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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, September 10, 2017 8:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/11 thru Sun 9/17

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Northwest Pacific Swell Fading
Models Tease of Another Gulf Gale

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Sunday, September 10, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with northwest windswell 1.6 ft @ 10.0 secs from 283 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 69.6 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 195 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 213 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 216 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 18.5 secs from 199 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with Northwest Pacific swell 2.8 @ 14.1 secs from 296 degrees with local windswell 5.2 ft @ 8.1 secs intermixed. Wind at the buoy was northwest 12-14 kts. Water temp 63.5 degs.
    Notes

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/10) in North and Central CA swell from the Northwest Pacific of Kamchatka was combining with local windswell to produce surf at head high to 1 ft overhead and clean, but a bit wonky. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean. At Santa Cruz the same northwest swell was wrapping in producing set waves waist to chest high and clean but wonky from tide and fogged in. In Southern California up north waves were flat to knee high and textured. In North Orange Co mixed swell was producing waves to maybe waist high and clean early. In South Orange Co sets at top spots were waist high and clean. In San Diego surf was waist high and clean and unremarkable. Hawaii's North Shore was getting Northwest Pacific swell with waves shoulder to head high at top spots and clean and lined up. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and pretty warbled from southeast trades. The East Shore was knee high and lightly chopped from light east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/7) swell was hitting Hawaii and California from a tropical system that was in the far West Pacific tracking north generating 40 ft seas aimed northeast Sat-Sun (9/3) then turned east just south of the Aleutians late Mon (9/4) with seas fading from 33 ft, fading out over the North Dateline region Tues (9/5) with seas dropping from 30 ft. Down south a gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed (9/6) with 40 ft barely in the CA swell window but all aimed east. Low odds of anything resulting for the United States. Beyond a gale is forecast for the Gulf of Alaska on Sun 99/17) with 35 ft seas aimed southeast. Something to monitor. The South Pacific is asleep with no change forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (9/10) the jetstream was running generally flat east on the 45N latitude line tracking off off North Japan ridging slightly over the dateline then falling into something that almost looked like a trough in the Gulf but being fed by only 100 kts winds, offering little support for gale development, then ridging northeast pushing up into North British Columbia. Over the next 72 hours
the same basic pattern is to hold with the Gulf trough trying to do something on Tues (9/12) but getting cut off before anything interesting happens. After that the jet is to split over the Gulf while winds starting building over the dateline to 130 kts on Wed (9/13). Beyond 72 hours the pocket of wind energy is to continue building on the dateline Thurs (9/14) with winds to 150 kts and up to 170 kts by Sat (9/16) starting to carve out a nice trough in the Central Gulf tracking slowly east into early Mon (9/18) offering good support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/10) swell associated with a tropical system that tracked north off Japan and then turned east while fading was still hitting Hawaii and California (see Extratropical Storm Sanvu below). Otherwise no local fetch was in play relative to either Hawaii or California capable of generating local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell production is forecast with a generally light pressure and wind pattern forecast. On Wed (9/13) weak high pressure is to be ridging into North CA possible setting up a small area of 25 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino starting to produce minimal north local windswell for North and Central CA. But even that is to be weak and small.

there some suggesting of a weak low pressure system building 900 nmiles north of Hawaii on Mon-Tues (9/11) producing 20-25 kt northeast winds possible setting up small windswell for Hawaii beyond. But odds of swell resulting are low.

No trades of interest are forecast east of the Hawaiian Islands either.

 

Extratropical Storm Sanvu
On Saturday (9/2) Sanvu was 300 nmiles east-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 55 kts tracking north-northeast at 20 kts producing 30 ft seas at 33N 147E. This system continued tracking north-northeast for the next few days with winds 55 kts Sat PM and seas increasing to 40 ft at 37N 151E. On Sun AM (9/3) winds were fading from 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 42N 156E, then fading in the evening with winds 40-45 kts and turning more westerly with seas fading from 31 ft at 46N 160E. Mon AM (9/4) Sanvu turned to the east with winds from the west at 40 kts and seas 35 ft at 50N 159E aimed east (barely unshadowed by the Aleutians on the 308 degree track to NCal) then turning fully east in the evening with west winds 40 kts and seas 33 ft at 49N 166E and barely unshadowed relative to the US West Coast and aimed too far east to be of much use to Hawaii. More of the same is forecast Tues AM (9/5) with west winds fading from 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 49N 172E (308 degrees NCal). A quick fade to follow. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell fading Sun (9/10) from 2.3 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Sun (9/10) from 2.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (9/11) from 2.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft).Swell Direction: 296-308 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were occurring and none were forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sun (9/10) a modest pressure gradient was generating 25 kt north winds over North CA with an eddy flow south of Pt Reyes. That fetch is to be lifting north and fading from 25 kts Mon AM (9/11) only on the Oregon-CA border with an eddy flow south of there. Light winds to be in control of the state Tuesday (9/12) until a small and weak gradient starts building over Cape Mendocino Wed (9/13) at 20-25 kts reaching down to San Francisco Thurs (9/14) and to Pt Conception Fri (9/15) at 20 kts and up to 25 kts over North CA. The gradient is to retract north to Pt Reyes Sat AM (9/16) at 20+ kts and then 15 kts on Sun (9/17) limited to North CA.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
On Sunday (9/10) no southern hemi swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii. Otherwise a tiny swell from the far Southeast Pacific was pushing north (see Southeast Pacific Storm below). Swell in the Tasman Sea was pushing towards Fiji and then Hawaii but well filtered (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Storm
A gale started building in the far Southeast Pacific on Tues AM (9/5) with a small area of 45 kt south winds developing and seas building. In the evening a storm developed building rapidly with winds near 60 kts from the southwest and seas 41 ft over a tiny area at 54S 118W. On Wed AM (9/6) the storm raced east with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 47 ft at 51S 106W totally out of the SCal swell window aimed mainly at Southern Chile. This system raced east from there in the evening and of no interest to our forecast area. Small swell is expected to radiate north possibly setting up some south angled swell for California.

Southern CA: Expect swell on Wed (9/13) at 1.1 ft @ 18 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/14) from 1.1 ft @ 16 secs 1.5-2.0 ft. Swell Direction: 180 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
Also a gale was developing in the West Tasman Sea just east of Tasmania Thurs AM (9/7) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening 45-50 kt southwest winds tracked east over a tiny area with seas building to 32 ft at 49S 156E. On Fri AM (9/8) 40-45 kt southwest winds were approaching the south coast of New Zealand with 36 ft seas at 46S 160E. This system moved inland after that with seas fading from 30 ft at 44S 162E in the evening. Moderate swell is pushing towards Fiji with filtered swell possibly radiating past there towards Hawaii.

Fiji: Expect swell arrival on Mon (9/11) 12z GMT at 6 ft @ 17 secs (10 ft Hawaiian) building to 8.4 ft @ 16 secs (13 ft Hawaiian) near 0Z Tues (9/12). Swell slowly fading from there down to 8.4 ft @ 15 secs (12.5 ft Hawaiian) near 12z on Tuesday and down from there. Swell Direction: 205 degrees

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (9/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (9/17) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours low pressure is to develop off North Japan on Tues (9/12) tracking fast to the east. It is to reach the Gulf of Alaska on Fri PM (9/15) starting to building with a growing fetch of 25 kt northwest winds forecast. By Sat AM (9/16) winds are to build to 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas on the increase. By evening fetch is to start growing from the Eastern Aleutians southeastward at 40-45 kts with seas building to 22 ft up at 52N 157W. On Sun AM (9/17) winds to build to 50 kts falling southeast with seas 34 ft at 50N 154W. Fetch is to fall southeast in the evening and fading from 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 45N 150W (298 degs NCal). Fetch and seas fading from there. Something to monitor but not believable at this early date.

Otherwise a local fetch of north winds are to continue along the North CA coast on Thurs (9/14) at 25 kts building in coverage on Fri (9/15) at 25 kts with 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception, then backing off Sat (9/16) from 20 kts over all of North CA dissipating early Sun (9/17) as a broad gale builds in the Gulf of Alaska with a front pushing to within 300 nmiles of North CA. Some small windswell is possible Thurs-Sat (9/16) for North and Central CA.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

MJO Non-existent - La Nina Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sat (9/9) the 5 day average indicated east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were moderate easterly in pockets over the East Pacific and also over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/10) Strong east anomalies were modeled starting to develop over the core of the KWGA. East anomalies are to building filling the East KWGA by 9/13 holding through the end of the model run on 9/16. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to again start asserting itself, refueling La Nina, or La Nina is to pulse.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 9/9 a neutral MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a neutral pattern to continue for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/10) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO weak and incoherent and is forecast to stay that way. The GEFS model depicts the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model: (9/10) This model depicts the Inactive/Dry Phase was over the Central Pacific tracking east expected to reach Central America on 10/10. A neutral pattern is to follow through the end of the model run 10/20. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (9/10) This model depicts a very weak version of the Inactive Phase of the MJO fading over the KWGA with modest east wind anomalies over the far West Pacific. Those anomalies are to hold as the Inactive Phase tracks east over the West Pacific 9/10-9/25. After that a very weak version of the Active Phase of the MJO is to return starting 10/12 with weak west anomalies in control through 11/5. Then the Inactive Phase starts redeveloping the West Pacific 10/30 with neutral anomalies biased weak westerly early holding through 12/8 with east anomalies starting to develop. The low pass filter indicates a very weak La Nina signal is in control of the KWGA and is to hold till 9/29, then building in coverage while drifting east and out of the KWGA by the end of November. There's some sense the pattern is to start shifting east early November entirely east of the dateline. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/10) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps were depicted at 30 degs centered at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line has stabilized at 165W. The 24 deg isotherm is retrograding to 128W and at 75 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and turning neutral to weakly negative +0.0 to -1.0 degs indicative of La Nina while +1.0 degree anomalies build in coverage in the West Pacific at 125 meters deep. The dividing line between cool and warm is at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/5 depicts the same thing, but with more cool water east and less warm water in the west. It looks like the cool water pocket is poised to erupt to the surface in the equatorial East Pacific in few weeks while east winds are pushing all warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific to the West Pacific. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/5) Negative anomalies hold stable coverage at -5 cms from 165W to Ecuador with a few small -10 cm anomalies interspersed suggesting a cool pool at depth.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed with weak upwelling nearshore along Peru and Ecuador tracking northwest over the Galapagos and then flowing steadily west from there on the equator and well defined out to 160W. There is no breaks in the cool stream over this entire area. This looks very much like a classic La Nina signature. Cooling in the heart of the Nino3.4 region is building.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/9): A neutral temperature trend is along Peru then trending cool off Ecuador and out over the Galapagos building much stronger cool out to 160W. There are few if any remaining interspersed warmer pockets from the Galapagos westward. La Nina is pulsing making solid headway.
Hi-res Overview:
(9/9) A clear La Nina cool stream is present on the equator from Peru up to Ecuador (light cool) then stronger from the Galapagos west to 180W and moderate strong and building in the region between 90-140W. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions. If anything the stream of cooler water associated with nearshore upwelling just off Peru northwest to the Galapagos is building in the past few days. Otherwise waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal other than the aforementioned stream. We now assert that climatology needs to be updated to reflect the new reality of warming ocean temperatures over the entire planet.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/10) Today's temps were rising some at -0.206, down from a warm peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2 and +0.6 degs on 6/20. 
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (9/10) temps were falling at -0.857, down from +0.5 degs where it was consistently through 7/18. A clear downward trend is indicated.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/10) The forecast has temps falling steadily from neutral (0.0 degs) in early Aug to -0.85 in early Oct and down from there to -1.45 in late Dec. Then the trend is to turn upwards rebounding to -0.25 in April 2018. This is yet another upgrade in the strength of La Nina and suggests a legit La Nina now forecast for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (8/28) continues to suggest a weak La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos in Sept and building steadily into Dec/Jan 2018. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Aug Plume updated (8/20) depicts temps forecast to fade 0.0 degs in Aug, and are to hold there solid through Feb 2018 suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temps -0.01 degrees below normal through Jan. last month both models depicted temps at +0.3 degs above normal through the Winter. So this is a significant downgrade.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (9/10): The daily index was positive at +11.41, and has been nearly continuous positive for months now. The 30 day average was rising at 7.03. The 90 day average was rising at +2.74. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions trending towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (9/5) This index has not been updated since 9/5. At that time the value was falling at -1.27 (up from -2.20 on 6/28) but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina. A supposed peak of this La Nina was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94 (last year) . So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July=-0.41. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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