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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: October 20, 2009 8:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 3.8 - California & 2.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/19 thru Sun 10/25
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #1 Bound For California
Late Season Southern Hemi Swell Continues Too

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (10/20) North and Central California was getting more northwest windswell coming from the Gulf of Alaska in the head high plus range with southern hemi swell pushing chest high at top south facing breaks with northwest winds on control. Southern California has some thigh high northwest windswell up north with northwest wind in control and building southern hemi swell at waist to chest high but pushing head high at better breaks down south but also pretty wind beaten. Hawaii's North Shore had weak northwest windswell at thing high and reasonably clean. The East Shore had waist high plus locally generated east windswell and chopped. The South Shore remained the call with Swell #5S still producing waves at waist to chest high and some bigger sets and pretty clean.   

The forecast for North and Central CA is for Swell #1 from the Western Gulf to start arriving on Thursday and providing a pretty good pulse of size and period, fading on Friday but then getting reinforced a bit Saturday and Sunday, providing something well rideable size-wise through the weekend. Local winds will be another story though. Southern California is to also get a taste of the Gulf swell on Thursday, following the same profile as the north, dropping slightly Friday then holding through the weekend. A bit too far from the north then to be optimal though.  The North Shore of Hawaii is to see a taste of the Western Gulf swell on Wednesday holding into early Thursday (1-2 ft overhead), then with perhaps reinforcing energy Friday bringing it back to head high to 1 ft overhead, then drifting out over the weekend. The East Shore is to continue with easterly windswell at waist to chest high for the foreseeable future. The South Shore is to dropping off from waist high on Wednesday, descending into flatness after Thursday.

Longterm the Active Phase of the MJO remains in-control and pulsing at the moment helping to enhance the odds for storm development in the weeks ahead. Storm #1, the first significant class one of the 2009/2010 season has produced swell pushing towards the US West Coast. Actually it is the 2nd of the season if you count the swell that produced opening day at Pipe few weeks back. On Monday and Tuesday it tracked through the Western Gulf generating up to 60 kts winds and 36 ft seas over a small area aimed mostly east, favoring the US West coast with sideband energy is expected down into Hawaii. After that a series of weak follow-on gales are forecast for the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska generating limited 25 ft seas, mostly even out of the swell window for Central CA. Still some north angled energy to push south for the weekend.  A quieter pattern is to follow.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
On Tuesday (10/20) the North Pacific jetstream continued running essentially flat on the 39N latitude  with a weak trough trying to organize on the dateline with 150 kt winds barely flowing into it. It was providing limited support for surface level gale development. The jet was rushing onshore over North CA  then dropping into a trough over Utah and Nevada. Over the next 72 hrs that dateline trough is to remain weak pushing slightly east to a point north of Hawaii late wednesday (10/21) the dissipate.  But a healthy flow is to continue in the jet at 160 kts over the dateline, pushing flat east then ridging just a bit off the CA coast through Friday.  This suggests high pressure off California and maybe limited support for gale development over the dateline, but even that is doubtful. Beyond 72 hours the same pattern is expected to hold with decent energy flowing flat off Japan barely troughing on the dateline at 140-150 kts (through Tues (10/27) then slightly ridging off CA and pushing flat onshore over Oregon. Limited support for gale development in the Western Gulf lifting northeast.  

At the surface on Tuesday Storm #1 was in the Northeast ern Gulf of Alaska generating 45 kt winds and seas above 30 ft (see details below). A second gale was trying to get legs on the dateline producing 35+ kt winds aimed decently at Hawaii with 20 ft seas at 37N 175W. This should set up minimal westerly swell for Friday (10/23) there. Otherwise weak high pressure at 1020 mbs was off Southern CA ridging northeast into Central CA helping to set up north winds there with trades into Hawaii.  Tropical systems Liput was off the Northern Philippines and Hurricane Rick was moving towards Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours Storm #1 is to fade pretty fast in the Northeastern Gulf with the follow on gale right behind it, only generating  35 kt southwest winds while it races northeast to the northern Gulf, getting better organized there on Friday (10/23) with 40 kt winds and 27 ft seas, but basically out of the swell window for anyone but the Pacific Northwest up into Canada.  


Gulf Storm #1
A new gale organized on the dateline Sunday AM (10/18) with 30 kt west winds modeled at 35N 174W. As usual, the models did no pick-up the subtleties of what is really going on, with the QuikSCAT satellite confirming winds at 50 kts in it's west quadrant at 38N 168W at 10 AM. This fetch was building Sunday PM and wrapping into the south quadrant with 55-60 kt winds confirmed over a small area in the storms south quadrant at 40N 164W targeting Hawaii initially down the 336 degree path and the US west coast up the 288 degree path (NCal). Seas building fast, likely at 30 ft even though the models did not depict it (only 20 ft at 38N 167W). To support that premise, the Jason-1 satellite passed over the tail end of the fetch at 06Z and confirmed seas at 23.6 ft (10 reading average) where the model suggested barely 18 ft (6 ft difference).  

By Monday AM (10/19) the storm was lifting northeast with 50-55 kt with some barbs to 60 kts blowing from the west in-place in the storms south quadrant at 42N 159W aimed right up the 290 degree path to Central CA.  Seas were modeled at 30 ft at 40N 159W, but that was likely low. In the evening fetch unexpectedly and drastically backed off to 40 kts over a moderate area at 43N 155W all aimed due east or right up the 292 degree path to Central CA on up into Oregon. A small but decent area of 36 ft seas were modeled at 43N 154W (296 deg NCal). The Jason-1 satellite passed over the northeast sector of the fetch at 6Z and confirmed seas at 35.2 ft with a peak reading to 39.7 ft where the models suggested 35 ft seas.  So the model was right on track. 

Tuesday AM (10/20) a rejuvenating fetch of 40-45 kt west winds were confirmed at 45N 152W but seas were modeled down to 33 ft seas at 45N 150W targeting the Pacific Northwest and points north of there and NCal up the 296 degree path. In the evening a moderate fetch of 45 kt west winds is to hold at 46N 147W aimed right up the 302 degree path to the east (NCal) resulting in 36 ft seas at 46N 147W pushing 25 degree east of the 302 degree route into Central CA and 30 ft seas on the 296 degree path targeting the Pacific Northwest up into British Columbia.

On Wednesday AM fading 35 kt fetch is forecast at 47N 145W targeting only Central British Columbia down into Washington with 33 ft seas still occurring at 48N 143W. This system to dissipate after that.

Just when you think you know what's going on nature decides to throw a curve ball.  In this case, the storm backed off earlier than expected, resulting in lower than expected sea heights. Not too far off the mark, but definitely down a few feet from what was hoped for. Also earlier the models depicted their usual inability to detect the early ramp-up of winds and sudden increase in seas. The model typically runs 6-12 hours behind reality. Regardless, this system had been on the charts for almost a week before it formed and is now pushing right along doing more or less what was advertised only a little waiver in strength on the down side. Certainly a swell will develop, but continued monitoring is required to produce a final surf estimate. Still some degree of swell with a little size for the US West Coast and maybe even some limited sideband energy for the Hawaiian Islands should be expected. It is not a large system and is not overtly powerful from a historical perspective, but is a nice little early season storm (if 60 kt winds are considered garden variety). But from an El Nino perspective, this is run of the mill. Utility class swell is likely for Hawaii with perhaps something more for the US West Coast.   

Hawaii:  Expect swell arrival before sunrise Wednesday (10/21) with period 13 sec and size building to 5.9 ft @ 12 secs (7 ft faces) mid-morning.  This is a highly speculative guess.  It is equally possible size could be either bigger or smaller, depending upon how much energy actually pushes south to towards the Islands.  11 sec residuals expected on Thurs (10/22) at 5 ft @ 11 secs (6 ft faces). Swell Direction:  335+ degs

North CA:  Expect swell arrival on Wed very late afternoon with period 20 secs and size small but building fast. The swell is to peak through the night with swell 9-10 ft at 17 secs (15-17 ft faces).  Swell dropping to 9 ft @ 15-16 secs (13-14 ft faces with sets to 15 ft) by sunrise Thursday (10/22) and slowly swinging more northerly. Period down to 14 secs just after sunset. Swell Direction:  298-302 degrees.  13 sec residuals expected on Friday.  

Southern CA:  Expect swell arrival on Wed at 11 PM with period 20 secs and size small but building.  Swell to start peaking at 4.0-4.5 ft @ 17 secs (7-8 ft faces) near 9 AM Thursday (10/22) from 291-300 degrees and holding through the day.  Swell dropping to 3.5-4.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.5-6.5 ft faces) through the evening and slowly swinging more northerly. Period down to 14-15 secs near sunrise Friday (10/23) with swell 3.0-3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (4-5 ft faces at exposed breaks). Swell Direction:  300-308 degrees.  

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday a weak high pressure at 1022 mbs was centered 700 nmiles west of Southern CA ridging northeast into Central CA resulting in 15 kt north winds near Pt Conception south into the Channel Island and Baja. By Wednesday (10/21) the high is to push further northeast with north winds building over all of Central CA at 15-20 kts and even making in roads into North CA late.  The high and associated north winds are to continue Thursday at 15-20 kts a bit off the coast but likely having much impact nearshore, then maybe breaking some Friday AM, but holding through the weekend. Perhaps some relief Monday, but then it's to return Tuesday.  This to add a fair amount of nearshore bump to whatever swell is hitting along the North and Central CA coast during this timeframe. Southern CA is to remain mostly protected Wednesday onwards. . 

 

Tropics
With the MJO in the Active Phase, net tropical activity is up:

Super Hurricane Rick peaked between 2-4 UTC on Sun (10/18) or at 5-7 PM Sat with sustained winds 155 kts (180 mph). and positioned 450 nmiles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas Baja, Mexico. No fetch was in the Southern CA swell window. Rick continued on a near northerly course, perhaps just barely moving into the Southern CA swell window for breaks west of Pt Dume on Monday AM (10/19) at 17.6N 111.1W with winds 140 kts (160 mph), still at Cat 5 status. This would put it 1000 nmiles away from Pt Dume. But with the track continuing almost due north if not veering more northeast, only about 12 hours of exposure are expected between Pt Dume and Pt Conception. Assuming a period of 15 secs, expect swell arrival 43 hrs later, or Wednesday (10/21) at 1 AM and continuing into late morning. Swell Direction to be 153 degrees.

Super Typhoon Lupit was located roughly 600 nmiles east of the Northern Philippines on Sunday (10/18) with sustained winds 130 kts (150 mph) drifting northeast, effectively directionless. A turn back to the west occurred 24 hours later with Lupit accelerating some and starting to loose a little strength. It remains forecast to inch over the northern tip of the Philippines late on Thurs (10/22) with winds down to 80 kts. Lupit is to plod west moving over land that got drenched from Tropical Storm Parma just a week or so earlier. There is some remote odds for small swell to be radiating east towards Hawaii and California from this system Saturday and Sunday (10/18) terminating at 17.6N 134E, due to it's intense strength and track to the northeast. Possible arrival in Hawaii from 281 degrees on Sat AM (10/24), and NCal from 294 degrees on Mon PM (10/26) assuming a period of 17 secs. Size to be tiny through, so this is more s physics exercise than anything. Lupit is to drift north through the weekend and pass over Taiwan dissipating on Monday (10/26). 

 

South Pacific

Overview
At the surface on Tuesday (10/20) no swell producing fetch was occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours. 

New Zealand Gale- Storm 5S
A gale low quickly build under New Zealand Friday AM with 45-50 kts southwest winds at 58S 165E. By late Friday (10/9) with 45-50 kt southwest winds at 59S 163E producing 30-31 ft seas at 60S 160E, barely off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf.

By Saturday AM (10/10) 35-40 kt southwest winds were fading at 55S 178E pushing east-northeast resulting in a solid sized area of 37 ft seas at 55S 172E (from previous day fetch), then fading from 32 ft in the evening at 53S 178W. The highest seas were on the 214 degree path to SCal and partially shadowed by Tahiti and on the 213 degree path to NCal and totally unshadowed. They were on the 196 degree path to Hawaii.

A fade was occurring Sunday AM (10/11) as the fetch was fading from 40 kts at 45S 172W. 35 ft seas were modeled at 48S 175W unshadowed for NCal but shadowed for SCal on the 213 degree path. In the evening residual 40 kt winds are forecast with 35 ft seas at 45S 165W from the 209 degree path to CA and shadowed for all regions, and the 187 degree path to HI, then fading out.

No Jason-1 satellite passes occurred to verify seas heights other than one early in the systems life (Fri AM) and it was exactly in-line with the models. A good shot of moderate significant class southern hemi swell (17 secs) seems likely for Tahiti and Hawaii with decent but non-significant class size for US West Coast in the days ahead.

SCal: More energy is to be holding on Wednesday (10/21) with swell 2.0-2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces) , then heading down on Thursday with swell 2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3 ft faces).  A nice little run of southern hemi swell if it is not overrun by north swell from the Gulf. Swell Direction 213-214 degrees 

NCal: More energy is to move in on Wednesday (10/21) with swell 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), then heading down on Thursday with swell 2 ft @ 15 secs (3 ft faces).  Swell Direction 211-212 degrees 

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another fetch of 35 kt west winds are forecast tracking northeast up into the the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska Sat/Sun (10/25) driven by high pressure building off the Central CA coast at 1024 mbs, resulting in 27 ft seas, but again mostly out of the swell window expected for Northern CA up into the Pacific Northwest. Weaker energy to follow the same course early next week, but no immediate development is suggested from it. In short, possible swell for the Pacific Northwest into the weekend and early next week, then settling down. 


MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (10/20) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) continued in the Active Phase, and strongly so. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index remaining hard negative with the Daily SOI index at -32.30, the 4th day in a row at that magnitude attributable to low pressure under Tahiti and high pressure over Darwin Aus . (13 days in a row solidly negative and 26 consecutive days nearly negative/not positive). The 30 day average was falling to -7.32 and the 90 average was down to -3.28.  This continues looking more like what would be considered real a El Nino state. The SOI index is likely to continue heading down for the days ahead driven by the Active Phase of the MJO.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated light westerly anomalies in the Western Pacific over the dateline and extending east to a point southeast of Hawaii. Mild eastern anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase of the MJO continued building south of India. The Active Phase is to continue in the Pacific tracking east in 10/29, with a dead neutral pattern setting up after that through 11/8. The inactive phase is to not make it even to the West Pacific. The current configuration and strength suggest that the MJO signal does in-fact die during El Nino events. Will monitor more. Our belief is that the mid-to-late October timeframe still looks like a good window for support of North Pacific Storm development, with the focus moving slowly east from the West Pacific tropics towards the Central Pacific (Hawaii and the Western Gulf of Alaska). 

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (10/19) indicates more steady changes over the past month, with the area of warmer than normal water expanding it's grip on the equator building on the dateline and pushing east into Central/South America with temps holding at 2.0-3.0 deg C above normal in the east. This is suggestive of a weak to moderate El Nino.  The expanse of the warmer waters continues to build north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA - the result of a local north wind/high pressure), and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. And it is build some some south of the dateline too. If anything, this area is looking even stronger than even last update last week.Effectively there is a broad wide triangle of warmer than normal water extending from just south of San Diego southwest just under Hawaii and on to the intersection of the equator and the dateline and even west of there now, then tracking southeast on to Northern Peru.  This is not anything exceptional, but clearly a moderate El Nino. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of water temps and areal coverage and is only slowly building on that position. Cooler than normal waters we had been monitoring off Africa have been mostly wiped out.

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look most positive, better than a few days ago. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now.  We are still expecting to see surface water temperatures jump up in Oct off Central America as this Kelvin wave disperses there, feeding the developing warm water pool and fueling El Nino. The good news is that another core of 2 deg warm water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moving east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) and continued growing as of 10/18 at 160W.  Latest data on 10/20 depicts that intensification with temps pushing solidly 4 degrees C above normal. It is located at 157W pushing steadily east. This is a new  Kelvin Wave, one we'd been looking for associated with a persistent weak westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8-9/17. It  is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador late December, about at the peak of whatever El Nino will be in place for this winter. So all looks good for maintaining the existing warm pool for a while if not building it.  

On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in-play since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. This was good news. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline.  And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline.  But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in place to the dateline and east to about Hawaii fading some into 10/20 but still light west winds were west of the dateline and anomalies east of there. This remains very good news and is likely associated with the current new Active Phase of the MJO. Of much interest were the anomalies from climatological norms, with western anomalies blowing solidly in the region west of the dateline and now solid westerly anomalies were moving into the the region east of the dateline to a point south of Hawaii through 10/18, and then to 140W on 10/20.  This suggests the anomalous flow was making even more inroads towards the East Pacific. Again, this is classic El Nino symptoms. This is the first such event for this El Nino and if anything was on the upswing. It has been holding for a week now, likely qualifying it as a new and distinct Westerly Wind Burst.  For weeks now (since 9/8) a moderate westerly anomaly has been in-play from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma, Melor and Nepartak, that flow was enhanced.  At this time all these anomalies appear to be consolidating the resulting warm waters into one strong Kelvin Wave, the one currently pushing east from the dateline (see above). This one is expected to reinforce the Kelvin Wave currently impacting Central America. . 

At this time we are saying this developing El Nino is past the critical juncture and will survive in some fashion with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a weak to moderate one. NOAA's most recent update (10/8) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at a possible intensification (but not likely). A solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years. 

The next milestone we're monitoring is development of this Active Phase of the MJO occurring now (10/3). The models indicate it is moderate in strength and should hold for a few weeks. Also water temps need to hold if not build (as is happening now). Our thoughts are that El Nino might gain a little more strength, but not much, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news.  But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.    

See more details in the new  El Nino update.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch to develop.

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE Inside Mavericks Randy Cone Surfboards

Local Interest

Interview With Stormsurf:  The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing.  This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others.  See the full thing here:  Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process.  Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone.  Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.  

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

Free Stormsurf Stickers - Get your free stickers! - More details Here

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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