entering the far West Pacific and reached as far east as New Guinea and beyond. The Inactive Phase is expected to be gone by 11/28 while the new Active Phase pushes east to the dateline, then holding there and easing over into the East Pacific while slowly dissipating into 12/13.  This episode is looking about like the last run of the models (generally weak), which is to be expected given that we are in an El Nino configuration. In short, the Inactive Phase is all but gone and the Active Phase is moving in helping to build El Nino. Net storm actively is likely to start being enhanced by 11/23, and on the upswing from there from 3-4 weeks with north winds hopefully subsiding along the US West Coast by 11/28 (a bit of a reach).

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (11/23) indicates that warmer than normal waters are consolidated on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline, but have been steadily pulling away from the Baja coast.  The lack of a real Kelvin Wave in a while is likely not helping that situation, as well as the Inactive Phase being in control for the moment.  But with the coming of a new strong Kelvin Wave (see below) there is some anticipation that warmer waters might build to the north. From an El Nino perspective, it make no real difference though.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to hold on equator, though not deepening any. This overall warmer water signature remains not anything exceptional, but clearly in the moderate El Nino category.  

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field).  We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality.  The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.    

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look favorable. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  As of 11/24 a core of 5+ deg warmer than normal sub-surface water is currently tracking east located at 120W with it's leading edge at 115W. This Kelvin Wave that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 and has been tracking steadily east since then. This remains a very solid Kelvin Wave, and large in areal coverage too, extending 3600 nmiles miles long. This sub-surface temperature wave is the result of a prolonged persistent  westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and continued into 11/5. It is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador in the first week of December. This should have a significant positive impact enhancing the existing warm pool when it hits Central America.  

Over the Equatorial Pacific and consistent with the Active Phase, surface winds were starting to move anomalously from the west extending the whole way from Indonesia to a point south of Hawaii, with fully blowing west winds confirmed in the far West Pacific. A new Westerly Wind Burst might be developing which could help to form yet another Kelvin Wave. The Kelvin Wave currently tracking east was formed from a prolonged bout and multiple pulses of westerly winds and westerly anomalies that occurred from 9/8 through 11/2. At one point towards it's end the anomalies reached the whole way from the West Pacific to almost Ecuador. Embedded in that run were Typhoons Dujuan, Choi-Wan, Parma, Melor and Nepartak. All this helped to deepen the surface warm pool in the tropical Eastern Pacific.  

El Nino is expected to affect the global atmospheric weather pattern at least through Spring of next year if not into the middle of summer. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty.  In short, all the best models aren't exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.   

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch is to develop.   

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Add a STORMSURF Buoy Forecast to your Google Homepage. Click Here: Add to Google
Then open your Google homepage, hit 'edit' button (top right near graph), and select your location


MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

See a screening of recent Powerlines Production Mav's footage: Tues Dec 1st at 6 PM at La Costanera Restaurant, Montara Beach. www.lacostanerarestaurant.com 8151 Cabrillo Hwy, Montara CA 650-728-1600

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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