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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, October 8, 2017 9:15 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.9 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/9 thru Sun 10/15

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

S. Hemi Swell #2S Fading in CA
Southern Hemi to Pulse Again


On Sunday, October 8, 2017 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with northeast windswell 5.7 ft @ 10.1 secs from 16 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 14.7 secs with southern hemi swell 3.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 179 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 69.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 3.2 ft @ 8.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.9 ft @ 14.9 secs from 211 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 3.8 ft @ 15.0 secs from 217 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.8 ft @ 15.0 secs from 197 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with local north windswell 9.2 @ 9.7 secs from 321 degrees and southern hemi swell lost underneath. Wind at the buoy was north 21-27 kts. Water temp 58.6 degs.

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.


Current Conditions
On Sunday (10/8) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at exposed breaks at 1-2 ft overhead and clean but pretty lumpy. Protected breaks were shoulder to head high and clean but very warbled. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell #2S was still solid producing waves at maybe 1 ft overhead but pretty crossed up with local north windswell and clean with no wind early. In Southern California up north southern hemi swell was producing waves at 1-2 ft overhead and clean but slow. In North Orange Co set waves were 2-3 ft overhead and lined up marching from the south but pretty warbled from stiff south wind. In South Orange Co north southern hemi swell #2S was still occasionally solid with set waves 2-3 ft overhead but torn apart by south winds nearly white capping. In San Diego surf was head high and almost clean but with south warble running through it. Hawaii's North Shore was getting solid northeast windswell at 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean. The South Shore was waist high and clean with light trades. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at head high to 1 ft overhead and lightly textured with light east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (10/8) southern hemi swell was still hitting California from a gale that produced up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast on Wed-Fri (9/29), but was on it's way down. In the northern hemisphere local north windswell was building in California courtesy of a strong version of the usual summertime North California pressure gradient. Hawaii was getting solid northeast windswell from a weak surface low previously northeast of the Islands. Previously a gale formed in the Northern Gulf on Fri-Sat (10/7) producing up to 23 ft seas aimed southeast but mostly east of the swell window relative to North and Central CA. A similar gale is forecast Sun (10/8) again in the extreme North Gulf with up to 30 ft seas, but again east of the swell window. There's hints of a tiny gale forming over the North Dateline region on Fri (10/13) with 30 ft seas. Down south swell already in the water in California is to continue slowly fading. Perhaps another tiny swell is to arrive in HI and CA from a a small gale that produced up to 39 ft seas east of New Zealand Tues (10/3). But of more interest is another gale forecast for the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (10/10) producing 36-40 ft seas aimed well northeast. More southern hemi swell seems likely while we wait for Fall to start in earnest.


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Thursday AM (10/5) the jetstream was displaced north and weak running east on the 48N latitude line off the North Kuril Islands pushing over the North Dateline region with winds only maybe 90 kts then ridging northeast over the Gulf of Alaska with winds building to 160 kts and pushing into North Canada. There were no troughs and no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours
the jet is to progressively weaken into Tues (10/10 and ridging mostly over the Bering Sea. Finally on Wed A bit of wind energy is to build to 125 kts pushing east off the Kuril Island forming a trough but mainly landlocked over the far Western Aleutians but perhaps supporting gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to lift northeast and only have exposure over the Bering Sea on Thurs (10/12). To the east the jet is to be ridging northeast pushing inland over Eastern Alaska with no jetstream energy over exposed waters of the Northeast Pacific. Slow the jet is to flatten, fall south some and energize a bit by Sun (10/15) running generally flat east on the 48N latitude line with winds to 160 kts in the west and 110-120 kts over the Gulf with no troughs present offering no support for gale development, but at least positioned and configured as if it might want to form a gale longer term. For now La Nina remains manifest in the jet.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (10/5) some small groundswell was tracking southeast from a gale previously in the extreme Northern Gulf of Alaska, bound mainly for the Pacific Northwest (See North Gulf Gale below). Windswell from a low northeast of Hawaii was hitting the Hawaiian Islands better than expected. Looking forward only local north windswell is in the forecast, and limited to California.

Over the next 72 hours starting Sun AM (10/8) another small gale is forecast for the extreme North Gulf of Alaska producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 56N 152W and shadowed for Central CA southward. 35+ kt west winds to continue pushing east in the evening with seas 28 ft at 56N 144W and still shadowed for everywhere south of Pt Arena. The gale is to dissipate from there.

No other swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Gulf Gale
Starting Friday AM (10/6) a fetch of west winds at 30-35 kts started moving from the East Bering Sea into the extreme north Gulf of Alaska generating 22 ft seas up at 55N 150W and mostly shadowed for North CA south of Pt Reyes. In the evening wind turned northwest still at 30-35 kts generating seas of 23 ft at 55N 147W and still mostly shadowed. Fetch faded Sat AM (10/7) from 30 kts while tracking east and seas 21 ft at 54N 138W and still shadowed. Possible swell for the Pacific Northwest down into North CA north of Pt Reyes with sideband dribbles south of there. And whatever swell does show will be buried in local north windswell for California.


For windswell relative to California: On Sun (10/8) north winds were blowing at 35 kts off North CA driving by high pressure at 1032 mbs in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska and forecast holding into the evening, then fading down to 30 kts Mon AM (10/9) isolated to Cape Mendocino and then fading from 20 kts in the evening. A light eddy flow (south winds) is forecast south of Pt Arena. Larger raw windswell is to be in play on Sunday (108) for North and Central CA fading into Monday. By Tues (10/10) strong high pressure at 1042 mbs is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska building a broad fetch of 20-25 kts north winds along the entire Canada coast down to Cape Mendocino but not quite touching the coast till later in the afternoon. Windswell again on the increase relative to North and Central CA. By Wed (10/11) the high is to control the Gulf generating 25-30 kts north winds over North CA and that fetch falling south to near Pt Conception generating raw local north windswell for all of North and Central CA, but focused more on Central CA.

For windswell relative to Hawaii: On Sun (10/8) a weak pressure and wind pattern was in control but windswell from previous fetch was arriving for exposed North and East Shores. A light pressure and wind pattern is forecast Mon-Tues (10/10). Then on Wed (10/11) high pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska is to start producing a fetch of east winds at 15-20 kts 300 nmiles east of the Islands perhaps starting to generating east windswell for exposed east facing shores.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were occurring and none were forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (10/8) high pressure at 1032 mbs in the Eastern Gulf was generating north winds along the coast of North and Central CA at up to 35 kts over Pt Arena and 25 kts over Pt Conception and expected to hold through the evening. Monday north winds to be fading from 30 kts early over Cape Mendocino down to 20 kts later afternoon but with a well defined eddy flow in control from Pt Arena southward. Tuesday (10/10) light winds are forecast for all California waters until late afternoon with north winds start rebuilding for North CA at 20 kts. Wed (10/11) north winds at to be at 20+ kts for North CA and up to 30 kts for Bodega Bay to San Francisco and 25 kts down to Pismo Beach early and falling south in the afternoon. Thursday 20-25 kts north winds to be in control of all of North and Central CA nearshore waters all day pretty much holding Friday too. Saturday (10/14) the north winds are to become isolated to North CA at 25 kts and 20 kts for Central CA (15 kts later) and then limited Sunday (10/15) to 25 kts over North CA (early) and 10 kts or less from Bodega Bay southward and fading from there. In short, a windfest for the workweek.

South Pacific

Surface Analysis  
On Sunday (10/8) swell originating in the South Pacific was still hitting California (see South Pacific Gale below). Tiny sideband swell from another gale that developed off New Zealand on Tues (10/3) was radiating northeast.

Over the next 72 hours an improving picture is forecast. On Sun AM (108) a fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were getting traction on the oceans surface southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 26 ft at 58S 171W. In the evening the gale is to build to storm status with 50 kt south winds taking shape and seas 31 ft at 54S 157W aimed northeast. A solid area of 45 kt south winds are forecast Mon AM (10/9) with 40 kt southwest winds over a much larger area with 34 ft seas at 53S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be consolidating at 45 kts from the south with a tiny core of 39 ft seas at 50S 148W surrounded by a solid area of 30+ ft seas aimed north. On Tues AM (10/10) south fetch is to be fading from 40 kts over a decent sized area aimed north with 37 ft seas fading over a small area at 45S 145W. Fetch fading from 35 kts from the south in the evening with seas fading from 30 ft at 40S 140W. Small swell is possible for Hawaii with larger size for California. Something to monitor.


South Pacific Gale (Swell #2S)
On Wed AM (9/27) a gale started building southeast of New Zealand with winds 40-45 kts from the southwest getting traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 32 ft at 60S 179W and north of the Ross Ice Shelf. In the evening evening the gale built while tracking east with a solid fetch of 45 kt southwest winds and seas up to 38 ft at 59.5S 165W aimed at the US West Coast well with sideband energy to Hawaii. Fetch started lifting north Thurs AM (9/28) with 40-45 kt south to southwest winds building in coverage with 38 ft seas over a solid area at 54S 150.5W and lifting northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of south winds is to be building at 40 kts over a 1200 nmiles fetch area with 36 ft seas at 49S 142.5W aimed at the US West Coast down into Peru. Fetch faded while lifting north Fri AM (9/29) at 40 kts with 34 ft seas at 45S 136W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts from the south and still lifting north with seas fading from 31 ft at 40S 135W. Sat AM (9/30) residual 30 kt south fetch was dissipating with seas fading from 27 ft way up at 34S 134W. Solid southerly swell is possible from the US West Coast down into Mexico if all goes as forecast. Limited sideband swell possible for Hawaii.

South California: Swell heading down on Sunday from 3.8 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Residual swell on Mon (10/9) fading from 3.1 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Dribbles fading Tues (10/10) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192-199 degrees

North California: Swell heading down on Sunday but still solid early at 3.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.0 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (10/9) 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (10/10) 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees


Small New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed under New Zealand on Mon PM (10/2) with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 53S 175E tracking east. On Tues AM (10/3) southwest winds built to 50-55 kt with 38 ft seas over a small area at 49S 170W. The storm rapidly faded in the evening with southwest winds dropping from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47S 161W. Wed AM (10/4) winds were fading from 35 kts from the southwest and seas 29 ft at 47S 152W. This system dissipated after that. Small southerly swell to result.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (10/10) pushing 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/11) from 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

California: Expect swell arrival on Fri (10/13).

Another small gale developed Wed PM (10/4) in the deep Central Pacific with 45 kts southwest winds tracking east and 33 ft seas over a tiny area at 57S 159W. Thurs AM (10/5) winds were fading from 40 kts with 30 ft seas over a tiny area at 58S 148W. In the evening the gale faded out. No meaningful swell is expected to result for our forecast area.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no groundswell producing weather system are forecast over the North Pacific.

Strong high pressure at 1040 mbs is to be over the Central Gulf of Alaska starting Thurs (10/12) locking down that area and preventing low pressure from forming.

For California on Thurs (10/12) the above high high pressure system is to be forming the usual pressure gradient along the North and Central CA coast generating 25 kts north winds nearshore making for raw local north windswell. More of the same is forecast on Friday (10/13). Saturday (10/14) the gradient is to start becoming more isolated to North CA with north winds 25 kts and north winds 20 kts just off Central CA early fading to 10-15 kts later. And by Sun (10/15) north winds to hold at 25 kts over Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena but 10 kts or less south of there with cleaner but smaller north windswell expected for Central CA.

For Hawaii starting Thurs (10/12) high pressure is to be taking firm control of the local weather picture generating east winds at 15-20 kts starting 300 nmiles east of the Islands then building over the Islands on Fri (10/13) with winds mostly 20 kts from the east 300 nmiles east of Hawaii. By Sat (10/14) a broad fetch of 20 kt east winds is to filling the area between Hawaii and the mainland generating larger east windswell and holding unchanged through Sun (10/15). This is a classic sign of La Nina.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...


La Nina Backing Off Some - Active MJO Pulse Suggested

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sat (10/7) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and modest east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/8) modest east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. East anomalies are to hold and start building again to the strong category on 10/10 holding through 10/14 then weakening some through the end of the model run on 10/15. This is not the Inactive Phase of the MJO, but another small pulse of La Nina completely squashing the MJO. This is not conducive to storm development in the greater Pacific Basin.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 10/7 a neutral MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a dead neutral pattern holding for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts a weak Active Phase of the MJO developing in the far West Pacific 5 days out and building while pushing east some through the end of the 2 week model run, but never reaching the dateline.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/8) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO weak and incoherent but is to push a bit over the Maritime Continent 6 days out while building in strength. The GEFS model suggests it building moderately strong 5 days out over the West Maritime Continent almost moving to the dateline 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (10/8) This model depicts a moderate Inactive/Dry Phase exiting east over the East Equatorial Pacific. It is forecast to be gone from the Pacific by 10/23. A weak Active/Wet pattern is to follow in the West Pacific 10/13 tracking east in the Central America 11/4. A moderate Inactive Phase is to follow in the West on 11/2 tracking east through the end of the model run on 11/17. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (10/5) This model is trying to spin up after crashing on 9/18. It is a mess and unbelievable. The low pass filter indicates a very weak El Nino signal is over the KWGA and is to hold for the foreseeable future. The La Nina signal has moved over the Atlantic. Interesting. If this is true, it suggests the underpinnings of La Nina are already gone. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017 holding into December, then vaporizing in March with a neutral ENSO signal developing. It will take about 5+ years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/8) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps have fallen to 29 degs centered at 160E and shrinking in coverage. The 28 deg isotherm line is barely hanging on at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm is weak at 122W today but shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to weakly negative +0.0 to -1.0 degs at the surface and up to -3.0 degs at depth at 150W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at 0.0-+1.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool and warm moving east at 110W. Some sort of surface warming is occurring. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 depicts the same thing, but with more cool water east and less warm water in the west. It looks like the cool water pocket at depth in the East Pacific is erupting to the surface near the Galapagos while east winds push all warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific to the West Pacific. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms from 170E to Ecuador with a large pocket of -10 cm anomalies present between 90W-160W and a cooler pocket at -10 cm at 135W suggesting a building cool pool at depth. This is not good.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/7) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed. Upwelling is rebuilding nearshore along Peru and Ecuador and tracking northwest fading in density over the Galapagos and flowing steadily west from there just south of the equator out to 140W. Interesting but warm anomalies are just north of the equator from the Galapagos to 115W. The cool pool looks much weaker than days and weeks past, likely dying due to decreased trades. Perhaps the La Nina pulse is pausing.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/7): A weakly warming temperature trend is along Peru. Weak warming is occurring from the Galapagos out to 110W, then moderating with mixed warm and cool pockets out to 160W.
Hi-res Overview: (10/7) A clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building some, then turning northwest off Ecuador while tracking west from the Galapagos out to 140W but markedly weaker than it was a week ago and weeks before that too. Weak cool anomalies continue west out to 170E. This pattern outlines the South Pacific high pressure system well which is assumed to be stronger than normal. It is assumed cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. Otherwise waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal other than the aforementioned stream. We now assert that climatology needs to be updated to reflect the new reality of warming ocean temperatures over the entire planet.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/8) Today's temps were falling at -1.159, but no as cold as Sept 20, when temps really started dipping.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (10/8) temps were falling some at -0.205, up some from where they bottomed out on 9/12 at -0.898. The long arc still suggests a clear downward trend though things have warmed steadily over the past 3 weeks.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/8) The forecast has temps steady at -0.5 degs early Sept to -0.4 in early Oct, but they are to be falling from there to -1.35 in early Dec. Then the trend is to turn upwards rebounding to -0.4 in April and neutral in June 2018. This suggests a legit La Nina now expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (9/26) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos in Oct and building steadily into Feb 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Sept Plume updated (9/19) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.4 degs in Sept, and fading to -0.6 degs in Nov, slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus for Sept average indicates temps -0.75 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is the outlier, colder than all other models. Still, given all the oceanic signals, we a tending to side with it more than the other models.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (10/8): The daily index was positive at 7.80. The 30 day average was rising at 9.38. The 90 day average was rising at +6.80. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (10/8) The index was falling again at -1.60 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17 but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina). Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16. We're gone deeper than that already. So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO discounting the recent La Nina dip. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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