On Sunday (10/28) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and clean. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high. South Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were thigh high at the better breaks. The North Shore of Oahu was head high. The South Shore was waist to maybe chest high. The East Shore was a foot or two overhead.
North/Central California was getting weak windswell and even that was fading. Southern California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii's North Shore was scheduled to start getting some dateline swell later today. East windswell mixed with residual swell from the Gulf of Alaska was pushing into the East Shore. And small southern hemi swell from New Zealand was pushing into the South Shore. Nothing of interest was going on meteorologically right now. A second small swell from under New Zealand is pushing north towards Hawaii and a bit towards California to fill in behind the existing southern hemi swell currently hitting Hawaii. And a gale generated swell over the North Pacific pushing towards Hawaii is scheduled to arrive today (Sun). Another weak gale is schedule to follow. But in all the pattern has really fallen apart and is not schedule to get decently organized for at least the next week. Make the most of anything you can get. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Sundays jetstream charts (10/28) for the North Pacific indicated a kinda fragmented flow tracking riding over the Aleutians near the dateline then dipping just slightly in the the Gulf of Alaska but not offering any real support for even low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours the weak trough in the Gulf is to push inland over Canada while the fragmented ridge over the dateline pushes east, not offering any hope. Beyond 72 hours some solid energy is to push off Japan but it's to form a ridge, not a trough, and not support low pressure development. By next weekend solid energy at 150+ kts is to be over the width of the North Pacific, but all flowing basically flat just south of the Aleutians. There's some suggestion of winds building to 190 kts off Japan the end of next weekend with something that almost resembles a trough trying to organize near the dateline, but that's purely a guess by the models.
At the surface today moderate high pressure was in control of the Pacific from the dateline eastward. A solid low at 980 mbs was trying to organize off Japan fueled by tropical moisture with winds modeled at 40 kts aimed somewhat towards Hawaii, looking almost halfway decent. Otherwise trades where blowing into Hawaii at 20-25 kts generating localized windswell there along Eastern Shores. Over the next 72 hours the Japan low is to race northeast almost to the dateline Sunday evening with winds 40-45 kts but aimed mostly northeast and then to the Gulf of Alaska Monday morning (10/29) and holding. The problem here is it is to be moving so fast it is not to get any decent traction on the oceans surface. By Monday night it's to be pushing over Alaska with no fetch aimed at the out forecast area. At this point it's pretty doubtful any swell of interest will result from this system, though the models had previously indicated it was to be a big swell producer (as little as 3 days ago). Maybe some small swell to push into Central CA starting late Thursday (11/1) at 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft faces) up to 4 ft @ 12 secs Friday morning (10/2) making 5 ft faces). Swell Direction 295-300 degrees
Otherwise trades to continue flowing over Hawaii at near 20 kts generating weak short period windswell along Eastern Shores.
Gale for Hawaii's East Shore
On Thursday (10/25) a strong high pressure system at 1040 mbs was locked in the eastern Gulf of Alaska ridging into Washington and setting up a pressure gradient over Cape Mendocino CA generating a small area of confirmed north winds at 40 kts generating building windswell along the Central CA coast. The Cape Mendocino fetch held into Friday with winds 40 kts and seas building to 23 ft while making an unusual move and pushing southeast off California tracking right towards Hawaii. Winds slowly faded through Saturday AM (10/27) down to 30 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 35N 135W or 1400 nmiles northeast of Oahu before effectively dissipating late in the evening. The swell vector was just a bit south of Hawaii but not too far off the mark. Possible northeasterly swell to arrive on Oahu's Northeast Shore late Monday building to 7 ft @ 12 secs ( 8 ft faces) then fading from 7 ft @ 11 secs Tuesday AM (10/30) with 7.5 ft faces from 55-70 degrees and mixed with copious local windswell.
On Tuesday (10/23) a 988 mb low pressure system was trying to develop over the northern Kuril's but hadn't pushed out into exposed waters of the Northwest Pacific. That low tracked east through the Bering Sea generating a broad fetch of 30-35 kts winds in the Northwestern Pacific free and clear of obstruction from the Aleutians and aimed well at Hawaii down the 314 degree great circle path by Wednesday AM (10/24). Seas built to 21 ft starting near 45N 165E. The low tracked east though the Bering Sea while the fetch tracked east also free-and-clear in the North Pacific Thursday (10/25) pushing over the dateline Friday (10/26). Reinforcing winds pushed south over the Aleutians and into the main swell generation area reaching 35 kts Friday AM, though mostly holding in the 30 kt range. Seas built to 23 ft at 47N 175W at that time swinging more towards the US West Coast and less towards the Islands. By Saturday the fetch and low faded out in the far Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 19 ft at 47N 162W. In all this is was not anything resembling an impressive system and was really quite mediocre. But it held together for 4 days and was in relatively close proximity to the Hawaiian Islands. The net result is some form of 13-14 sec period swell reaching Hawaii starting late Sunday (10/28) with swell 5 ft @ 13 secs (6-7 ft faces) holding Monday into Tuesday (4.6 ft @ 12 secs - 5.5 ft faces). before fading out Wednesday. Energy is also forecast pushing into Central California on late Tuesday (10/30) with swell 3.7 ft @ 14 secs (5 ft faces) continuing Wednesday at 4.5 ft @ 12 secs ( 5 ft faces) then fading out.
No systems of interest were being tracked.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Sunday (10/28) a weak pressure pattern was in play off the California coast with no windswell of interest occurring. Monday-Wednesday (10/31) a light flow to continue with no real defining pressure pattern suggested nearshore, though high pressure to be building well off the coast. It is expected to start influencing the local scene by later Wednesday starting to generate a northwesterly flow focused over Pt Conception, then moving to Cape Mendocino Thursday reaching 30 kts there and starting to generate the usual summer time local windswell. Winds to reach 35 kts on Friday with the wind itself pushing away from the coast and solid local windswell impacting the Central CA coast, fading out Saturday (11/3).
Sundays jetstream charts (10/28) for the South Pacific indicated a decent trough set up southeast of New Zealand with winds 150 kts pushing well to the northeast. Good support for surface level low pressure development. A ridge was suppressing development in the Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours this area to only get better defined with 140 kts winds aimed due north towards Hawaii and Tahiti, then getting undercut and shut down on Wednesday. Good support for surface level low pressure development until then. Beyond 72 hours a weak zonal/split flow to set up with no support for gale development indicated.
At the oceans surface a new storm is to form southeast of New Zealand on Monday AM (10/29) with pressure 960 mbs and in close proximity to a 1036 mbs high over New Zealand, generating a tiny fetch of 60 kts winds at 52S 163W aimed north right at Hawaii. By evening pressure to drop to 952 mbs with 65 kt winds aver a small area at 47S 155W aimed 35 degrees east of the 180 degree path to Hawaii and right up the 200 degree path to California. Seas building to 40 ft @ 48S 155W. This system to be fading fast Tuesday AM (10/30) with residual 45 kts south winds at 50S 145W and sinking southeast. Still 45 kts winds to hold into the evening aimed due north at 50S 140W aimed right up the 190 degree path to California, then dissipating late. Seas from previous fetch building to 42 ft at 45S 150W. Residual seas fading from 37 ft at 42S 145W, mainly just the decaying energy from previous days fetch. If this develops as forecast some form of near significant class swell seems likely for California. Sideband energy expected for Hawaii. Tahiti to get slammed. Will monitor.
New Zealand Micro-Gale
On Sunday (10/21) morning a small 972 mb gale developed under New Zealand with winds at 45-50 kts and a infinitesimal area of 30 ft seas indicated at 50S 170E. There was maybe 240 nmiles of straight-line fetch aimed at Hawaii. This system pushed northeast in the evening with winds confirmed by the QuikSCAT satellite down to 40-45 kts with seas up to 37 ft at 49S 175E. Residual 40 kts winds were fading at 42S 168W Monday morning with seas down to 30 ft at 46S 177W, then gone by nightfall. A decent bout of late season utility class swell is expected mainly for Hawaii starting Sunday with period 18 secs peaking Monday (10/29) with swell 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft faces) from 195-200 degrees.
Southwest Pacific Gale
A new gale was building under New Zealand Wednesday (10/24). By evening pressure was 964 mbs tracking east from under New Zealand moving into the Southwest Pacific. Winds were confirmed at 45-50 kts at 53S 168E moving into the Hawaiian swell window. 29 ft seas were modeled at 54S 152E aimed mostly east. On Thursday AM (10/25) the low was clear in the Hawaiian swell window with 45 kts winds confirmed aimed northeast at 52S 177E aimed 30 degrees east of the 200 degree great circle path to Hawaii. 32 ft seas were modeled at 52S 172E. In the evening the gale held at 50S 180W with 40-45 kt winds still aimed 30 degrees east of the 195 degree great circle path to Hawaii. A small area of 37 ft seas were modeled at 50S 180W. Friday AM (10/26) pressure was 956 mbs but winds were fading from 35 kts at 49S 170W with seas fading from 32 ft at 47S 170W. Some form of 30-35 kt winds persisted in this area not moving too much to the east, but not imparting much longer period energy to the ocean. 25 ft seas continued near 55S 170W spurting up to 28 ft Sunday AM (10/28), then fading out. This developed pretty close to the modeled projections maybe just a shade weaker. In all some form of solid utility class summertime swell seems likely pushing into the Hawaiian Islands with period near 18 secs starting late Wednesday (10/31) reaching 3 ft @ 17 secs (5 ft faces) late Thursday (11/1) and 3 ft @ 16 secs Friday (4.5-5.0 ft faces) from 200 degrees. Residuals into Saturday. Utility class swell for California possible starting roughly Saturday (11/3) peaking Sunday (11/4) at 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces). Swell Direction: 215 degrees.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest another gale is to try and develop over the dateline on Wednesday (10/31) racing towards the Gulf and pushing northeast into the Bering Sea. A limited fetch of 35-40 kt winds might take aim on California before pushing north over the Aleutians for 24 hours, but even that is unlikely. Beyond a very fragmented pattern with no clear outcome is forecast, likely suggesting that no swell of interest is to be generated.
Beyond 72 hours the South Pacific to settle into lake mode. No swell producing systems of interest are modeled.
Details to follow...
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) , Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) , Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) , Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table