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BUOY ROUNDUP

On Saturday, September 30, 2017 :

• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 10.3 secs from 345 degrees.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 6.2 secs with windswell 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 259 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 70.0 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.7 ft @ 6.1 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.8 secs from 221 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 0.8 ft @ 17.1 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 281 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.8 ft @ 7.1 secs with local north windswell 5.9 @ 7.6 secs from 315 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest 20-25 kts. Water temp 60.4 degs.
  Notes
  46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (9/30) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at exposed breaks at chest high or so and pretty warbled and raw but not chopped, at least not early. Protected breaks were chest high and warbled but not chopped. At Santa Cruz there was no rideable surf with windswell trying to wrap in at 1 ft and clean. In Southern California up north set waves were thigh high or so and clean though the oceans surface was terribly warbled. In North Orange Co set waves were maybe waist and pretty warbled by south wind. In South Orange Co waves were waist high on the sets and bit warbled by south wind. In San Diego surf was waist high and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was near flat and clean. The South Shore was near flat with sets thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting no east windswell of interest with southeast winds 5 kts or less.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (9/30) southern hemi swell was in the water pushing northeast from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand on Wed (9/27) generating up to 39 ft seas then started lifting northeast and north into Fri (9/29) with seas slowly fading to 31 ft targeting from California southward. Late season southern hemi swell is on the way. In the northern hemisphere a cutoff low is developing north-northwest of the Hawaiian Islands Fri-Sun (10/1) generating a small area of up to 22 ft seas aimed due south offering potential for small swell radiating towards Hawaii for early next week. Another gale is to follow directly behind in the Western Gulf Mon-Tues (10/3) tracking southeast generating a small area of 27 ft seas. And locally generated north windswell is to continue to be generated for North and Central CA Sun-Tues (10/3). For Hawaii east windswell is possible Wed-Sat (10/7). Things are looking up somewhat.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (9/30) the jetstream was ridging northeast off the Kuril Islands pushing to the North Dateline with winds to 180 kts then started falling hard south forming a pinched trough just east of there pushing down to 30N but weak with no real support for gale development. The jet then ridged hard north pushing up into the Northern Gulf of Alaska and building with winds to 140 kts then turned east and was pushing into Oregon. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to get infused with better wind energy to 150 kts on Sun (10/1) pushing east to a point 300 nmiles north of Hawaii before collapsing offering only weak support for gale development. After that the jet is to be running generally flat east up on the 45N latitude line offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a weak trough is to develop in the Northwest Gulf on Mon-Tues (10/3) tracking east being fed by 110 kt winds and weakening only to redevelop early Thurs (10/5) and positioned in the Eastern Gulf and starting to pinch off and again not doing much to support gale development. Interestingly that trough is forecast to fully cut off and retrograde west in the Gulf Fri-Sat (10/7) moving to within 600 nmiles northeast of Hawaii perhaps offering some support for low pressure development. Otherwise the jet is to be running east and weak up at near 50N offering nothing of interest from a gale production standpoint.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/28) no groundswell was hitting either Hawaii or California. Locally generated north windswell was starting to develop along the North and Central California Coast. No windswell was present hitting Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff low pressure system started developing 1200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Thurs (9/28) easing east and started producing up to 30 kt northeast winds on Fri AM (9/29) and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By evening north winds were building at 40 kts over a tiny area at 40N 167W with seas building from 18 ft at 41N 167W aimed just a bit west of Hawaii. On Sat AM (9/30) north fetch was holding decently at 40 kts over a small area aimed south with seas 21 ft at 41N 165W aimed south. Fetch is to start fading while holding position in the evening at 35 kts with 19 ft seas at 42N 165W or 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Oahu. On Sun AM (10/1) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts while lifting northeast and loosing coverage with seas 16 ft at 40N 163W. Maybe some decent swell to radiate south towards Hawaii starting later Monday (10/2).

Hawaii: Small north angled swell is expected to arrive Mon (10/2) building to 4.0 ft @ 12 secs late (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (10/3) from 4.2 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Dribbles fading Wed AM (10/4) from 3.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 335-340 degrees.

Another small gale is to build in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Mon AM (10/2) with 45 kts northwest winds over a tiny area falling southeast with seas building from 20 ft at 47N 171W. In the evening 40-45 kt northwest fetch is o continue falling southeast generating 29 ft seas over a tiny area at 45.5N 166W. The gale is to quickly be collapsing Tues AM (10/3) with winds fading from 35 kts and seas 24 ft at 43N 161W. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts and tracking east with seas fading from 19 ft at 43N 156W. Sidebands well possible for Hawaii and small more direct swell possible for California. Something to monitor.

For windswell relative to California: High pressure at 1024 mbs was starting to build 400 nmiles off North CA on Sat (9/30) generating a local pressure gradient and north winds building from 25 kts early along North and Central CA pushing up to 30 kts over North CA later with raw windswell on the increase. Sunday the gradient is to be well developed with the focus lifting north over Pt Arena with north winds 30 kts and 25 kts down off the Channel Island and 50 nmiles off Pt Conception. Windswell building and raw. The gradient is to hold Mon (10/2) with 30 kt north winds over nearshore waters near Pt Arena and 25 kts off Pt Conception with windswell holding and still raw. High pressure is to be moving inland on Tues (10/3) with north winds limited to North CA nearshore waters at 25 kts early and down to 15 kts later. Windswell fading.

For windswell relative to Hawaii: On Sat (9/30) high pressure was start to build off of California produce a fragmented pocket of east winds at 15 kts about 600 nmiles east of the Big Island but getting cohesive on Sun (10/1) continuing through Tues (10/3) but still a ways east of the Islands. Very limited support for east windswell radiating into exposed east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were occurring and none were forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (9/30) north winds were on the increase as high pressure was building at 1024 mbs just 400 nmiles off Cape Mendocino with north winds 20-25 kts from Cape Mendocino to Pt Conception pushing near 30 kts over North CA later. The gradient is to build in coverage Sunday with 30 kt north winds from Cape Mendocino southward to Pt Reyes nearshore and 25 kt north winds 100 miles off the coast down to Pt Conception with 15 kt north winds nearshore. Monday the gradient and north winds are to hold early at 30 kts over Pt Arena and 25 kt north winds down to Pt Conception over nearshore waters. Tuesday (10/3) the gradient is to relax some but still producing 25 kts north winds off Pt Arena with 20 kts north winds offshore down to Pt Conception but calm nearshore from Bodega Bay southward and fading through the day. Wednesday a light pressure and wind pattern is forecast and holding through Friday (10/6). North winds possible building Sat (10/7) at 20 kts over North CA and 15 kts down to Pt Conception.

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (9/30) swell from the South Pacific was radiating northeast towards California from a gale that traversed the South Pacific (see South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours an improving picture is forecast. Supposedly a storm is to develop under New Zealand on Mon AM (10/2) with 55 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 56S 162E tracking east. In the evening the storm is to hold with 55 kt southwest winds and seas 45 ft over a small area at 54S 177E. On Tues AM (10/3) southwest winds are to still be 50-55 kt with 45 ft seas at 54S 171W. The storm is to rapidly fade in the evening with winds dropping from barely 45 kts and seas 42 ft at 54S 162W. Wed AM (10/4) winds are to be fading from 40 kts from the west and seas 38 ft at 52S 152W. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Gale (Swell #2S)
On Wed AM (9/27) a gale started building southeast of New Zealand with winds 40-45 kts from the southwest getting traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 32 ft at 60S 179W and north of the Ross Ice Shelf. In the evening evening the gale built while tracking east with a solid fetch of 45 kt southwest winds and seas up to 38 ft at 59.5S 165W aimed at the US West Coast well with sideband energy to Hawaii. Fetch started lifting north Thurs AM (9/28) with 40-45 kt south to southwest winds building in coverage with 38 ft seas over a solid area at 54S 150.5W and lifting northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of south winds is to be building at 40 kts over a 1200 nmiles fetch area with 36 ft seas at 49S 142.5W aimed at the US West Coast down into Peru. Fetch faded while lifting north Fri AM (9/29) at 40 kts with 34 ft seas at 45S 136W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts from the south and still lifting north with seas fading from 31 ft at 40S 135W. Sat AM (9/30) residual 30 kt south fetch was dissipating with seas fading from 27 ft way up at 34S 134W. Solid southerly swell is possible from the US West Coast down into Mexico if all goes as forecast. Limited sideband swell possible for Hawaii.

South California: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/5) early with period 21 secs and rideable and building through the day pushing 3.0 ft @ 20 secs later (6.0 ft with sets to 7.5 ft). Swell continuing upward Fri (10/6) from 3.8 ft @ 18 secs (6.8 ft with sets to 8.5 ft) pushing 4.3 ft @ 17 secs later (7.2 ft with sets to 9.1 ft). Swell continues Sat (10/7) at 4.3 ft @ 16 secs (6.9 ft with sets to 8.7 ft), fading slightly later. Swell heading down on Sunday. Swell Direction: 192-199 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/5) early with period 22 secs and barely rideable and building through the day pushing 2.3 ft @ 21 secs later (4.8 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell continuing upward Fri (10/6) from 3.28 ft @ 19 secs (6.2 ft with sets to 7.8 ft) pushing 3.6 ft @ 18 secs later (6.5 ft with sets to 8.1 ft). Swell continues Sat (10/7) at 4.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (6.6 ft with sets to 8.2 ft). Swell heading down on Sunday but still solid early. Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no groundswell producing weather system are forecast over the North Pacific.

For California no high pressure nor gradients are forecast nearshore with a weak pressure and wind pattern forecast offering no support for windswell production.

For Hawaii trades are to be start building Wed (10/4) as high pressure builds 1200 nmiles north of the Islands at 1036 mbs with east winds 15 kt from Hawaii 1000 nmiles eastward getting much more defined Thurs (10/5) with pockets of east winds to 20 kts offering good potential for east windswell development along exposed east shores of the Hawaiian Islands. A cutoff low is to develop 1200 nmiles northeast of the Islands on Fri (10/6) forming a gradient with the high still at 1038 mbs 1200 nmiles north of the Islands producing 30 kt northeast winds and 17 ft seas at 35N 142W aimed well at Hawaii. The gradient is to fade Sat Am (10/7) with northeast winds dropping from 25 kts while tracking west and seas fading from 15 ft at 34N 148W. Windswell possible.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another tiny storm is to be developing southeast of New Zealand on Wed AM (10/2) with 55 kt southwest winds and 42 ft seas at 55S 176W. Fetch fading in the evening from 45 kts from the west and seas 45 ft over a tiny area at 54S 167W Something to monitor.

And possibly more behind that.

More details to follow...

 

Subsurface Cool Pool Continues Erupting in Equatorial East Pacific

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (9/29) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and strong over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific but moderate to strong easterly over the entire KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/30) modest east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. East anomalies are to build again 10/1-10/3, then fading to neutral by the end of the model run on 10/7. This is not the Inactive Phase of the MJO, but is a full pulse of La Nina completely squashing the MJO. This is not conducive to storm development in the greater Pacific Basin.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 9/29 a neutral MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a dead neutral pattern holding for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with a weak Inactive/Dry pattern trying to develop in the far West Pacific the last 10 days of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/30) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO weak and incoherent but is to push a bit over the Maritime Continent 10 days out. The GEFS model suggests it building over Africa slightly 10 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (9/30) This model depicts a Neutral (neither Inactive/Dry or Active/West) Phase over the Equatorial Pacific. A very weak Inactive/Dry pulse is forecast over the West Pacific 10/10 tracking east into Central America through 10/30. A neutral pattern is to follow through the end of the model run on 11/9. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (9/28) This model is trying to spin up after crashing on 9/18. It is a mess and unbelievable. The low pass filter indicates a very weak La Nina signal is in control of the KWGA and is to hold till 10/28, then building in coverage but quickly drifting east and out of the KWGA by the end of November while a El Nino like signal shifting from the Indian Ocean strongly east into and covering the KWGA by 12/25. There's some sense the La Nina pattern is to start shifting east early November entirely east of the dateline by late December. This is consistent with other data. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017 holding into December, then vaporizing in March with a neutral ENSO signal developing. It will take about 5+ years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/28) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps had fallen to 29 degs centered at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm is stable at 125W today but shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to weakly negative +0.0 to -1.0 degs at the surface and up to -2.0 degs at depth at 140W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at +1.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool and warm at 168W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/20 depicts the same thing, but with more cool water east and less warm water in the west. It looks like the cool water pocket at depth in the East Pacific is erupting to the surface near the Galapagos while east winds push all warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific to the West Pacific. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms from 170E to Ecuador with a large pocket of -10 cm anomalies present between 90W-160W and a cooler pocket at -10 cm at 135W suggesting a building cool pool at depth. This is not good.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/29) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cold pattern has developed. Upwelling is strong nearshore along Peru and Ecuador and tracking northwest continuing in density over the Galapagos and flowing steadily west from there on the equator out to 100W, then weakening slowly out to 160W. There is no breaks in the cool stream over this entire area. This looks very much like a classic La Nina signature. Cooling in the heart of the Nino3.4 region is building.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/29): A neutral temperature trend is along Peru off Ecuador and the Galapagos. West of there on the equator pockets of warming are indicated out to 140W.
Hi-res Overview: (9/28) A clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building, then turning northwest off Ecuador peaking while tracking west from the Galapagos to 110W, then moderating and continuing to the dateline and beyond. This pattern outlines the South Pacific high pressure system well which is assumed to be stronger than normal. It is assumed cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. Otherwise waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal other than the aforementioned stream. We now assert that climatology needs to be updated to reflect the new reality of warming ocean temperatures over the entire planet.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/30) Today's temps were steady at -1.308, down markedly from 2 weeks ago.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (9/30) temps are falling again at -0.467, having bottomed out on 9/12 at -0.898. The long arc suggests a clear downward trend.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/30) The forecast has temps falling steadily from -0.6 degs early Sept to -0.7 in early Oct and down from there to -1.55 in early Dec. Then the trend is to turn upwards rebounding to -0.35 in April and neutral in June 2018. This suggests a legit La Nina now expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (9/26) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos in Oct and building steadily into Feb 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Sept Plume updated (9/19) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.4 degs in Sept, and fading to -0.6 degs in Nov, slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus for Sept average indicates temps -0.75 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is the outlier, colder than all other models. Still, given all the oceanic signals, we a tending to side with it more than the other models.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (9/28): The daily index was positive again at 11.05. The 30 day average was rising at 6.16. The 90 day average was rising at +5.75. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (9/30) The index was falling again at -1.47 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17 but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina). Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16. We're deeper than that now. So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO discounting the recent La Nina dip. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table