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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 19, 2007 4:34 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.7 - California & 4.3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/19 thru Sun 11/25
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm Pattern Shifts West - Focus Turns to Hawaii
South Pacific Season is Over

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead)
Advanced: Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Intermediate: Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft)
Impulse/Windswell: Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Sunday (11/18) Northern CA surf was 1-3 ft overhead and a bit wind textured. San Francisco area beaches are all open post oil spill, though conditions are still marginal at Ocean Beach. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were head high, maybe a foot more. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was 1-3 ft overhead. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was chest high with sets to near head high at better exposed north facing breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was chest high with occasional head high sets. South Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist to nearly chest high. The South Shore was waist high and fading. The East Shore waist high.

North/Central California was in the middle of advanced class swell coming from the Gulf of Alaska. Southern California was getting a respectable dose of wrap-around swell from the Gulf of Alaska best at exposed north facing breaks. Hawaii's North Shore was small with fading energy coming from the dateline. The last little pulse of southern hemi energy was fading on the South Shore. A little south swell that is fading in Hawaii is expected to hit Southern California late Sunday. But for the US West Coast swell from the Gulf of Alaska is to continue for 2 more days, with a little shot of reinforcements arrive Tuesday in the north. After that the pattern to start shifting more to the west which favors Hawaii in terms of bulk size, but should help in increase the period and organization of energy pushing to the US mainland. Details are unsure but first up is a small storm forming north of Hawaii Sun-Tues (11/20) and a second right behind falling southeast over the dateline Tues-Wed (11/21). Yet another is forecast forming off Japan and pushing clear across the dateline Fri-Sun (11/25) with another right behind that. Looks like winter might be getting started in earnest if the models are right. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Sundays jetstream charts (11/18) for the North Pacific indicated a slightly confused flow pushing off Japan with some energy, with winds to 140 kts, then dissolving quickly as it approached the dateline pushing into a weak ridge. It took a steep but weak dive north of Hawaii then ridged into the US West Coast. No obvious support for low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours a weak trough is to develop in the Western Gulf Monday (11/19) pushing east for 24 hours before dissolving. Limited support for gale development there. But in the West things to really start firming up with a solid flow of 160 kt winds pushing off Japan reaching the dateline with a trough trying to organize there while a very weak flow is forecast in the East ridging into Canada. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is to form in the Western Gulf on Wednesday (11/21) on the leading edge of all that energy pouring off Japan likely supporting gale development there while off Japan winds build to 180 kts pushing firmly over the dateline. Good support for storm development in the dateline region Saturday (11/24) and beyond.

At the surface today weak high pressure at 1020 mbs was just off Southern CA having essentially no impact with a second stronger high at 1032 mbs north of Hawaii generating up to 30 kt northeast winds and 16 ft seas targeting Hawaii's northeast Shore's with what will likely be windswell. Of more interest was a little 996 mb low pressure system developing over the dateline with maybe 35 kt winds aimed south, and a bit west of the Islands. This is to be the system to watch for the near-term. See details below (Storm #5)

Also starting late Monday (11/20) a 986 mb gale is forecast winding up over the far western Aleutians with 40 kt northwest winds forecast near 50N 165E. This fetch to be much larger than the previous system and growing into Tuesday AM with winds 40 kts extending from Kamchatka all the way to and over the dateline. 26 ft seas forecast at 50N 165E. 40 kt northwest winds to continue in the evening at 48N 180W aimed 25 degrees south of the 306 degree path to North CA and 25 degrees east of the 331 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building to 30 ft at 48N 178E. Wednesday AM 35-40 kt winds to sink southeast reaching 44N 170W generating 30 ft seas at 45N 175W aimed towards 30 degrees south of the 295 degree path east to California and 20 degrees east of the 336 degree path to Hawaii. This system to be gone by the evening If all this comes to pass (a bit of a reach) some form of significant class swell is expected for Hawaii Friday (11/23) with advanced class swell for exposed breaks in North California on Sunday (11/25) and near intermediate class surf in Southern CA.

 

Storm #5 Updated Mon PM
On Saturday evening (11/17) the QuikSCAT satellite confirmed a tiny area of 60 kt northwest winds associated with a developing storm near the dateline. Winds in the storms southwest quadrant were at 42N 180W targeting Hawaii down the 319 degree path. Seas were building.

Sunday AM (11/18) winds were confirmed at 55 kts at 43N 176W in the storms northwest quadrant aimed right down the 336 degree great circle path to Hawaii with seas to 22 ft and 30 degrees south of the 295 degree path to North California. In the evening 50-60 kt winds were again confirmed at 42N 166W aimed a bit east of the Hawaiian Islands down the 342 degree path generating 26 ft seas at 40N 175W. Also a tiny fetch of 40 kt west winds were near 40N 165W aimed towards California with a tiny area of 29 ft seas modeled at 40N 170W up the 290 degree path. The Jason-1 satellite passed right over the fetch in the south quadrant and confirmed seas at 29 ft, where the model suggested seas should have been 25-26 ft. So the storm was doing better than the model (no surprise given the QuikSCAT data). Suspect seas aimed at Hawaii are probably 32+ ft.

North to northwest winds continued strong in the area into Monday at 50-60 kts near 43N 160W aimed 35 degree east of the 355 degree path to Hawaii and generating 26 ft seas at 43N 168W. Also 40-45 kts northwest winds continued aimed 35 degrees south of the 292 degree path to North California generating seas to 29 ft at 40N 162W. These winds to continue late Monday aimed more to the east at 50-55 kts at 48N 160W aimed 40 degrees east of Hawaii down the 357 degree path but more at California generating up to 35 ft seas at 45N 160W aimed towards North CA down the 296 degree path about 1800 nmiles out.

By Tuesday AM (11/18) the last real push of this swell is forecast as the storm pushes east of the Hawaii and focuses on California with 45-50 kt winds at 47N 152W generating a tiny area of 42 ft seas at 47N 154W aimed well at North CA down the 298 degree path (304 SCal). By evening this system to be fading out with all energy aimed at Canada and points north.

This system was moving through the northern portion of the Hawaiian swell window with most fetch not sitting on any one portion of the oceans surface for long limiting it's ability to get traction and generate seas relative to Hawaii. Still 60 kt winds have been confirmed and the Jason1 satellite is reporting higher seas than projected by the models. We're going out on a limb and suggesting near significant class swell for Hawaii just due to their close proximity. But there is much uncertainty there.

Expect possible north angled significant class swell for Hawaii very early Wednesday morning with period at 18 secs, building in size by sunlight with period at 17 secs. Swell expected to peak near 7.5-8.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (12-13 ft faces). Swell Direction: 335-350 degrees

A decent dose of advanced class+ swell is also expected for North California late on Thanksgiving Day (11/22) reaching 8.0 ft @ 16 secs (10-11 ft+ faces) pushing south for the day after. Certainly something to watch.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/18) a near neutral pressure pattern was in control with generally light winds occurring (other than 10-15 kt north winds over Pt Conception). High pressure at 1028 mbs to move in from the west off Cape Mendocino by Monday though (11/19) forming brisk north winds over nearshore waters from Pt Conception northward, then fading late Tuesday. The high to push inland by Wednesday (11/21) with a light offshore flow taking over through Friday. Neutral pressure to return Saturday (11/24) with light to no winds over coastal waters through next weekend.

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the oceans surface no swell producing fetch is occurring and non forecast for the next 72 hours.

New Zealand Low
On Thursday (11/8) a non-closed isobar low was sitting just southeast of New Zealand forming a pressure gradient with higher pressure at 1032 mbs centered southwest of Tasmania. The result was and has been a steady patch of 35-40 kt southwest winds near 50S 175E since early Wednesday (11/7) aimed well towards Hawaii up the 200 degree great circle path pushing to near 45 kt Wednesday evening, generating 29 ft seas Wed PM at 53S 165E peaking at 30 ft at 51S 175E Thursday AM. Another little pulse of 40 kts winds occurred Thursday PM with seas holding in the 29-31 ft range at 46S 170W, then fading. Minimal swell from this system to push into Southern CA late Sunday (11/18) peaking Monday at 2 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces) from 215 degrees. This is the last one for the season.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a fundamental shift in the North Pacific weather pattern is to start taking shape. Since early October low pressure has remain set in the Gulf of Alaska sending a series of small to moderate swell into the US West Coast but primarily bypassing Hawaii. Starting Thursday (11/22) high pressure to to take over the East Pacific while a broad low pressure pattern sets up off the Kuril's Islands and Japan supported by a strong upper level flow off Japan in the jetstream. A small fetch is to start building off Japan aimed east towards Hawaii with winds up to 40 kts late pushing over the dateline Saturday and North of Hawaii Sunday on the 40N line with winds still in the 40 kt range. Seas forecast to 30 ft late Friday holding through the period aimed best at HAwaii and decently at California. Significant class swell for Hawaii possible. Yet another strong one to follow right behind on the same route with seas to 32 ft.

MJO Note: Odds for larger surf are expected to increase with the Madden Julian Oscillation moving into the Active phase as of right now. Anomalous west winds at the 850 mb level are starting to set up over the South China Sea and are expected to push east in the Pacific by 11/20, continuing east and slowly loosing strength through early December. This sort of pattern typically results in improved odds for storm development, improving odds for swell development. The Southern Oscillation Index is still quite positive (+22), but we're expected to see it falling into the negative range in the next week if the models projection on the MJO are accurate.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. The season is over.

Details to follow...

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) , Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) , Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) , Kelvin Wave

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Sharkwater: There's a new feature film called Sharkwater that is hitting theaters November 2nd. Sharkwater is an award winning documentary (22 international film awards including the UN and Cannes) that broke box office records in Canada, opening to bigger numbers than any documentary in history save Fahrenheit 911 and Supersize Me. It is a conservation film that demonstrates that the biggest influence on the air we breathe, and global warming is life in the oceans except life in the oceans is being wiped out. Shark populations have dropped 90% in the last 30 years alone, and the oceans continue to be destroyed because nobody knows that it's happening Learn more here: http://www.sharkwater.com

Tom Jones California Paddle: California Paddle 2007 is a world record-breaking expedition by Tom Jones, an extreme endurance athlete and environmental activist. Tom will become the first person in history to paddle the entire 1250-mile coast of California on nothing more than a 14-ft. paddleboard. Tom is drawing world-wide attention to the problem of plastic pollution in our oceans. A recent study has found that there is six times more plastic in the ocean than plankton off the coast of California. See more here: http://www.californiapaddle.com/

Bluewater Gold Rush: The first and only chronicle of the California sea urchin dive fishery. Diving, surfing, comedy, and tragedy on and under the waves of California. "A quintessential tale of California ... dramas of adventure and loss on and under the sea" We read it and it's a great story about the bloom of the urchin diving boom in the 70's and the few lucky souls who were right there when it took off. An easy read that's hard to put down. The trials and success of a 'real' California dream right down to it's core. Check it out here: http://www.bluewatergoldrush.com

Submit your story to 'Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Vol. 2': DEADLINE: January 15th, 2008 Casagrande Press is seeking stories, articles, and essays on the general subject of surfing misadventure for publication in Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Volume 2. We are looking for nonfiction, first-person surf stories of bad judgment calls, pranks, comical/ironic episodes, disaster, attacking predators, misfortune, injury, loss of wit or limb, panic, critical conditions, contest meltdowns, everyday fears, surf trips gone wrong or the out-of-water episodes that surround surfing. We are looking for well-written stories that tell a good tale, reflect a culture, and develop the depth of the characters involved. We also like stories that have a tight narrative tension and a payoff at the end. Open to writers and surfers of any level. There is no fee to submit a story. We will consider previously published stories. To see more info on the first book visit www.thesurfbook.com. Submit online at www.casagrandepress.com

Waveriders Gallery: Check out this collection of high quality artwork all related to waves and the ocean. Surf Paintings, Photography, Posters, Books, Boards and exhibits all produced by a variety of top artists provide a beautiful selection of pieces to chose from. Take and look and see some of the stunning work available from these artists. http://www.waveridersgallery.net/

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