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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: November 17, 2009 7:35 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.9 - California & 2.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/16 thru Sun 11/22
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Gale Pattern Restarts
First of Several Raw Swell Pushes Towards CA

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (11/17) North and Central California was getting the first little teasers of what might become a long run of swell with waves 1-2 ft overhead and clean.  Southern California was small with best sets knee to thigh high and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was pretty much flat with only the rare thigh high set warbling through and clean. The East Shore was head high or so and chopped with hard east winds still in effect. The South Shore was waist high with howling east winds and heavily textured conditions. 

The forecast for North and Central CA is for solid utility class swell to be arriving on Wednesday with surf 10-12 ft on the face and pretty hacked up by northwest winds. Swell to be fading some on Thursday with better conditions and waves 9-10 ft on the faces.  Then Friday a local storm moves in with howling south winds and new swell at 12-14 ft, fading Saturday from 10-12 ft with better conditions and 9-10 ft on Sunday.  Southern California is to see the same pattern with swell moving in Wednesday afternoon at 1 ft overhead up north and building into the region on Thursday at the same size if not 6 inches more. Still head high surf is expected on Friday and a little more northerly in direction with a new pulse of swell arriving for Saturday at 1 ft overhead or so, then trickling down Sunday at head high.  Better protection from the wind is expected here. The North Shore of Hawaii is to start seeing some north angled sideband swell from the Gulf arriving on Wednesday at 3 ft overhead and maybe a little more on the sets, fading from 1 ft overhead on Thursday and waist high Friday. Maybe a little more north swell for the weekend, but size generally small. The East Shore is to have more east-northeast  local windswell at 1 ft overhead on through Saturday then dropping a little but not much and not going anywhere for quite a while after that. The South Shore is to have some small southern hemi swell holding on at 2 ft on the face Wednesday, then flat after that with no return in sight.  A winter pattern is taking over.

Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is looking to be moving to the Active Phase a week out, with a building gale pattern already taking hold a forecast to improve with time.  For now one local gale has already pushed through the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska (Mon/Tues) with another forecast Wed/Thurs (11/19) with 35 kt winds and seas in the 23-26 ft range for both. Most swell targeting the Pacific Northwest and California with rain and wind likely from the second one north of Pt Conception.  And another stronger system is forecast right behind it on the northern dateline region over the weekend with more and stronger systems forecast behind that. In short, a progressive series of storm building in sync with the MJO.  Exactly what the doctor ordered. 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (11/17) the North Pacific jetstream had a healthy flow tracking northeast from Japan turning due east just south of the Aleutians and flowing flat towards the Gulf of Alaska, dipping south into a bit of a trough in the Eastern Gulf before pushing onshore over Oregon.  Winds were toggling between 130 and 140 kts over it's entire width, with the trough in the Gulf offering the best odds to support gale development.  A bit of a split was actually present occurring just off Japan, with weak winds of 60 kts tracking due east on the 20N latitude the whole way into Baja. But this was not having much of a detrimental effect. Over the next 72 hrs the split point is to slowly ease to the east while a new trough sets up in the Central Gulf on Wed/Thurs with 150 kt winds feeding into the trough, offering good odds for more gale development there. That trough to push on into Northern CA late Friday with a real mess of weather likely there. Beyond 72 hours the split point is to be north of Hawaii Sunday with the whole jet dropping south, down to 42N with a broad pocket of 150 kt winds off Japan and looking to feed a steady stream of energy into the East Pacific. By Tuesday (11/24) a solid trough is forecast digging out in the Western Gulf and pushing east hard, offering good odds for storm development if it develops as forecast.  This is looking alot more like winter now.

At the surface on Tuesday (11/17) the remnants of the First Gulf Gale were fading off the Pacific Northwest (see details below) and the early signs of a Second Gulf Gale were starting to materialize in the far Western Gulf. Otherwise high pressure at 1032 mbs was locked in 900 nmiles north of Hawaii generating abroad fetch of 20 kt east winds pushing up to the Hawaiian Islands and generating moderate sized east windswell along East facing Shores. Rain from the front associated with First Gulf is to reach down into the SF Bay area Tuesday evening. But by far the most interesting feature was an almost continuous fetch of 30 kt west to northwest winds extending from the dateline southeast to just off Oregon, the start of the Second Gulf Gale.  Over the next 72 hours models suggest another gale is forecast for the Eastern Gulf.  By Tuesday PM (11/17) an elongated fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds is projected at 45N 150W originating almost from the dateline with seas on the increase. By Wed AM (11/18) 40 kt west winds are to be consolidating off the Pacific Northwest at 45N 140W with 26 ft seas at 45N 145W pushing southeast fast, with the first fetch pushing on shore in the evening and more 30-35 kt west winds behind that. 28 ft seas are forecast at at 45N 133W in the evening.  Thursday AM (11/19) more 30-35 kt fetch is forecast with 23 ft seas south of the 296 degree path into Central CA at 40N 134W with more 30 kts fetch following. Residual 23 ft seas are to be pushing southeast Thursday PM  at 40N 130W impacting the Oregon Coast and into CA on Friday (11/20) with 21 ft seas fading offshore at 38N 133W. This is all a forecast though. Still a decent push of swell is likely, along with alot of rain and winds for the Pacific Northwest and Central CA coast (Friday).  

East winds at 20-25 kts are to continue blowing into Hawaii over a decent sized fetch area and aimed right at Eastern Shores there through the weekend (11/22) generating east windswell for exposed shores. 

First Gulf Gale
A gale stared building in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Sun PM (11/15) with 35-40 kt northwest winds confirmed by the QuikSCAT satellite at 43N 152W aimed about midway between Hawaii and California on the 302 degree path to Central CA and well east of the 356 degree path to Hawaii. 23 ft seas were modeled building at 47N 160W. On Monday AM (11/16) that same 40 kt fetch was confirmed moving east to 42N and 146W in the 285-295 degree window to Central CA and mostly outside the window into Hawaii with 25 ft seas at 42N 150W pushing 30 degrees south of the 292 degree path to Central CA. In the evening a defined core of low pressure set up with 35 kt northwest winds at 42N with much 30-35 kt fetch west of there extending from 130-148W. Nice fetch indeed. Seas were 26 ft at 40N 142W pushing 45 degrees south of the 285 degree path into Central CA. Tuesday AM (11/17) continued 30-35 kt west fetch was confirmed at 42N 137-145W and 24 ft seas modeled at 40N 133W pushing 20 degrees south of the 292 degree path to Central CA. In the evening the fetch is to be fading out with 23 ft seas holding at 42N and 135W pushing well towards Central CA.

At this time is is reasonably safe to make a forecast since a good amount of  fetch and seas are already in play.  In fact solid swell has already hit buoy 46006 720 nmiles off the Central CA coast, starting at 6 PM Monday (11/16) with seas in the 20-22 ft range at 12 secs and swell 14 ft @ 13 secs, holding pretty steady if not building some by 7 AM Tuesday with seas 21 ft @ 14 secs and swell 15 ft @ 14 secs. This system was 636-1741 nmiles away from Central CA. Expect some degree of solid sized 13-14 sec period swell pushing into Central CA by Wednesday AM (11/18) with energy wrapping into Southern CA late afternoon.
Swell of 8-9 ft @ 13-14 secs with seas 12-13 ft @ 13-14 secs producing surf in the 10-12 ft range on the face north of Pt Conception. Swell Direction: 288-296 degrees. Southern CA to see swell of 4.0 ft @ 14 secs (5.0-5.5 ft faces) starting late Wed afternoon up north and pushing into Southern CA after sunset from 291-300 degrees. Winds to not be favorable and much lump to be intermixed with this swell due to it's local nature. Solid remnant energy to continue into Thursday and Friday before the next possible swell and storm hits.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (11/17) high pressure was out of the picture with low pressure building in the Gulf and sweeping dangerously close to the North CA coast. A weak front associated with this First Gulf Gale was expected to move onshore over NCal with light rain pushing as far south as the SF Bay Area late Tues PM.  Weak high pressure is forecast to get a nose in to the Point Conception area Wednesday AM generating north winds at 25 kts there and reaching up to Pt Reyes and down over the Channel Islands pretty much washing out the swell expected at that time. But that's to be gone Thursday AM as a new front pushes close to the coast, with calm winds all day. Then Friday (11/20) the second real south wind and rain event of the season is to move in, slamming the coast all day and evening, then clearing overnight with a pleasant pattern expected on Saturday.  But another gale is to quickly build just off Oregon early Sunday with rain pushing as far south as Morro Bay through the day, though winds remaining light. A light wind regime is forecast for the first half of the following week.       

Tropics
With the MJO moving into the Active Phase, net tropical activity is expected to head up some starting 11/20, though it is late in the season. This will be a true test of this El Ninos strength.

No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface no swell producing fetch was occurring nor forecast to occur. 

Fourth New Zealand Gale
On Thursday (11/12) another small gale formed under New Zealand producing a tiny fetch of 40 kt southwest winds aimed well at Hawaii from 55S 170E and tracking northeast while fading resulting in a tiny area of 26 ft seas.  This held through the evening with 27 ft seas initially at 55S 180W fading to 25 ft at 52S 175W in the evening. . Hawaii to see some more background southern hemi swell with period 14 secs on 11/21.

Fifth New Zealand Gale
On Saturday (11/14)
one more strong gale tracked under the Tasman Sea, and faded just southwest of the southern tip of New Zealand on Sun (11/15) with up to 36 ft seas at 51S 168E, but fading before making any more eastern headway. It did not reach into the Hawaiian swell window. No swell to result.  

   
    

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 a decent storm is forecast wrapping up off the Kuril Islands on Wednesday PM with a small area of 55 kt northwest winds forecast at 48N 165E and lifting northeast pushing energy down the 306 degree path to Central California and the 320 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building. This system is to reach just west of the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians by Thursday AM (11/19) with a solid fetch of 50 kt west winds at 50N 170E pushing directly down the 308 degree path to Central CA and down the 326 degree path to Hawaii. Seas forecast at 37 ft at 50N 171E. The core of this gale is to be in the Bering Sea>  In the evening 45-50 kt west winds are to be holding stationary at 51N 173E pushing down the 330 degree path to Hawaii and barely clear of Aleutian interference down the 306 degree path to Central CA. Seas forecast at 40 ft at 51N 175E. Friday AM (11/20) 45 kt west winds are to hold just barely south of the Aleutians at 51N 175E with 37 ft seas at 50N 180W barely reaching clear down the great circle path to Central CA and shadowed by the Aleutians north of there. Remnant 30 ft seas and 40 kt west winds are forecast from this system into Sunday AM  (30 ft seas at 50N 170W). Possible longer period small to moderate sized northerly swell for the US West Coast early to the middle of the following week if this occurs.   

Beyond the models suggest a whole strong of small storm developing off Kamchatka and sinking southeast towards the Gulf.  The first is forecast Monday AM (11/23) in the Western Gulf with 50-55 kt wind producing a small area of 40 ft seas into Tuesday PM. Another is forecast building off Kamchatka at the same time.   

 

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (11/17) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was barely in the Inactive Phase, but weakening fast. And in all reality, were were effectively back in the Active Phase (what we are looking for in a building El Nino). The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index continued in the negative range with the Daily SOI index at -5.41 (only 7 days positive over the whole length of the Active Phase and now back negative for 6 days in a row). The 30 day average was up to -12.02 while the 90 average was down some to -5.03.  This continues almost looking like a legitimate El Nino based solely on the SOI.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated a fading and weak but still broad area of easterly anomalies pretty much filling the equatorial Pacific from west to east centered a bit east of the dateline. This episode appears to have maxed out, and is expected to slowly fade while pushing east letting go of the dateline region on 11/21, and then into Central America on 11/26, gone by 12/1. All the while a weakly building version of a new Active Phase is organizing in the Indian Ocean pushing east into the far West Pacific on 11/21 and reaching the dateline 12/1 and holding into 12/6.  This episode is looking a little weaker again than previously projected a few days ago, which is to be expected given that we are in an El Nino configuration. In short, the Inactive Phase appears to be fading producing only a week of easterly anomalies, a good thing to not suppress our building El Nino with westerly anomalies up to bat. We'll see what really happens. But for now the assumption is the net storm actively is likely to be suppressed through 11/23, then on the upswing.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (11/16) indicates no real change from the last update with warm anomalies holding, extending the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline at 1.5 degs C higher than normal or more. This remains good news . In short, the Kelvin wave that hit Central America nearly a month ago has manifest itself at the surface in warmer waters across the length of the tropical Pacific, exactly what is required for a legitimate El Nino to develop.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to hold north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA, and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. A cool trail, the result of upwelling from Super Hurricane Rick, was evident off Central Mainland Mexico to Baja. This overall warmer water signature remains not not anything exceptional, but clearly is a moderate El Nino. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of water temps and areal coverage and is only building on that position. 

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field).  We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality.  The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.    

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look favorable. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  A core of 2 deg warmer than normal sub-surface water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moved east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and continued growing as of 10/18 at 160W.  Data on 10/20 depicted intensification with temps pushing solidly 4 degrees C above normal. And as of 10/22 that anomaly looked to be broaching the 5 degree mark and was holding if not expanding on 10/25. On 10/26 it was confirmed at 5 degrees above normal and racing east, much faster than previous Kelvin Waves and located at 145W , and then 135W on 10/29 and 125W on 10/31 with 4 degree anomalies extending the whole was back to the dateline. On 11/3 the Kelvin Wave built yet more, with temps to 6 degrees above normal at 130W with the leading edge at 125W, holding on 11/5. By 11/8 the 6 degree anomalies had expanded with the leading edge still at 125W. On 11/14 temps dipped to 5 deg C in the core of the Kelvin wave, but expanded in coverage and moved east with the leading edge at 110W and the core at 125W. This waves modeled to 120W on 11/16 and holding strength. This remains a very solid Kelvin Wave, and large in areal coverage too, extending 3600 nmiles miles long. This sub-surface temperature wave is the result of a prolonged persistent  westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and continued into 11/5. It is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador possibly late November (previous forecast for December). This should have a significant positive impact enhancing the existing warm pool when it hits Central America.  

On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline.  And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline.  But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in place to the dateline and east to about Hawaii fading some into 10/20 but still light west winds were west of the dateline and anomalies east of there. Then on 1021 another batch of fully blowing west winds were in-play with solid anomalies to 160W (south of Hawaii) and almost to 140W, making further eastward progress than anything so far this El Nino event. By 10/24 that pattern continued if not intensified with fully blowing west winds to the dateline a solid anomalies to 140W and maybe even more. And on 10/26 the pattern continued, with anomalies pushing even further eastward to near 130W. On 10/29 full blowing west winds and anomalies continued as documented above.  This put anomalies over almost the entire equatorial Pacific.  Impressive. And on 10/31 the pattern continued with weak west winds in the west and anomalies all the way to 110W, basically covering the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. finally on 11/2 the westward blowing winds died on the far West Pacific as the Inactive Phased took control there. But anomalous west winds continued from the dateline almost the whole way into Ecuador through 11/5. But this is likely the end of this event. In fact on 11/7 only the faintest hint of westerly anomalies existed mainly south of Hawaii. And by 11/10 only neural/normal winds were in control and holding through 11/16. Interesting, but one would expect to see easterly anomalies with the advent of the Inactive Phase, but that is not happening as of 11/16, and the Inactive Phase is already fading if not gone. This is great news cause it's all downhill from here. All this suggests a significant eastward propagation of warm water is in-play and remains very good news for the development of El Nino. Again, this is classic El Nino symptoms. This is the first such event for this El Nino. For almost 2 months (since 9/8) a continuous moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma, Melor and Nepartak, that flow was enhanced.  At this time all these anomalies appear to be consolidating the resulting warm waters into one strong Kelvin Wave, the one currently pushing east from the dateline (see above). This one is expected to reinforce if not deepen the warm anomalies on the surface over the equator.  

El Nino will survive with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the late Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty.  In short, all the best models aren't exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.   

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch is to develop.   

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Add a STORMSURF Buoy Forecast to your Google Homepage. Click Here: Add to Google
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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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