On Sunday (11/4) Northern CA surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lazy. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high with some bigger sets. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was chest to nearly head high. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high with some near chest high sets. South Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was chest high with best break 2 ft overhead. The South Shore was waist to chest high. The East Shore was waist high.
North/Central California was receiving the tail end of swell originating from the dateline to Gulf of Alaska region. Southern California was getting a mix of small dateline swell mixed with more powerful bit's of southern hemi swell originating off New Zealand. Hawaii's North Shore was getting a smattering of swell coming from the dateline and new windswell building from just north of the Islands. Small east windswell generated by trades continued on the East Shore. Small energy coming from the southern hemi was fading along the South Shore, but not for long. The big story this week is building southern hemi swell coming from a short lived but intense storm that was due south of Hawaii early last week. Solid late season significant class summertime swell is expected pushing into Hawaii late Sunday with some gusto for Monday. California to see signs of this swell by Tuesday AM with solid swell by Wednesday. This is likely the last shot for the summer so for those of you that are set up for this one, go at it. As this swell is fading a new gale pattern is forecast to start building weakly over the dateline pushing into the Gulf of Alaska. Possible solid swell for late next weekend in California if this develops as forecast, but that's very far from a reality at this early date. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (11/4) for the North Pacific indicated a solid batch of 170 kt winds ridging towards the dateline, then fading fast just over it and diving south towards Hawaii, but with no energy at all. A weak pattern was over the East Pacific. No clear support for surface level low pressure development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours things to change dramatically with the ridge over the dateline weakening and dipping more into a weak trough pattern there with winds to 190 kts by Tuesday (11/6) with secondary energy starting to reach into the Gulf, though a ridge to still hold over the US West Coast. Weak support for surface level low pressure development, but no real troughiness is forecast, which will not help the situation any. Beyond 72 hours this pocket of wind energy is to push towards the Gulf by Thursday (11/8) with winds 170 kts flowing flat west to east, pushing over the North California coast Friday night. At that time a solid flow of winds is to stretched flat from Japan to California on the 40N line. A solid trough is forecast setting up in the Gulf Sunday with winds 160 kts. Possible better support for surface level gale development possible.
At the surface today weak high pressure was in control of the East Pacific at 1024 mbs protecting the US and Canadian West Coasts. Weak low pressure at 1008 mbs was trying to set up in the far West Pacific but was far from impressive. No wind of interest was associated with this low yet. Trades at 15-20 kts were still pushing towards Hawaii generating some form of weak easterly windswell for East Shores, but very weak low pressure just north of the Islands was holding it off and generating 25 kt north winds by itself, increasing the likelihood of northerly windswell for the North and East Shores. Over the next 72 hours a weak high pressure pattern and calm winds to remain in control in the East Pacific while a gale pattern tries to develop over the dateline. A broader low is to be situated in the Bering Sea driving a series of smaller low pressure systems to rotate west to east under it pushing through the North Pacific. The net result is to be a broad but fragmented and inconsistent area of 25-30 kts west winds pushing over the dateline late Sunday into Tuesday (11/16) generating 18-20 ft seas targeting both Hawaii and California, but Hawaii doing better only because of their closer proximity to the fetch. Small weak swell possible late Wednesday into Thursday (11/8) for the North Shore with luck. Nothing of interest for the US West coast though.
Typhoon Peipah was positioned just off the coast of the northern Philippines with winds 65 kts (bare minimal typhoon strength) and moving inland to the west. A continuing track to the west and southwest is projected with Peipah moving into South Vietnam late Thursday (11/8), re-gaining hurricane strength.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/4) weak low pressure was off Southern Ca and weak high pressure as off Oregon setting up an offshore flow over the northern half of the state. The low is to fade and the high weakly hold on by Monday with a near calm wind pattern forecast through the workweek all locations. But a building low pressure regime is forecast for the Gulf pushing dangerously close to the San Francisco area Friday on into the weekend. No threat is expected south of say Monterey Bay though for the weekend.
Sundays jetstream charts (11/4) for the South Pacific indicated a strong ridge building just east of New Zealand bound for Antarctica likely suppressing surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that ridge is to crash hard into the Ross Ice Shelf and pushing into interior Antarctica then slowly fading. Beyond 72 hours a bit of a trough is to try and rebuild under New Zealand late week, but it's not to have much energy to work with likely minimizing any support for surface level low pressure development.
At the oceans surface no wind or pressure patterns of interest were occurring. Over the next 72 hours a weak gale is to try and push east under New Zealand Tuesday (11/6) generating 40 kts winds and 29 ft seas in the evening at 53S 173E for 12 hours. Maybe some small background swell to result for Hawaii if this occurs, which seems unlikely.
Central Pacific Storm #5S
On Monday AM (10/29) a new low pressure system was building fast with pressure 960 mbs and in close proximity to a 1036 mbs high over New Zealand, generating a moderate fetch of confirmed winds at 60 kts winds at 50S 162W aimed 25 degrees east of the 182 degree path to Hawaii and right up the 203 degree path to California unshadowed by Tahiti. Seas were on the increase with winds acting on an already agitated ocean surface. By evening pressure dropped to 948 mbs with 60-65 kt winds confirmed over a solid area at 43S 155W aimed 25 degrees east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii and right up the 202 degree path to California. Actually there was 720 nmiles of straight line fetch grater than 40 kts with most 50-60 kts. Seas built to 37 ft at 49S 158W. The Jason-1 satellite passed over the edge of this system and reported seas of 35 ft, right on-track with the ave models.
This system was fading fast Tuesday AM (10/30) with residual 35-40 kt south winds up to 42S 147W. Seas were modeled at 39 ft at 45S 150W. The Jason-1 satellite passed over the leading edge of this system and reported seas of 38 ft, right on-track with the models. Still 40 kts winds to hold into the evening aimed due north at 50S 145W aimed right up the 190 degree path to California, then dissipating late. Seas from previous fetch fading from 36 ft at 42S 145W but mostly just the decaying energy from previous days fetch.
This swell started hitting Hawaii on Sunday AM (11/4) just as expected with pure swell 2.6 ft @ 18 secs and most energy in the 20 sec range. This is right on track with expectations.
This was a very short lived system, but was concentrated with high winds acting essentially on a consistent part of the oceans surface. Sea heights were not over the top, but were solid given the short life of this storm and were confirmed twice by the Jason-1 satellite. Current data suggests significant class swell is likely for both California and Hawaii and much more for Tahiti.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting late Sunday (11/4) near 9 AM with period 20 secs and size coming up reaching 3.6 ft @ 18 secs late (6.5 ft faces with sets to 8.5 ft at top spots). Swell to start peaking Monday morning at 4.3 ft @ 17 secs (7 ft faces with top spots to 9 ft). Swell holding solid through the day. Swell holding at 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs Tuesday early (6 ft faces with best spots to 8 ft) simmering down through the day with period dropping to 14 sec by 8 PM. Swell fading from 3.6 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft faces) Wednesday (11/7). Swell Direction: 180-185 degrees
Southern CA: Swell arrival expected starting late Monday with period 21 secs but likely not rideable. On Tuesday (11/6) swell to become well rideable through inconsistent pushing 2.6 ft @ 19 secs (5 ft faces) midday and building to 3.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunset (6.5 ft faces with best break to 8 ft). Swell to peak Wednesday at sunrise as period drops to 17 secs. Swell 3.7-3.9 ft @ 17 secs (6.0-6.5 ft with best breaks to 8 ft). Swell holding through the day. Size trickling down on Thursday (11/8) with swell 3.7 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft faces with best breaks to near 7 ft), fading to 14 secs after dark. Solid 14 sec residuals expected Friday (11/9) at 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.5 ft faces) early and drifting down. Swell Direction 201-205 degrees
Northern CA: Swell arrival expected starting late Monday (11/5) with period 22 secs but likely not noticeable. By Tuesday (11/6) sunrise rideable but inconsistent swell of 2.3 ft @ 20 secs (4.5 ft faces) is expected building to 3.3 ft @ 18 secs at sunset (6 ft faces with best break to 8 ft). Swell to be peaking at sunrise Wednesday (11/7) with swell 3.7-3.9 ft @ 17 secs (6.5 ft faces with best breaks to 8 ft) and holding through most of the day through period drifting towards 16 secs. Solid swell to continue Thursday (11/8) with swell 3.6-3.8 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft faces with sets to near 7 ft) settling down as the day progresses. Still decent swell to continue Friday (11/9) with swell fading from 3.3 ft @ 14 secs early (4.5 ft faces). Swell Direction 196-201 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest the low pressure pattern forecast for the dateline is to move east to the Gulf and start intensifying Thursday (11/8) with the core of the low in the far southeastern Bering Sea but with a broad fetch of 30-35 kts west-northwest winds setting up over most of the Gulf aimed right at Southern Oregon and Northern CA through Friday. Seas building to 25-27 ft late Friday (11/9). Also theoretically a little low is to quickly wrap up right ahead of this fetch too early Thursday generating 35-40 kts winds and 22 ft seas for 24 hours aimed well at the same area. This to send a pulse of 12-13 sec period swell southeastward for early in the weekend with similar size energy following right behind for later in the weekend from the broader fetch behind it. Things to slack off into Sunday in the Gulf but not out completely while a new low tries to wrap up off Kamchatka. But odds low of anything much developing from it based on the projected jetstream configuration.
Beyond 72 hours a series of small gales are to try and push east under New Zealand, all with very limited success. At this time we're speculating none with last long enough to have any real swell production chances. Will monitor.
Details to follow...
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) , Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) , Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) , Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table