New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (10/13) North and Central California had full winter like south windswell and rain with south wind in abundance. Basically big chop and totally blownout. Abundant rain was falling with snow above 7000 ft. Kirkwood is considering opening later this week and the ground is covered at SugarBowl, Kirkwood and upper elevations at Squaw. 3.5 inches of rain occurred over the 12 hour period ending 7 PM in the SF Bay Area. Southern California was a tattered mess with waist high southerly windswell under the chop and south winds in effect. Hawaii's North Shore was getting limited northwest windswell from the Western Gulf at chest high and a bit raw but rideable with longer period element from Melor trying to sneak in underneath. The East Shore had wrap around northwest swell from the Western Gulf too at waist high or so with onshore winds. The South Shore was flat and clean.
The forecast for North and Central CA is for winds and rain to start backing off on Wednesday as swell from Melor when it reformed off the coast starts arriving late to double overhead, but still pretty ragged. Finally on Thursday wind is to settle down late with residual westerly swell from the gale off the coast still hitting at 7 ft @ 12 secs (8.5 ft face) with Melor swell coming from off Japan at 3 ft on the face. everything to be settling down after that with residual windswell in the 1 ft overhead range on Friday. Southern California is to have decent odds for swell from the local gale early Wednesday at 4.5 ft @ 13 secs (6 ft faces) dropping later and south wind fading, then Thursday at shoulder high (3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs). The North Shore of Hawaii is to see more swell from Melor when it was off Japan by Wednesday at 2 ft overhead fading from 1 ft overhead Thursday and dropping out from there . The East Shore is out of the picture. The South Shore is in no-mans land for the workweek but south swell is expected for the weekend.
Longterm the Active Phase of the MJO is in control and expected to help push things along in a good way. Swell for the extratropical remnants of Melor are starting to hit Hawaii expected to pick up some on Wed (10/14). The remnants of Melor have reorganized off the US West Coast Tues expected to generate 25 ft seas late setting up swell for Central CA Wed/Thurs with residuals into Friday and weak follow-on energy expected just off the coast Thurs/Fri setting up windswell through the weekend. Southern Ca to see a portion of this swell too. And the southern hemi has produced a decent gale generating 38 ft seas on Saturday (10/10) aimed well towards Hawaii and the US West Coast (unshadowed). Quite rideable southern hemi swell is expected for Hawaii by the weekend and California early the week beyond (Tues 10/20).
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
On Tuesday (10/13) the North Pacific jetstream was pretty solid with 120-130 kt winds flowing pretty flat from Japan into Central CA centered on the 40N latitude. A bit of a trough was centered just west of Central CA pushing onshore today offering meager support for gale development there. Otherwise no trough or ridges of interest were occurring. Over the next 72 hrs a new trough is to form north of Hawaii on Wed (10/14) with 140 kts winds flowing into it and offering some support for gale development while pushing east through Thursday before fading and lifting northeast into the early weekend. Beyond 72 hours another moderate.cgius trough is forecast for just west of the dateline early next week (Mon 10/19) with 160 kts winds pushing east and easing into mid-week. Another patch of solid energy is scheduled pushing off Japan at the same time. The jetstream is looking more favorable now that the Inactive Phase of the MJO has faded.
At the surface on Tuesday (10/13) a broad gale low was centered just 300 nmiles off Washington, the fading remnants of Typhoon Melor generating 25-30 kt southwest winds pushing into the Central CA coast with one patch to 35 kts. Tropical storm Nepartak was moving north well off Southern Japan likely bound for the North Pacific storm corridor. Over the next 72 hours the remnants of extratropical gale Melor are to continue pushing into Central CA. On Tuesday AM pressure was 976 mbs with 35 kt west winds at 40N 140W aimed directly at the coast from San Francisco southward to Pt Conception with seas pushing 23 ft at 39N 140W (seas alway lag about 6 hrs behind the fetch that generates them). This fetch is to make the final push into the coast late evening with seas building to 24 ft at 38N 135W targeting the same area as before. 20 ft seas to be dissipating off San Francisco Wednesday AM. Swell of up to 9 ft @ 13-14 secs (12 ft faces) is expected to arrive along the Central CA coast after sunset on Wednesday then sliding down Thursday AM with swell 7 ft @ 13 secs at sunrise (double overhead 10- ft faces) and very raw. Swell Direction 280 degrees. This is an upgrade from previous estimates.
Secondary 25-30 kt west to southwest fetch is forecast off the Central CA coast Thursday (10/15) rotating under the still-present remains of Melor off Washington generating 15-17 ft seas and more 10-11 sec period windswell pushing into the coast for the weekend.
Extratropical Storm Melor
The remnants of Typhoon Melor started tracking east off northern Japan on Friday AM (10/9) with 55 kt winds at 42N 150E aimed generally east up the 304 degree path to NCal and 305 degree path to Hawaii. 30 ft seas were modeled at 42N 153E. In the evening winds were down to the 40-45 kts range at 42N 158W generating 35 ft seas at 43N 159E. These are to be on the 302 degree path to NCal and 2900 nmiles away and the 310 degree path to Hawaii and 2500 nmiles away. By Sat AM (10/10) winds to be down to 35 kts at 43N 165E with seas fading from 30 ft at 43N 165E, not even reaching the dateline. This one was gone after that with only 25 ft seas left Sat PM at 43N 170E. Some degree of fun sized 15-16 sec period swell is likely for the Hawaiian Islands on Tues (10/13) with less for the US Mainland on Thurs (10/15).
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting Tuesday (10/13) pushing 3 ft @ 17 secs late (5 ft faces) building to 5 ft @ 14-15 secs mid Wednesday (7 ft faces). Swell fading from 4.5 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft faces) on Thurs (10/15). Swell Direction: 305-312 degrees.
Central CA: Expect swell arrival Thurs (10/15) reaching 2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft faces). Very inconsistent if even noticeable. Swell to push to 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft faces) on Fri (10/16) then fading from there. Swell Direction 302-305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/13) low pressure associated with the remnants of Typhoon Melor were holding off the US West coast and expected to go nowhere through Wednesday South winds to remain in the forecast for Central CA through then, with Southern CA getting a little break perhaps late afternoon. On Thursday a neutral pressure pattern is forecast locally with light winds in effect, with weak high pressure trying to build into SCal on late Thursday with north winds more likely, but not going north of Pt Conception. More of th same on Friday with Melor finally dissipating in the Northern Gulf, but the extratropical remnants of Nepartak moving into the CA window. Light winds forecast Saturday and Sunday other than northerly winds to 15 kt off Point Conception as Nepartak moves closer. A weak front to hit northern CA from Nepartak on Monday with high pressure right behind generating north winds at 15 kts mid-day and holding into Tuesday. But that';s to be short lived with a new real storm forecast for the Eastern Gulf right behind. This smells very much like the pattern that will be set for this winter (i.e. rain and south winds north of Pt Conception).
Tropics
The Active Phase of the MJO is in control.
Tropical Storm Parma had winds of 55 kts and was tracking west, expected to push over North Vietnam Tuesday (10/13) evening. No swell producing fetch is forecast in the North Pacific.
Tropical Storm Nepartak (formally TD #21) was tracking northeast well off Japan bound for the dateline with winds 40 kts and turning extratropical. This system will likely help fuel development of a swell producing system on the dateline then. Details to be monitored above. This is the last update in the Tropical Section for this system.
With the Active Phase, we believe the odds for yet more tropical development in the West and Central Pacific is good over then next 2+ weeks, with some perhaps having the potential to curve north and northeast while turning extratropical.
South Pacific
Overview
At the surface on Tuesday (10/13) no swell producing fetch was occurring or forecast over the next 72 hours with a steady southeast push to the flow all aimed no further north than Southern Chile.
New Zealand Gale- Storm 5S
A gale low quickly build under New Zealand Friday AM with 45-50 kts southwest winds at 58S 165E. By late Friday (10/9) with 45-50 kt southwest winds at 59S 163E producing 30-31 ft seas at 60S 160E, barely off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf.
By Saturday AM (10/10) 35-40 kt southwest winds were fading at 55S 178E pushing east-northeast resulting in a solid sized area of 37 ft seas at 55S 172E (from previous day fetch), then fading from 32 ft in the evening at 53S 178W. The highest seas were on the 214 degree path to SCal and partially shadowed by Tahiti and on the 213 degree path to NCal and totally unshadowed. They were on the 196 degree path to Hawaii.
A fade was occurring Sunday AM (10/11) as the fetch was fading from 40 kts at 45S 172W. 35 ft seas were modeled at 48S 175W unshadowed for NCal but shadowed for SCal on the 213 degree path. In the evening residual 40 kt winds are forecast with 35 ft seas at 45S 165W from the 209 degree path to CA and shadowed for all regions, and the 187 degree path to HI, then fading out.
No Jason-1 satellite passes occurred to verify seas heights other than one early in the systems life (Fri AM) and it was exactly in-line with the models. A good shot of moderate significant class southern hemi swell (17 secs) seems likely for Tahiti and Hawaii with decent but non-significant class size for US West Coast in the days ahead.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival early on Sat (10/17) with swell building to 3.6 ft @ 17 secs late (6.0 ft faces with top spots to 7.5-8.0 ft or more). Swell to continue on Sun (10/18) with swell 3.6 ft @ 16 secs early (5.5 ft faces with top spots to 7 ft). Swell Direction: 192-196 degrees
SCal: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (10/19) with swell 1.6 ft @ 18 secs 92.5-3.0 ft faces) and size slowly building. Swell building to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs late Monday (4 ft faces with top spots to 5 ft). Swell Direction 213-214 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours the remnants of Typhoon Nepartak are to turn extratropical and try and reorganize while pushing east over the dateline late Wednesday (10/14) producing a small area of 35 kt west winds, but fading before getting much traction. It is to accelerate east tracking 800 nmiles north of Hawaii on Saturday with 30 kt west winds building to 35 kt on Saturday 1000 nmiles off San Francisco producing 16 ft seas then holding strength while moving into Cape Mendocino late Sunday (10/18). More 11 sec period windswell likely for Central CA with rain possibly too.
Beyond the models suggest subtropical moisture rising up from the tropics is to get tapped by the jetstream Monday (10/19) igniting a decent looking storm in the Eastern Gulf Tuesday with 50-55 kt northwest winds at 45N 145W possible generating 30 ft seas aimed towards Central CA. This is highly optimistic but not out of the question. Will monitor. And more is forecast behind that. Assuming this occurs one would be predisposed to say this looks much like a classic instance of the Active Phase of the MJO during El Nino. But it is way to early to make such an observation, since it is only forecast and has not really happened yet.
Beyond yet another small weak gale is forecast forming over the dateline Thursday PM with 35 kt winds targeting Hawaii and locations east of there. up to 40 kt northwest winds are forecast on Friday (10/16) fading to 35 kts in the evening at 40N 167W and aimed more to the east towards the mainland. Seas building to 19 ft at that time at 40N 168W. This system is to track due east into late Saturday with 30-35 kt west winds and 19 ft seas heading apparently towards Oregon. Possible 12 secs period swell for Hawaii late Mon (10/19) and the US West coast maybe Tuesday (10/20). But that is all just a wild guess at this early date.
MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (10/13) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Active Phase. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index was moving negative. The Daily SOI index was at -8.58 (6 days in a row solidly negative and 18 consecutive days nearly negative/not positive) The 30 day average was down to -0.19 and the 90 average was down to -1.46. The SOI index is likely to continue heading down for the days ahead driven by the Active Phase of the MJO.
Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models indicated neutral/normal winds over the Eastern equatorial Pacific with mild western anomalies associated with the Active Phase of the MJO present from Indonesia east to a point about north of New Guinea. This is down yet again from the strength projected at our last update a few days ago. The Active Phase has made all the progress into the West Pacific it is going to make, and expected to fade in the next few days. So the question is whether this is real, or whether the models will change their mind a week from now and suggest re-ignition of the Active Phase. At this point it really doesn't matter given what's happening with winds and water temps on the dateline (see below). Regardless, the models suggest dead neutral conditions now through November 1. If anything. maybe this is a case in point where the MJO signal does die during El Nino events. Guess we'll have to wait and see. Our belief is that the mid-to-late October timeframe still looks like a good window for support of North Pacific Storm development, moving slowly from the West Pacific tropics towards the Central Pacific (Hawaii and the Western Gulf of Alaska) .
Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (10/12) indicates more subtle changes over the past month, with the area of warmer than normal water expanding it's grip on the equator starting on the dateline and building east into Central/South America with temps holding at 2.0-3.0 deg C above normal in the east. This is suggestive of a weak to moderate El Nino. The expanse of the warmer waters continues to build north of the equator, solidifying it's grip up the coast of Mexico and Baja (though still retreated from Southern and Northern CA - the result of a local north wind/high pressure event last week forced by the last push of the Inactive Phase of the MJO), and extending west almost to Hawaii then southwest to the dateline. If anything, this area is looking even stronger than a week ago. Effectively there is a broad wide triangle of warmer than normal water extending from just south of San Diego southwest just under Hawaii and on to the intersection of the equator and the dateline, then tracking southeast on to Northern Peru. This is not historically anything exceptional, but clearly a moderate El Nino just the same. In reviewing surface water temp anomalies over the past decade and more, this is in no way similar to the monumental ENSO event of '97/98. But as previously stated, it still surpasses any event since then (over the last 12 years) in terms of either water temps or areal coverage. And the warm pool is holding if not subtly building in areal coverage, though not building in intensity. Cooler than normal waters we had been monitoring off Africa have totally faded out.
Below the surface on the equator things continue to look most positive, better than a week ago. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now. The Kelvin Wave we had been tracking over the past months has reached Central America with the core moving into the coast and residuals fading at 95W, mostly off the charts now. This Kelvin Wave was the result of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) in the West Pacific that occurred on 7/25-8/2. We still expect to see surface water temperatures jump up in Oct off Central America as this Kelvin wave disperses, feeding the developing warm water pool there and fueling El Nino. The good news is that another core of 2 deg warm water that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 moving east to 175W by 9/22 and 172W on 9/24, then built to 3 degrees above normal (9/29) was still growing as of 10/13 at 170W. It looked most impressive. This is a new Kelvin Wave, one we'd been looking for associated with a persistent weak westerly surface wind flow that had been in.cgiace west of the dateline from 9/8-9/17. It is embedded in a continuous stream of 1+ degree warmer than normal water extending from 155E under the dateline and into the existing warm pool off Ecuador. This one is expected to reach the coast of Ecuador late December, about at the peak of whatever El Nino will be in.cgiace for this winter. So all looks good for maintaining the existing warm pool for a while if not building it. But for more than a weak El Nino to form, we need more warm water over the long haul.
On 10/1 a solid patch of westward winds were depicted in-control of the West Pacific with strong west anomalies extending to almost the dateline. This had been in.cgiay since 9/27 and was associated with tropical systems Parma and Melor. This is good news. A full on Westerly Wind Burst was in effect. As of 10/3 fully blowing west winds were subsiding, though westerly anomalies continued reaching to the dateline. And by 10/6 just light west winds were in effect west of the dateline. But then again on 10/7 another group of fully blowing west winds were depicted extending all the way to the dateline, with decent force too. Anomalies were in full effect to the dateline and beyond to the east. On 10/11 light west winds were still in effect to the dateline with solid anomalies over the dateline and to a point south of Hawaii. And by 10/13 a light west flow was in effect with full west anomalies still in.cgiace to the dateline and east to about Hawaii. This remains very good news and is likely associated with the current new Active Phase of the MJO. Of much interest were the anomalies from climatological norms, with western anomalies blowing solidly in the region west of the dateline and now solid westerly anomalies were moving into the the region east of the dateline to a point south of Hawaii. This is the first such event for this El Nino and if anything was on the upswing. It has been holding for a week now, likely qualifying it as a new and distinct Westerly Wind Burst. For weeks now (since 9/8) a moderate westerly anomaly has been in.cgiay from the west up to the dateline. These westerly anomalies started with Typhoon Dujuan and continued with Choi-Wan gently feeding the subsurface warm water flow. And then with Parma and Melor, that flow was enhanced. And now yet more anomalies and full Westerly Winds are occurring. At a minimum it suggests reinforcements for the developing Kelvin Wave depicted on the dateline (see above) if not causing yet another Kelvin wave to develop. And that in-turn will reinforce the Kelvin Wave impacting Central America. This is all very encouraging.
At this time we are saying this developing El Nino is past the critical juncture and will survive in some fashion with effects continuing in the atmosphere until at least the Spring of next year. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a weak to moderate one. NOAA's most recent update (10/8) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at a possible intensification (but not likely). A solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years.
The next milestone we're monitoring is development of this Active Phase of the MJO occurring now (10/3). The models indicate it is moderate in strength and should hold for a few weeks. Also water temps need to hold if not build (as is happening now). Our thoughts are that El Nino might gain a little more strength, but not much, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news. But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.
See more details in the new El Nino update.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest no swell producing fetch to occur.
Details to follow...
****
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Local Interest
Interview With Stormsurf: The crew at SurfScience.com worked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing. This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others. See the full thing here: Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf
Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.
Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.
Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a.cgiace where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sa.cgie one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.
“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”
The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the pe.cgie, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.
The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards
The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is.cgianned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/
Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out,.cgiease take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/
North California Surf Report Works Again: After an extended downtime we finally got the North California Surf Report working again. Thanks for your patience. See it here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/report/ncal.html
Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)
Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process. Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone. Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.
New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.
Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html
Story About Stormsurf: The folks at SurfPulse (and specifically author Mike Wallace) have written up a really nice article about Stormsurf, complete with some good pics. Learn about how we came to be and a little of where we are going. Check it out here: http://www.surfpulse.com/2009/01/visceral-surf-forecasting-with-mark-sponsler/
Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/
Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's si.cgie and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet E.cgiorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
