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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, September 18, 2018 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 17.2 secs from 190 degrees.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 15.5 secs from 140 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temperature 72.0 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.9 ft @ 16.7 secs from 177 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.8 secs from 185 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 209 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.8 secs from 182 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 7.6 ft @ 7.7 secs from 320 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.3 ft @ 16.1 secs from 181 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was north at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.9 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/18) in North and Central CA northern windswell was producing set waves to waist to maybe chest high and warbled but not chopped and soft. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and clean and lined up on the sets but generally weak and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura surf was thigh high or so and clean but with alot of warble in the water from wind off the coast. In North Orange Co waves were up to chest high or so and lined up and clean coming from the south with just a little texture of undefined origin in the water. South Orange Country's best breaks were up to head high on the peak of the sets and clean but warble present coming from the north. In North San Diego surf was waist to chest high and clean and lined up but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting some small swell with peaks to head high and clean but with northeast lump running through it. The South Shore was near flat with a few thigh to waist high peaks with clean conditions. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves thigh high and lightly chopped with modest east trades blowing.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/18) residual southern hemi swell originating from a gale that developed on Wed (9/5) producing 39 ft seas in the Southwest Pacific just off the Ross Ice Shelf was hitting California in combination with swell from another gale that formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun (9/9) on the very edge of the SCal swell window with seas 38-46 ft. And a small gale formed under New Zealand on Mon-Tues (9/11) with 38 ft seas aimed east offering some hope for Hawaii starting Tues (9/18). Beyond a small short-lived gale developed in the deep Southwest Pacific on Sun-Mon (9/17) producing a small area of 42 ft seas aimed east. Beyond there's no gales forecast for the North Pacific over the next 7 days and only weak suggestions of 2 gales forming in the South Pacific under New Zealand Sun-Tues (9/25) but not really believable. We're really waiting for La Nina to fade in the atmosphere and for a Fall pattern to set up.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (9/18) tiny swell from a small gale that tracked through the Northwest Pacific was hitting Hawaii (see Northwest Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a calm weather and sea state is forecast with no swell producing weather systems forecast.

 

Northwest Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed near the dateline tracking east Wed AM (9/12) with 30 kt north winds and seas building from 17 ft. In the evening winds continued at 30 kts but turning from the northwest with seas building from 20 ft at 41N 168E targeting Hawaii decently. On Thurs AM (9/13) northwest winds were holding at 30 kts from the northwest but lifting northeast getting less traction on the oceans surface with seas fading from 19 ft at 42N 171E. In the evening additional 35 kt northwest fetch is to develop briefly aimed at Hawaii with a small area of 20 ft seas developing at 44N 173E. On Fri AM (9/14) fetch is to be fading and lifting northeast with seas fading from 18 ft at 45N 180W. Whatever swell develops, will be minimal.

Oahu: Residuals left on Tues AM (9/18) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

 

Windswell Forecast
California: On Tuesday (9/18) high pressure was in the Eastern Gulf 900 nmiles west of North CA at 1024 mbs resulting in a building fetch of north winds at 15-20 kts over North and Central CA nearshore waters early building to 20-25 kts in the afternoon generating small and raw north local windswell. That fetch is to build on Wed (9/19) with north winds 25 kts off North and Central CA generating larger raw north windswell for North and Central CA. On Thurs (9/20) high pressure is to be holding west of San Francisco still ridging east generating north winds at 20-25 kts nearshore mainly over Cape Mendocino and off San Francisco but with light north winds at 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward and the whole fetch loosing some coverage in the afternoon offering decent odds for windswell production for North and Central CA early but fading as the day progresses. By Friday (9/21) the gradient is to fade away early as low pressure moves into the British Columbia coast wit windswell fading fast. On See QuikCAST's for details.

Hawaii: On Tuesday (9/18) high pressure is to get established at 1026 mbs in the Eastern Gulf 1100 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii generating a building fetch of 15-20 kt east winds extending from California to a point 600 nmiles east of Hawaii offering good odds for windswell production but that windswell not quite reaching Hawaii yet. On Wednesday (9/19) the leading edge of that fetch is to be pushing west positioned 300 nmiles east of Hawaii holding at 15-20 kts extending from California and then impacting the Big Island later generating modest east windswell at exposed east facing breaks. On Thursday (9/20) the fetch is to break up significantly with east winds 15 kts in patches but not continuous offering weak potential for windswell production. On Friday (9/21) easterly fetch is to remain weak at 10-15 kts from the east offering no windswell production potential. See QuikCAST's for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring or immediately forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (9/18) north winds were 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA but only 10 kt nearshore in the San Francisco area and forecast to build to 25 kts over NCal and Pt Conception later. Wed (9/19) a full summer time gradient is to set up with north winds 25 kts early for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA holding all day though maybe only 15 ks nearshore in the SF Bay area early. Thurs (9/20) north winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early then fading to 5-10 kts later south of Pt Reyes. On Fri (9/21) north winds to be 20 kts from Pt Arena down to Pt Reyes but light (10 kts or less) south of there and holding all day. On Sat (9/22) north winds to be 15-20 kts for all of North CA but light from San Francisco southward. Sun (9/23) north winds to be 20 kts early building to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Monday (9/24) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. Tues (9/25) north winds to be 30 kts for Cape Mendocino fading to 25 kts later but 10-15 kts from Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (9/18) the southern branch of the jetstream was running west to east in a zonal flow displaced well south at 64S over the entirety of the South Pacific with no troughs present offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours this pattern is to hold but with a ridge building southeast of New Zealand on Thurs (9/20) pushing down to 72S and into Antarctica and sweeping east actively suppressing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to push east over the Southeast Pacific on Sat (9/22) but with a trough starting to build under New Zealand and being fed by 120 kts winds on Sun (9/23) starting to offering some support for gale development. Winds feeding that trough are to weaken through Tues (9/25) but the trough is to hold together while easing east to a point southeast of New Zealand offerings some weak support for gale development.

Surface Analysis  
On Tuesday (9/18) swell from a small storm that built in the far Southeast Pacific was hitting California (see Southeast Pacific Storm Below). And swell from a gale that built under New Zealand is radiating north towards Hawaii (see New Zealand Gale below). Another gale also built under New Zealand but no meaningful swell is expected to radiate northeast (See Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Storm
A small but strong storm developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (9/8) with 45 kt southwest winds aimed northeast and seas building from 27 ft at 58S 131W. This storm built quickly Sun AM (9/9) with south winds 60 kts over a small area aimed north and seas 36-38 ft at 58.5S 119.5W barely in the SCal swell window. The storm tracked east in the evening with winds 50 kts aimed north and seas peaking at 46 ft at 55.5S 110W and outside the SCal swell window targeting Chile well. This system is to fade from there.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues (9/18) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 177-182 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (9/18) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
On Monday AM (9/10) a gale started developing southwest of New Zealand producing west to southwest winds at 50-55 kts with seas building to 37 ft at 56S 158E. In the evening 45 kt southwest winds were south of New Zealand with 38 ft seas over a tiny area at 55.5S 168E aimed east. On Tues AM (9/11) winds were down to 40 kts from the southwest with seas at 34 ft at 55S 177.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading while lifting northeast with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 29 ft at 53S 175W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (9/12) southwest winds were fading from 30 kts lifting northeast with seas 26 ft at 48S 170W. Maybe some small swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (9/19) to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/20) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-195 degrees

 

Another New Zealand Gale
Starting Saturday PM (9/15) a gale formed south of New Zealand with 45 kt northwest winds and seas starting to build from 27 ft at 51S 165.5E but falling southeast. On Sun AM (9/16) 50 kt west winds are to blowing east with seas 40 ft at 56.5S 173.5E but with the system falling southeast. The gale was falling southeast in the evening with winds holding at 50 kts from the west with seas building to 41 ft at 58.5S 174.5W. The gale tracked east Mon AM (9/17) while fading with winds 40 kts from the west and seas 34 ft at 57S 163W. In the evening the gale faded with west winds 35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 55S 153W. Given the east to southeast falling direction of this system, only small swell is expected to radiate northeast. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: No swell is forecast to radiate north.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Saturday (9/22) high pressure at 1032 mbs is to be in the Western Gulf riding east but not reaching California producing only a weak northerly flow at 15 kts over North CA and with light winds from Pt Reyes southward. No windswell production is forecast. Sunday (9/23) the ridge is to build east starting to generate north winds at 20 kts over all of North and Central CA with raw local short period north windswell starting to build. Monday (9/24) the gradient is to build solidly with north winds 25 kts over all of North and Central CA waters and up to 30 kts off Cape Mendocino with north windswell on the increase. On Tues (9/25) the gradient is to become focused over North CA with north winds 30 kts over Cape Mendocino early and light winds from San Francisco southward early offering decent potential for windswell production but with the fetch starting to fade mid-day.

Hawaii: On Saturday (9/22) a weak easterly trade wind pattern is forecast at 10+ kts offering no windswell production potential. No change is forecast Sunday through Tuesday (9/25).

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a series of gale are forecast to push east under New Zealand starting Sat PM (9/23) with west winds 45 kts and seas building from 31 ft at 52S 166E. On Sun AM (9/21) the gale is to be tracking east with west winds 45 kts over a small area and seas building to 39 ft at 56S 175E. In the evening the gale is to fade with winds dropping from 35 kts and seas fading from 33 ft at 57.5S 174.5W. Something to monitor.

Another smaller gale to follow under New Zealand Mon PM (9/24) with 50 kt southwest winds over a tiny area and seas building from 33 ft at 54S 167E. Fetch is to fade from 35 kts lifting northeast Tues AM (9/25) with seas 34 ft at 50S 174E. Something to monitor.

Details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Hanging On - ESPI Still Weakly Negative

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters in July and beyond, but could not sustain itself, suggesting the demise of La Nina but not yet turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall/Winter 2018 = 6.5 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino develops as forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes established in the Sept timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +1.0 deg range, there is good probability for enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with an increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (9/17) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific reaching west and continuing to the dateline, then fading to light west winds west of the dateline and over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific, then turning to light east anomalies on the dateline region, then weak west anomalies over the Western KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/18) modest west anomalies were over the core of the Western KWGA but with moderate east anomalies over the dateline. This anomaly pattern is to hold for the next 3 days into 9/21 and then west anomalies are to build in coverage filling the entire KWGA including the dateline by 9/22 and then east to 150W a day later holding till the end of the model run on 9/25.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/17) A neutral MJO signal was over the KWGA. The statistical model depicts that this pattern is to hold and then turn towards the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO on day 5, building and then filling the KWGA 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts a neutral MJO pattern for the next week, then turning towards a Inactive/Dry MJO signal 2 weeks out. The models are diametrically opposed.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/18) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was exceedingly weak over the Indian Ocean and is to be building reaching moderate strength while retrograding west over the Atlantic 2 weeks out pushing towards Africa. The GEFS model depicts basically the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (9/18) This model depicts a very weak Inactive/Dry signal is pushing east over the East Pacific and is to push into Central America on 9/26 while a very weak Active/Wet pattern is developing in the West Pacific today making slow east headway reaching the East Pacific 10/13. A weak Inactive pattern is to be then develop over the far West Pacific on 10/13 pushing east to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 10/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/17) This model depicts moderate plus west anomalies over the central KWGA today but with weak east anomalies over the dateline region. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to build to strong status over the next week in the Central KWGA while east anomalies on the dateline slowly fade. By 9/25 moderate west anomalies are to start filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 10/15. It seems that El Nino is trying to take root, but not coupled yet.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/18) This model depicts a dead weak Inactive/Dry MJO signal over the western KWGA with weak west wind anomalies in play over the west KWGA with neutral anomalies over the dateline. This pattern is to hold for 2-3 days then west anomalies are to rebuild filling the KWGA even as a weak Inactive Phase builds and hold through 10/18 with west anomalies building to WWB status 10/10 and holding. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to take root 10/19 with WWB winds holding till 10/22. Another weak Inactive Phase is to develop 11/7-11/21 but west anomalies holding and building to WWB status 11/23-12/7. West anomalies to continue to the end of the model run on 12/16. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 125W at 3 contour lines and is to hold solid through the end of the model run building east to 120W (over California) by 10/2 and to 115W in mid-October. A 4th contour line is expected developing starting 11/29 and holding through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias has dissolved south of California (9/11) and is to not return and is instead to start building over the Indian Ocean on 10/4 reaching 2 contour lines on 10/2. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias in the Pacific Ocean though were originally thought to reach that state 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8) or on 8/8. But the coupling is developing a bit less aggressively than expected. It's not clear when full coupling will occur, though we're now tempted to say not until mid to late Oct. This pattern is slowly becoming more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/18) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs solid and migrating east now to 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady today at 160W. It started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 moving to 163W on 8/10 then started moving east again reaching to 158W on 8/16 due to development of Kelvin Wave #2 under the West Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was 125 meters deep at 140W but had retracted from the coast of Ecuador and was breaching the surface at 108W, slowly moving east again. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave #1 are gone with a generalized pattern of 1-2 degree anomalies in the far East equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador. To the west warm anomalies are building indicative of the new Kelvin Wave (#2) at +4 degs centered under 145W down 150 meters and with a finger of +1.0 degs anomalies reaching east to Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/10 indicates remnants of the first Kelvin Wave are still holding over a shallow area in the East Pacific from 110W eastward to 95W at +1.5 degs. Of more interest the Second Kelvin Wave was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline at +3.5 degs reaching east to 120W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there into Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 120W continuously to 160E. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/10) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and dateline and broad in coverage east to 130W at +5-15 cms indicative of a new Kelvin Wave (#2) building and pushing east. East of there it weakened some with 5 cms anomalies continuing solid to 110W and then in a pocket at 100W, but not reaching Ecuador but close. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/17) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were biased cool along the outer coast of Peru and Chile, but warming directly nearshore. A thin stream of warm anomalies were holding directly over the equator from Ecuador westward to 160W. Generic warm anomalies were north of there from Central America and south of Mexico building out to Hawaii. A small pocket of persistent cool upwelling was still on the equator near 110W but shrinking in coverage. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/17): An elongated area of pockets of alternating warming and cooling were strung along the equator from the Galapagos to 140W indicative of the end of Kelvin Wave #1's eruption coupled with pockets of easterly anomalies supporting cool upwelling, though the balance was towards cooling temps. Temps were neutral along the coasts of Chile and Peru.
Hi-res Overview: (9/17) A pocket of weak cool water was present along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Of interest was mild warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos out to the dateline with imbedded pockets of of cool anomalies, the strongest one at 115W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/18) Today's temps are falling from a peak of +0.510 degs on 9/17, falling to +0.252 degs. The previous other big peak occurred at +0.459 on 5/13. Otherwise temps have been steady in the -0.50 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/18) Today temps were falling steadily at -0.043 degs or just below neutral, down from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Overall temps are slowly and steadily fading from the +0.25 degs range the past month.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/18) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising Oct 1 to +0.80 degs and to +1.25 degs in early Nov holding through April 2019 then slowly fading through May 2019 down to +0.95 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Aug Plume depicts temps at +0.45 degs in August (predicted at +0.6 last month) and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.8 in October (unchanged from last months forecast) and +0.9 in Nov and holding there into Jan 2019, then slowly fading to 0.7 in April. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (9/18): The daily index was falling today at -6.71. The 30 day average was falling some today at -3.72 suggesting the MJO was holding. The 90 day average was rising at -3.07. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (9/18) Today the index continued falling to -0.27. It fell below it's all time recent high of +0.24 on 9/8. The reading from 8/14 (+0.11) was the first time it's turned positive in a year. But this recent turn to negative suggest that perhaps La Nina is not gone. In reality, we're in ENSO neutral state now and it's not unexpected that the Index will toggle between weakly positive to weakly negative. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.88, July -0.23. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table